Constructing proxy records from age models (COPRA)

Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. Available interpolation procedures between age control points are often inadequately reported, and very few translate age uncertainties to proxy uncertainties. Most available modeling algorithms do not allow incorporation of layer counted intervals to improve the confidence limits of the age model in question. We present a framework that allows detection and interactive handling of age reversals and hiatuses, depth-age modeling, and proxy-record reconstruction. Monte Carlo simulation and a translation procedure are used to assign a precise time scale to climate proxies and to translate dating uncertainties to uncertainties in the proxy values. The presented framework allows integration of incremental relative dating information to improve the final age model. The free software package COPRA1.0 facilitates easy interactive usage

COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models (COPRA)

Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. Available interpolation procedures between age control points are often inadequately reported, and very few translate age uncertainties to proxy uncertainties. Most available modeling algorithms do not allow incorporation of layer counted intervals to improve the confidence limits of the age model in question. We present a framework that allows detection and interactive handling of age reversals and hiatuses, depth-age modeling, and proxy-record reconstruction. Monte Carlo simulation and a translation procedure are used to assign a precise time scale to climate proxies and to translate dating uncertainties to uncertainties in the proxy values. The presented framework allows integration of incremental relative dating information to improve the final age model. The free software package COPRA1.0 facilitates easy interactive usage

Lead content and isotopic composition in submound and recent soils of the Volga upland

Literature data on the historical reconstructions of the atmospheric lead deposition in Europe and the isotopic composition of the ores that are potential sources of the anthropogenic lead in the atmospheric deposition in the lower Volga steppes during different time periods have been compiled. The effect of the increasing anthropogenic lead deposition recorded since the Bronze Age on the level of soil contamination has been investigated. For the first time paleosol buried under a burial mound of the Bronze Age has been used as a reference point to assess of the current contamination level. The contents and isotopic compositions of the mobile and total lead have been determined in submound paleosols of different ages and their recent remote and roadside analogues. An increase in the content and fraction of the mobile lead and a shift of its isotopic composition toward less radiogenic values (typical for lead from the recent anthropogenic sources) has been revealed when going from a Bronze-Age paleosol to a recent soil. In the Bronze-Age soil, the isotopic composition of the mobile lead is inherited from the parent rock to a greater extent than in the modern soils, where the lead is enriched with the less radiogenic component. The effect of the anthropogenic component is traced in the analysis of the mobile lead, but it is barely visible for the total lead. An exception is provided by the recent roadside soils characterized by increased contents and the significantly less radiogenic isotopic composition of the mobile and total lead

Millennial changes in North American wildfire and soil activity over the last glacial cycle

Climate changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial cycle were dominated by the slow waxing and waning of the North American ice sheet as well as by intermittent Dansgaard-­‐Oeschger (DO) events. However prior to the last deglaciation, little is known about the response of North American vegetation to such rapid climate changes and especially about the response of biomass burning, an important factor for regional changes in radiative forcing. Here we use continuous, high-­‐resolution ammonium (NH4+) records derived from the NGRIP and GRIP ice cores to document both North American NH4+ background emissions from soils and wildfire frequency over the last 110,000 yr. Soil emissions increased on orbital timescales with warmer climate, related to the northward expansion of vegetation due to reduced ice-­‐covered areas. During Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 DO warm events, a higher fire recurrence rate is recorded, while NH4+ soil emissions rose only slowly during longer interstadial warm periods, in line with slow ice sheet shrinkage and delayed ecosystem changes. Our results indicate that sudden warming events had little impact on NH4+ soil emissions and NH4+ aerosol transport to Greenland during the glacial but triggered a significant increase in the frequency of fire occurrence.This paper has greatly benefitted from the Sir Nicholas Shackleton fellowship, Clare Hall, University of Cambridge, U.K., awarded to HF in 2014. The Division for Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern acknowledges the long-­‐term financial support of ice core research by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) and the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research. EW is supported by a Royal Society professorship. NGRIP is directed and organized by the Department of Geophysics at the Niels Bohr Institute for Astronomy, Physics and Geophysics, University of Copenhagen. It is supported by funding agencies in Denmark (SNF), Belgium (FNRS-­‐CFB), France (IPEV and INSU/CNRS), Germany (AWI), Iceland (RannIs), Japan (MEXT), Sweden (SPRS), Switzerland (SNSF) and the USA (NSF, Office of Polar Programs).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo249

