The role of sustainability characteristics in the diffusion of renewable energy technologies

This paper aims to investigate the role of sustainability factors in the diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies. A combined economic innovation-diffusion model that accounts for additional sustainability aspects is proposed. Two and three-stage least square methods were used for the empirical estimation, and the results were compared to a maximum entropy econometric estimation. The findings indicate that sustainability characteristics (i.e., cell efficiency) have a statistically significant positive effect on installed capacity in all solar PV technologies under analysis. Results show that multijunction PV modules have a learning rate of 17.1%, while Monojunction and the global aggregate have similar learning rates of 19.5% and 19%, respectively. Thin film PV modules have learning rates of 17.9% for the period 1991–2019. Cost reductions in solar PV modules can be largely attributed to learning-by-doing activities, the effects of learning by searching are ambiguous and depend both on the estimation methodology and the period under analysis. The study recognizes the difficulty in measuring sustainability characteristics, such as social aspects of the SDGs or indirect environmental implications but suggest that qualitative research can complement the quantitative analysis.publishedVersio

Review of macroeconomic approaches to modelling Wellbeing, Inclusion, and Sustainability

In response to the urgent global challenges of climate change and rising inequality, the need to re-evaluate our traditional economic models and adopt new approaches focused on sustainability, wellbeing, and inclusion has become evident. The current economic paradigms, based on equilibrium thinking and GDP-centric measurements, have proven inadequate in addressing the intricate interplay between economic, social, and environmental dimensions. As we embark on a transformative journey towards a sustainable and equitable future, it is crucial to adopt diverse modelling approaches to provide policymakers and stakeholders with informed decision-making tools. This report delves into the analysis of five different macroeconomic model types (general equilibrium models, macro-econometric & input-output models, stockflow-consistent models, integrated assessment models, and system dynamics models), evaluating their respective strengths and weaknesses to propose an integrated framework that encompasses the multifaceted nature of our world. A key recommendation is to improve existing models by enhancing their dynamics and feedback loops between dimensions and systems, thus better reflecting the interactions and effects of different social and economic policies. Striking a balance between complexity and transparency is essential, ensuring that models remain flexible and capable of linking with models with greater detail but narrower focus. The report emphasizes the incorporation of WISE accounts (detailed data on Wellbeing, Inclusion, Sustainability, and Economy that will be collected and harmonized during the project) into macroeconomic models as an opportunity to overcome the challenge of data availability, which poses a significant obstacle in modelling endeavours. Robust and reliable data sources are crucial to the success of any model and require continual improvement in data collection processes. To broaden our understanding of the dynamics of WISE dimensions and the potential impacts of policies, integrating alternative perspectives, such as heterodox economics, can offer valuable insights. Co-creating quantitative analysis with stakeholders enhances ownership and uptake of the models and may help with bridging the gap between research and policy implementation. Furthermore, an integrated modelling framework that accounts for the non-linear interactions between human and earth systems is necessary to properly assess policies tackling 21st century challenges in the context of WISE dimensions. This integrated model should draw upon the data of WISE accounts and synergize elements of Input-Output models, System-Dynamics, and Stock-Flow consistent models to provide a structured tool for policymakers and researchers in shaping a sustainable and inclusive future

Market organization in natural resource industries: Empirical analysis of salmon aquaculture

