Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

The COVID-19 and iron-repertoire in an observational cross-sectional analytical study of Egyptian patients.

Background and rationale: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is a respiratory tract infection because of a novel coronavirus. The clinical picture ranges from asymptomatic to severe manifestations mandating intensive care and respiratory support. We aimed to assess the serum level of iron, total iron binding capacity (TIBC), and transferrin saturation in COVID-19 patients and their relation to disease severity and outcome. Methodology: This observational cross-sectional analytical study was conducted on 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 who were admitted to Kasr Al-Ainy hospitals between June and December 2020.Serum levels of iron, total iron binding capacity (TIBC), and transferrin saturation were measured for all study populations. Result: One hundred patients were involved in this research, 51males and 49 females, with a mean age of 51±14.9years. Regarding the disease severity,53% were moderate cases, 34% were mild, and 13% were severe cases. Fifty-two (54.2%) patients showed normal serum levels of iron, 38 patients (39.6%) showed high serum levels of iron, and 6 patients (6.3%) showed low serum levels of iron. The mean ±SD values of iron, TIBC, and transferrin saturation were 163.1±105 mcg/dL, 366 ± 162.6 mcg/dL, 44.4 ± 20.2 %, respectively. Iron, total iron binding capacity (TIBC) levels and transferrin saturation did not show a significant association as regards either COVID-19 severity or mortality. Mortality and deterioration were detected in 31.7% out of 60 patients with COVID-19. The results showed that obese patients showed a higher percentage of severe COVID-19,which was statistically significant (p =0.037).There was a statistically significant higher mortality rate in patients with severe COVID-19 (p =0.000).High mortality was observed significantly in patients with diabetes mellitus (p =0.041).Iron levels, total iron binding capacity (TIBC) levels and transferrin saturation did not show a significant association regarding either COVID-19 severity or mortality. Conclusion: In our study, COVID-19 severity was not related to iron metabolism but was affected by obesity and diabetes mellitus. COVID-19 mortality was significantly associated with diabetes

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Global multi-stakeholder endorsement of the MAFLD definition

none1055noneMendez-Sanchez N.; Bugianesi E.; Gish R.G.; Lammert F.; Tilg H.; Nguyen M.H.; Sarin S.K.; Fabrellas N.; Zelber-Sagi S.; Fan J.-G.; Shiha G.; Targher G.; Zheng M.-H.; Chan W.-K.; Vinker S.; Kawaguchi T.; Castera L.; Yilmaz Y.; Korenjak M.; Spearman C.W.; Ungan M.; Palmer M.; El-Shabrawi M.; Gruss H.-J.; Dufour J.-F.; Dhawan A.; Wedemeyer H.; George J.; Valenti L.; Fouad Y.; Romero-Gomez M.; Eslam M.; Abate M.L.; Abbas B.; Abbassy A.A.; Abd El Ghany W.; Abd Elkhalek A.; Abd ElMajeed E.; Abdalgaber M.; AbdAllah M.; Abdallah M.; Abdallah N.; Abdelaleem S.; Abdelghani Y.; Abdelghany W.; Abdelhalim S.M.; Abdelhamid W.; Abdelhamid N.; Abdelkader N.A.; Abdelkreem E.; Abdelmohsen A.M.; Abdelrahman A.A.; Abd-elsalam S.M.; Abdeltawab D.; Abduh A.; Abdulhakam N.; Abdulla M.; Abedpoor N.; Abenavoli L.; Aberg F.; Ablack O.; Abo elftouh M.; Abo-Amer Y.E.-E.; Aboubkr A.; Aboud A.; Abouelnaga A.M.; Aboufarrag G.A.; Aboutaleb A.; Abundis L.; Adali G.; Adames E.; Adams L.; Adda D.; Adel N.; Adel N.; Adel Sayed M.; Afaa T.J.; Afredj N.; Aghayeva G.; Aghemo A.; Aguilar-Salinas C.A.; Ahlenstiel G.; Ahmady W.; Ahmed W.; Ahmed A.; Ahmed S.N.; Ahmed H.M.; Ahmed R.; Aigner E.; Akarsu M.; Akroush M.; Akyuz U.; Al Mahtab M.; Al Qadiri T.; Al Rawahi Y.; AL rubaee R.; Al Saffar M.; Alam S.; Al-Ani Z.; Albillos A.; Alboraie M.; Al-Busafi S.; Al-Emam M.; Alharthi J.; Ali K.; Ali B.A.; Ali M.; Ali R.A.R.; Alisi A.; AL-Khafaji A.R.; Alkhatry M.; Aller R.; Almansoury Y.; Al-Naamani K.; Alnakeeb A.; Alonso A.; Alqahtani S.A.; Alrabadi L.; Alswat K.; Altaher M.; Altamimi T.; Altamirano