Multiple hazards risk profiling in West Africa : Assessment, Validation and Upscaling

Disasters, particularly recurring small-scale natural disasters of floods and droughts have been affecting West African (WA) communities, impacting particularly weak households. These losses have been significantly high over the last decade due to increasing climate variability and inherently depressed socio-economic systems. However, to date, few studies have attempted to understand the vulnerability profiles in WA to these multiple hazards across several scales. A considerable number of studies predict the impacts of droughts and floods hazards, but many do so at a very coarse scale and without any participatory process, as a result, they are unable to predict localized impacts. Despite many efforts put in vulnerability assessments, there has been limited success in simultaneously traversing scale and hierarchy and the need for upscaling risk indices is important to understand the effects of cross scale interactions. To address these gaps, this thesis (i) explored methods to involve at-risk populations in local communities in a bottom-up participatory process as opposed to the classical top-down, single scale approaches and (ii) assessed the risks from multi-hazard perspectives in a coupled Socio-Ecological System (SES). The thesis also (iii) explored appropriate methodologies that can reflect the spatial variability of flood hazard intensity at community level. Building on these investigations, the thesis finally (iv) introduced a novel risk index upscaling procedure to upscale risk and vulnerability indices across multiple scales. The thesis used several methods ranging from rural participatory methods, statistical, Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing and introduced the innovative concept of Community Impact Score (CIS). The results show that more than half of the designated local level indicators and over two thirds of the macro scale indicators are rarely used in present risk assessments in the region. Additionally, although an indicator may be common to three countries, their differential rankings will result in differences in explaining the risks faced by people in different societies. Empirical validation of a flood hazard map using the statistical confusion matrix and the principles of participatory GIS show that flood hazard areas could be mapped at an accuracy ranging from 77% to 81%. These high mapping accuracies notwithstanding, the flood index categories may change under conditions of very high rainfall intensities beyond the anomalies used to construct the model. To this end, studies that aim at understanding projected flood intensities under varying rainfall conditions beyond the anomalies used in this study are recommended. This is important to determine the trajectory of flood safe havens or hotspots across an entire study area. The study also develops two important indices, The West Sudanian Community Vulnerability Index (WESCVI) and The West Sudanian Community Risk Index (WESCRI). The underlying factors constituting the two indices are the elements of risk and vulnerability profiles of communities in West Africa. The WESCVI and WESCRI should help planners and policy makers to analyse and finally reduce vulnerability and risk. To evaluate the results of the risk indices, this thesis introduces a novel technique to validate the results of complex aggregation methods. Based on up to date knowledge, the CIS concept is the first in the available literature of risk assessment. The thesis also provides a theoretical concept to upscale risk and vulnerability indicators from watershed to higher spatial scales. Further studies are however recommended to apply these theoretical concepts. A conclusion of the thesis is that while it has neither been optimal to completely neglect classical approaches nor to take as an absolute fact opinion from local experts, more emphasis should be paid to the later in risk assessment that is supposed to serve the very people on whose behalf the assessment is done. Attempts should therefore be made in finding mechanisms where the two approaches could interact fruitfully and complement each other.Mehrfach-Gefährdungen und Risikoprofile in West Afrika : Abschätzung, Validierung und Hochskalierung Naturgefahren, wie beispielsweise Überflutungen und Dürren, bedrohen die Existenz von Gemeinden und insbesondere schwächeren Haushalten in West Afrika. Durch die zunehmende Klimavariabilität und den geschwächten Zustand der sozial-ökologischen Systeme haben die Verluste während der letzten Dekade ein besonders hohes Ausmaß erreicht. Bisher haben nur wenige Studien versucht, die unterschiedliche Zusammensetzung des Risikos im Hinblick auf mehrere Naturgefahren in Westafrika zu verstehen und über verschiedene Skalen hinweg, von ländlichen Gemeinden hin zu Wassereinzugsgebieten, Distrikten und Regionen zu analysieren. Eine signifikante Anzahl von Studien prognostiziert die zu erwarteten Schäden durch Naturgefahren wie Überflutungen und Dürren. Dies geschieht jedoch oftmals auf einem sehr groben Maßstab, wohingegen wenig über die lokalen Auswirkungen bekannt ist. Trotz mannigfaltiger Anstrengungen in Bezug auf Vulnerabilitätsassessments gab es bisher wenig Erfolg bei der Berücksichtigung verschiedener Skalen und Hierarchien. Die Hochskalierung von Risikoindizes ist jedoch nötig, um die Effekte über verschiedene Skalen hinweg zu verstehen. Diese Forschungslücken werden in dieser Arbeit aufgegriffen und mit methodischen Verfahren über einen „Bottom-up“-Ansatz adressiert, der zunächst die gefährdete Bevölkerung involviert, um die Risiken gegenüber von mehrfachen Gefährdungen in einem sozio-ökologischen System (SES) zu untersuchen. Außerdem verwendet die Studie Methoden, die es ermöglichen, die räumliche Variabilität der Überflutungsintensität auf Gemeindeebene zu reflektieren. Aufbauend auf diesen Forschungsergebnissen stellt diese Arbeit eine neue Vorgehensweise vor, die es erlaubt Verwundbarkeits- und Risikoindizes über verschiedene Skalen hinweg hochzuskalieren. Der Methodenmix umfasst partizipative und statistische Ansätze sowie Methoden basierend auf Geographische Informationssystemen (GIS) und Fernerkundung. Des Weiteren schlägt die Arbeit ein innovatives Konzept zur Quantifizierung der Gefährdungsauswirkungen auf Gemeindeebene vor, den sogenannten „Community Impact Score“ (CIS). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass etwas mehr als die Hälfte der in dieser Arbeit abgeleiteten Indikatoren auf Gemeindeebene und über zwei Drittel der Indikatoren auf Makroebene selten in den gegenwärtigen Risikoassessments der Region verwendet werden. Zudem wurde den Indikatoren, selbst wenn sie für alle drei Länder abgeleitet wurden, oftmals eine unterschiedliche Wichtigkeit zugesprochen. Die empirische Validierung der Hochwassergefährdungskarten mittels einer statistischen Konfusionsmatrix basierend auf einem partizipativen GIS zeigt, dass die durch Hochwasser gefährdeten Gebiete mit einer Genauigkeit von 77-81% kartiert werden konnten. Trotz dieser hohen Genauigkeit ist es jedoch möglich, dass sich die Hochwassergefährdungskategorien bei Anomalitäten, die über die modellierten Bedingungen hinausreichen, verändern. Dementsprechend werden weiterführende Studien, die eben diese Bedingungen untersuchen empfohlen. Dies ist zur Bestimmung von sicheren Zufluchtsorten oder Hotspots von großer Bedeutung. In dieser Studie wurden außerdem zwei verschiedene Indizes entwickelt, der sogenannte „West Sudanian Community Vulnerability Index“ (WESCVI) und der „West Sudanian Community Risk Index“ (WESCRI). Die den Indizes zugrunde liegenden Faktoren bilden außerdem die Bestandteile der Risiko- und Vulnerabilitätsprofile für die Gemeinden Westafrikas. Sowohl der WESCVI als auch der WESCRI sollen Planern und politischen Entscheidungsträgern dabei helfen, die Vulnerabilität und das Risiko zu analysieren und zu reduzieren. Um die Ergebnisse der Risikoindizes zu evaluieren stellt diese Arbeit ein innovatives Konzept zur Validierung solch komplexer Aggregationsmethoden vor. Nach aktuellem Kenntnisstand ist das CIS Konzept das erste seiner Art in der erhältlichen Literatur zu Risikoassessments. Des Weiteren wurde ein theoretisches Konzept zur Hochskalierung von Risiko- und Vulnerabilitätsindizes von Wassereinzugsgebieten hin zu höheren Ebenen erarbeitet.Dieses theoretische Konzept bietet eine Basis für weiterführende Untersuchungen im Hinblick auf die Anwendung und Umsetzung. Insgesamt unterstreicht diese Studie, dass weder die klassischen Ansätze allein noch das Gleichsetzen von lokalem Expertenwissen mit der absoluten Wahrheit als optimal erachtet werden können. Die Studie zeigt, dass man dem lokalen Expertenwissen in Risikoassessments mehr Gewicht beimessen sollte. Dementsprechend sollten Ansätze gefunden werden, bei denen sich beide Herangehensweisen erfolgreich ergänzen

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented

Bundled CSA/CIS for AICCRA Ghana Project (Platform creation)

Esoko engaged ten (10) agents to profile farmers in AiCCRA operational areas. Based on the profiling, Esoko was able to create a network of 256,981, exceeding the target by 6,981 (2.79%). These farmers were provided with CIS/CSA technologie

Equity Crowdfunding as an Alternative Source of Financing Entrepreneurship in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana

Entrepreneurship is globally seen as a tool for job creation and contributing to the stability of the economies of nations. This is why the governments of many nations including Ghana put up initiatives to promote entrepreneurial activities. This work sought to assess equity crowdfunding as an alternative source of generating fund for entrepreneurial projects in Ghana. A combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches were used in conducting this study in the Tema Municipality of the Greater Accra Region due to the intense commercial activity in that area. Out of a population of 10,000  entrepreneurs and investors, a sample size of 149 entrepreneurs in various industries and 118 investors as well as 90 respondents acting as both entrepreneurs and investors were chosen through purposive sampling method. Data was collected through the use of questionnaires and was analysed by way of descriptive stattistics using tables and graphs. The results of the study showed that most entrepreneurs and investors had heard of equity crowdfunding but very few understood the operations of this type of funding. Also, most respondents saw one of the challenges in the adoption of crowdfunding in Ghana to be inadequate understanding of it among entrepreneurs and investors.  It is evident from the study that the level of awareness of equity crowdfunding in the entrepreneurship community in Ghana is low. The study showed that equity crowdfunding is capable of bridging the funding gap and therefore a suitable alternative in generating funds for entrepreneurship in Ghana. It is recommended that equity crowdfunding be included as a source of funding in entrepreneurship curriculum. Also, policies should be made by government to establish regulations that will protect all the parties involved in equity crowdfunding

Equity Crowdfunding: An Alternative Source of Financing Entrepreneurship in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana

Entrepreneurship is globally seen as a tool for job creation, contributing to the stability and economic development of nations. This is why the governments of many nations, including Ghana, put up initiatives to promote entrepreneurial activities. This paper focuses on assessing equity crowdfunding as an alternative source of generating fund for entrepreneurial projects in Ghana. A combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches were used in conducting this study in the Tema Municipality of the Greater Accra Region. A sample size of 149 entrepreneurs in various industries, 118 investors, and 90 respondents acting as both entrepreneurs and investors were chosen through purposive sampling method. Data were collected through the use of questionnaires and analyzed using descriptive statistics, employing tables and graphs. The results of the study showed that most entrepreneurs and investors had heard of equity crowdfunding but very few understood the operations of this type of funding. Also, it became evident that the investors and entrepreneurs had inadequate knowledge and understanding about crowdfunding adoption in Ghana. The study showed that equity crowdfunding is capable of bridging the funding gap and, therefore, is a suitable alternative in generating funds for entrepreneurship in Ghana. It is recommended that equity crowdfunding should be included as a source of funding in entrepreneurship curriculum. Also, policies should be made by government to establish regulations that will protect all the parties involved in equity crowdfunding

Creation of Network on the Esoko platform to monitor beneficiaries and information dissemination

Esoko was able to create a network of 256,981 and provided them with Climate Information Services and Climate Smart Agriculture (CIS-CSA)