PhD thesis in Risk management and societal safetyThis thesis aims to contribute to a better understanding of the intricacies of market organization in a renewable natural resource industry: The Norwegian salmon industry. Natural resource industries are of special interest because they depend on the interactions between environmental/biological conditions, firms, and institutions (Van Der Ploeg & Poelhekke, 2017; Van der Ploeg & Venables, 2011). In particular, due to the public interest in managing natural resources, industries that rely on them face heavy regulations everywhere; often, the effects of these regulations on natural resources and their related industries may determine if the possession of such resources is a blessing or a curse (Arezki & van der Ploeg, 2007; Van der Ploeg, 2011). The Norwegian salmon aquaculture sector serves as a useful case in market organization for four main reasons: 1) the sector is relatively young (about 50 years), which allows observing the evolution of several stages of industrialization and how firm structure evolved. 2) Within the industrialization process, which in particular has taken place during the last three decades, the sector has experienced different types of regulation aimed at controlling market concentration, production levels, and environmental problems. Especially, the salmon aquaculture sector has been subject to increased scrutiny and regulation due to biological and environmental problems related to fish diseases, effects on stocks of wild salmonid fish, and other emissions from farms. 3) The sector serves a global market with a persistent high demand rarely observed in other industries. 4) At the aggregate level there are a few producing countries with similar production technologies - being Norway the main producer which allows extending the analysis to other competing countries. These particular conditions and the availability of firm-level data on production and costs for the last 20-30 years, makes the Norwegian salmon sector and ideal candidate to empirically evaluate four aspects pertaining market organization: Evolution of a) production costs, b) productivity and productivity dispersion, c) regulations effects on production costs, and d) price relationship with input shocks. A careful analysis of these aspects is required to solve the puzzle of what factors can incentivize or deter the growth and sustainability of the sector in the future. The thesis consists of four papers treating the aspects mentioned above. All of them are empirical applications using firm-level data that covers the period 2001-2016 except for paper number four that covers the period 2000-2019. The rest of this chapter presents (2) the background of the salmon market, (3) research design and methods, (4) summary of the four papers, and (5) contributions and limitations of the thesis

The Future is Circular - Circular Economy and Critical Minerals for the Green Transition

The transition towards a net-zero economy will require a large-scale implementation of low-carbon technologies. Concerns have been raised whether the availability of minerals will be a bottleneck for the green transition, prompting discussion about the opening new mining frontiers for supplying these minerals. One of the most controversial options is the exploration of minerals in the deep sea. Critical minerals are those that have a significant economic importance and that have risks to their supply. Many low-carbon technologies currently depend on these critical minerals. The total demand for minerals and whether critical minerals will become a challenge for the green transition depending on the path we take. The technological choices for decarbonisation in the coming decades are highly uncertain and depend on a wide range of factors such as prices, resource constraints, social and environmental standards, and innovation and technological development. How each of these factors will develop in the medium and long term and how they will interact with each other cannot be predicted. This report looks at the mineral demand for a net-zero emissions energy system, based on the technological decarbonisation path of the Net Zero by 2050 scenario developed by the International Energy Agency. It focuses on seven critical minerals for the green transition: lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, rare earth elements, platinum and copper. These are among the most discussed in studies on mineral bottleneck for new energy technologies and for which demand is expected to grow many-fold. This report looks at the challenge of mineral availability through different perspectives. First, how will technology choices and technology development in the next decades affect total mineral demand? Second, how can circular economy strategies reduce the demand for minerals and also increase the recovery and use of recycled minerals? And finally, what does it mean to have a responsible supply of minerals for the green transition?publishedVersio

Offshore Wind: Employment and value creation of EPCI exports in Norway

The objective of this study is to investigate the value creation potential and the employment effects for the offshore wind engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) sector in Norway up to 2030 considering multiple scenarios. We perform our analysis using a macro-econometric input-output model that allows to observe how changes in one sector affects the remaining sectors of the economy. To highlight the uncertain nature of some of the outlooks and industry inputs for an emerging sector, several scenarios will be investigated. By providing information about net employment and value creation effects per sector, policy makers can implement appropriate measures to maximize the potential posed by the offshore wind industry. Furthermore, measures can be taken to mitigate any potential negative effects that the energy transition can have

Offshore Wind: Employment and value creation of EPCI exports in Norway

The objective of this study is to investigate the value creation potential and the employment effects for the offshore wind engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) sector in Norway up to 2030 considering multiple scenarios. We perform our analysis using a macro-econometric input-output model that allows to observe how changes in one sector affects the remaining sectors of the economy. To highlight the uncertain nature of some of the outlooks and industry inputs for an emerging sector, several scenarios will be investigated. By providing information about net employment and value creation effects per sector, policy makers can implement appropriate measures to maximize the potential posed by the offshore wind industry. Furthermore, measures can be taken to mitigate any potential negative effects that the energy transition can have.publishedVersio

Studie av potensialet for verdiskaping og sysselsetting av sirkulærøkonomiske tiltak.Utvalgte tiltak og case.