J.; Alvares-da-Silva M.R.; Aly E.A.M.; Alzahaby A.; Alzamzamy A.; Amano K.; Amer M.A.; Amin M.A.; Amin S.A.; Amir A.A.; Ampuero J.; Anas N.; Andreone P.; Andriamandimby S.F.; Anees M.; Angela P.; Antonios M.; Arafat W.; Araya J.M.; Armendariz-Borunda J.; Armstrong M.J.; Ashktorab H.; Aspichueta P.; Assal F.; Atef M.; Attia D.; Atwa H.; Awad R.; Awad M.A.E.; Awny S.; Awolowo O.; Awuku Y.A.; Ayada I.; Aye T.T.; Ayman S.; Ayman H.; Ayoub H.; Azmy H.M.; Babaran R.P.; Badreldin O.; Badry A.; Bahcecioglu I.H.; Bahour A.; Bai J.; Balaban Y.; Balasubramanyam M.; Bamakhrama K.; Banales J.M.; Bangaru B.; Bao J.; Barahona J.S.; Barakat S.; Barbalho S.M.; Barbra B.; Barranco B.; Barrera F.; Baumann U.; Bazeed S.; Bech E.; Benayad A.; Benesic A.; Bernstein D.; Bessone F.; Birney S.; Bisseye C.; Blake M.; Bobat B.; Bonfrate L.; Bordin D.S.; Bosques-Padilla F.; Boursier J.; Boushab B.M.; Bowen D.; Bravo P.M.; Brennan P.N.; Bright B.; Broekaert I.; Buque X.; Burgos-Santamaria D.; Burman J.; Busetto L.; Byrne C.D.; Cabral-Prodigalidad P.A.I.; Cabrera-Alvarez G.; Cai W.; Cainelli F.; Caliskan A.R.; Canbay A.; Cano-Contreras A.; Cao H.-X.; Cao Z.; Carrion A.; Carubbi F.; Casanovas T.; Castellanos Fernandez M.I.; Chai J.; Chan S.P.; Charatcharoenwitthaya P.; Chavez-Tapia N.; Chayama K.; Chen J.; Chen L.; Chen Z.-W.; Chen H.; Chen S.-D.; Chen Q.; Chen Y.; Chen G.; Chen E.-Q.; Chen F.; Chen P.-J.; Cheng R.; Cheng W.; Chieh J.T.W.; Chokr I.; Cholongitas E.; Choudhury A.; Chowdhury A.; Chukwudike E.S.; Ciardullo S.; Clayton M.; Clement K.; Cloa M.M.; Coccia C.; Collazos C.; Colombo M.; Cosar A.M.; Cotrim H.P.; Couillerot J.; Coulibaly A.; Crespo G.; Crespo J.; Cruells M.; Cua I.H.Y.; Dabbous H.K.; Dalekos G.N.; D'Alia P.; Dan L.; Dao V.H.; Darwish M.; Datz C.; Davalos-Moscol M.B.; Dawoud H.; de Careaga B.O.; de Knegt R.; de Ledinghen V.; de Silva J.; Debzi N.; Decraecker M.; Del Pozo E.; Delgado T.C.; Delgado-Blanco M.; Dembinski L.; Depina A.; Derbala M.; Desalegn H.; Desbois-Mouthon C.; Desoky M.; Dev A.; Di Ciaula A.; Diago M.; Diallo I.; Diaz L.A.; Dirchwolf M.; Dongiovanni P.; Dorofeyev A.; Dou X.; Douglas M.W.; Doulberis M.; Dovia C.K.; Doyle A.; Dragojevic I.; Drenth J.P.; Duan X.; Dulskas A.; Dumitrascu D.L.; Duncan O.; Dusabejambo V.; Dwawhi R.S.N.A.; Eiketsu S.; El Amrousy D.; El Deeb A.; El Deriny G.; El Din H.S.; El Kamshishy S.; El Kassas M.; El Raziky M.; Elagamy O.A.; Elakel W.; Elalfy D.; Elaraby H.; ElAwady H.; Elbadawy R.; Eldash H.H.; Eldefrawy M.S.; Elecharri C.L.; Elfaramawy A.; Elfatih M.; Elfiky M.; Elgamsy M.; Elgendy M.; El-Guindi M.A.; Elhussieny N.; Eliwa A.M.; Elkabbany Z.; El-Khayat H.; El-Koofy N.M.; Elmetwalli A.; Elrabat A.; El-Raey F.; Elrashdy F.; Elsahhar M.; Elsaid E.M.; Elsayed S.; Elsayed H.; Elsayed A.; Elsayed A.M.; Elsayed H.; El-Serafy M.; Elsharkawy A.M.; Elsheemy R.Y.; Elshemy E.E.; Elsherbini S.; Eltoukhy N.; Elwakil R.; Emad O.; Emad S.; Embabi M.; Ergenc I.; Ermolova T.; Esmat G.; Esmat D.M.; Estupinan E.C.; Ettair S.; Eugen T.; Ezz-Eldin M.; Falcon L.P.V.; Fan Y.-C.; Fandari S.; Farag M.; Farahat T.M.; Fares E.M.; Fares M.; Fassio E.; Fathy H.; Fathy D.; Fathy W.; Fayed S.; Feng D.; Feng G.; Fernandez-Bermejo M.; Ferreira C.T.; Ferrer J.D.; Forbes A.; Fouad R.; Fouad H.M.; Frisch T.; Fujii H.; Fukunaga S.; Fukunishi S.; Fulya H.; Furuhashi M.; Gaber Y.; Galang A.J.G.; Gallardo J.C.; Galloso R.; Gamal M.; Gamal R.; Gamal H.; Gan J.; Ganbold A.; Gao X.; Garas G.; Garba T.; Garcia-Cortes M.; Garcia-Monzon C.; Garcia-Samaniego J.; Gastaldelli A.; Gatica M.; Gatley E.; Gegeshidze T.; Geng B.; Ghazinyan H.; Ghoneem S.; Giacomelli L.; Giannelli G.; Giannini E.G.; Giefer M.; Gines P.; Girala M.; Giraudi P.J.; Goh G.B.-B.; Gomaa A.A.; Gong B.; Gonzales D.H.C.; Gonzalez H.C.; Gonzalez-Huezo M.S.; Graupera I.; Grgurevic I.; Gronbaek H.; Gu X.; Guan L.; Gueye I.; Guingane A.N.; Gul O.O.; Gul C.B.; Guo Q.; Gupta P.P.; Gurakar A.; Gutierrez J.C.R.; Habib G.; Hafez A.; Hagman E.; Halawa E.; Hamdy O.; Hamed A.E.; Hamed D.H.; Hamid S.; Hamoudi W.; Han Y.; Haridy J.; Haridy H.; Harris D.C.H.H.; Hart M.; Hasan F.; Hashim A.; Hassan I.; Hassan A.; Hassan E.A.; Hassan A.A.; Hassan M.S.; Hassanin F.; Hassnine A.; Haukeland J.W.; Hawal A.I.M.; He J.; He Q.; He Y.; He F.