Spectral Density Ratio Models for Multivariate Extremes

The modeling of multivariate extremes has received increasing recent attention because of its importance in risk assessment. In classical statistics of extremes, the joint distribution of two or more extremes has a nonparametric form, subject to moment constraints. This article develops a semiparametric model for the situation where several multivariate extremal distributions are linked through the action of a covariate on an unspecified baseline distribution, through a so-called density ratio model. Theoretical and numerical aspects of empirical likelihood inference for this model are discussed, and an application is given to pairs of extreme forest temperatures. Supplementary materials for this article are available online

The critical fugacity for surface adsorption of self-avoiding walks on the honeycomb lattice is 1+21+\sqrt{2}

In 2010, Duminil-Copin and Smirnov proved a long-standing conjecture of Nienhuis, made in 1982, that the growth constant of self-avoiding walks on the hexagonal (a.k.a. honeycomb) lattice is $\mu=\sqrt{2+\sqrt{2}}.$ A key identity used in that proof was later generalised by Smirnov so as to apply to a general O(n) loop model with $n\in [-2,2]$ (the case $n=0$ corresponding to SAWs). We modify this model by restricting to a half-plane and introducing a surface fugacity $y$ associated with boundary sites (also called surface sites), and obtain a generalisation of Smirnov's identity. The critical value of the surface fugacity was conjectured by Batchelor and Yung in 1995 to be $y_{\rm c}=1+2/\sqrt{2-n}.$ This value plays a crucial role in our generalized identity, just as the value of growth constant did in Smirnov's identity. For the case $n=0$, corresponding to \saws\ interacting with a surface, we prove the conjectured value of the critical surface fugacity. A crucial part of the proof involves demonstrating that the generating function of self-avoiding bridges of height $T$, taken at its critical point $1/\mu$, tends to 0 as $T$ increases, as predicted from SLE theory.Comment: Major revision, references updated, 25 pages, 13 figure

Predicting microbial water quality with models: Over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments

The application of models to predict concentrations of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) in environmental systems plays an important role for guiding decision-making associated with the management of microbial water quality. In recent years there has been an increasing demand by policy-makers for models to help inform FIO dynamics in order to prioritise efforts for environmental and human-health protection. However, given the limited evidence-base on which FIO models are built relative to other agricultural pollutants (e.g. nutrients) it is imperative that the end-user expectations of FIO models are appropriately managed. In response, this commentary highlights four over-arching questions associated with: (i) model purpose; (ii) modelling approach; (iii) data availability; and (iv) model application, that must be considered as part of good practice prior to the deployment of any modelling approach to predict FIO behaviour in catchment systems. A series of short and longer-term research priorities are proposed in response to these questions in order to promote better model deployment in the field of catchment microbial dynamics

The discontinuous nature of chromospheric activity evolution

Chromospheric activity has been thought to decay smoothly with time and, hence, to be a viable age indicator. Measurements in solar type stars in open clusters seem to point to a different conclusion: chromospheric activity undergoes a fast transition from Hyades level to that of the Sun after about 1 Gyr of main--sequence lifetime and any decaying trend before or after this transition must be much less significant than the short term variations.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, to be published in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Athlete experiences of disordered eating in sport

To date, research into disordered eating in sport has focused on the prevalence and the identification of putative risk factors. Findings suggest that elite female athletes participating in sports with a focus on leanness or aesthetics are at greatest risk. A paucity of research remains as to the period after onset and how existing sufferers manage their illness over time. In line with the principles of interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA), this study 'gives voice' to four athletes who have experienced disordered eating, documenting their personal accounts and interpreting these accounts from a psychological perspective. In‐depth, semi‐structured interviews were conducted and verbatim transcripts were analysed according to the procedures of IPA. Three superordinate themes emerged from the data: the struggle to disclose, social support needs and identity challenges. Athletes' stories provided rich descriptions of their subjective disordered eating experiences. Their accounts give critical insight into the impact of eating disturbance on the lives of athletes. Future research should continue to identify athletes with existing eating problems in order to improve understanding as to how such individuals can best be helped

The contribution of cattle urine and dung to nitrous oxide emissions: Quantification of country specific emission factors and implications for national inventories

Publication history: Accepted - 10 April 2018; Published online - 24 April 2018.Urine patches and dung pats from grazing livestock create hotspots for production and emission of the greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide (N2O), and represent a large proportion of total N2O emissions in many national agricultural greenhouse gas inventories. As such, there is much interest in developing country specific N2O emission factors (EFs) for excretal nitrogen (EF3, pasture, range and paddock) deposited during gazing. The aims of this study were to generate separate N2O emissions data for cattle derived urine and dung, to provide an evidence base for the generation of a country specific EF for the UK from this nitrogen source. The experiments were also designed to determine the effects of site and timing of application on emissions, and the efficacy of the nitrification inhibitor, dicyandiamide (DCD) on N2O losses. This co-ordinated set of 15 plot-scale, year-long field experiments using static chambers was conducted at five grassland sites, typical of the soil and climatic zones of grazed grassland in the UK. We show that the average urine and dung N2O EFs were 0.69% and 0.19%, respectively, resulting in a combined excretal N2O EF (EF3), of 0.49%, which is b25% of the IPCC default EF3 for excretal returns from grazing cattle. Regression analysis suggests that urineN2O EFs were controlledmore by composition than was the case for dung, whilst dung N2O EFs were more related to soil and environmental factors. The urine N2O EF was significantly greater from the site in SW England, and significantly greater from the early grazing season urine application than later applications. Dycandiamide reduced the N2O EF fromurine patches by an average of 46%. The significantly lower excretal EF3 than the IPCC default has implications for the UK's national inventory and for subsequent carbon footprinting of UK ruminant livestock productsThe authors are grateful to the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (now the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs) in Northern Ireland, and the Scottish Government and the Welsh Government for financial support via the InveN2Ory project (AC0116). The work by Rothamsted Research was additionally supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBS/E/C/000I0320). We would also like to thank Jon Moorby (IBERS, Wales, UK), Reading University, SRUC (Scotland, UK) and Conrad Ferris (AFBI, Northern Ireland, UK), for provision of cattle urine and dung

A perspective on physiological studies supporting the provision of scientific advice for the management of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

The inability of physiologists to effect change in fisheries management has been the source of frustration for many decades. Close collaboration between fisheries managers and researchers has afforded our interdisciplinary team an unusual opportunity to evaluate the emerging impact that physiology can have in providing relevant and credible scientific advice to assist in management decisions. We categorize the quality of scientific advice given to management into five levels based on the type of scientific activity and resulting advice (notions, observations, descriptions, predictions and prescriptions). We argue that, ideally, both managers and researchers have concomitant but separate responsibilities for increasing the level of scientific advice provided. The responsibility of managers involves clear communication of management objectives to researchers, including exact descriptions of knowledge needs and researchable problems. The role of the researcher is to provide scientific advice based on the current state of scientific information and the level of integration with management. The examples of scientific advice discussed herein relate to physiological research on the impact of high discharge and water temperature, pathogens, sex and fisheries interactions on in-river migration success of adult Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and the increased understanding and quality of scientific advice that emerges. We submit that success in increasing the quality of scientific advice is a function of political motivation linked to funding, legal clarity in management objectives, collaborative structures in government and academia, personal relationships, access to interdisciplinary experts and scientific peer acceptance. The major challenges with advancing scientific advice include uncertainty in results, lack of integration with management needs and institutional caution in adopting new research. We hope that conservation physiologists can learn from our experiences of providing scientific advice to management to increase the potential for this growing field of research to have a positive influence on resource management

Capture severity, infectious disease processes and sex influence post-release mortality of sockeye salmon bycatch

Bycatch is a common occurrence in heavily fished areas such as the Fraser River, British Columbia, where fisheries target returning adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) en route to spawning grounds. The extent to which these encounters reduce fish survival through injury and physiological impairment depends on multiple factors including capture severity, river temperature and infectious agents. In an effort to characterize the mechanisms of post-release mortality and address fishery and managerial concerns regarding specific regulations, wild-caught Early Stuart sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were exposed to either mild (20 s) or severe (20 min) gillnet entanglement and then held at ecologically relevant temperatures throughout their period of river migration (mid-late July) and spawning (early August). Individuals were biopsy sampled immediately after entanglement and at death to measure indicators of stress and immunity, and the infection intensity of 44 potential pathogens. Biopsy alone increased mortality (males: 33%, females: 60%) when compared with nonbiopsied controls (males: 7%, females: 15%), indicating high sensitivity to any handling during river migration, especially among females. Mortality did not occur until 5-10 days after entanglement, with severe entanglement resulting in the greatest mortality (males: 62%, females: 90%), followed by mild entanglement (males: 44%, females: 70%). Infection intensities of Flavobacterium psychrophilum and Ceratonova shasta measured at death were greater in fish that died sooner. Physiological indicators of host stress and immunity also differed depending on longevity, and indicated anaerobic metabolism, osmoregulatory failure and altered immune gene regulation in premature mortalities. Together, these results implicate latent effects of entanglement, especially among females, resulting in mortality days or weeks after release. Although any entanglement is potentially detrimental, reducing entanglement durations can improve post-release survival