A predictive model and risk factors for case fatality of covid-19

This study aimed to create an individualized analysis model of the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients as a tool for the rapid clinical management of hospitalized patients in order to achieve a resilience of medical resources. This is an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Data were collected from the medical records of 3489 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT-qPCR in the period of highest community transmission recorded in Europe to date: February–June 2020. The study was carried out in in two health areas of hospital care in the Madrid region: the central area of the Madrid capital (Hospitales de Madrid del Grupo HM Hospitales (CH-HM), n = 1931) and the metropolitan area of Madrid (Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias (MH-HUPA) n = 1558). By using a regression model, we observed how the different patient variables had unequal importance. Among all the analyzed variables, basal oxygen saturation was found to have the highest relative importance with a value of 20.3%, followed by age (17.7%), lymphocyte/leukocyte ratio (14.4%), CRP value (12.5%), comorbidities (12.5%), and leukocyte count (8.9%). Three levels of risk of ICU/death were established: low-risk level (20%). At the high-risk level, 13% needed ICU admission, 29% died, and 37% had an ICU–death outcome. This predictive model allowed us to individualize the risk for worse outcome for hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19

Role of Innate and Adaptive Cytokines in the Survival of COVID-19 Patients

SARS-CoV-2 is a new coronavirus characterized by a high infection and transmission capacity. A significant number of patients develop inadequate immune responses that produce massive releases of cytokines that compromise their survival. Soluble factors are clinically and pathologically relevant in COVID-19 survival but remain only partially characterized. The objective of this work was to simultaneously study 62 circulating soluble factors, including innate and adaptive cytokines and their soluble receptors, chemokines and growth and wound-healing/repair factors, in severe COVID-19 patients who survived compared to those with fatal outcomes. Serum samples were obtained from 286 COVID-19 patients and 40 healthy controls. The 62 circulating soluble factors were quantified using a Luminex Milliplex assay. Results. The patients who survived had decreased levels of the following 30 soluble factors of the 62 studied compared to those with fatal outcomes, therefore, these decreases were observed for cytokines and receptors predominantly produced by the innate immune system—IL-1α, IL-1α, IL-18, IL-15, IL-12p40, IL-6, IL-27, IL-1Ra, IL-1RI, IL-1RII, TNFα, TGFα, IL-10, sRAGE, sTNF-RI and sTNF-RII—for the chemokines IL-8, IP-10, MCP-1, MCP-3, MIG and fractalkine; for the growth factors M-CSF and the soluble receptor sIL2Ra; for the cytokines involved in the adaptive immune system IFNγ, IL-17 and sIL-4R; and for the wound-repair factor FGF2. On the other hand, the patients who survived had elevated levels of the soluble factors TNFβ, sCD40L, MDC, RANTES, G-CSF, GM-CSF, EGF, PDGFAA and PDGFABBB compared to those who died. Conclusions. Increases in the circulating levels of the sCD40L cytokine; MDC and RANTES chemokines; the G-CSF and GM-CSF growth factors, EGF, PDGFAA and PDGFABBB; and tissue-repair factors are strongly associated with survival. By contrast, large increases in IL-15, IL-6, IL-18, IL-27 and IL-10; the sIL-1RI, sIL1RII and sTNF-RII receptors; the MCP3, IL-8, MIG and IP-10 chemokines; the M-CSF and sIL-2Ra growth factors; and the wound-healing factor FGF2 favor fatal outcomes of the diseaseThis research was coordinated by ProA Capital and Startlite Foundation, Programa de Actividades de I+D de la Comunidad de Madrid en Biomedicina (B2020/MITICAD-CM), Halekulani S.L., MJR; and Universidad de Alcala COVID-19 UAH 2019/00003/016/001/026 and COVID-19 2021-2020/00003/016/001/027Peer reviewe

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Largest HIV-1 CRF02_AG Outbreak in Spain: Evidence for Onward Transmissions

Background and Aim: The circulating recombinant form 02_AG (CRF02_AG) is the predominant clade among the human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) non-Bs with a prevalence of 5.97% (95% Confidence Interval-CI: 5.41–6.57%) across Spain. Our aim was to estimate the levels of regional clustering for CRF02_AG and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the largest CRF02_AG subepidemic in Spain.Methods: We studied 396 CRF02_AG sequences obtained from HIV-1 diagnosed patients during 2000–2014 from 10 autonomous communities of Spain. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on the 391 CRF02_AG sequences along with all globally sampled CRF02_AG sequences (N = 3,302) as references. Phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis was performed to the largest CRF02_AG monophyletic cluster by a Bayesian method in BEAST v1.8.0 and by reconstructing ancestral states using the criterion of parsimony in Mesquite v3.4, respectively.Results: The HIV-1 CRF02_AG prevalence differed across Spanish autonomous communities we sampled from (p < 0.001). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 52.7% of the CRF02_AG sequences formed 56 monophyletic clusters, with a range of 2–79 sequences. The CRF02_AG regional dispersal differed across Spain (p = 0.003), as suggested by monophyletic clustering. For the largest monophyletic cluster (subepidemic) (N = 79), 49.4% of the clustered sequences originated from Madrid, while most sequences (51.9%) had been obtained from men having sex with men (MSM). Molecular clock analysis suggested that the origin (tMRCA) of the CRF02_AG subepidemic was in 2002 (median estimate; 95% Highest Posterior Density-HPD interval: 1999–2004). Additionally, we found significant clustering within the CRF02_AG subepidemic according to the ethnic origin.Conclusion: CRF02_AG has been introduced as a result of multiple introductions in Spain, following regional dispersal in several cases. We showed that CRF02_AG transmissions were mostly due to regional dispersal in Spain. The hot-spot for the largest CRF02_AG regional subepidemic in Spain was in Madrid associated with MSM transmission risk group. The existence of subepidemics suggest that several spillovers occurred from Madrid to other areas. CRF02_AG sequences from Hispanics were clustered in a separate subclade suggesting no linkage between the local and Hispanic subepidemics