-P.; Hegazy M.; Hegazy A.; Henegil O.; Hernandez N.; Hernandez-Guerra M.; Higuera-de-la-Tijera F.; Hindy I.; Hirota K.; Ho L.C.; Hodge A.; Hosny M.; Hou X.; Huang J.-F.; Huang Y.; Huang Z.; Huang Y.; Huang A.; Huang X.-P.; Hui-ping S.; Hunyady B.; Hussein M.A.; Hussein O.; Hussien S.M.; Ibanez-Samaniego L.; Ibdah J.; Ibrahim L.; Ibrahim M.; Ibrahim I.; Icaza-Chavez M.E.; Idelbi S.; Idilman R.I.; Ikeda M.; Indolfi G.; Invernizzi F.; Irshad I.; Isa H.M.A.; Iskandar N.J.; Ismaiel A.; Ismail M.; Ismail Z.; Ismail F.; Iwamoto H.; Jack K.; Jacob R.; Jafarov F.; Jafri W.; Jahshan H.; Jalal P.K.; Jancoriene L.; Janicko M.; Jayasena H.; Jefferies M.; Jha V.; Ji F.; Ji Y.; Jia J.; Jiang C.; Jiang N.; Jiang Z.-Z.; Jin X.; Jin Y.; Jing X.; Jingyu Q.; Jinjolava M.; Jong F.H.H.; Jucov A.; Julius I.; Kaddah M.; Kamada Y.; kamal A.; Kamal E.M.; Kamel A.S.; Kao J.-H.; Karin M.; Karlas T.; Kashwaa M.; Katsidzira L.; Kaya E.; Kayasseh M.A.; Keenan B.; Keklikkiran C.; Keml W.; Khalaf D.K.; Khalefa R.; Khamis S.; Khater D.; khattab H.; Khavkin A.; Khlynova O.; Khmis N.; Kobyliak N.; Koffas A.; Koike K.; Kok K.Y.Y.; Koller T.; Komas N.P.; Korochanskaya N.V.; Koulla Y.; Koya S.; Kraft C.; Kraja B.; Krawczyk M.; Kuchay M.S.; Kulkarni A.V.; Kumar A.; Kumar M.; Lakoh S.; Lam P.; Lan L.; Lange N.F.; Lankarani K.B.; Lanthier N.; Lapshyna K.; Lashen S.A.; Laure K.N.J.; Lazebnik L.; Lebrec D.; Lee S.S.; Lee W.S.; Lee Y.Y.; Leeming D.J.; Leite N.C.; Leon R.; Lesmana C.R.A.; Li J.; Li Q.; Li J.; Li Y.-Y.; Li Y.; Li L.; Li M.; li Y.; Liang H.; Lijuan T.; Lim S.G.; Lim L.-L.; Lin S.; Lin H.-C.; Lin R.; Lithy R.; Liu Y.; Liu Y.; Liu X.; Liu W.-Y.; Liu S.; Liu K.; Liu T.; Lonardo A.; Lopez M.B.; Lopez-Benages E.; Lopez-Jaramillo P.; Lu H.; Lu L.G.; Lu Y.; Lubel J.; Lui R.; Lupasco I.; Luzina E.; Lv X.-H.; Lynch K.; Ma H.-L.; Machado M.V.; Maduka N.; Madzharova K.; Magdaong R.; Mahadeva S.; Mahfouz A.; Mahmood N.R.K.N.; Mahmoud E.; Mahrous M.; Maiwall R.; Majeed A.; Majumdar A.; Mak L.; Maklouf M.M.; Malekzadeh R.; Mandato C.; Mangia A.; Mann J.; Mansour H.H.; Mansouri A.; Mantovani A.; Mao J.Q.; Maramag F.; Marchesini G.; Marcus C.; Marinho R.A.R.T.; Martinez-Chantar M.L.; Martins A.A.S.; Marwan R.; Mason K.F.; Masoud G.; Massoud M.N.; Matamoros M.A.; Mateos R.M.; Mawed A.; Mbanya J.C.; Mbendi C.; McColaugh L.; McLeod D.; Medina J.F.R.; Megahed A.; Mehrez M.; Memon I.; Merat S.; Mercado R.; Mesbah A.; Meskini T.; Metwally M.; Metwaly R.; Miao L.; Micah E.; Miele L.; Milivojevic V.; Milovanovic T.; Mina Y.L.; Mishkovik M.; Mishriki A.; Mitchell T.; Mohamed A.; Mohamed M.; Mohamed S.; Mohammed S.; Mohammed A.; Mohan V.; Mohie S.; Mokhtar A.; Moniem R.; Montilla M.S.; Morales J.A.O.; Morata M.M.S.; Moreno-Planas J.M.; Morise S.; Mosaad S.; Moselhy M.; Mostafa A.M.; Mostafa E.; Mouane N.; Mousa N.; Moustafa H.M.; Msherif A.; Muller K.; Munoz C.; Munoz-Urribarri A.B.; Murillo O.A.; Mustapha F.I.; Muzurovic E.; Nabil Y.; Nafady S.; Nagamatsu A.; Nakajima A.; Nakano D.; Nan Y.; Nascimbeni F.; Naseef M.S.; Nashat N.; Natalia T.; Negro F.; Nersesov A.V.; Neuman M.; Ng'wanasayi M.; Ni Y.; Nicoll A.; Niizeki T.; Nikolova D.; Ningning W.; Niriella M.; Nogoibaeva K.A.; Nordien R.; O Sullivan C.; O'Beirne J.; Obekpa S.; Ocama P.; Ochwoto M.; Ogolodom M.P.; Ojo O.; Okrostsvaridze N.; Oliveira C.P.; Omana R.C.; Omar O.M.; Omar H.; Omar M.; Omran S.; Omran R.; Osman M.M.; Owise N.; Owusu-Ansah T.; Padilla- Machaca P.M.; Palle S.; Pan Z.; Pan X.