Comparison of various climate change projections of eastern Australian rainfall

The Australian eastern seaboard is a distinct climate entity from the interior of the continent, with different climatic influences on each side of the Great Dividing Range. Therefore, it is plausible that downscaling of global climate models could reveal meaningful regional detail, or ‘added value’, in the climate change signal of mean rainfall change in eastern Australia un-der future scenarios. However, because downscaling is typically done using a limited set of global climate models and downscaling methods, the results from a downscaling study may not represent the range of uncertainty in plausible projected change for a region suggested by the ensemble of host global climate models. A complete and unbiased representation of the plausible changes in the climate is essential in producing climate projections useful for future planning. As part of this aim it is important to quantify any differences in the change signal between global climate models and downscaling, and understand the cause of these differ-ences in terms of plausible added regional detail in the climate change signal, the impact of sub-sampling global climate models and the effect of the downscaling models themselves. Here we examine rainfall projections in eastern Australia under a high emissions scenario by late in the century from ensembles of global climate models, two dynamical downscaling models and one statistical downscaling model. We find no cases where all three downscaling methods show the same clear regional spatial detail in the change signal that is distinct from the host models. However, some downscaled projections suggest that the eastern seaboard could see little change in spring rainfall, in contrast to the substantial rainfall decrease inland. The change signal in the downscaled outputs is broadly similar at the large scale in the various model outputs, with a few notable exceptions. For example, the model median from dynamical downscaling projects a rainfall increase over the entirety of eastern Australia in autumn that is greater than the global models. Also, there are some instances where a downscaling method produces changes outside the range of host models over eastern Australia as a whole, thus ex-panding the projected range of uncertainty. Results are particularly uncertain for summer, where no two downscaling studies clearly agree. There are also some confounding factors from the model configuration used in downscaling, where the particular zones used for statis-tical models and the model components used in dynamical models have an influence on results and produce additional uncertainty

El Derecho del Trabajo y de la Seguridad Social en España en 2015. Sección Juvenil de la Asociación Española de Derecho del Trabajo y de la Seguridad Social.

Este Informe deja constancia de los cambios normativos más relevantes y de las tendencias judiciales más paradigmáticas del ordenamiento laboral en 2015. En él se observa el imparable dinamismo del Derecho del Trabajo y de la Seguridad Social en España. El documento, consciente de tal mutabilidad, recoge una minuciosa selección de cuestiones esenciales, a juicio de las personas que abordan cada una de las materias, de las que son especialistas; los autores y las autoras, que forman parte de la Sección Juvenil de la Asociación Española de Derecho del Trabajo y de la Seguridad Social, se adscriben a los grupos temáticos por afinidad con sus principales líneas de investigación y su labor docente universitaria. En síntesis, en el Informe “El Derecho del Trabajo y de la Seguridad Social en España en 2015” se puede encontrar información muy útil para los profesionales del iuslaboralismo en materia de derechos fundamentales inespecíficos, contratación laboral y empleo, vicisitudes del contrato de trabajo, derechos colectivos, igualdad y corresponsabilidad, Seguridad Social o prevención de riesgos laborales. This report has as aim leaving a record of the most relevant normative changes and the most paradigmatic judicial trends in Labour Law in 2015. One can easily observe the unstoppable dynamismof Labour and Social Security Law in Spain. The document, conscious of that mutability, collects a thorough selection of key issues, according to the judgement of the authors, all of them specialists and all of them members of the Young Scholars’ Section of the Spanish Association for Labour and Social Security Law. They are part of thematic groups, linked to their main research lines and their teaching task. Summing up, in this report “Labour and Social Security Law in Spain in 2015”, one can easily find useful information for labour lawyers in subjects such as unspecific fundamental rights, work contracts and employment, issues of the labour relationship, collective rights, equality and co-responsibility, Social Security or occupational risk prevention

Convection-permitting modeling with regional climate models : Latest developments and next steps

Approximately 10 years ago, convection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) emerged as a promising computationally affordable tool to produce fine resolution (1-4 km) decadal-long climate simulations with explicitly resolved deep convection. This explicit representation is expected to reduce climate projection uncertainty related to deep convection parameterizations found in most climate models. A recent surge in CPRCM decadal simulations over larger domains, sometimes covering continents, has led to important insights into CPRCM advantages and limitations. Furthermore, new observational gridded datasets with fine spatial and temporal (similar to 1 km; similar to 1 h) resolutions have leveraged additional knowledge through evaluations of the added value of CPRCMs. With an improved coordination in the frame of ongoing international initiatives, the production of ensembles of CPRCM simulations is expected to provide more robust climate projections and a better identification of their associated uncertainties. This review paper presents an overview of the methodology to produce CPRCM simulations and the latest research on the related added value in current and future climates. Impact studies that are already taking advantage of these new CPRCM simulations are highlighted. This review paper ends by proposing next steps that could be accomplished to continue exploiting the full potential of CPRCMs. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Earth System Model

