Hidden-Markov Program Algebra with iteration

We use Hidden Markov Models to motivate a quantitative compositional semantics for noninterference-based security with iteration, including a refinement- or "implements" relation that compares two programs with respect to their information leakage; and we propose a program algebra for source-level reasoning about such programs, in particular as a means of establishing that an "implementation" program leaks no more than its "specification" program. This joins two themes: we extend our earlier work, having iteration but only qualitative, by making it quantitative; and we extend our earlier quantitative work by including iteration. We advocate stepwise refinement and source-level program algebra, both as conceptual reasoning tools and as targets for automated assistance. A selection of algebraic laws is given to support this view in the case of quantitative noninterference; and it is demonstrated on a simple iterated password-guessing attack

KOREAN DANCE AND PANSORI IN D.C.: INTERACTIONS WITH OTHERS, THE BODY, AND COLLECTIVE MEMORY AT A KOREAN PERFORMING ARTS STUDIO

This thesis is the result of seventeen months' field work as a dance and pansori student at the Washington Korean Dance Company studio. It examines the studio experience, focusing on three levels of interaction. First, I describe participants' interactions with each other, which create a strong studio community and a women's "Korean space" at the intersection of culturally hybrid lives. Second, I examine interactions with the physical challenges presented by these arts and explain the satisfaction that these challenges can generate using Csikszentmihalyi's theory of "optimal experience" or "flow." Third, I examine interactions with discourse on the meanings and histories of these arts. I suggest that participants can find deeper significance in performing these arts as a result of this discourse, forming intellectual and emotional bonds to imagined people of the past and present. Finally, I explain how all these levels of interaction can foster in the participant an increasingly rich and complex identity

The Welfare Effects of Pfiesteria-Related Fish Kills: A Contingent Behavior Analysis of Seafood Consumers

We use contingent behavior analysis to study the effects of pfiesteria-related fish kills on the demand for seafood in the Mid-Atlantic region. We estimate a set of demand difference models based on individual responses to questions about seafood consumption in the presence of fish kills and with different amounts of information provided about health risks. We use a random-effects Tobit model to control for correlation across each observation and to account for censoring. We find that (i) pfiesteria-related fish kills have a significant negative effect on the demand for seafood even though the fish kills pose no known threat to consumers through sea-food consumption, (ii) seafood consumers are not responsive to expert risk information designed to reassure them that seafood is safe in the presence of a fish kill, and (iii) a mandatory seafood inspection program largely eliminates the welfare loss incurred due to misinformation.pfiesteria, seafood demand, non-market valuation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The Welfare Effects of Pfiesteria-Related Fish Kills in Seafood Markets: A Contingent Behavior Analysis

We use contingent behavior analysis to study the effects of Pfiesteria related fish kills on the demand for seafood in the Mid-Atlantic region. We use a phone-mail-phone survey to look at the effects of various information provision mechanisms used to ameliorate the effects of misinformation regarding fish kills. A set of demand difference models are estimated based on individual responses to multiple questions about seafood consumption with and without fish kills present and with various health risk information treatments. Random effects Tobit models are used to control for the panel nature of responses and natural censoring of the stated responses. We find that 1) Pfiesteria related fish kills have a significant negative effect on the demand for seafood, 2) seafood consumers are nonresponsive to expert risk information designed to reassure consumers that seafood is safe in the presence of a fish kill, and 3) a mandatory seafood inspection program completely eliminates avoidance costs incurred due to misinformation. We estimate that the aggregate avoidance costs incurred in the month immediately following a Pfiesteria related fish kill is $50-$130 million.

Controlling an Invasive Species through Consumption: The Case of Lionfish as an Impure Public Good

Nonnative lionfish were introduced to the coastal waters of southern Florida about 30 years ago. Since then, lionfish populations have rapidly grown and spread throughout the Caribbean, Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Without a significant predator and a voracious appetite, the lionfish invasion has significantly altered the population dynamics of native marine species. Examining the efficacy of potential methods to control the growing population of lionfish is now a top priority across Gulf state fisheries. One strategy being advocated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) is a “if you can’t beat them, eat them” campaign. As lionfish are not available at market, we conduct a field experiment to elicit seafood consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) to eat lionfish as a private good and for the public good component of a campaign to help control the growing population. Using the Becker-Degroot-Marschak method and eliciting WTP values from 313 seafood consumers, we find that consumers’ baseline WTP (based on prior-held beliefs) is about $5.50 for a 3-ounce serving. This indicates that a demand exists that could potentially lead to a viable commercial lionfish fishery to develop in the Gulf. Further, we find that consumers value the public good component of their behavior and are willing to pay an additional$1.58 above baseline to support the campaign. Disentangling this effect, we find that $0.63 of this premium is due to consumers’ WTP to help control the growing population, with an additional$0.95 to help avoid the localized extinction of reef-fish species.Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, held July 11-15, 2016 at Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Center (AECC), Aberdeen, Scotland, UK

