The IRI Seasonal Climate Prediction System and the 1997/98 El Niño Event

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) was formed in late 1996 with the aim of fostering the improvement, production, and use of global forecasts of seasonal to interannual climate variability for the explicit benefit of society. The development of the 1997/98 El Niño provided an ideal impetus to the IRI Experimental Forecast Division (IRI EFD) to generate seasonal climate forecasts on an operational basis. In the production of these forecasts an extensive suite of forecasting tools has been developed, and these are described in this paper. An argument is made for the need for a multimodel ensemble approach and for extensive validation of each model's ability to simulate interannual climate variability accurately. The need for global sea surface temperature forecasts is demonstrated. Forecasts of precipitation and air temperature are presented in the form of "net assessments," following the format adopted by the regional consensus forums. During the 1997/98 El Niño,the skill of the net assessments was greater than chance, except over Europe, and in most cases was an improvement over a forecast of persistence of the latest month's climate anomaly

From Your Nose to Your Toes: A Review of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Pandemic‒Associated Pernio

Despite thousands of reported patients with pandemic-associated pernio, low rates of seroconversion and PCR positivity have defied causative linkage to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Pernio in uninfected children is associated with monogenic disorders of excessive IFN-1 immunity, whereas severe COVID-19 pneumonia can result from insufficient IFN-1. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and robust IFN-1 response are seen in the skin of patients with pandemic-associated pernio, suggesting an excessive innate immune skin response to SARS-CoV-2. Understanding the pathophysiology of this phenomenon may elucidate the host mechanisms that drive a resilient immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and could produce relevant therapeutic targets

A Community-Based Approach to Developing a Mobile Device for Measuring Ambient Air Exposure, Location, and Respiratory Health

In west Eugene (Oregon), community research indicates residents are disproportionately exposed to industrial air pollution and exhibit increased asthma incidence. In Carroll County (Ohio), recent increases in unconventional natural gas drilling sparked air quality concerns. These community concerns led to the development of a prototype mobile device to measure personal chemical exposure, location, and respiratory function. Working directly with the environmental justice (EJ) communities, the prototype was developed to (1) meet the needs of the community and; (2) evaluate the use in EJ communities. The prototype was evaluated in 3 community focus groups (n=25) to obtain feedback on the prototype and feasibility study design to evaluate the efficacy of the device to address community concerns. Focus groups were recorded and qualitatively analyzed with discrete feedback tabulated for further refinement. The prototype was improved by community feedback resulting in 8 alterations/additions to software and instructional materials. Overall, focus group participants were supportive of the device and believed it would be a useful environmental health tool. The use of focus groups ensured that community members were engaged in the research design and development of a novel environmental health tool. We found that community-based research strategies resulted in a refined device as well as relevant research questions, specific to the EJ community needs and concerns

Memory in Microbes: Quantifying History-Dependent Behavior in a Bacterium

Memory is usually associated with higher organisms rather than bacteria. However, evidence is mounting that many regulatory networks within bacteria are capable of complex dynamics and multi-stable behaviors that have been linked to memory in other systems. Moreover, it is recognized that bacteria that have experienced different environmental histories may respond differently to current conditions. These “memory” effects may be more than incidental to the regulatory mechanisms controlling acclimation or to the status of the metabolic stores. Rather, they may be regulated by the cell and confer fitness to the organism in the evolutionary game it participates in. Here, we propose that history-dependent behavior is a potentially important manifestation of memory, worth classifying and quantifying. To this end, we develop an information-theory based conceptual framework for measuring both the persistence of memory in microbes and the amount of information about the past encoded in history-dependent dynamics. This method produces a phenomenological measure of cellular memory without regard to the specific cellular mechanisms encoding it. We then apply this framework to a strain of Bacillus subtilis engineered to report on commitment to sporulation and degradative enzyme (AprE) synthesis and estimate the capacity of these systems and growth dynamics to ‘remember’ 10 distinct cell histories prior to application of a common stressor. The analysis suggests that B. subtilis remembers, both in short and long term, aspects of its cell history, and that this memory is distributed differently among the observables. While this study does not examine the mechanistic bases for memory, it presents a framework for quantifying memory in cellular behaviors and is thus a starting point for studying new questions about cellular regulation and evolutionary strategy

Higher COVID-19 pneumonia risk associated with anti-IFN-α than with anti-IFN-ω auto-Abs in children

We found that 19 (10.4%) of 183 unvaccinated children hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia had autoantibodies (auto-Abs) neutralizing type I IFNs (IFN-alpha 2 in 10 patients: IFN-alpha 2 only in three, IFN-alpha 2 plus IFN-omega in five, and IFN-alpha 2, IFN-omega plus IFN-beta in two; IFN-omega only in nine patients). Seven children (3.8%) had Abs neutralizing at least 10 ng/ml of one IFN, whereas the other 12 (6.6%) had Abs neutralizing only 100 pg/ml. The auto-Abs neutralized both unglycosylated and glycosylated IFNs. We also detected auto-Abs neutralizing 100 pg/ml IFN-alpha 2 in 4 of 2,267 uninfected children (0.2%) and auto-Abs neutralizing IFN-omega in 45 children (2%). The odds ratios (ORs) for life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia were, therefore, higher for auto-Abs neutralizing IFN-alpha 2 only (OR [95% CI] = 67.6 [5.7-9,196.6]) than for auto-Abs neutralizing IFN-. only (OR [95% CI] = 2.6 [1.2-5.3]). ORs were also higher for auto-Abs neutralizing high concentrations (OR [95% CI] = 12.9 [4.6-35.9]) than for those neutralizing low concentrations (OR [95% CI] = 5.5 [3.1-9.6]) of IFN-omega and/or IFN-alpha 2

Light-based treatment of pediatric port-wine birthmarks.

Port-wine birthmarks (PWBs) are progressive vascular malformations with significant disfigurement and psychosocial morbidity; early light-based treatment has shown improved outcomes in the pediatric population. Somatic mosaic mutations underly the progressive nature of PWBs and explain the significant differences in response and heterogeneity of vessel architecture in the pediatric population when compared to the adult cohort. Here, we summarize a review of pediatric specific literature on the various light-based treatment modalities, including pulsed dye laser, near-infrared lasers, and intense pulsed light, providing the various indications, tips, advantages, and disadvantages for the pediatric dermatologist

Light-based treatment of pediatric port-wine birthmarks.

Port-wine birthmarks (PWBs) are progressive vascular malformations with significant disfigurement and psychosocial morbidity; early light-based treatment has shown improved outcomes in the pediatric population. Somatic mosaic mutations underly the progressive nature of PWBs and explain the significant differences in response and heterogeneity of vessel architecture in the pediatric population when compared to the adult cohort. Here, we summarize a review of pediatric specific literature on the various light-based treatment modalities, including pulsed dye laser, near-infrared lasers, and intense pulsed light, providing the various indications, tips, advantages, and disadvantages for the pediatric dermatologist