So Familiar, Yet So Strange: Mythic Shadows of the Medieval \u3ci\u3eGawain\u3c/i\u3e Romance in Iris Murdoch\u27s \u3ci\u3eGreen Knight\u3c/i\u3e

Discusses Murdoch’s The Green Knight, which uses themes and plot elements from Gawain, but interpreted in her own fashion

Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase

The assessment of the impacts of climate change at different levels of global warming helps inform national and international policy discussion around mitigation targets. This paper provides consistent estimates of global and regional impacts and risks at increases in global mean temperature up to 5 °C above pre-industrial levels, for over 30 indicators representing temperature extremes and heatwaves, hydrological change, floods and droughts and proxies for impacts on crop yields. At the global scale, all the impacts that could plausibly be either adverse or beneficial are adverse, and impacts and risks increase with temperature change. For example, the global average chance of a major heatwave increases from 5% in 1981–2010 to 28% at 1.5 °C and 92% at 4 °C, of an agricultural drought increases from 9 to 24% at 1.5 °C and 61% at 4 °C, and of the 50-year return period river flood increases from 2 to 2.4% at 1.5 °C and 5.4% at 4 °C. The chance of a damaging hot spell for maize increases from 5 to 50% at 4 °C, whilst the chance for rice rises from 27 to 46%. There is considerable uncertainty around these central estimates, and impacts and risks vary between regions. Some impacts—for example heatwaves—increase rapidly as temperature increases, whilst others show more linear responses. The paper presents estimates of the risk of impacts exceeding specific targets and demonstrates that these estimates are sensitive to the thresholds used

Climate Change, ecosystem impacts and systemic risk

This report highlights some of the vital dependencies of human societies on ecosystems, the damages that can occur from them as a result of climate change, and the steps required to better understand and characterise the systemic risks to societies that result from such climate change-driven ecosystem damages

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact

The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK

The effect of climate change on agriculture in the UK is here assessed using a comprehensive series of policy-relevant agro-climate indicators characterising changes to climate resources and hazards affecting productivity and operations. This paper presents projections of these indicators across the UK with gridded observed data and UKCP18 climate projections representing a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The projections can be used to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation policy. There will be substantial changes in the climate resource and hazard across the UK during the twenty-first century if emissions continue to follow a high trajectory, and there will still be some changes if emissions reduce to achieve international climate policy targets. Growing seasons for certain crops will lengthen, crop growth will be accelerated, and both drought and heat risks (for some types of production) will increase. Soils will become drier in autumn, although there will be less change in winter and spring. The longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures provide opportunities for new crops, subject to the effects of increasing challenges to production. Most of the changes are relatively consistent across the UK, although drought risk and heat stress risk increase most rapidly in the south and east. The climate change trend is superimposed onto considerable year to year variability. Although there is strong consensus across climate projections on the direction of change, there is considerable uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of change for a given emissions scenario. For the temperature-based indicators, this reflects uncertainty in climate sensitivity, whilst for the precipitation-based indicators largely reflects uncertainty in projected changes in the weather systems affecting the UK

Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation

The possibilities and need for adaptation and mitigation depends on uncertain future developments with respect to socio-economic factors and the climate system. Scenarios are used to explore the impacts of different strategies under uncertainty. In this chapter, some scenarios are presented that are used in the ADAM project for this purpose. One scenario explores developments with no mitigation, and thus with high temperature increase and high reliance on adaptation (leading to 4oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). A second scenario explores an ambitious mitigation strategy (leading to 2oC increase by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels). In the latter scenario, stringent mitigation strategies effectively reduces the risks of climate change, but based on uncertainties in the climate system a temperature increase of 3oC or more cannot be excluded. The analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but even then adaptation will be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which adaptation is more cost-effective than mitigation, but mitigation can help reduce damages and the cost of adaptation. For agriculture, finally, only the scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts

Digital pulse-shape discrimination of fast neutrons and gamma rays

Discrimination of the detection of fast neutrons and gamma rays in a liquid scintillator detector has been investigated using digital pulse-processing techniques. An experimental setup with a 252Cf source, a BC-501 liquid scintillator detector, and a BaF2 detector was used to collect waveforms with a 100 Ms/s, 14 bit sampling ADC. Three identical ADC's were combined to increase the sampling frequency to 300 Ms/s. Four different digital pulse-shape analysis algorithms were developed and compared to each other and to data obtained with an analogue neutron-gamma discrimination unit. Two of the digital algorithms were based on the charge comparison method, while the analogue unit and the other two digital algorithms were based on the zero-crossover method. Two different figure-of-merit parameters, which quantify the neutron-gamma discrimination properties, were evaluated for all four digital algorithms and for the analogue data set. All of the digital algorithms gave similar or better figure-of-merit values than what was obtained with the analogue setup. A detailed study of the discrimination properties as a function of sampling frequency and bit resolution of the ADC was performed. It was shown that a sampling ADC with a bit resolution of 12 bits and a sampling frequency of 100 Ms/s is adequate for achieving an optimal neutron-gamma discrimination for pulses having a dynamic range for deposited neutron energies of 0.3-12 MeV. An investigation of the influence of the sampling frequency on the time resolution was made. A FWHM of 1.7 ns was obtained at 100 Ms/s.Comment: 26 pages, 14 figures, submitted to Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research

Methods for Evaluating Social Vulnerability to Drought

Social vulnerability to drought is complex and it is reflected by society’s capacity to anticipate, cope with and respond. Here we estimate these aspects of social vulnerability, evaluating the natural resource structure, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and aspects of agricultural innovation. These factors are components of a vulnerability index and they can be weighted appropriately in computing the final value of the index. In this chapter we present the results of the index under two valuation scenarios. For Scenario 1 all components are valued equally. For Scenario 2 the human resources component is given 50% of the weight, the economic and natural resource components are given 20% of the weight each, and the agricultural technology is given 10% of the weight. This reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination and mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought and that agriculture is only one of the sectors affected by drought. The vulnerability index establishes robust conclusions since the range of values across countries does not change with the assumptions under the two scenarios

Individual differences in naturally occurring affect predict conceptual breadth: evidence for the importance of arousal by valence interactions.

Several studies have investigated the effect of induced mood state on conceptual breadth (breadth and flexibility of thought). Early studies concluded that inducing a positive mood state broadened cognition, while inducing a negative mood state narrowed cognition. However, recent reports have suggested that valence and arousal can each influence conceptual breadth. Individual differences in affective dispositions may bias perceptions, thoughts, and behaviors and, in turn, may be biased by them. Here, we examine whether individual differences in valence and arousal dimensions of self-reported, naturally occurring affect relate to conceptual breadth (using the Remote Associates Test, the Object Categorization Task, and the Alternative Uses Task), with no mood manipulations or cues. The three conceptual breadth tasks loaded onto a latent conceptual breadth factor that was predicted significantly by the interaction of valence and arousal. For participants low in arousal, greater positive affect was associated with greater conceptual breadth. For participants high in arousal, greater positive affect was associated with reduced conceptual breadth. In contrast to most existing theories of conceptual breadth that highlight the importance of valence or arousal alone, the present results suggest that the interaction between arousal and valence is key to predicting individual differences in conceptual breadth. We posit that positive mood states predict greater conceptual breadth in the presence of low versus high arousal due to a relaxation of cognitive control under low arousal.The Brock Library Open Access Publishing Fun

The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors