The Atmospheric Response to Meridional Shifts of the Gulf Stream SST Front and Its Dependence on Model Resolution

The Gulf Stream (GS) plays a key role in shaping the North Atlantic climate. Moreover, the associated sea surface temperature (SST) front undergoes interannual-to-decadal variability that is thought to force significant atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, general circulation models do not accurately reproduce the atmospheric response to SST front variability as estimated from observations. In this work we analyze the atmospheric response to the GS SST front (GSF) shifts in a multimodel ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs (1950-2014). The atmospheric response is found to be resolution dependent. Only the high-resolution simulations produce a wintertime response similar to observed anomalies. More specifically, (i) analysis of the atmospheric thermodynamic balance close to the GSF showed that the anomalous diabatic heating associated to the GSF displacement is mainly balanced by vertical motion and by meridional transient eddy heat transport (not the case for low-resolution models), while (ii) the large-scale response includes a meridional shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet and storm track homodirectional to the GSF displacement. This atmospheric response is accompanied by changes in low-level baroclinicity close to and north of the GSF, resulting from the oceanic forcing and the zonal atmospheric circulation anomalies respectively. The low-level baroclinicity anomalies lead to changes in baroclinic eddy activity and, ultimately, in the jet via eddy-mean flow interaction. Considering the two-way nature of air-sea interactions, using historical atmosphere-only simulations is a powerful way to isolate the impact of realistic oceanic variability on the atmosphere. Our results suggest that interannual-to-decadal predictability may be higher than what low-resolution models currently indicate

Pacific circulation response to eastern Arctic sea ice reduction in seasonal forecast simulations

Recent studies point to the sensitivity of mid-latitude winter climate to Arctic sea ice variability. However, there remain contradictory results in terms of character and timing of Northern Hemisphere large-scale circulation features to Arctic sea ice changes. This study assesses the impact of realistic late autumn eastern Arctic sea ice anomalies on atmospheric wintertime circulation at mid-latitudes, pointing to a hidden potential for seasonal predictability. ​Using a dynamical seasonal prediction system, an ensemble of seasonal forecast simulations of 23 historical winter seasons is run with reduced November sea ice cover in the Barents-Kara Seas, and is compared to the respective control seasonal hindcast simulations set. ​A non energy-conserving approach is adopted for achieving the desired sea ice loss, with artificial heat being added conditionally to the ocean surface heat fluxes so as to inhibit the formation of sea ice during November. Our results point to a robust atmospheric circulation response in the North Pacific sector, similar to previous findings on the multidecadal timescale. Specifically, an anticyclonic anomaly at upper and lower levels is identified over the eastern midlatitude North Pacific, leading to dry conditions over the North American southwest coast. The responses are related to a re-organization (weakening) of west-Pacific tropical convection and interactions with the tropical Hadley circulation. ​A possible interaction of the poleward-shifted Pacific eddy-driven jet stream and the Hadley cell is discussed​. ​The winter circulation response in the Euro-Atlantic sector is ephemeral in character and statistically significant in January only, corroborating previous findings of an intermittent and non-stationary Arctic sea ice-NAO link during boreal winter. These results ​aid our understanding of the seasonal impacts of reduced eastern Arctic sea ice on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation with implications for seasonal predictability in wintertime

Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi-model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi-model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO

Tetrafurcation of the subscapular artery. Anatomical and clinical implications

Anatomic variations of axillary artery branches are commonly encountered during radiological investigation and surgical operations. Their existence can confuse interpretation of radiological results and lead to undesired complications during surgery. In this report authors describe a rare case of a subscapular arterial trunk that gave origin to thoracodorsal, circumflex scapular, posterior humeral circumflex, and lateral thoracic artery. Such a variation might cause undesired sequelae during trauma management and a variety of common flap harvesting operations including latissimus dorsi, scapular and parascapular flaps. Furthermore it presents embryological interest as it gives insight to embryologic development of axillary area

Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi-model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi-model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO

Combinatorial Markov chains on linear extensions

We consider generalizations of Schuetzenberger's promotion operator on the set L of linear extensions of a finite poset of size n. This gives rise to a strongly connected graph on L. By assigning weights to the edges of the graph in two different ways, we study two Markov chains, both of which are irreducible. The stationary state of one gives rise to the uniform distribution, whereas the weights of the stationary state of the other has a nice product formula. This generalizes results by Hendricks on the Tsetlin library, which corresponds to the case when the poset is the anti-chain and hence L=S_n is the full symmetric group. We also provide explicit eigenvalues of the transition matrix in general when the poset is a rooted forest. This is shown by proving that the associated monoid is R-trivial and then using Steinberg's extension of Brown's theory for Markov chains on left regular bands to R-trivial monoids.Comment: 35 pages, more examples of promotion, rephrased the main theorems in terms of discrete time Markov chain

Mitigating Climate Biases in the Midlatitude North Atlantic by Increasing Model Resolution: SST Gradients and Their Relation to Blocking and the Jet

Starting to resolve the oceanic mesoscale in climate models is a step change in model fidelity. This study examines how certain obstinate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic respond to increasing resolution (from 18 to 0.258 in the ocean) and how such biases in sea surface temperature (SST) affect the atmosphere. Using a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations run at different horizontal resolutions, it is shown that a severe cold SST bias in the central North Atlantic, common to many ocean models, is significantly reduced with increasing resolution. The associated bias in the time-mean meridional SST gradient is shown to relate to a positive bias in low-level baroclinicity, while the cold SST bias causes biases also in static stability and diabatic heating in the interior of the atmosphere. The changes in baroclinicity and diabatic heating brought by increasing resolution lead to improvements in European blocking and eddy-driven jet variability. Across the multimodel ensemble a clear relationship is found between the climatological meridional SST gradients in the broader Gulf Stream Extension area and two aspects of the atmospheric circulation: the frequency of high-latitude blocking and the southern-jet regime. This relationship is thought to reflect the two-way interaction (with a positive feedback) between the respective oceanic and atmospheric anomalies. These North Atlantic SST anomalies are shown to be important in forcing significant responses in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, including jet variability and the storm track. Further increases in oceanic and atmospheric resolution are expected to lead to additional improvements in the representation of Euro-Atlantic climate

Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models: evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution

Global climate models (GCMs) are known to suffer from biases in the simulation of atmospheric blocking, and this study provides an assessment of how blocking is represented by the latest generation of GCMs. It is evaluated (i) how historical CMIP6 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations perform compared to CMIP5 simulations and (ii) how horizontal model resolution affects the simulation of blocking in the CMIP6-HighResMIP (PRIMAVERA – PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high-resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment) model ensemble, which is designed to address this type of question. Two blocking indices are used to evaluate the simulated mean blocking frequency and blocking persistence for the Euro-Atlantic and Pacific regions in winter and summer against the corresponding estimates from atmospheric reanalysis data. There is robust evidence that CMIP6 models simulate blocking frequency and persistence better than CMIP5 models in the Atlantic and Pacific and during winter and summer. This improvement is sizeable so that, for example, winter blocking frequency in the median CMIP5 model in a large Euro-Atlantic domain is underestimated by 33 % using the absolute geopotential height (AGP) blocking index, whereas the same number is 18 % for the median CMIP6 model. As for the sensitivity of simulated blocking to resolution, it is found that the resolution increase, from typically 100 to 20 km grid spacing, in most of the PRIMAVERA models, which are not re-tuned at the higher resolutions, benefits the mean blocking frequency in the Atlantic in winter and summer and in the Pacific in summer. Simulated blocking persistence, however, is not seen to improve with resolution. Our results are consistent with previous studies suggesting that resolution is one of a number of interacting factors necessary for an adequate simulation of blocking in GCMs. The improvements reported in this study hold promise for further reductions in blocking biases as model development continues

Updated Field Synopsis and Systematic Meta-Analyses of Genetic Association Studies in Cutaneous Melanoma: The MelGene Database

We updated a field synopsis of genetic associations of cutaneous melanoma (CM) by systematically retrieving and combining data from all studies in the field published as of August 31, 2013. Data were available from 197 studies, which included 83,343 CM cases and 187,809 controls and reported on 1,126 polymorphisms in 289 different genes. Random-effects meta-analyses of 81 eligible polymorphisms evaluated in >4 data sets confirmed 20 single-nucleotide polymorphisms across 10 loci (TYR, AFG3L1P, CDK10, MYH7B, SLC45A2, MTAP, ATM, CLPTM1L, FTO, and CASP8) that have previously been published with genome-wide significant evidence for association (P<5 × 10−8) with CM risk, with certain variants possibly functioning as proxies of already tagged genes. Four other loci (MITF, CCND1, MX2, and PLA2G6) were also significantly associated with 5 × 10−8<P<1 × 10−3. In supplementary meta-analyses derived from genome-wide association studies, one additional locus located 11 kb upstream of ARNT (chromosome 1q21) showed genome-wide statistical significance with CM. Our approach serves as a useful model in analyzing and integrating the reported germline alterations involved in CM