Utilidad del trasplante de hepatocitos criopreservados en la insuficiencia hepática aguda grave experimental

Tesis doctoral inédita. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina. Fecha de lectura: 15-7-9

Tocilizumab efficacy in COVID-19 patients is associated with respiratory severity-based stages

Background Tocilizumab treatment is investigated, and effectiveness in ICU-admitted COVID-19 patients has been reported. Although controversy exists regarding the efficacy of tocilizumab treatment, it has been suggested that tocilizumab might show positive results depending on patient severity status. We examined an association between tocilizumab and distinct disease severity stages. Methods and Findings From March 3 to March 23 2020, 494 consecutively admitted COVID-19 patients received tocilizumab or standard treatment alone. Data were obtained retrospectively. Clinical respiratory severity (CRS) stages were defined by patient oxygenation status and were also associated to scores of WHO clinical progression scale. We categorized patients in three stages, mild/moderate CRS1 (FiSpO26). The primary outcome was the composite of death or ICU admission in patients of stages CRS1, CRS2, and CRS3, as well as in total patients. We also addressed mortality alone in total patients. Kaplan-Maier curves, Cox proportional regression and inverse probability weighting marginal structural models were used. We conducted the study from March 3 to April 7 2020 with broad-ranged severity patients; 167 tocilizumab-treated and 327 untreated. CRS1 patients showed no apparent benefit after treatment, while the risk of the primary outcome was greatly reduced in CRS2 treated participants ((HR=0.22; 95% CI (0.16-0.44)). Moreover, tocilizumab treatment was associated with significantly decreased CRS2 patient proportion that reached the outcome compared to non-treated controls (27.8.0% vs. 65.4%; p<0.001). Severe/critical CRS3 patients, also showed benefit after treatment (HR=0.38; 95% CI (0.16-90)), although not as robust as was that of CRS2 treated individuals. Tocilizumab was associated with reduced outcome risk in total patients (HR=0.42; 95% CI (0.26-0.66)) after CRS adjustment, but not if CRS classification was not accounted as confounding factor (HR=1.19; 95% CI (0.84-1.69)). The outcome of mortality alone upon tocilizumab treatment was significant (HR=0.58; 95% CI (0.35-0.96)) after accounting for CRS classification. Conclusions Tocilizumab treatment is associated with reduced COVID-19 escalation in CRS2 patients, suggesting efficacy in moderate/severe non-ICU-admitted patients. CRS classification could represent an essential confounding factor in evaluating tocilizumab in studies of broad-ranged severity patients.This work was partially supported by grants from the Fondo de Investigación de la Seguridad Social-Instituto de Salud Carlos III (PI18/01726), Spain. Programa de Actividades de I+D de la Comunidad de Madrid en Biomedicina (B2017/BMD-3804), Madrid, Spain. Instituto de Salud Carlos III CIBER Enfermedades hepaticas y Digestivas, Spain. Agencia Estatal de Investigacion. SAF2016-80803-R. Medicina individualizada traslacional, en inflamacion y cancer. Comunidad de Madrid. B2017/BMD-3804, Spain (to: MAM, CMA and DB). GR holds Juan de la Cierva grant (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion).N

How do women living with HIV experience menopause? Menopausal symptoms, anxiety and depression according to reproductive age in a multicenter cohort

CatedresBackground: To estimate the prevalence and severity of menopausal symptoms and anxiety/depression and to assess the differences according to menopausal status among women living with HIV aged 45-60 years from the cohort of Spanish HIV/AIDS Research Network (CoRIS). Methods: Women were interviewed by phone between September 2017 and December 2018 to determine whether they had experienced menopausal symptoms and anxiety/depression. The Menopause Rating Scale was used to evaluate the prevalence and severity of symptoms related to menopause in three subscales: somatic, psychologic and urogenital; and the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire was used for anxiety/depression. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) of association between menopausal status, and other potential risk factors, the presence and severity of somatic, psychological and urogenital symptoms and of anxiety/depression. Results: Of 251 women included, 137 (54.6%) were post-, 70 (27.9%) peri- and 44 (17.5%) pre-menopausal, respectively. Median age of onset menopause was 48 years (IQR 45-50). The proportions of pre-, peri- and post-menopausal women who had experienced any menopausal symptoms were 45.5%, 60.0% and 66.4%, respectively. Both peri- and post-menopause were associated with a higher likelihood of having somatic symptoms (aOR 3.01; 95% CI 1.38-6.55 and 2.63; 1.44-4.81, respectively), while post-menopause increased the likelihood of having psychological (2.16; 1.13-4.14) and urogenital symptoms (2.54; 1.42-4.85). By other hand, post-menopausal women had a statistically significant five-fold increase in the likelihood of presenting severe urogenital symptoms than pre-menopausal women (4.90; 1.74-13.84). No significant differences by menopausal status were found for anxiety/depression. Joint/muscle problems, exhaustion and sleeping disorders were the most commonly reported symptoms among all women. Differences in the prevalences of vaginal dryness (p = 0.002), joint/muscle complaints (p = 0.032), and sweating/flush (p = 0.032) were found among the three groups. Conclusions: Women living with HIV experienced a wide variety of menopausal symptoms, some of them initiated before women had any menstrual irregularity. We found a higher likelihood of somatic symptoms in peri- and post-menopausal women, while a higher likelihood of psychological and urogenital symptoms was found in post-menopausal women. Most somatic symptoms were of low or moderate severity, probably due to the good clinical and immunological situation of these women