The Last Colony: Theoretical Explanations on the Protractedness of the Western Sahara Conflict

“There has never been a protracted war from which a country has benefited” (Tzu 1963: 73). The forty-eight yearlong Western Sahara conflict over the former Spanish colony between Polisario and the Kingdom of Morocco continues its low prospects of resolution. The future of the territory, with both strategic geopolitical and financial relevance, remains uncertain in which the reasons for the continued prolongation appear to be many. Different conflict theories emphasise various factors causing protractedness, suggesting that many different causes, together, have engendered the current lack of settlement. Whilst the theory of protracted social conflicts emphasises developed high-tensioned, hostile relations between the conflicting parties as one factor causing protractedness, the theory of enduring rivalries suggests the lack of a major political shock can hinder the termination of conflicts. The general theory of proxy warfare postulates that external support and supply provide the conflicting parties with an added means to continue fighting, whereas the zero-sum game implies the disputing parties’ fear of losing full control over the objective to the opposing party keeps the conflict going no matter the length and costs. These four theories, together, provide significant justifications for the conflict’s prolongation, however, lack the scope to fully explain its unusual endurance. The Western Sahara conflict, therefore, seemingly demands a number of conflict theories to explain its long duration and lack of conflict resolution. The dynamic nature of the drivers of the Western Sahara conflict consequently demonstrates that war can persevere as a result of tensions caused by war

Transitions in European land-management regimes between 1800 and 2010

Land use is a cornerstone of human civilization, but also intrinsically linked to many global sustainability challenges-from climate change to food security to the ongoing biodiversity crisis. Understanding the underlying technological, institutional and economic drivers of land-use change, and how they play out in different environmental, socio-economic and cultural contexts, is therefore important for identifying effective policies to successfully address these challenges. In this regard, much can be learned from studying long-term land-use change. We examined the evolution of European land management over the past 200 years with the aim of identifying (1) key episodes of changes in land management, and (2) their underlying technological, institutional and economic drivers. To do so, we generated narratives elaborating on the drivers of land use-change at the country level for 28 countries in Europe. We qualitatively grouped drivers into land-management regimes, and compared changes in management regimes across Europe. Our results allowed discerning seven land-management regimes, and highlighted marked heterogeneity regarding the types of management regimes occurring in a particular country, the timing and prevalence of regimes, and the conditions that result in observed bifurcations. However, we also found strong similarities across countries in the timing of certain land-management regime shifts, often in relation to institutional reforms (e.g., changes in EU agrarian policies or the emergence and collapse of the Soviet land management paradigm) or to technological innovations (e.g., drainage pipes, tillage and harvesting machinery, motorization, and synthetic fertilizers). Land reforms frequently triggered changes in land management, and the location and timing of reforms had substantial impacts on land-use outcomes. Finally, forest protection policies and voluntary cooperatives were important drivers of land-management changes. Overall, our results demonstrate that land-system changes should not be conceived as unidirectional developments following predefined trajectories, but rather as path-dependent processes that may be affected by various drivers, including sudden events.</p