Managing the CCAFS Theme by Region matrix for international public goods and development outcomes

This review was commissioned to undertake an evaluation of how the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Theme by Region matrix is being managed to deliver on International Public Goods (IPGs) and development outcomes

Managing cattle grazing intensity: effects on soil organic matter and soil nitrogen

Extensive cattle grazing is the dominant land use in northern Australia. It has been suggested that grazing intensity and rainfall have profound effects on the dynamics of soil nutrients in northern Australia’s semi-arid rangelands. Previous studies have found positive, neutral and negative effects of grazing pressure on soil nutrients. These inconsistencies could be due to short-term experiments that do not capture the slow dynamics of some soil nutrients and the effects of interannual variability in rainfall. In a long-term cattle grazing trial in northern Australia on Brown Sodosol–Yellow Kandosol complex, we analysed soil organic matter and mineral nitrogen in surface soils (0–10 cm depth) 11, 12 and 16 years after trial establishment on experimental plots representing moderate stocking (stocked at the long-term carrying capacity for the region) and heavy stocking (stocked at twice the long-term carrying capacity). Higher soil organic matter was found under heavy stocking, although grazing treatment had little effect on mineral and total soil nitrogen. Interannual variability had a large effect on soil mineral nitrogen, but not on soil organic matter, suggesting that soil nitrogen levels observed in this soil complex may be affected by other indirect pathways, such as climate. The effect of interannual variability in rainfall and the effects of other soil types need to be explored further

Alluvial fan records from southeast Arabia reveal multiple windows for human dispersal

The dispersal of human populations out of Africa into Arabia was most likely linked to episodes of climatic amelioration, when increased monsoon rainfall led to the activation of drainage systems, improved freshwater availability, and the development of regional vegetation. Here we present the first dated terrestrial record from southeast Arabia that provides evidence for increased rainfall and the expansion of vegetation during both glacial and interglacial periods. Findings from extensive alluvial fan deposits indicate that drainage system activation occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 (ca. 160–150 ka), MIS 5 (ca. 130–75 ka), and during early MIS 3 (ca. 55 ka). The development of active freshwater systems during these periods corresponds with monsoon intensity increases during insolation maxima, suggesting that humid periods in Arabia were not confined to eccentricity-paced deglaciations, and providing paleoenvironmental support for multiple windows of opportunity for dispersal out of Africa during the late Pleistocene

An early MIS 3 pluvial phase in Southeast Arabia: climatic and archaeological implications

Climatic changes in Arabia are of critical importance to our understanding of both monsoon variability and the dispersal of anatomically modern humans (AMH) out of Africa. The timing of dispersal is associated with the occurrence of pluvial periods during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 (ca. 130–74 ka), after which arid conditions between ca. 74 and 10.5 ka are thought to have restricted further migration and range expansion within the Arabian interior. Whilst a number of records indicate that this phase of aridity was punctuated by an increase in monsoon strength during MIS 3, uncertainties regarding the precision of terrestrial records and suitability of marine archives as records of precipitation, mean that the occurrence of this pluvial remains debated. Here we present evidence from a series of relict lake deposits within southeastern Arabia, which formed at the onset of MIS 3 (ca. 61–58 ka). At this time, the incursion of monsoon rainfall into the Arabian interior activated a network of channels associated with an alluvial fan system along the western flanks of the Hajar Mountains, leading to lake formation. Multiproxy evidence indicates that precipitation increases intermittently recharged fluvial systems within the region, leading to lake expansion in distal fan zones. Conversely, decreased precipitation led to reduced channel flow, lake contraction and a shift to saline conditions. These findings are in contrast to the many other palaeoclimatic records from Arabia, which suggest that during MIS 3, the latitudinal position of the monsoon was substantially further south and did not penetrate the peninsula. Additionally, the occurrence of increased rainfall at this time challenges the notion that the climate of Arabia following MIS 5 was too harsh to permit the further range expansion of indigenous communities

Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis in Cost-Effectiveness Models: Determining Model Convergence in Cohort Models.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) demonstrates the parameter uncertainty in a decision problem. The technique involves sampling parameters from their respective distributions (rather than simply using mean/median parameter values). Guidance in the literature, and from health technology assessment bodies, on the number of simulations that should be performed suggests a 'sufficient number', or until 'convergence', which is seldom defined. The objective of this tutorial is to describe possible outcomes from PSA, discuss appropriate levels of accuracy, and present guidance by which an analyst can determine if a sufficient number of simulations have been conducted, such that results are considered to have converged. The proposed approach considers the variance of the outcomes of interest in cost-effectiveness analysis as a function of the number of simulations. A worked example of the technique is presented using results from a published model, with recommendations made on best practice. While the technique presented remains essentially arbitrary, it does give a mechanism for assessing the level of simulation error, and thus represents an advance over current practice of a round number of simulations with no assessment of model convergence

Climate change adaptation through planted forages in Southern Highlands, Tanzania

Smallholder farmers (SF) are the biggest food producers in Tanzania (TZ), where hetero- geneous mixed crop-livestock farming systems dominate agriculture (Fig 1). Feed scarcity and quality are major issues facing smallholder dairy farmers in Tanzania. Climate projections for Tanzania indicate increased length of dry seasons and severity of periodic droughts. These expected impacts will affect farm productivity, leaving farmers more vulnerable. The planting of improved grass and legume forages, if properly managed, has the potential to improve livestock productivity and resilience which can help SF adapt to climate chang

Ethical dilemmas and validity issues related to the use of new cooling technologies and early recognition of exertional heat illness in sport

The Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games is expected to be among the hottest Games in modern history, increasing the chances for exertional heat stroke (EHS) incidence, especially in non-acclimatised athletes/workers/spectators. The urgent need to recognise EHS symptoms to protect all attendees'' health has considerably accelerated research examining the most effective cooling strategies and the development of wearable cooling technology and real-time temperature monitoring. While these technological advances will aid the early identification of EHS cases, there are several potential ethical considerations for governing bodies and sports organisers. For example, the impact of recently developed cooling wearables on health and performance is unknown. Concerning improving athletic performance in a hot environment, there is uncertainty about this technology''s availability to all athletes. Furthermore, the real potential to obtain real-time core temperature data will oblige medical teams to make crucial decisions around their athletes continuing their competitions or withdraw. Therefore, the aim of this review is (1) to summarise the practical applications of the most novel cooling strategies/technologies for both safety (of athletes, spectators and workers) and performance purposes, and (2) to inform of the opportunities offered by recent technological developments for the early recognition and diagnosis of EHS. These opportunities are presented alongside several ethical dilemmas that require sports governing bodies to react by regulating the validity of recent technologies and their availability to all

StraboSpot data system for structural geology

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.StraboSpot is a geologic data system that allows researchers to digitally collect, store, and share both field and laboratory data. StraboSpot is based on how geologists actually work to collect field data; although initially developed for the structural geology research community, the approach is easily extensible to other disciplines. The data system uses two main concepts to organize data: spots and tags. A spot is any observation that characterizes a specific area, a concept applicable at any spatial scale from regional to microscopic. Spots are related in a purely spatial manner, and consequently, one spot can enclose multiple other spots that themselves contain other spots. In contrast, tags provide conceptual grouping of spots, allowing linkages between spots that are independent of their spatial position. The StraboSpot data system uses a graph database, rather than a relational database approach, to increase flexibility and to track geologically complex relationships. StraboSpot operates on two different platform types: (1) a fieldbased application that runs on iOS and Android mobile devices, which can function in either Internet-connected or disconnected environments; and (2) a web application that runs only in Internet-connected settings. We are presently engaged in incorporating microstructural data into StraboSpot, as well as expanding to include additional field-based (sedimentology, petrology) and lab-based (experimental rock deformation) data. The StraboSpot database will be linked to other existing and future databases in order to provide integration with other digital efforts in the geological sciences and allow researchers to do types of science that were not possible without easy access to digital data

The Community Ecology of Herbivore Regulation in an Agroecosystem: Lessons from Complex Systems

AbstractWhether an ecological community is controlled from above or below remains a popular framework that continues generating interesting research questions and takes on especially important meaning in agroecosystems. We describe the regulation from above of three coffee herbivores, a leaf herbivore (the green coffee scale, Coccus viridis), a seed predator (the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei), and a plant pathogen (the coffee rust disease, caused by Hemelia vastatrix) by various natural enemies, emphasizing the remarkable complexity involved. We emphasize the intersection of this classical question of ecology with the burgeoning field of complex systems, including references to chaos, critical transitions, hysteresis, basin or boundary collision, and spatial self-organization, all aimed at the applied question of pest control in the coffee agroecosystem