-Y.; Pan Q.; Papaefthymiou A.; Paquissi F.C.; Par G.; Parkash A.; Payawal D.; Peltekian K.M.; Peng X.; Peng L.; Peng Y.; Pengoria R.; Perez M.; Perez J.L.; Perez N.M.; Persico M.; Pessoa M.G.; Petta S.; Philip M.; Plaz Torres M.C.; Polavarapu N.; Poniachik J.; Portincasa P.; Pu C.; Purnak T.; Purwanto E.; Qi X.; Qi X.; Qian Z.; Qiang Z.; Qiao Z.; Qiao L.; Queiroz A.; Rabiee A.; Radwan M.; Rahetilahy A.M.; Ramadan Y.; Ramadan D.; Ramli A.S.; Ramm G.A.; Ran A.; Rankovic I.; RAO H.; Raouf S.; Ray S.; Reau N.; Refaat A.; Reiberger T.; Remes-Troche J.M.; Reyes E.C.; Richardson B.; Ridruejo E.; Riestra Jimenez S.; Rizk I.; Roberts S.; Roblero J.P.; Robles J.A.P.; Rockey D.; Rodriguez M.; Rodriguez Hernandez H.; Roman E.; Romeiro F.G.; Romeo S.; Rosales-Zabal J.M.; Roshdi G.R.; Rosso N.; Ruf A.; Ruiz P.C.; Runes N.R.; Ruzzenente A.; Ryan M.; Saad A.; Sabbagh E.B.; Sabbah M.; Saber S.; Sabrey R.; Sabry R.; Saeed M.A.; Said D.; Said E.M.; Sakr M.A.; Salah Y.; Salama R.M.; Salama A.; Saleh H.; Saleh A.; Salem A.; Salem A.T.; Salifou A.; Salih A.F.; Salman A.; Samouda H.; Sanai F.; Sanchez-Avila J.F.; Sanker L.; Sano T.; Sanz M.; Saparbu T.; Sawhney R.; Sayed F.; Sayed S.A.; Sayed A.O.; Sayed M.; Sebastiani G.; Secadas L.; Sediqi K.Q.; Seif S.; Semida N.; Senates E.; Serban E.D.; Serfaty L.; Seto W.-K.; Sghaier I.; Sha M.; Shabaan H.M.; Shalaby L.; Shaltout I.; Sharara A.I.; Sharma V.; Shawa I.T.; Shawkat A.; Shawky N.; Shehata O.; Sheils S.; Shewaye A.B.; Shi G.; Shi J.; Shimose S.; Shirono T.; Shou L.; Shrestha A.; Shui G.; Sievert W.; Sigurdardottir S.; Sira M.M.; Siradj R.; Sison C.; Smyth L.; Soliman R.; Sollano J.D.; Sombie R.; Sonderup M.; Sood S.; Soriano G.; Stedman C.A.M.; Stefanyuk O.; Stimac D.; Strasser S.; Strnad P.; Stuart K.; Su W.; Su M.; Sumida Y.; Sumie S.; Sun D.-Q.; Sun J.; Suzuki H.; Svegliati-Baroni G.; Swar M.O.; TAHARBOUCHT S.; Taher Z.; Takamura S.; Tan L.; Tan S.-S.; Tanwandee T.; Tarek S.; Tatiana G.; Tavaglione F.; Tecson G.Y.; Tee H.-P.; Teschke R.; Tharwat M.; Thong V.D.; Thursz M.; Tine T.; Tiribelli C.; Tolmane I.; Tong J.; Tongo M.; Torkie M.; Torre A.; Torres E.A.; Trajkovska M.; Treeprasertsuk S.; Tsutsumi T.; Tu T.; Tur J.A.; Turan D.; Turcan S.; Turkina S.; Tutar E.; Tzeuton C.; Ugiagbe R.; Uygun A.; Vacca M.; Vajro P.; Van der Poorten D.; Van Kleef L.A.; Vashakidze E.; Velazquez C.M.; Velazquez M.I.; Vento S.; Verhoeven V.; Vespasiani-Gentilucci U.; Vethakkan S.R.; Vilaseca J.; Vitek L.; Volkanovska A.; Wallace M.; Wan W.; Wang Y.; Wang Y.; Wang X.; Wang X.; Wang C.; Wang C.; Wang M.; Wangchuk P.; Weltman M.; White M.; Wiegand J.; Wifi M.-N.; Wigg A.; Wilhelmi M.; William R.; Wittenburg H.; Wu S.; Wubeneh A.M.; Xia H.; Xiao J.; Xiao X.; Xiaofeng W.; Xiong W.; Xu L.; Xu J.; Xu W.; Xu J.-H.; Xu K.; Xu Y.; Xu S.-H.; Xu M.; Xu A.; Xu C.; Yan H.; Yang J.; Yang R.-X.; Yang Y.; Yang Q.; Yang N.; Yao J.; Yara J.; Yaras S.; Yilmaz N.; Younes R.; younes H.; Young S.; Youssef F.; Yu Y.; Yu M.-L.; Yuan J.; Yue Z.; Yuen M.-F.; Yun W.; Yurukova N.; Zakaria S.; Zaky S.; Zaldastanishvili M.; Zapata R.; Zare N.; Zerem E.; Zeriban N.; Zeshuai X.; Zhang H.; Zhang X.; Zhang Y.; Zhang W.-H.; Zhang X.; Zhang Y.-P.; Zhang Y.; Zhang Z.-Q.; Zhao J.; Zhao R.-R.; Zhao H.; Zheng C.; Zheng Y.; Zheng R.; Zheng T.-L.; Zheng K.; Zhou X.Q.; Zhou Y.; Zhou Y.-J.; Zhou H.; Zhou L.; Zhou Y.; Zhu L.D.; Zhu Y.F.; Zhu Y.; Zhu P.-W.; Ziada E.; Ziring D.; Ziyi L.; Zou S.; Zou Z.; Zou H.; Zuart Ruiz R.Mendez-Sanchez, N.; Bugianesi, E.; Gish, R. G.; Lammert, F.; Tilg, H.; Nguyen, M. H.; Sarin, S. K.; Fabrellas, N.; Zelber-Sagi, S.; Fan, J. -G.; Shiha, G.; Targher, G.; Zheng, M. -H.; Chan, W. -K.; Vinker, S.; Kawaguchi, T.; Castera, L.; Yilmaz, Y.; Korenjak, M.; Spearman, C. W.; Ungan, M.; Palmer, M.; El-Shabrawi, M.; Gruss, H. -J.; Dufour, J. -F.; Dhawan, A.; Wedemeyer, H.; George, J.; Valenti, L.; Fouad, Y.; Romero-Gomez, M.; Eslam, M.; Abate, M. L.; Abbas, B.; Abbassy, A. A.; Abd El Ghany, W.; Abd Elkhalek, A.; Abd ElMajeed, E.; Abdalgaber, M.; Abdallah, M.; Abdallah, M.; Abdallah, N.; Abdelaleem, S.; Abdelghani, Y.; Abdelghany, W.; Abdelhalim, S. M.; Abdelhamid, W.; Abdelhamid, N.; Abdelkader, N. A.; Abdelkreem, E.; Abdelmohsen, A. M.; Abdelrahman, A. A.; Abd-elsalam, S. M.; Abdeltawab, D.; Abduh, A.; Abdulhakam, N.; Abdulla, M.; Abedpoor, N.; Abenavoli, L.; Aberg, F.; Ablack, O.; Abo elftouh, M.; Abo-Amer, Y. E. -E.; Aboubkr, A.; Aboud, A.; Abouelnaga, A. M.; Aboufarrag, G. A.; Aboutaleb, A.; Abundis, L.; Adali, G.; Adames, E.; Adams, L.; Adda, D.; Adel, N.; Adel, N.; Adel