A methodology for long-range prediction of air transportation

A framework and methodology for long term projection of demand for aviation fuels is presented. The approach taken includes two basic components. The first was a new technique for establishing the socio-economic environment within which the future aviation industry is embedded. The concept utilized was a definition of an overall societal objective for the very long run future. Within a framework so defined, a set of scenarios by which the future will unfold are then written. These scenarios provide the determinants of the air transport industry operations and accordingly provide an assessment of future fuel requirements. The second part was the modeling of the industry in terms of an abstracted set of variables to represent the overall industry performance on a macro scale. The model was validated by testing the desired output variables from the model with historical data over the past decades

A Unified Term for Directed and Undirected Motility in Collective Cell Invasion

In this paper we develop mathematical models for collective cell motility. Initially we develop a model using a linear diffusion-advection type equation and fit the parameters to data from cell motility assays. This approach is helpful in classifying the results of cell motility assay experiments. In particular, this model can determine degrees of directed versus undirected collective cell motility. Next we develop a model using a nonlinear diffusion term that is able capture in a unified way directed and undirected collective cell motility. Finally we apply the nonlinear diffusion approach to a problem in tumor cell invasion, noting that neither chemotaxis or haptotaxis are present in the system under consideration in this article

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption

The Role of Osteocytes in Targeted Bone Remodeling: A Mathematical Model

Until recently many studies of bone remodeling at the cellular level have focused on the behavior of mature osteoblasts and osteoclasts, and their respective precursor cells, with the role of osteocytes and bone lining cells left largely unexplored. This is particularly true with respect to the mathematical modeling of bone remodeling. However, there is increasing evidence that osteocytes play important roles in the cycle of targeted bone remodeling, in serving as a significant source of RANKL to support osteoclastogenesis, and in secreting the bone formation inhibitor sclerostin. Moreover, there is also increasing interest in sclerostin, an osteocyte-secreted bone formation inhibitor, and its role in regulating local response to changes in the bone microenvironment. Here we develop a cell population model of bone remodeling that includes the role of osteocytes, sclerostin, and allows for the possibility of RANKL expression by osteocyte cell populations. This model extends and complements many of the existing mathematical models for bone remodeling but can be used to explore aspects of the process of bone remodeling that were previously beyond the scope of prior modeling work. Through numerical simulations we demonstrate that our model can be used to theoretically explore many of the most recent experimental results for bone remodeling, and can be utilized to assess the effects of novel bone-targeting agents on the bone remodeling process

Towards a New Spatial Representation of Bone Remodeling

Irregular bone remodeling is associated with a number of bone diseases such as osteoporosis and multiple myeloma. Computational and mathematical modeling can aid in therapy and treatment as well as understanding fundamental biology. Different approaches to modeling give insight into different aspects of a phenomena so it is useful to have an arsenal of various computational and mathematical models. Here we develop a mathematical representation of bone remodeling that can effectively describe many aspects of the complicated geometries and spatial behavior observed. There is a sharp interface between bone and marrow regions. Also the surface of bone moves in and out, i.e. in the normal direction, due to remodeling. Based on these observations we employ the use of a level-set function to represent the spatial behavior of remodeling. We elaborate on a temporal model for osteoclast and osteoblast population dynamics to determine the change in bone mass which influences how the interface between bone and marrow changes. We exhibit simulations based on our computational model that show the motion of the interface between bone and marrow as a consequence of bone remodeling. The simulations show that it is possible to capture spatial behavior of bone remodeling in complicated geometries as they occur \emph{in vitro} and \emph{in vivo}. By employing the level set approach it is possible to develop computational and mathematical representations of the spatial behavior of bone remodeling. By including in this formalism further details, such as more complex cytokine interactions and accurate parameter values, it is possible to obtain simulations of phenomena related to bone remodeling with spatial behavior much as \emph{in vitro} and \emph{in vivo}. This makes it possible to perform \emph{in silica} experiments more closely resembling experimental observations.Comment: Math. Biosci. Eng., 9(2), 201

STUDI PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN PENYULANG BARU UNTUK PEMBAGIAN BEBAN PENYULANG SAHANG 1 DAN RAYA 17 PT PLN (PERSERO) ULP SIANTAN

Kebutuhan akan energi listrik yang semkain meningkat membuat PT PLN (Persero) selaku penyedia tenaga listrik harus bisa memenuhi kebutuhan pelanggan dan harus menjaga kehandalan serta kontinuitas suplai energi listrik. Penelitian ini mengenai kondisi penyulang Sahang 1 dan Raya 17 pada PLN ULP Siantan UP3 Pontianak memiliki pembebanan yang berat dan panjangnya  penyulang membuat drop tegangan dan susut kWh yang hilang semakin besar. Adanya penambahan daya pada pelanggan industri yang disuplai dari penyulang Raya 17 serta pengembangan dibidang pemerintahan di daerah Sui Ambawang Siantan membuat PLN sebagai penyedia satu-satunya dalam bidang kelistrikan harus mampu melayani pelanggan dengan baik. Untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut dibuat perencanaan mengenai penambahan penyulang baru dengan dibangun gardu hubung (GH) untuk meningkatkan keandalan dan kontinuitas pelayanan listrik di ULP Siantan. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan dan simulasi menggunakan software Etap 12.6 didapat hasil drop tegangan yang awalnya 14% menjadi dibawah 5% dan susut kWh yang awalnya 18% menjadi dibawah 5% untuk setiap penyulang yang telah dilakukan pembagian beban. Biaya investasi yang dikeluarkan untuk pembangunan penyulang baru dengan GH sebesar 42 milyar dengan pay back period (PP) atau pengembalian modal selama 1,62 tahun  dan provitability index (PI) atau perhitungan keuntungan proyek adalah 4 kali selama 25 tahun masa proyek

Approximating Solutions for Ginzburg – Landau Equation by HPM and ADM

In this paper, an analytical approximation to the solution of Ginzburg-Landauis discussed. A Homotopy perturbation method introduced by He is employed to derive the analytic approximation solution and results compared with those of the Adomian decomposition method. Two examples are presented to show the capability of the methods. The results reveal that the methods are almost equally effective and promising

Modeling and Simulation of the Effects of Cyclic Loading on Articular Cartilage Lesion Formation

We present a model of articular cartilage lesion formation to simulate the effects of cyclic loading. This model extends and modifies the reaction-diffusion-delay model by Graham et al. 2012 for the spread of a lesion formed though a single traumatic event. Our model represents "implicitly" the effects of loading, meaning through a cyclic sink term in the equations for live cells. Our model forms the basis for in silico studies of cartilage damage relevant to questions in osteoarthritis, for example, that may not be easily answered through in vivo or in vitro studies. Computational results are presented that indicate the impact of differing levels of EPO on articular cartilage lesion abatement

Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program