An American Model for the EU Gas Market?

It is generally believed that the American model is not suitable for Europe, yet North America is the only large and working competitive gas market in the world. The paper shows how its model could be adapted as a target for market design within the European institutional framework. It starts from analysis of the main peculiar economic features of the gas transportation industry, which should underpin any efficient model. After the Third Package is properly implemented the EU will share several building blocks of the American model: effective unbundling of transportation and supply; regulated tariffs which, for long distance transportation, are in fact largely related to capacity and distance; investments based mostly on industry’s initiative and resources, and the related decisions are increasingly made after open and public processes. Yet Europe needs to harmonize tariff regulation criteria, which could be achieved through a monitoring process. National separation of main investment decisions should be overcome, possibly by organising a common platform where market forces and public authorities interact with private suppliers to require existing and develop new capacity, whereas industry competitively offers its solutions. Such platform would allow for long term capacity reservation, subject to caps and congestion management provisions. Auctions and possibly market coupling would play an important role in the allocation of short term capacity but a limited one in long term. Market architecture and the organisation of hubs would also be developed mostly by market forces under regulatory oversight. The continental nature of the market suggests a likely concentration of trading in a very limited number of main markets, whereas minor markets would have a limited role and would be connected to major ones, with price differences reflecting transportation costs and market conditions. Excessive interference or pursuit of political goals in less than transparent ways involves the risk of slower liquidity development and higher market fragmentation. With this view as a background, regulatory work aimed at completing the European market should be based on ensuring the viability of interconnections between current markets and on the establishment of common platforms and co-ordinated tariff systems, fostering the conditions for upstream and transportation capacity development.Hubs; infrastructure; target model; network tariffs; gas market design; capacity allocation

Spanish Football

The authors analyze the financial situation of the Spanish football industry. They first argue that a relevant analysis of the industry's financial results relies on a careful description of how historical and cultural factors have influenced its organization. Moreover, they stress the important relationship between the industry and television. The authors suggest that the situation of the Spanish football industry suffers from some structural weaknesses in its accounts. However, the situation seems less severe than in other major European football leagues, partly because local authorities in Spain have strong incentives to back football teams.Publicad

Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy

Even low levels of trend inflation substantially affect the dynamics of a basic new Keynesian DSGE model when monetary policy is conducted by a contemporaneous Taylor rule. Positive trend inflation shrinks the determinacy region. Neither the Taylor principle, which requires the inflation coefficient to be greater than one, nor the generalized Taylor principle, which requires that in the long run the nominal interest rate should be raised by more than the increase in inflation, is a sufficient condition for local determinacy of equilibrium. This finding holds for different types of Taylor rules, inertial policy rules and price indexation schemes. Therefore, re- gardless of the theoretical set up, the monetary literature on Taylor rules cannot disregard average inflation in both theoretical and empirical analysis.Sticky Prices, Taylor Rules and Trend Inflation

Optimal monetary policy under low trend inflation

In the monetary policy literature it is commonly assumed that trend inflation is zero, despite overwhelming evidence that zero inflation is neither empirically relevant nor a practical objective for central bank policy. We therefore extend the standard New Keynesian model to allow for positive trend inflation, showing that even low trend inflation has strong effects on optimal monetary policy and the dynamics of inflation, output, and interest rates. Under discretion, the efficient policy deteriorates and there is no guarantee of determinacy. Even with commitment, targeting non-zero trend inflation leads to substantial welfare losses. Our results serve as a warning against indiscriminate use of models assuming zero trend inflation.Optimal monetary policy, trend inflation

Staggered Wages and Output Dynamics under Disinflation.

We study the output costs of a reduction in monetary growth in a dynamic general equilibrium model with staggered wages. The money wage is fixed for two periods, and is chosen according to intertemporal optimization. Agents have labour market monopoly power. We show that the introduction of microfoundations helps to resolve the puzzle raised by directly postulated models, namely that disinflation in staggered pricing models causes a boom. In our model disinflation, whether unanticipated or anticipated, unambiguously causes a slump.WAGES ; INFLATION ; MONEY

The long-run optimal degree of indexation in new Keynesian models with price staggering à la Calvo

This note shows that full price indexation is not optimal in the long-run, in the New Keynesian model under trend inflation and price staggering à la Calvo. Moreover, we show that more price stickiness may increase steady state welfare, if price indexation is partial.Indexation, Trend Inflation, New Keynesian model

Long-run Phillips Curve and Disinfation Dynamics: Calvo vs. Rotemberg Price Setting

There is widespread agreement that the two most widely used pricing assumptions in the New-Keynesian literature, i.e., Calvo and Rotemberg price-setting mechanisms, deliver equivalent dynamics. We show that, instead, they entail a very di¤erent dynamics of adjustment after a disin?ation, once non linear simulations are employed. In the Calvo model disin?ation implies output gains, while in the Rotemberg model a disin?ation experiment implies output losses. We show that this is due to the di¤erent wedges created by the nominal rigidities in the two models: between output and hours in the Calvo model, while between output and consumption in the Rotemberg model. More- over, unlike the Calvo model, in the Rotemberg model real wage rigidi- ties cause a signi?cant output slump along the adjustment path, thus restoring a dynamics in line both with the conventional wisdom and the empirical evidence.Disinfation, Sticky Prices, Nonlinearities

The Effectiveness of Government Debt for Demand Management: Sensitivity to Monetary Policy Rules

We construct a staggered-price dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations based on uncertain lifetimes. Price stickiness plus lack of Ricardian Equivalence could be expected to make an increase in government debt, with associated changes in lumpsum taxation, effective in raising short-run output. However we find this is very sensitive to the monetary policy rule. A permanent increase in debt under a basic Taylor Rule does not raise output. To make debt effective we need either a temporary nominal interest rate peg; or inertia in the rule; or an exogenous money supply policy; or to make the debt increase temporary.staggered prices, overlapping generations, government debt, fiscal policy effectiveness, monetary policy rules

Trend Inflation and Firms Price-Setting: Rotemberg vs. Calvo

We compare two widely used pricing assumptions in the New-Keynesian literature: the Calvo and Rotemberg price-setting mechanisms. We show that, once trend in?ation is taken into account, the two models are very different. i) The long-run relationship between inflation and output is positive in the Rotemberg model and negative in the Calvo model. ii) The log-linearized NKPCs are very different and the dynamics of the two models differs even to a first order approximation. iii) Positive trend inflation enlarges the determinacy region in the Rotemberg model, while it shrinks the determinacy region in the Calvo model. iv) The responses of output and inflation to a positive technology shock are amplified by trend inflation in Calvo, while they are damped in Rotemberg. v) The two models imply a different non-linear adjustment after a disinflation.Firms Pricing, Trend Inflation, Determinacy, Disinflation.

Inflation persistence, Price Indexation and Optimal Simple Interest Rate Rules

We study the properties of the optimal nominal interest rate policy under different levels of price indexation. In our model indexation regulates the sources of inflation persistence. When indexation is zero, the inflation gap is purely forward- looking and inflation persistence depends only on the level of trend inflation, while full indexation makes the inflation gap persistent and it eliminates the effects of trend inflation. We show that in the former case the optimal policy is inertial and targets inflation stability while in the latter the optimal policy has no inertia and targets the real interest rate. We compare our results with empirical estimates of the FED's policy in the post-WWII era.Inflation Persistence, Taylor Rule, New Keynesian model, Indexation