Predator-prey interactions in anthropogenic landscapes

Tre av fire artikler er fjernet fra den digitale versjonen, grunnet uklarhet om rettigheter. De kan leses i den trykte versjonen./ Three out of four articles have been removed from the digital version due to copyright. They can be read in the printed version.Interaksjoner mellom rovdyr og byttedyr er basert på flere faktorer, inkludert habitat og rovdyrets jaktmodus. Innenfor menneskepåvirkede landskap kan mennesker omforme interaksjoner mellom rovdyr og byttedyr ved å påvirke deres tetthet, atferd og overlevelse gjennom aktiviteter som jakt, skogsbruk og arealbruk. I menneskepåvirkede systemer er jakt den viktigste dødsårsaken for mange byttedyr, men med tilbakekomsten av store rovdyr står nå byttedyr overfor ytterligere dødlighetsrisiko. Målene med denne oppgaven var å 1) undersøke plasseringen av jegerdrepte og ulvedrepte elg i landskapet under og etter jaktsesongen og vurdere om det resulterte i kontrasterende eller overlappende spatio-temporære risikomønstre for elg; 2) undersøke elgers habitatvalg i forhold til fordelingen av jakt- og ulvpredasjonsrisiko i tid og rom; 3) undersøke dødeligheten til elgkalv sommer og vinter i forhold til risiko fra både mennesker og store rovdyr (ulver og brunbjørn), og klimatiske og miljømessige faktorer (produktivitet og snødybde); og 4) vurdere om ulvens tilbakekomst hadde forårsaket enten tetthets- eller atferdsutløste trofiske kaskader som involverte elg og deres viktigste fødeart, furu. For å gjøre dette har det Skandinaviske ulveforskningsprosjektet (SKANDULV) og GRENSEVILT-prosjektet innhentet lokaliseringer av elg drept av jegere og utstyrt både elg og ulv med Global Positioning System (GPS) halsbånd for å søke etter bytterester og innhente data om elgens habitatvalg om sommeren, høsten (dvs. jaktsesongen) og vinteren (dvs. etter jaktsesongen). I tillegg ble merkede elgkuer oppsøkt til fots i felt tre ganger i løpet av året (ved fødsel, ved starten av jaktsesongen og like før kalvenes spredning om vårenkalvespredning) for å telle antall kalver. Spatiotemporale Den romlige og tidsmessige variasjonen for jakt og predasjonsrisiko var korrelert med ulike naturlige og menneskeskapte faktorer. Jaktrisikoen var høyest nær åpne områder (f.eks. hogstflater og myrer) og veier, samt områder med lav bygningstetthet og liten grad av ulendt terreng. Ulvpredasjonsrisiko varierte tidsmessig og var høyest nær hogstflater/ungskog, lenger unna myr og i områder med lav bygningstetthet i jaktsesongen. Etter jaktsesongen var ulvepredasjonsrisikoen fortsatt høyest nærmere hogstflater/ungskog og i områder med lav bygningstetthet, men også nær hovedveier og i mer ulendt terreng. Når jeg sammenlignet de romlige egenskapene til jeger- og ulvedrept elg, fant jeg motsatte risikomønstre fra jegere og ulv. I løpet av jaktsesongen unngikk elgen områder med høy jaktrisiko på dagtid, mens habitatvalget deres ble ikke påvirket av jaktrisiko om natten. Etter jaktsesongen ble ikke elgens habitatvalg 6 påvirket av jaktrisiko verken på dag eller nattestid. Elg valgte områder med høy ulvepredasjonsrisiko både dag og natt under og etter jaktsesongen. Elgkalvdødeligheten om sommeren varierte betydelig mellom år, men var ikke relatert til verken predasjon fra ulv eller bjørn, klimatiske eller miljømessige variabler. Om vinteren var kalvedødeligheten positivt korrelert til snødybde og flatehogst/ungskog med nærvær av ulv, men også til økt jaktrisiko. Forekomst og tetthet av elg, samt beiteskader, var positivt korrelert til forekomst av ulv. Samlet sett var miljømessige og menneskeskapte faktorer viktigere for å forklare elgforekomst og beiteskader enn ulveforekomst. Selv om ulv ikke drepte elg tilfeldig i landskapet og at deres tilstedeværelse resulterte i en positiv korrelasjon mellom kalvedødelighet og visse landskapstrekk, oppdaget jeg ingen tegn til at elg unngikk områder eller perioder med høyere risiko. Følgelig ser det ut til at ulver ikke har fremkalt verken tetthets- eller atferdsutløste trofiske kaskader i det sør-sentrale Skandinavia. Resultatene mine tilsier at mens både jakt- og predasjonsrisiko varierte i tid og rom, responderte elg bare på jakt, som utgjør en større, men også mer forutsigbar risiko enn ulv. I løpet av det siste århundret har menneskers jakttradisjon på den Skandinaviske halvøy funksjonelt erstattet predasjon av ulv og bjørn på elg. Med tilbakekomsten av ulv justerte jegerne sine jaktkvoter på elg for å kompensere for den additive dødeligheten fra ulv. Elgens atferdsjustering på jaktrisiko kan tilsi at mennesker kan forårsake både tetthets- og atferdsutløste trofiske kaskader i menneskeskapte landskap. Ulver fremkalte derimot ikke atferdsresponser hos elg, som tilsier at elgen unngår risikofylte steder i risikofylte tider, og utløste heller ikke kaskadeeffekter på lavere trofiske nivåer. Den reduserte tilgjengeligheten av matressurser om vinteren kan tvinge elgen til å velge habitater med bedre næringstilgang som samtidig er kombinert med en større risiko for ulvepredasjon (f.eks. flatehogst/ungskog). Derfor kan ulvens potensiale til å sette i gang trofiske kaskader bli dempet, eller til og med kansellert, av elgens behov for næringstilgang om vinteren.ABSTRACT: Predator-prey interactions are shaped by several factors, including landscape features and hunting modes of predators. Within anthropogenic landscapes, humans can reshape predator prey interactions by influencing the density, behaviour and survival of both predators and prey through activities such as hunting, forestry practices and land use. Understanding the role that humans play within ecological communities is becoming increasingly important as large carnivores are recolonizing parts of their historical ranges. In anthropogenic systems, harvest is the main mortality source for many ungulate prey populations, and with the return of large carnivores, ungulates now face mortality risk from multiple sources. The objectives of this thesis were to: 1) assess the spatial attributes of hunter-killed and wolf (Canis lupus)-killed moose (Alces alces) during and after the hunting season and determine whether it resulted in contrasting or overlapping spatiotemporal patterns of risk for moose; 2) investigate habitat selection of moose in relation to the spatiotemporal distribution of hunting and wolf predation risk; 3) evaluate moose calf mortality during summer and winter in relation to risk from both humans and large carnivores (wolves and brown bears, [Ursus arctos]) and climatic and environmental variables (productivity and snow depth); and 4) assess whether the return of wolves had elicited either density- or behaviourally-mediated trophic cascades involving moose and their main browsing species, Scots pine. In order to do so, the Scandinavian Wolf Research Project (SKANDULV) and GRENSEVILT project obtained the locations of moose killed by hunters and fitted both moose and wolves with Global Positioning System (GPS) collars to search for kill sites and obtain data on moose habitat selection during summer, fall (i.e., the hunting season) and winter (i.e., after the hunting season). Additionally, female moose were approached three times during the year (at birth, at the onset of the hunting season and just before calf dispersal) from the ground to count the number of accompanying calves. Spatiotemporal patterns of hunting and predation risk correlated to both environmental and anthropogenic features. Hunting risk was highest close to open spaces (e.g., clearcuts and bogs) and roads and in areas with low building density and low terrain ruggedness. Wolf predation risk varied temporally and was highest close to clearcuts/young forests, further away from bogs and in areas of low building density during the hunting season. After the hunting season, wolf predation risk was still highest closer to clearcuts/young forests and in areas of low building 4 density, but also close to main roads and in more rugged terrain. When comparing the spatial characteristics of hunter-killed and wolf-killed moose, I found contrasting risk patterns from hunters and wolves. During the hunting season, moose avoided areas of high hunting risk during the day, while their habitat selection was not affected by hunting risk at night. After the hunting season, moose habitat selection was not influenced by hunting risk during the day or at night. Moose selected areas of high wolf predation risk during both day and night during and after the hunting season. Moose calf mortality in summer varied significantly between years but was not related to predation, climatic or environmental variables. In winter, calf mortality correlated positively to snow depth and clearcuts/young forests in the presence of wolves and increased hunting risk. Moose presence and abundance and browsing damage were positively correlated to the presence of wolves. Overall, environmental and anthropogenic features were more important in explaining moose presence and browsing damage than wolf presence. Although wolves did not kill moose randomly in the landscape and their presence resulted in a positive correlation between calf mortality and certain landscape features, I did not detect a behavioural response in moose consistent with the avoidance of places and times of higher risk. Consequently, wolves seem to not have elicited either density- or behaviourally-mediated trophic cascades in south-central Scandinavia. My results indicate that while both hunting and wolf predation risk varied spatiotemporally, moose responded only to the stronger, more predictable mortality source: hunting. During the last century in Scandinavia, hunting has functionally replaced predation by wolves and bears on moose. With the return of wolves, hunters adjusted their harvest quotas on moose to compensate for the additive mortality of wolves. Because moose adjusted their behavioural response to hunting risk, this may indicate that humans might have the potential to trigger both density- and behaviourally-mediated trophic cascades within anthropogenic landscapes. On the other hand, wolves did not elicit behavioural responses in moose consistent with the avoidance of risky places during risky times, nor triggered cascading effects on lower trophic levels. The decreased availability of food resources during winter may force moose to select habitats with greater forage opportunities that are simultaneously coupled with a greater risk of wolf predation (e.g., clearcuts/young forests). Hence, the potential for wolves to initiate trophic cascades might be dampened, or even cancelled, by the need for moose to find optimal foraging places during winter  publishedVersio