Sirkulærøkonomi handler om å utnytte ressursene våre best mulig. Det sikrer bærekraft og verdiskaping på både kort og lang sikt. Sirkulærøkonomien prøver å lukke materialsløyfene for å hindre at mulige ressurser går tapt. Vi ønsker at ressursene skal vare lenger, og derfor at ressursenes verdi og kvalitet forblir så høy som mulig så lenge som mulig. I dette studiet vil vi undersøke hvilke verdiskapings- og sysselsettingspotensialer sirkulærøkonomi kan utløse i ulike sektorer og regioner i Norge frem til 2030. Vi benytter makroøkonomisk kryssløpsanalyse for å utføre disse analysene. EU la i mars 2020 fram sin nye handlingsplan for sirkulærøkonomi, som er en høyt prioritert leveranse under The European Green Deal, EUs grønne vekststrategi. Handlingsplanen inneholder 35 initiativer og tiltak som skal fremme en sirkulærøkonomi, og som vil legges fram de neste tre årene. Mye av dette arbeidet får gjennom EØS-avtalen betydning for Norge, og regjeringen planlegger å legge fram en nasjonal strategi om sirkulærøkonomi i 2020. Med bakgrunn i de overnevnte handlingsplanene, reguleringer og mål ser vi i dette studiet nærmere på følgende sektorer og produkter: • Elektronikk og elektronisk utstyr • Tekstiler • Møbler • Batterier • Byggevarer • Plastemballasje • Gjenvinning Økt næringsaktivitet, i form av sysselsatte og verdiskaping, er basert på nåværende økonomiske struktur. Å fremskrive disse resultatene frem til 2030 vil ikke nødvendigvis fange hele bildet, men det gir et godt utgangspunkt for å gjøre vurderinger knyttet til den sirkulærøkonomiske omstillingen, samt hvilke tiltak som bør iverksettes for å oppnå ønsket utvikling. Tiltak knyttet til etablering av ny industri bør derfor ta hensyn til både historisk sammensetting og fremtidsbehovene. Resultatene fra de ulike casene og scenarioene beskrevet i denne rapporten viser at verdiskapingspotensialet er betydelig for en omstilling til et mer sirkulærøkonomisk samfunn. Dette vil også kunne medføre et betraktelig behov for nye sysselsatte. Både verdiskaping og behovet for nye sysselsatte er estimert å bre seg utover hele landet, og det er gjort anslag på hvor store virkninger omstillingen kan gi per fylke. En sirkulærøkonomisk omstilling vil også kunne kreve en del endringer for arbeidsplassene, blant annet knyttet til endrede kompetansebehov i nye og eksisterende næringer. Ut ifra analyseresultatene anslår vi at det kommer til å stilles krav til høy domenekunnskap og/eller fagbrev for mange av disse fremvoksende arbeidsplassene. Analysen i denne rapporten viser en tydelig positiv effekt av en sirkulærøkonomisk omstilling. Likevel eksisterer det flere systemiske barrierer, og avgifts- og reguleringssystemer i dagens samfunn som er mer tilrettelagt for lineær produksjon og forbruk. Overgangen til sirkulærøkonomi er ekstremt avhengig av innovativ politikkimplementering, som også beskrevet i "kunnskapsgrunnlag for nasjonal strategi for sirkulærøkonomi".publishedVersio