Sayed, M.; Afaa, T. J.; Afredj, N.; Aghayeva, G.; Aghemo, A.; Aguilar-Salinas, C. A.; Ahlenstiel, G.; Ahmady, W.; Ahmed, W.; Ahmed, A.; Ahmed, S. N.; Ahmed, H. M.; Ahmed, R.; Aigner, E.; Akarsu, M.; Akroush, M.; Akyuz, U.; Al Mahtab, M.; Al Qadiri, T.; Al Rawahi, Y.; AL rubaee, R.; Al Saffar, M.; Alam, S.; Al-Ani, Z.; Albillos, A.; Alboraie, M.; Al-Busafi, S.; Al-Emam, M.; Alharthi, J.; Ali, K.; Ali, B. A.; Ali, M.; Ali, R. A. R.; Alisi, A.; AL-Khafaji, A. R.; Alkhatry, M.; Aller, R.; Almansoury, Y.; Al-Naamani, K.; Alnakeeb, A.; Alonso, A.; Alqahtani, S. A.; Alrabadi, L.; Alswat, K.; Altaher, M.; Altamimi, T.; Altamirano, J.; Alvares-da-Silva, M. R.; Aly, E. A. M.; Alzahaby, A.; Alzamzamy, A.; Amano, K.; Amer, M. A.; Amin, M. A.; Amin, S. A.; Amir, A. A.; Ampuero, J.; Anas, N.; Andreone, P.; Andriamandimby, S. F.; Anees, M.; Angela, P.; Antonios, M.; Arafat, W.; Araya, J. 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C.; Delgado-Blanco, M.; Dembinski, L.; Depina, A.; Derbala, M.; Desalegn, H.; Desbois-Mouthon, C.; Desoky, M.; Dev, A.; Di Ciaula, A.; Diago, M.; Diallo, I.; Diaz, L. A.; Dirchwolf, M.; Dongiovanni, P.; Dorofeyev, A.; Dou, X.; Douglas, M. W.; Doulberis, M.; Dovia, C. K.; Doyle, A.; Dragojevic, I.; Drenth, J. P.; Duan, X.; Dulskas, A.; Dumitrascu, D. L.; Duncan, O.; Dusabejambo, V.; Dwawhi, R. S. N. A.; Eiketsu, S.; El Amrousy, D.; El Deeb, A.; El Deriny, G.; El Din, H. S.; El Kamshishy, S.; El Kassas, M.; El Raziky, M.; Elagamy, O. A.; Elakel, W.; Elalfy, D.; Elaraby, H.; Elawady, H.; Elbadawy, R.; Eldash, H. H.; Eldefrawy, M. S.; Elecharri, C. L.; Elfaramawy, A.; Elfatih, M.; Elfiky, M.; Elgamsy, M.; Elgendy, M.; El-Guindi, M. A.; Elhussieny, N.; Eliwa, A. M.; Elkabbany, Z.; El-Khayat, H.; El-Koofy, N. M.; Elmetwalli, A.; Elrabat, A.; El-Raey, F.; Elrashdy, F.; Elsahhar, M.; Elsaid, E. M.; Elsayed, S.; Elsayed, H.; Elsayed, A.; Elsayed, A. M.; Elsayed, H.; El-Serafy, M.; Elsharkawy, A. M.; Elsheemy, R. Y.; Elshemy, E. E.; Elsherbini, S.; Eltoukhy, N.; Elwakil, R.; Emad, O.; Emad, S.; Embabi, M.; Ergenc, I.; Ermolova, T.; Esmat, G.; Esmat, D. M.; Estupinan, E. C.; Ettair, S.; Eugen, T.; Ezz-Eldin, M.; Falcon, L. P. V.; Fan, Y. -C.; Fandari, S.; Farag, M.; Farahat, T. M.; Fares, E. M.; Fares, M.; Fassio, E.; Fathy, H.; Fathy, D.; Fathy, W.; Fayed, S.; Feng, D.; Feng, G.; Fernandez-Bermejo, M.; Ferreira, C. T.; Ferrer, J. D.; Forbes, A.; Fouad, R.; Fouad, H. M.; Frisch, T.; Fujii, H.; Fukunaga, S.; Fukunishi, S.; Fulya, H.; Furuhashi, M.; Gaber, Y.; Galang, A. J. G.; Gallardo, J. C.; Galloso, R.; Gamal, M.; Gamal, R.; Gamal, H.; Gan, J.; Ganbold, A.; Gao, X.; Garas, G.; Garba, T.; Garcia-Cortes, M.; Garcia-Monzon, C.; Garcia-Samaniego, J.; Gastaldelli, A.; Gatica, M.; Gatley, E.; Gegeshidze, T.; Geng, B.; Ghazinyan, H.; Ghoneem, S.; Giacomelli, L.; Giannelli, G.; Giannini, E. G.; Giefer, M.; Gines, P.; Girala, M.; Giraudi, P. J.; Goh, G. B. -B.; Gomaa, A. A.; Gong, B.; Gonzales, D. H. C.; Gonzalez, H. C.; Gonzalez-Huezo, M. S.; Graupera, I.; Grgurevic, I.; Gronbaek, H.; Gu, X.; Guan, L.; Gueye, I.; Guingane, A. N.; Gul, O. O.; Gul, C. B.; Guo, Q.; Gupta, P. P.; Gurakar, A.; Gutierrez, J. C. R.; Habib, G.; Hafez, A.; Hagman, E.; Halawa, E.; Hamdy, O.; Hamed, A. E.; Hamed, D. H.; Hamid, S.; Hamoudi, W.; Han, Y.; Haridy, J.; Haridy, H.; Harris, D. C. H. H.; Hart, M.; Hasan, F.; Hashim, A.; Hassan, I.; Hassan, A.; Hassan, E. A.; Hassan, A. A.; Hassan, M. S.; Hassanin, F.; Hassnine, A.; Haukeland, J. W.; Hawal, A. I. M.; He, J.; He, Q.; He, Y.; He, F. -P.; Hegazy, M.; Hegazy, A.; Henegil, O.; Hernandez, N.; Hernandez-Guerra, M.; Higuera-de-la-Tijera, F.; Hindy, I.; Hirota, K.; Ho, L. C.; Hodge, A.; Hosny, M.; Hou, X.; Huang, J. -F.; Huang, Y.; Huang, Z.; Huang, Y.; Huang, A.; Huang, X. -P.; Hui-ping, S.; Hunyady, B.; Hussein, M. A.; Hussein, O.; Hussien, S. M.; Ibanez-Samaniego, L.; Ibdah, J.; Ibrahim, L.; Ibrahim, M.; Ibrahim, I.; Icaza-Chavez, M. E.; Idelbi, S.; Idilman, R. I.; Ikeda, M.; Indolfi, G.; Invernizzi, F.; Irshad, I.; Isa, H. M. A.; Iskandar, N. J.; Ismaiel, A.; Ismail, M.; Ismail, Z.; Ismail, F.; Iwamoto, H.; Jack, K.; Jacob, R.; Jafarov, F.; Jafri, W.; Jahshan, H.; Jalal, P. K.; Jancoriene, L.; Janicko, M