Teenage codependency: A social worker\u27s perspective

This research project explores social workers\u27 definitions of codependency, assessment of codependency, and types of interventions for codependency, particularly among youth. Learning more about codependent treatment for young clients and families will aid practitioners and mental health workers to focus on appropriate assessment and treatment for teens and families rather than stereotyping and denying them resources and coping strategies

Numerical Evaluation of Natural Periods and Mode Shapes of Earth Dams for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Applications

The evaluation of natural periods and related mode shapes of earth dams represents a critical issue when performing structure-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). The identification of critical scenario events, using techniques such as disaggregation of the seismic hazard, and the calculation of a suitable target spectrum for ground motion selection and scaling procedures (e.g., the conditional mean spectrum), require at least the knowledge of the fundamental period of the system. This problem can be solved using analytical, numerical, and/or empirical techniques. We present several linear elastic modal analyses for an earth dam located in Southern Italy, using a numerical solution of the generalized eigenvalue problem obtained by the finite element method (FEM). Our numerical experiments are performed, testing various assumptions on boundary conditions, degree of saturation, and the distribution of geotechnical characteristics of the dam's materials. We then compare our results against existing analytical solutions. We show that ignoring soil–structure interaction effects due to the flexibility of the dam foundation (i.e., under the assumption of fixed base) can lead to a substantial underestimation of the fundamental period of the dam. This effect should be carefully addressed when modal analysis results are used in PSHA-related applications

The greenhouse gas emissions performance of cellulosic ethanol supply chains in Europe

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Calculating the greenhouse gas savings that may be attributed to biofuels is problematic because production systems are inherently complex and methods used to quantify savings are subjective. Differing approaches and interpretations have fuelled a debate about the environmental merit of biofuels, and consequently about the level of policy support that can be justified. This paper estimates and compares emissions from plausible supply chains for lignocellulosic ethanol production, exemplified using data specific to the UK and Sweden. The common elements that give rise to the greatest greenhouse gas emissions are identified and the sensitivity of total emissions to variations in these elements is estimated. The implications of including consequential impacts including indirect land-use change, and the effects of selecting alternative allocation methods on the interpretation of results are discussed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that the most important factors affecting supply chain emissions are the emissions embodied in biomass production, the use of electricity in the conversion process and potentially consequential impacts: indirect land-use change and fertiliser replacement. The large quantity of electricity consumed during enzyme manufacture suggests that enzymatic conversion processes may give rise to greater greenhouse gas emissions than the dilute acid conversion process, even though the dilute acid process has a somewhat lower ethanol yield.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The lignocellulosic ethanol supply chains considered here all lead to greenhouse gas savings relative to gasoline An important caveat to this is that if lignocellulosic ethanol production uses feedstocks that lead to indirect land-use change, or other significant consequential impacts, the benefit may be greatly reduced.</p> <p>Co-locating ethanol, electricity generation and enzyme production in a single facility may improve performance, particularly if this allows the number of energy intensive steps in enzyme production to be reduced, or if other process synergies are available. If biofuels policy in the EU remains contingent on favourable environmental performance then the multi-scale nature of bioenergy supply chains presents a genuine challenge. Lignocellulosic ethanol holds promise for emission reductions, but maximising greenhouse gas savings will not only require efficient supply chain design but also a better understanding of the spatial and temporal factors which affect overall performance.</p

Sommario

Creta Antica 2S. Todaro, Nuove prospettive sulla produzione in stile Pyrgos nella Creta meridionale: il caso della pisside e della coppa su base ad anello         P. Militello, Amministrazione e contabilità a Festòs. I. Gettoni di età prepalazialeF. Carinci, Per una diversa interpretazione delle kulure nei cortili occidentali dei palazzi minoici            L. Girella, Alcune considerazioni in margine al MM III: Archanes e FestòsO. Palio, I vasi in pietra dai vani 8-11 del palazzo di Festòs                                        D. Puglisi, Il problema degli inizi del TM I nella Messarà alla luce dei nuovi dati da Haghia Triada    N. Cucuzza, Un’altra nota sui mason’s marks     D. Puglisi, Un arsenale marittimo l’Edificio T di Kommos?                                   K. Perna, Rituali funerari e rappresentazione del potere nella Creta del TM IIIA2/B      S. Privitera, I due pithoi globulari di Haghia Triada e la cronologia della ‘Casa dei Vani aggiunti progressivamente’        M. S. Speciale, L’industria dei profumi e l’amministrazione di Cnosso in età micenea                 D. Palermo, Luoghi di culto sulla Patela di Priniàs. Per la storia della città fra la tarda età del Bronzo e il VII sec. a.C.                                                        E. Pappalardo, I bronzi dell’Antro Ideo nel contesto della produzione cretese coeva                     V. La Rosa, C’è dell’altro all’interno della Grande Iscrizione di Gortina? In margine ad un paio di lettere di F. Halbherr                     A. Puleo, Il dio-pesce delle monete di Itanos                                                            M. Melfi, Filostrato, Vita di Apollonio di Tiana IV.34, ed il terremoto di Lebena                                                      V. La Rosa, Il cimitero veneziano di Haghia Triada       E. Ciliberto, Analisi di un frammento di pentola in ceramica di età veneziana proveniente da Haghia Triada         F. Mallegni - F. Bartoli, I resti umani del cimitero veneziano di Haghia Triada (Aspetti demografici, patologici e nutrizionali)    

The commercial performance of cellulosic ethanol supply-chains in Europe

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The production of fuel-grade ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass resources has the potential to increase biofuel production capacity whilst minimising the negative environmental impacts. These benefits will only be realised if lignocellulosic ethanol production can compete on price with conventional fossil fuels and if it can be produced commercially at scale. This paper focuses on lignocellulosic ethanol production in Europe. The hypothesis is that the eventual cost of production will be determined not only by the performance of the conversion process but by the performance of the entire supply-chain from feedstock production to consumption. To test this, a model for supply-chain cost comparison is developed, the components of representative ethanol supply-chains are described, the factors that are most important in determining the cost and profitability of ethanol production are identified, and a detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The most important cost determinants are the cost of feedstocks, primarily determined by location and existing markets, and the value obtained for ethanol, primarily determined by the oil price and policy incentives. Both of these factors are highly uncertain. The best performing chains (ethanol produced from softwood and sold as a low percentage blend with gasoline) could ultimately be cost competitive with gasoline without requiring subsidy, but production from straw would generally be less competitive.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Supply-chain design will play a critical role in determining commercial viability. The importance of feedstock supply highlights the need for location-specific assessments of feedstock availability and price. Similarly, the role of subsidies and policy incentives in creating and sustaining the ethanol market highlights the importance of political engagement and the need to include political risks in investment appraisal. For the supply-chains described here, and with the cost and market parameters selected, selling ethanol as a low percentage blend with gasoline will maximise ethanol revenues and minimise the need for subsidies. It follows, therefore, that the market for low percentage blends should be saturated before markets for high percentage blends.</p

Sommario

Creta Antica 8F. Carinci - V. La Rosa, Revisioni festie                                                                                                                  I. Caloi, Le ollette a secchiello: analisi di una forma vascolare tipica del MM IB di Festòs           L. Girella, Forms of commensal politics in the Neopalatial Crete   D. Puglisi, L’organizzazione a terrazze nel «Villaggio» TM I di Haghia Triada     F. Blakolmer, Die ‘Schnittervase’ von Agia Triada. Zu Narrativität, Mimi Prototypen in der minoischen Bildkunst   M. E. Alberti, The Minoan Textile Industry and the Territory from Neopalatial to Mycenaean Times: sOME First Thoughts V. La Rosa, Un hyppodamos da Festòs nel TM IIIC? D. Palermo - A. Pautasso - S. Rizza - R. Gigli Patanè - K. Perna - G. Biondi, Lo scavo del 2005 sulla Patela di Priniàs. Relazione preliminare    V. La Rosa, Di tradizione cretese alcune tombe protostoriche dell’area etnea?    M. Pagano, Ricerche sull’acquedotto e sulle fontane romane e bizantine di Gortina (Creta) (con presentazione di A. Di Vita)   F. Carinci, Doro Levi and Minoan archaeology (1950-1980). History of a heresy without stakes     

Simplified relationships for estimating seismic slope stability

Eurocode 8 addresses seismic slope stability analysis with reference to limit state design, specifying a 50% re-duction of the peak horizontal inertia force of a potentially sliding mass. Such a coefficient has been shown to depend on several factors, including soil deformability and the frequency content of the seismic action. In this paper the reduction coefficient is expressed with reference to the above factors and compared to EC8 provisions for all soil classes. A simplified design procedure is then suggested by referring to updated correla-tions based on the Newmark sliding block model, including the influence of amplitude, duration and mean pe-riod of the ground motion on the predicted displacement. The reduction coefficient is further generalised to account for the slope ductility, i.e. the capability of sustain prescribed threshold displacements. The whole procedure has been calibrated through analyses carried out using acceleration time histories, selected from a database of records of Italian seismic events, on typical subsoil layering pertaining to the EC8 classes, also adopted by the Italian seismic Code

EVALUATION OF SEISMIC DEMAND FOR EARTHQUAKE-TRIGGERED LANDSLIDES

Landslides are one of the most commonly observed territorial effects after a strong-motion seismic event. Although landslides are considered a secondary hazard to human lives, as compared with the safety of the buildings, they can cause significant damage to infrastructure networks that determine problems in the immediate post-earthquake during the emergency and reconstruction phases. Therefore it is important to calibrate reliable procedures for regional-scale assessment of seismic landslide susceptibility and hazard. The tools available for assessing regional-scale stability of slopes are empirically related to the earthquake intensity, yet they often provide poor useful information for practical purposes. The technical literature proposes several methods that allow for estimating slope performance under dynamic conditions or are able to evaluate effectively the parameters required for the procedures most commonly used in practice. This note briefly outlines the criteria for extending to the regional scale the procedures proposed by Tropeano et al. (2017) for assessing the site-specific performance of slopes during a strong-motion earthquake. A preliminary application is also shown for the main events of 2016 seismic sequence in Central Italy

Non-linear coupled approach for the evaluation of seismic slope displacements

The design procedures to evaluate earthquake-induced sliding displacements typically refer to three different approaches: simplified methods; displacements methods and advanced dynamic methods. In the first class of methods, empirical relationships are used to predict the permanent slope displacement. The second class includes simplified dynamic analysis, by means of the conventional Newmark rigid block model, as well as through its improvements to account for soil deformability. The dynamic site response and the sliding block displacements are computed separately in the “decoupled” approach or simultaneously in the “coupled” analysis (stick-slip model). The advanced dynamic methods are based on finite element (FEM) or finite difference (FDM) formulations, which permit to account for topography and heterogeneity by two or three dimensional analysis. The paper describes the developments of a 1D lumped-mass stick-slip model for a layered subsoil including more generalized assumptions than a previous version (Ausilio et al., 2008). The depth of the sliding surface is considered not necessarily coincident with that of the bedrock, and located in a generic layer. This latter can be identified during the analysis. In the non-linear site response analysis, a recent soil damping formulation was used (Phillips & Hashash, 2009). In this formulation, a reduction factor modifying the extended Masing loading/unloading strain-stress relationship was introduced. The predictions of the coupled stick-slip model with non-linear soil behaviour were compared with the results of the equivalent linear approach for ideal slopes to show the effects of non linearity on seismic performance. Besides, the results show that the sliding surface depth, automatically researched, is function of main ground motion parameters