A qualitative study of the activities performed by people involved in clinical decision support: recommended practices for success

Objective: To describe the activities performed by people involved in clinical decision support (CDS) at leading sites. Materials and methods We conducted ethnographic observations at seven diverse sites with a history of excellence in CDS using the Rapid Assessment Process and analyzed the data using a series of card sorts, informed by Linstone's Multiple Perspectives Model. Results: We identified 18 activities and grouped them into four areas. Area 1: Fostering relationships across the organization, with activities (a) training and support, (b) visibility/presence on the floor, (c) liaising between people, (d) administration and leadership, (e) project management, (f) cheerleading/buy-in/sponsorship, (g) preparing for CDS implementation. Area 2: Assembling the system with activities (a) providing technical support, (b) CDS content development, (c) purchasing products from vendors (d) knowledge management, (e) system integration. Area 3: Using CDS to achieve the organization's goals with activities (a) reporting, (b) requirements-gathering/specifications, (c) monitoring CDS, (d) linking CDS to goals, (e) managing data. Area 4: Participation in external policy and standards activities (this area consists of only a single activity). We also identified a set of recommendations associated with these 18 activities. Discussion All 18 activities we identified were performed at all sites, although the way they were organized into roles differed substantially. We consider these activities critical to the success of a CDS program. Conclusions: A series of activities are performed by sites strong in CDS, and sites adopting CDS should ensure they incorporate these activities into their efforts

Mapping the stray domestic cat (Felis catus) population in New Zealand: Species distribution modelling with a climate change scenario and implications for protected areas

Species distribution models of stray cats were developed using two types of occurrence data: (i) a combined dataset of stray cats and cat colonies in Auckland and projected to the wider New Zealand area; and (ii) population density as an analogue for country-wide stray cat occurrence. These occurrence data, together with sets of environmental variables were used as input to the Maxent modelling tool to produce maps of suitability for the species. Environmental variables used in the models consist of current bioclimatic conditions, and a future climate scenario (RCP8.5 for year 2070 CCSM model). Commonly occurring bias in the modelling process due to latitude, the area for selecting background points in model evaluation, inherent spatial autocorrelation of occurrence points, and correlated bioclimatic variables were explicitly addressed. Results show that the North Island consistently provide more suitable areas for stray cats with increased suitability in a high emission climate change condition. Key protected areas at risk from the increased suitability to stray cats are also presented

Spatio-temporal variation in predation by urban domestic cats (Felis catus) and the acceptability of possible management actions in the UK

Urban domestic cat (Felis catus) populations can attain exceedingly high densities and are not limited by natural prey availability. This has generated concerns that they may negatively affect prey populations, leading to calls for management. We enlisted cat-owners to record prey returned home to estimate patterns of predation by free-roaming pets in different localities within the town of Reading, UK and questionnaire surveys were used to quantify attitudes to different possible management strategies. Prey return rates were highly variable: only 20% of cats returned ≥4 dead prey annually. Consequently, approximately 65% of owners received no prey in a given season, but this declined to 22% after eight seasons. The estimated mean predation rate was 18.3 prey cat−1 year−1 but this varied markedly both spatially and temporally: per capita predation rates declined with increasing cat density. Comparisons with estimates of the density of six common bird prey species indicated that cats killed numbers equivalent to adult density on c. 39% of occasions. Population modeling studies suggest that such predation rates could significantly reduce the size of local bird populations for common urban species. Conversely, most urban residents did not consider cat predation to be a significant problem. Collar-mounted anti-predation devices were the only management action acceptable to the majority of urban residents (65%), but were less acceptable to cat-owners because of perceived risks to their pets; only 24% of cats were fitted with such devices. Overall, cat predation did appear to be of sufficient magnitude to affect some prey populations, although further investigation of some key aspects of cat predation is warranted. Management of the predation behavior of urban cat populations in the UK is likely to be challenging and achieving this would require considerable engagement with cat owners