.; Jayasena, H.; Jefferies, M.; Jha, V.; Ji, F.; Ji, Y.; Jia, J.; Jiang, C.; Jiang, N.; Jiang, Z. -Z.; Jin, X.; Jin, Y.; Jing, X.; Jingyu, Q.; Jinjolava, M.; Jong, F. H. H.; Jucov, A.; Julius, I.; Kaddah, M.; Kamada, Y.; Kamal, A.; Kamal, E. M.; Kamel, A. S.; Kao, J. -H.; Karin, M.; Karlas, T.; Kashwaa, M.; Katsidzira, L.; Kaya, E.; Kayasseh, M. A.; Keenan, B.; Keklikkiran, C.; Keml, W.; Khalaf, D. K.; Khalefa, R.; Khamis, S.; Khater, D.; Khattab, H.; Khavkin, A.; Khlynova, O.; Khmis, N.; Kobyliak, N.; Koffas, A.; Koike, K.; Kok, K. Y. Y.; Koller, T.; Komas, N. P.; Korochanskaya, N. V.; Koulla, Y.; Koya, S.; Kraft, C.; Kraja, B.; Krawczyk, M.; Kuchay, M. S.; Kulkarni, A. V.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, M.; Lakoh, S.; Lam, P.; Lan, L.; Lange, N. F.; Lankarani, K. B.; Lanthier, N.; Lapshyna, K.; Lashen, S. A.; Laure, K. N. J.; Lazebnik, L.; Lebrec, D.; Lee, S. S.; Lee, W. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Leeming, D. J.; Leite, N. C.; Leon, R.; Lesmana, C. R. A.; Li, J.; Li, Q.; Li, J.; Li, Y. -Y.; Li, Y.; Li, L.; Li, M.; Li, Y.; Liang, H.; Lijuan, T.; Lim, S. G.; Lim, L. -L.; Lin, S.; Lin, H. -C.; Lin, R.; Lithy, R.; Liu, Y.; Liu, Y.; Liu, X.; Liu, W. -Y.; Liu, S.; Liu, K.; Liu, T.; Lonardo, A.; Lopez, M. B.; Lopez-Benages, E.; Lopez-Jaramillo, P.; Lu, H.; Lu, L. G.; Lu, Y.; Lubel, J.; Lui, R.; Lupasco, I.; Luzina, E.; Lv, X. -H.; Lynch, K.; Ma, H. -L.; Machado, M. V.; Maduka, N.; Madzharova, K.; Magdaong, R.; Mahadeva, S.; Mahfouz, A.; Mahmood, N. R. K. N.; Mahmoud, E.; Mahrous, M.; Maiwall, R.; Majeed, A.; Majumdar, A.; Mak, L.; Maklouf, M. M.; Malekzadeh, R.; Mandato, C.; Mangia, A.; Mann, J.; Mansour, H. H.; Mansouri, A.; Mantovani, A.; Mao, J. Q.; Maramag, F.; Marchesini, G.; Marcus, C.; Marinho, R. A. R. T.; Martinez-Chantar, M. L.; Martins, A. A. S.; Marwan, R.; Mason, K. F.; Masoud, G.; Massoud, M. N.; Matamoros, M. A.; Mateos, R. M.; Mawed, A.; Mbanya, J. C.; Mbendi, C.; Mccolaugh, L.; Mcleod, D.; Medina, J. F. R.; Megahed, A.; Mehrez, M.; Memon, I.; Merat, S.; Mercado, R.; Mesbah,

Global multi-stakeholder endorsement of the MAFLD definition

none1055noneMendez-Sanchez N.; Bugianesi E.; Gish R.G.; Lammert F.; Tilg H.; Nguyen M.H.; Sarin S.K.; Fabrellas N.; Zelber-Sagi S.; Fan J.-G.; Shiha G.; Targher G.; Zheng M.-H.; Chan W.-K.; Vinker S.; Kawaguchi T.; Castera L.; Yilmaz Y.; Korenjak M.; Spearman C.W.; Ungan M.; Palmer M.; El-Shabrawi M.; Gruss H.-J.; Dufour J.-F.; Dhawan A.; Wedemeyer H.; George J.; Valenti L.; Fouad Y.; Romero-Gomez M.; Eslam M.; Abate M.L.; Abbas B.; Abbassy A.A.; Abd El Ghany W.; Abd Elkhalek A.; Abd ElMajeed E.; Abdalgaber M.; AbdAllah M.; Abdallah M.; Abdallah N.; Abdelaleem S.; Abdelghani Y.; Abdelghany W.; Abdelhalim S.M.; Abdelhamid W.; Abdelhamid N.; Abdelkader N.A.; Abdelkreem E.; Abdelmohsen A.M.; Abdelrahman A.A.; Abd-elsalam S.M.; Abdeltawab D.; Abduh A.; Abdulhakam N.; Abdulla M.; Abedpoor N.; Abenavoli L.; Aberg F.; Ablack O.; Abo elftouh M.; Abo-Amer Y.E.-E.; Aboubkr A.; Aboud A.; Abouelnaga A.M.; Aboufarrag G.A.; Aboutaleb A.; Abundis L.; Adali G.; Adames E.; Adams L.; Adda D.; Adel N.; Adel N.; Adel Sayed M.; Afaa T.J.; Afredj N.; Aghayeva G.; Aghemo A.; Aguilar-Salinas C.A.; Ahlenstiel G.; Ahmady W.; Ahmed W.; Ahmed A.; Ahmed S.N.; Ahmed H.M.; Ahmed R.; Aigner E.; Akarsu M.; Akroush M.; Akyuz U.; Al Mahtab M.; Al Qadiri T.; Al Rawahi Y.; AL rubaee R.; Al Saffar M.; Alam S.; Al-Ani Z.; Albillos A.; Alboraie M.; Al-Busafi S.; Al-Emam M.; Alharthi J.; Ali K.; Ali B.A.; Ali M.; Ali R.A.R.; Alisi A.; AL-Khafaji A.R.; Alkhatry M.; Aller R.; Almansoury Y.; Al-Naamani K.; Alnakeeb A.; Alonso A.; Alqahtani S.A.; Alrabadi L.; Alswat K.; Altaher M.; Altamimi T.; Altamirano J.; Alvares-da-Silva M.R.; Aly E.A.M.; Alzahaby A.; Alzamzamy A.; Amano K.; Amer M.A.; Amin M.A.; Amin S.A.; Amir A.A.; Ampuero J.; Anas N.; Andreone P.; Andriamandimby S.F.; Anees M.; Angela P.; Antonios M.; Arafat W.; Araya J.M.; Armendariz-Borunda J.; Armstrong M.J.; Ashktorab H.; Aspichueta P.; Assal F.; Atef M.; Attia D.; Atwa H.; Awad R.; Awad M.A.E.; Awny S.; Awolowo O.; Awuku Y.A.; Ayada I.; Aye T.T.; Ayman S.; Ayman H.; Ayoub H.; Azmy H.M.; Babaran R.P.; Badreldin O.; Badry A.; Bahcecioglu I.H.; Bahour A.; Bai J.; Balaban Y.; Balasubramanyam M.; Bamakhrama K.; Banales J.M.; Bangaru B.; Bao J.; Barahona J.S.; Barakat S.; Barbalho S.M.; Barbra B.; Barranco B.; Barrera F.; Baumann U.; Bazeed S.; Bech E.; Benayad A.; Benesic A.; Bernstein D.; Bessone F.; Birney S.; Bisseye C.; Blake M.; Bobat B.; Bonfrate L.; Bordin D.S.; Bosques-Padilla F.; Boursier J.; Boushab B.M.; Bowen D.; Bravo P.M.; Brennan P.N.; Bright B.; Broekaert I.; Buque X.; Burgos-Santamaria D.; Burman J.; Busetto L.; Byrne C.D.; Cabral-Prodigalidad P.A.I.; Cabrera-Alvarez G.; Cai W.; Cainelli F.; Caliskan A.R.; Canbay A.; Cano-Contreras A.; Cao H.-X.; Cao Z.; Carrion A.; Carubbi F.; Casanovas T.; Castellanos Fernandez M.I.; Chai J.; Chan S.P.; Charatcharoenwitthaya P.; Chavez-Tapia N.; Chayama K.; Chen J.; Chen L.; Chen Z.-W.; Chen H.; Chen S.-D.; Chen Q.; Chen Y.; Chen G.; Chen E.-Q.; Chen F.; Chen P.-J.; Cheng R.; Cheng W.; Chieh J.T.W.; Chokr I.; Cholongitas E.; Choudhury A.; Chowdhury A.; Chukwudike E.S.; Ciardullo S.; Clayton M.; Clement K.; Cloa M.M.; Coccia C.; Collazos C.; Colombo M.; Cosar A.M.; Cotrim H.P.; Couillerot J.; Coulibaly A.; Crespo G.; Crespo J.; Cruells M.; Cua I.H.Y.; Dabbous H.K.; Dalekos G.N.; D'Alia P.; Dan L.; Dao V.H.; Darwish M.; Datz C.; Davalos-Moscol M.B.; Dawoud H.; de Careaga B.O.; de Knegt R.; de Ledinghen V.; de Silva J.; Debzi N.; Decraecker M.; Del Pozo E.; Delgado T.C.; Delgado-Blanco M.; Dembinski L.; Depina A.; Derbala M.; Desalegn H.; Desbois-Mouthon C.; Desoky M.; Dev A.; Di Ciaula A.; Diago M.; Diallo I.; Diaz L.A.; Dirchwolf M.; Dongiovanni P.; Dorofeyev A.; Dou X.; Douglas M.W.; Doulberis M.; Dovia C.K.; Doyle A.; Dragojevic I.; Drenth J.P.; Duan X.; Dulskas A.; Dumitrascu D.L.; Duncan O.; Dusabejambo V.; Dwawhi R.S.N.A.; Eiketsu S.; El Amrousy D.; El Deeb A.; El Deriny G.; El Din H.S.; El Kamshishy S.; El Kassas M.; El Raziky M.; Elagamy O.A.; Elakel W.; Elalfy D.; Elaraby H.; ElAwady H.; Elbadawy R.; Eldash H.H.; Eldefrawy M.S.; Elecharri C.L.; Elfaramawy A.; Elfatih M.; Elfiky M.; Elgamsy M.; Elgendy M.; El-Guindi M.A.; Elhussieny N.; Eliwa A.M.; Elkabbany Z.; El-Khayat H.; El-Koofy N.M.; Elmetwalli A.; Elrabat A.; El-Raey F.; Elrashdy F.; Elsahhar M.; Elsaid E.M.; Elsayed S.; Elsayed H.; Elsayed A.; Elsayed A.M.; Elsayed H.; El-Serafy M.; Elsharkawy A.M.; Elsheemy R.Y.; Elshemy E.E.; Elsherbini S.; Eltoukhy N.; Elwakil R.; Emad O.; Emad S.; Embabi M.; Ergenc I.; Ermolova T.; Esmat G.; Esmat D.M.; Estupinan E.C.; Ettair S.; Eugen T.; Ezz-Eldin M.; Falcon L.P.V.; Fan Y.-C.; Fandari S.; Farag M.; Farahat T.M.; Fares E.M.; Fares M.; Fassio E.; Fathy H.; Fathy D.; Fathy W.; Fayed S.; Feng D.; Feng G.; Fernandez-Bermejo M.; Ferreira C.T.; Ferrer J.D.; Forbes A.; Fouad R.; Fouad H.M.; Frisch T.; Fujii H.; Fukunaga S.; Fukunishi S.; Fulya H.; Furuhashi M.; Gaber Y.; Galang A.J.G.; Gallardo J.C.; Galloso R.; Gamal M.; Gamal R.; Gamal H.; Gan J.; Ganbold A.; Gao X.; Garas G.; Garba T.; Garcia-Cortes M.; Garcia-Monzon C.; Garcia-Samaniego J.; Gastaldelli A.; Gatica M.; Gatley E.; Gegeshidze T.; Geng B.; Ghazinyan H.; Ghoneem S.; Giacomelli L.; Giannelli G.; Giannini E.G.; Giefer M.; Gines P.; Girala M.; Giraudi P.J.; Goh G.B.-B.; Gomaa A.A.; Gong B.; Gonzales D.H.C.; Gonzalez H.C.; Gonzalez-Huezo M.S.; Graupera I.; Grgurevic I.; Gronbaek H.; Gu X.; Guan L.; Gueye I.; Guingane A.N.; Gul O.O.; Gul C.B.; Guo Q.; Gupta P.P.; Gurakar A.; Gutierrez J.C.R.; Habib G.; Hafez A.; Hagman E.; Halawa E.; Hamdy O.; Hamed A.E.; Hamed D.H.; Hamid S.; Hamoudi W.; Han Y.; Haridy J.; Haridy H.; Harris D.C.H.H.; Hart M.; Hasan F.; Hashim A.; Hassan I.; Hassan A.; Hassan E.A.; Hassan A.A.; Hassan M.S.; Hassanin F.; Hassnine A.; Haukeland J.W.; Hawal A.I.M.; He J.; He Q.; He Y.; He F.-P.; Hegazy M.; Hegazy A.; Henegil O.; Hernandez N.; Hernandez-Guerra M.; Higuera-de-la-Tijera F.; Hindy I.; Hirota K.; Ho L.C.; Hodge A.; Hosny M.; Hou X.; Huang J.-F.; Huang Y.; Huang Z.; Huang Y.; Huang A.; Huang X.-P.; Hui-ping S.; Hunyady B.; Hussein M.A.; Hussein O.; Hussien S.M.; Ibanez-Samaniego L.; Ibdah J.; Ibrahim L.; Ibrahim M.; Ibrahim I.; Icaza-Chavez M.E.; Idelbi S.; Idilman R.I.; Ikeda M.; Indolfi G.; Invernizzi F.; Irshad I.; Isa H.M.A.; Iskandar N.J.; Ismaiel A.; Ismail M.; Ismail Z.; Ismail F.; Iwamoto H.; Jack K.; Jacob R.; Jafarov F.; Jafri W.; Jahshan H.; Jalal P.K.; Jancoriene L.; Janicko M.; Jayasena H.; Jefferies M.; Jha V.; Ji F.; Ji Y.; Jia J.; Jiang C.; Jiang N.; Jiang Z.-Z.; Jin X.; Jin Y.; Jing X.; Jingyu Q.; Jinjolava M.; Jong F.H.H.; Jucov A.; Julius I.; Kaddah M.; Kamada Y.; kamal A.; Kamal E.M.; Kamel A.S.; Kao J.-H.; Karin M.; Karlas T.; Kashwaa M.; Katsidzira L.; Kaya E.; Kayasseh M.A.; Keenan B.; Keklikkiran C.; Keml W.; Khalaf D.K.; Khalefa R.; Khamis S.; Khater D.; khattab H.; Khavkin A.; Khlynova O.; Khmis N.; Kobyliak N.; Koffas A.; Koike K.; Kok K.Y.Y.; Koller T.; Komas N.P.; Korochanskaya N.V.; Koulla Y.; Koya S.; Kraft C.; Kraja B.; Krawczyk M.; Kuchay M.S.; Kulkarni A.V.; Kumar A.; Kumar M.; Lakoh S.; Lam P.; Lan L.; Lange N.F.; Lankarani K.B.; Lanthier N.; Lapshyna K.; Lashen S.A.; Laure K.N.J.; Lazebnik L.; Lebrec D.; Lee S.S.; Lee W.S.; Lee Y.Y.; Leeming D.J.; Leite N.C.; Leon R.; Lesmana C.R.A.; Li J.; Li Q.; Li J.; Li Y.-Y.; Li Y.; Li L.; Li M.; li Y.; Liang H.; Lijuan T.; Lim S.G.; Lim L.-L.; Lin S.; Lin H.-C.; Lin R.; Lithy R.; Liu Y.; Liu Y.; Liu X.; Liu W.-Y.; Liu S.; Liu K.; Liu T.; Lonardo A.; Lopez M.B.; Lopez-Benages E.; Lopez-Jaramillo P.; Lu H.; Lu L.G.; Lu Y.; Lubel J.; Lui R.; Lupasco I.; Luzina E.; Lv X.-H.; Lynch K.; Ma H.-L.; Machado M.V.; Maduka N.; Madzharova K.; Magdaong R.; Mahadeva S.; Mahfouz A.; Mahmood N.R.K.N.; Mahmoud E.; Mahrous M.; Maiwall R.; Majeed A.; Majumdar A.; Mak L.; Maklouf M.M.; Malekzadeh R.; Mandato C.; Mangia A.; Mann J.; Mansour H.H.; Mansouri A.; Mantovani A.; Mao J.Q.; Maramag F.; Marchesini G.; Marcus C.; Marinho R.A.R.T.; Martinez-Chantar M.L.; Martins A.A.S.; Marwan R.; Mason K.F.; Masoud G.; Massoud M.N.; Matamoros M.A.; Mateos R.M.; Mawed A.; Mbanya J.C.; Mbendi C.; McColaugh L.; McLeod D.; Medina J.F.R.; Megahed A.; Mehrez M.; Memon I.; Merat S.; Mercado R.; Mesbah A.; Meskini T.; Metwally M.; Metwaly R.; Miao L.; Micah E.; Miele L.; Milivojevic V.; Milovanovic T.; Mina Y.L.; Mishkovik M.; Mishriki A.; Mitchell T.; Mohamed A.; Mohamed M.; Mohamed S.; Mohammed S.; Mohammed A.; Mohan V.; Mohie S.; Mokhtar A.; Moniem R.; Montilla M.S.; Morales J.A.O.; Morata M.M.S.; Moreno-Planas J.M.; Morise S.; Mosaad S.; Moselhy M.; Mostafa A.M.; Mostafa E.; Mouane N.; Mousa N.; Moustafa H.M.; Msherif A.; Muller K.; Munoz C.; Munoz-Urribarri A.B.; Murillo O.A.; Mustapha F.I.; Muzurovic E.; Nabil Y.; Nafady S.; Nagamatsu A.; Nakajima A.; Nakano D.; Nan Y.; Nascimbeni F.; Naseef M.S.; Nashat N.; Natalia T.; Negro F.; Nersesov A.V.; Neuman M.; Ng'wanasayi M.; Ni Y.; Nicoll A.; Niizeki T.; Nikolova D.; Ningning W.; Niriella M.; Nogoibaeva K.A.; Nordien R.; O Sullivan C.; 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Roshdi G.R.; Rosso N.; Ruf A.; Ruiz P.C.; Runes N.R.; Ruzzenente A.; Ryan M.; Saad A.; Sabbagh E.B.; Sabbah M.; Saber S.; Sabrey R.; Sabry R.; Saeed M.A.; Said D.; Said E.M.; Sakr M.A.; Salah Y.; Salama R.M.; Salama A.; Saleh H.; Saleh A.; Salem A.; Salem A.T.; Salifou A.; Salih A.F.; Salman A.; Samouda H.; Sanai F.; Sanchez-Avila J.F.; Sanker L.; Sano T.; Sanz M.; Saparbu T.; Sawhney R.; Sayed F.; Sayed S.A.; Sayed A.O.; Sayed M.; Sebastiani G.; Secadas L.; Sediqi K.Q.; Seif S.; Semida N.; Senates E.; Serban E.D.; Serfaty L.; Seto W.-K.; Sghaier I.; Sha M.; Shabaan H.M.; Shalaby L.; Shaltout I.; Sharara A.I.; Sharma V.; Shawa I.T.; Shawkat A.; Shawky N.; Shehata O.; Sheils S.; Shewaye A.B.; Shi G.; Shi J.; Shimose S.; Shirono T.; Shou L.; Shrestha A.; Shui G.; Sievert W.; Sigurdardottir S.; Sira M.M.; Siradj R.; Sison C.; Smyth L.; Soliman R.; Sollano J.D.; Sombie R.; Sonderup M.; Sood S.; Soriano G.; Stedman C.A.M.; Stefanyuk O.; Stimac D.; Strasser S.; Strnad P.; Stuart K.; Su W.; Su M.; 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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p