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global Prevalence of Anemia Among Type 2 Diabetic Adult Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Mesay Arkew, Haftu Asmerom, Kabtamu Gemechu, Tewodros Tesfa School of Medical Laboratory Sciences, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, EthiopiaCorrespondence: Mesay Arkew, School of Medical Laboratory Sciences, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O. Box: 235, Harar, Ethiopia, Tel +251926678740, Email [email protected]: Anemia is a common and often overlooked hematological change observed in patients with diabetes mellitus. However, there is no global survey or health registry that estimates the pooled prevalence of anemia in patients with type 2 diabetes. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the global pooled prevalence of anemia among adult patients with type 2 diabetes.Methods: This study was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis guidelines. The study protocol was registered on PROSPERO with the reference number (CRD42022327135), and the link provided (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022327135) display the published methodology. Previously published articles were searched in PubMed/Medline, Cochrane Library, WHO Global Index Medicus, African Journals Online, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and Google from October 26 to November 09, 2022. The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal tool. Random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of anemia. The degree of heterogeneity among the included studies was assessed using I2 statistics. Publication bias was detected using funnel plot symmetry analysis supplemented by Egger’s and Begg’s tests.Results: Twenty-four studies with a total number of 19,118 participants were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The overall pooled prevalence of anemia among type 2 diabetic adult patients was 27.0% (95% CI: 24.0, 31.0, I2 = 96.45%; P< 0.001). Geographical and time-based subgroup analysis showed that higher prevalence of anemia was observed in Africa region 28.0% (95% CI: 17.0, 39.0) and from 2015 to 2022, 28.0% (95% CI: 24.0, 33.0), respectively.Conclusion: Anemia is a moderate public health problem among adult patients with type 2 diabetes. Nearly one in four patients with type 2 diabetes develops anemia. Therefore, considering the negative impact of anemia, it is important to include anemia screening in the routine assessment of diabetes-related complications.Keywords: adult, anemia, inflammation, type 2 diabetes, meta-analysis, systematic revie

Hematological Abnormalities Among Malaria Infected Adult Patients in Association with ABO Blood Groups at Jinella Health Center, Harar, Eastern Ethiopia

Haftu Asmerom, Kabtamu Gemechu, Beza Sileshi, Mesay Arkew School of Medical Laboratory Sciences, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, EthiopiaCorrespondence: Haftu Asmerom, School of Medical Laboratory Sciences, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O. Box: 235, Harar, Ethiopia, Tel +251910089878, Email [email protected]: Hematological abnormalities are a common complication of malaria infection. However, there is a paucity of evidence regarding it among malaria-infected adult patients in association with the ABO blood group in Ethiopia, particularly in the Harari Region. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the hematological abnormalities among malaria-infected adult patients in association with ABO blood groups at Jinella Health Center, Harar, Eastern Ethiopia.Methods: An institutional-based cross-sectional study was conducted from July 10, 2022, to January 10, 2023. Four milliliters of venous blood were collected from each study participant. Drops of blood were used for blood film preparation. ABO blood group was determined by agglutination test using monoclonal anti-sera (Agape Diagnostics Ltd., India). A complete blood count was done using the DxH 800 (Beckman Coulter, Inc, Miami, FL) hematology analyzer. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 26. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models were fitted. The level of significance was declared at a p-value of < 0.05.Results: The study revealed that 47.2% (95% CI: 41.0 53.6) of the participants were anemic. Being female (AOR = 3.18, 95% CI = 1.67, 6.04), having the A blood group (AOR = 2.75, CI = 1.20, 6.31), and being infected with P. falciparum (AOR = 2.64, CI = 1.26, 5.53) were all significantly associated with malaria anemia. The overall prevalence of thrombocytopenia was also 67.7% (95% CI: 61.7– 73.4%). It was significantly associated with P. falciparum infection (AOR = 8.03, CI = 3.53, 18.25) and high parasitemia levels (AOR = 4.40, CI = 1.57, 12.32).Conclusion: Patients with malaria who belonged to the “A” blood group in the study area had anemia as a serious health problem. Hence, frequently checking for anemia in patients with malaria who have blood group “A” can help with early detection and better management of anemia.Keywords: malaria, hematological abnormalities, blood groups, Harar, Ethiopi

COnstructing Proxy-Record Age models (COPRA)

Reliable age models are fundamental for any palaeoclimate reconstruction. Available interpolation procedures between age control points are often inadequately reported, and very few translate age uncertainties to proxy uncertainties. Most available modeling algorithms do not allow incorporation of layer counted intervals to improve the confidence limits of the age model in question. We present a framework that allows detection and interactive handling of age reversals and hiatuses, depth-age modeling, and proxy-record reconstruction. Monte Carlo simulation and a translation procedure are used to assign a precise time scale to climate proxies and to translate dating uncertainties to uncertainties in the proxy values. The presented framework allows integration of incremental relative dating information to improve the final age model. The free software package COPRA1.0 facilitates easy interactive usage

Development and Disintegration of Maya Political Systems in Response to Climate Change

The role of climate change in the development and demise of Classic Maya civilization (300 to 1000 C.E.) remains controversial because of the absence of well-dated climate and archaeological sequences. We present a precisely dated subannual climate record for the past 2000 years from Yok Balum Cave, Belize. From comparison of this record with historical events compiled from well-dated stone monuments, we propose that anomalously high rainfall favored unprecedented population expansion and the proliferation of political centers between 440 and 660 C.E. This was followed by a drying trend between 660 and 1000 C.E. that triggered the balkanization of polities, increased warfare, and the asynchronous disintegration of polities, followed by population collapse in the context of an extended drought between 1020 and 1100 C.E