Precipitation bias correction of very high resolution regional climate models

Regional climate models are prone to biases in precipitation that are problematic for use in impact models such as hydrology models. A large number of methods have already been proposed aimed at correcting various moments of the rainfall distribution. They all require that the model produce the same or a higher number of rain days than the observational data sets, which are usually gridded data sets. Models have traditionally met this condition because their spatial resolution was coarser than the observational grids. But recent climate simulations use higher resolution and the models are likely to systematically produce fewer rain days than the gridded observations.In this study, model outputs from a simulation at 2 km resolution are compared with gridded and in situ observational data sets to determine whether the new scenario calls for revised methodologies. The gridded observations are found to be inadequate to correct the high-resolution model at daily timescales, because they are subjected to too frequent low intensity precipitation due to spatial averaging. A histogram equalisation bias correction method was adapted to the use of station, alleviating the problems associated with relative low-resolution observational grids. The wet-day frequency condition might not be satisfied for extremely dry biases, but the proposed approach substantially increases the applicability of bias correction to high-resolution models. The method is efficient at bias correcting both seasonal and daily characteristic of precipitation, providing more accurate information that is crucial for impact assessment studies

Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Familial Hypercholesterolemia: The SAFEHEART Registry (Spanish Familial Hypercholesterolemia Cohort Study).

Although risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) have been described, models for predicting incident ASCVD have not been reported. Our aim was to use the SAFEHEART registry (Spanish Familial Hypercholesterolemia Cohort Study) to define key risk factors for predicting incident ASCVD in patients with FH. SAFEHEART is a multicenter, nationwide, long-term prospective cohort study of a molecularly defined population with FH with or without previous ASCVD. Analyses to define risk factors and to build a risk prediction equation were developed, and the risk prediction equation was tested for its ability to discriminate patients who experience incident ASCVD from those who did not over time. We recruited 2404 adult patients with FH who were followed up for a mean of 5.5 years (SD, 3.2 years), during which 12 (0.5%) and 122 (5.1%) suffered fatal and nonfatal incident ASCVD, respectively. Age, male sex, history of previous ASCVD, high blood pressure, increased body mass index, active smoking, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and lipoprotein(a) levels were independent predictors of incident ASCVD from which a risk equation with a Harrell C index of 0.85 was derived. The bootstrap resampling (100 randomized samples) of the original set for internal validation showed a degree of overoptimism of 0.003. Individual risk was estimated for each person without an established diagnosis of ASCVD before enrollment in the registry by use of the SAFEHEART risk equation, the modified Framingham risk equation, and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ASCVD Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. The Harrell C index for these models was 0.81, 0.78, and 0.8, respectively, and differences between the SAFEHEART risk equation and the other 2 were significant (P=0.023 and P=0.045). The risk of incident ASCVD may be estimated in patients with FH with simple clinical predictors. This finding may improve risk stratification and could be used to guide therapy in patients with FH. URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02693548

Combined intracellular nitrate and NIT2 effects on storage carbohydrate metabolism in Chlamydomonas

Microalgae are receiving increasing attention as alternative production systems for renewable energy such as biofuel. The photosynthetic alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii is widely recognized as the model system to study all aspects of algal physiology, including the molecular mechanisms underlying the accumulation of starch and triacylglycerol (TAG), which are the precursors of biofuel. All of these pathways not only require a carbon (C) supply but also are strongly dependent on a source of nitrogen (N) to sustain optimal growth rate and biomass production. In order to gain a better understanding of the regulation of C and N metabolisms and the accumulation of storage carbohydrates, the effect of different N sources (NH(4)NO(3) and [Image: see text]) on primary metabolism using various mutants impaired in either NIA1, NIT2 or both loci was performed by metabolic analyses. The data demonstrated that, using NH(4)NO(3), nia1 strain displayed the most striking phenotype, including an inhibition of growth, accumulation of intracellular nitrate, and strong starch and TAG accumulation. The measurements of the different C and N intermediate levels (amino, organic, and fatty acids), together with the determination of acetate and [Image: see text] remaining in the medium, clearly excluded the hypothesis of a slower [Image: see text] and acetate assimilation in this mutant in the presence of NH(4)NO(3). The results provide evidence of the implication of intracellular nitrate and NIT2 in the control of C partitioning into different storage carbohydrates under mixotrophic conditions in Chlamydomonas. The underlying mechanisms and implications for strategies to increase biomass yield and storage product composition in oleaginous algae are discussed