Climate-Smart Agriculture and Climate Information Services Action for Food Systems Transformation in Ghana: Capacity strengthening and Stakeholder consultation

AICCRA Ghana Cluster in collaboration with WA Regional Cluster and national, regional and international partners convened a two-week capacity strengthening event. The format of the event was hybrid with important in-person attendance arranged. The training aligns with the clusters expected contributions to specific project targets against four AICCRA performance indicators: PDO1- CCAFS partners and stakeholders in the Project area are increasingly accessing enhanced climate information services and/or validated climate-smart agriculture technologies; IPI 2.2- Partnerships launched/ strengthened between AICCRA-funded CGIAR and NARS scientists, universities, public sector stakeholders, farmer organizations, NGOs and private sector; IPI 2.3- People engaged in AICCRA-funded capacity development activities; and IPI 3.1- Validated climate information services and climate-smart agriculture technologies disseminated / made accessible. Therefore, the training was structured around four main segments: 1) Climate-smart one-health approach and partnership launch; 2) Early Warning & Rapid Response (EWRR) for a climate-smart IPM; 3) NFCS partnership strengthening and stakeholder consultation; 4) Enhancing access to CSA/CIS bundles while addressing gender and social inclusion (GSI)

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Multi-scale participatory indicator development approaches for climate change risk assessment in West Africa

A multi-scale participatory process was used to extend the classical approach of indicator development for risk assessment in West Africa. The approach followed a step-wise procedure to develop Indicator Reference Sheet based on conceptual risk assessment framework and combined with knowledge of local experts iteratively selected through snowball approach. Existing risk assessment frameworks being modified to account for multiple hazards were merged into a coherent framework to categorize the components of risks. Local experts including at risk populations were constituted into technical working groups to elicit important processes shaping risks at multiple spatial scales. The results showed that more than half of the designated local level indicators and over two-third of macro scale indicators are rarely used in present risk assessments in the region. Additionally, although an indicator may be common to three countries, their differential rankings will result in differences in explaining the risks faced by people in different societies. However, there were indicators that were unique to each country and this has wider implications for risk assessment that uses common indicators for different countries for comparative purposes. An important output of the study is the identification of locally and nationally evaluated indicator sets for assessing the risk to natural hazards. While it has neither been optimal to completely neglect classical approaches nor to take as an absolute fact opinions from local experts, more emphasis should be paid to the latter in risk assessment that is supposed to serve the very people on whose behalf the assessment is done

Towards the Development of an Adapted Multi-hazard Risk Assessment Framework for the West Sudanian Savanna Zone

West Africa is a region considered highly vulnerable to climate change and associated with natural hazards due to interactions of climate change and non - climatic stressors exacerbating the vulnerability of the region, particularly its agricultural system ( IPCC, 2014b). Taking the Western Sudanian Savanna as our geographic target area, this paper seeks to develop an integrated risk assessment framework that incorporates resilience as well as multiple hazards concepts, and is applicable to the specific condit ions of the target area. To provide the scientific basis for the framework, the paper will first defi ne the following key terms of risk assessments in a climate change adaptation context: risk, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, resilience, coping and adapt ation. Next, it will discuss the ways in which they are conceptualized and employed in risk, resilience and vulnerability frameworks. When reviewing the literature on existing indicator - based risk assessment for West African Sudanian Savanna zones, it bec omes apparent that there is a lack of a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment capturing multiple natural hazards. The paper suggests an approach for l inking resilience and vulnerability in a common framework for risk assessment. It accounts for soci etal response mechanism through coping, adaptation, disaster risk management and development activities which may foster transformation or persistence of the social ecological systems. Building on the progress made in multi - hazard assessments, the framewor k is suitable for analyzing multiple - hazard risks and existing interactions at hazard and vulnerability levels. While the framework is well grounded in theories and existing literature, and advances the knowledge by including and linking additional element s, it still remains to be tested empiricall