Deterministic Seasonality in Dickey-Fuller Tests: Should We Care?

This paper investigates the properties of Dickey-Fuller tests for seasonally unadjusted quarterly data when deterministic seasonality is present but it is neglected in the test regression. While for the random walk case the answer is straightforward, an extensive Monte Carlo study has to be performed for more realistic processes and testing strategies. The most important conclusion is that the common perception that deterministic seasonality has nothing to do with the long-run properties of the data is incorrect. Further numerical evidence on the shortcomings of the general-to-specific t-sig lag selection method is also presented.unit root; Dickey-Fuller tests; similar tests; seasonality; Monte Carlo

The Order of Integration for Quarterly Macroeconomic Time series: a Simple Testing Strategy

Besides introducing a simple and intuitive definition for the order of integration of quarterly time series, this paper also presents a simple testing strategy to determine that order for the case of macroeconomic data. A simulation study shows that much more attention should be devoted to the practical issue of selecting the maximum admissible order of integration. In fact, it is shown that when that order is too high, one may get (spurious) evidence for an excessive number of unit roots, resulting in an overdifferenced series.

Time varying fiscal policy in the U.S.

To investigate the time heterogeneity effects of fiscal policy in the U.S., we use a non-recursive, Blanchard and Perotti-like structural VAR with time-varying parameters, estimated through Bayesian simulation over the 1965:2-2009:2 period. Our evidence suggests that fiscal policy has lost some capacity to stimulate output but that this trend is more pronounced for taxes net of transfers than for government expenditure, whose effectiveness declines only slightly. Fiscal multipliers keep conventional signs throughout. An investigation of changes in fiscal policy conduct indicates an increase in the countercyclical activism of net taxes over time, which appears to have reached a maximum during the 2008-09 recession.Fiscal policy, Bayesian estimation, Structural change, Macroeconomic stabilization

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: some empirical evidence for Portugal

The purpose of this paper is to test the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results obtained support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the hypothesis, and broadly agree with previous evidence for other countries. The empirical evidence supports the cointegration of Portuguese rates and the "puzzle" well known in the literature: although its forecasts of future short-term rates are in the correct direction, the spread between longer and shorter rates fails to forecast future longer rates. In the single equation framework, the implications of the hypothesis in terms of the predictive ability of the spread are also clearly rejected

The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Some Empirical Evidence for Portugal

The purpose of this paper is to test the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results obtained support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the hypothesis, and broadly agree with previous evidence for other countries. The empirical evidence supports the cointegration of Portuguese rates and the "puzzle" well known in the literature: although its forecasts of future short-term rates are in the correct direction, the spread between longer and shorter rates fails to forecast future longer rates. In the single equation framework, the implications of the hypothesis in terms of the predictive ability of the spread are also clearly rejected, even for the more stable period which emerged in the middle nineties.term structure of interest rates; expectations hypothesis; hypothesis testing; cointegration; Portugal

Chapter 3 - Single Equation Dynamic Linear Models : an Introduction

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Chapter 2 - Misspecification Analysis I : Coefficients’ (In)Stability

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Chapter 2 - Misspecification Analysis II : Serial Correlation

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: some empirical evidence for Portugal

The purpose of this paper is to test the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results obtained support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the hypothesis, and broadly agree with previous evidence for other countries. The empirical evidence supports the cointegration of Portuguese rates and the "puzzle" well known in the literature: although its forecasts of future short-term rates are in the correct direction, the spread between longer and shorter rates fails to forecast future longer rates. In the single equation framework, the implications of the hypothesis in terms of the predictive ability of the spread are also clearly rejected.term structure of interest rates; expectations hypothesis; hypothesis testing; cointegration; Portugal

On the 'restricted cointegration test' as a test of the rational expectations hypothesis

One of the main consequences of the `cointegration revolution’ on the domain of the direct tests of the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) was the substitution of the `restricted cointegration test’ (RCT) for the `unbiasedness test’. However, the results of a Monte Carlo study show that a simple t-test can be much more powerful than the RCT. It is argued that the RCT is adequate to investigate the `asymptotic rationality’ but that it is not sufficient to assess the Muthian rationality of expectations. The discussion is empirically illustrated with the test of the REH for the Portuguese retail trade inflation expectations.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio