Consequences of cross‐season demographic correlations for population viability

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for—particularly small—populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate

Diverging phenological responses of Arctic seabirds to an earlier spring

The timing of annual events such as reproduction is a critical component of how free‐living organisms respond to ongoing climate change. This may be especially true in the Arctic, which is disproportionally impacted by climate warming. Here, we show that Arctic seabirds responded to climate change by moving the start of their reproduction earlier, coincident with an advancing onset of spring and that their response is phylogenetically and spatially structured. The phylogenetic signal is likely driven by seabird foraging behavior. Surface‐feeding species advanced their reproduction in the last 35 years while diving species showed remarkably stable breeding timing. The earlier reproduction for Arctic surface‐feeding birds was significant in the Pacific only, where spring advancement was most pronounced. In both the Atlantic and Pacific, seabirds with a long breeding season showed a greater response to the advancement of spring than seabirds with a short breeding season. Our results emphasize that spatial variation, phylogeny, and life history are important considerations in seabird phenological response to climate change and highlight the key role played by the species' foraging behavior

What’s the catch with lumpsuckers? A North Atlantic study of seabird bycatch in lumpsucker gillnet fisheries

Worldwide, incidental bycatch in fisheries is a conservation threat to many seabird species. Although knowledge on bycatch of seabirds has increased in the last decade, most stems from longline fisheries and the impacts of coastal gillnet fisheries are poorly understood. Gillnet fishing for North Atlantic lumpsucker (Cyclopterus lumpus) is one such fishery. We collated and synthesized the available information on seabird bycatch in lumpsucker gillnet fisheries across the entire geographical range to estimate and infer the magnitude of their impact on the affected seabird populations. Most birds killed were diving ducks, cormorants and auks, and each year locally high numbers of seabirds were taken as bycatch. We found large differences in bycatch rates among countries. The estimated mean bycatch in Iceland was 2.43 birds/trip, while the estimates in Norway was 0.44 and 0.39 birds/trip, respectively. The large disparities between estimates might reflect large spatial differences in bycatch rates, but could partly also arise due to distinctions in data recorded by onboard inspectors (Iceland), self-administered registration (Norway) and direct observations by cameras (Denmark). We show that lumpsucker gillnet fisheries might pose a significant risk to some populations of diving seabirds. However, a distinct data deficiency on seabird bycatch in terms of spatio-temporal coverage and the age and origins of the birds killed, limited our abilities to fully assess the extent and population consequences of the bycatch. Our results highlight the need for a joint effort among countries to standardize monitoring methods to better document the impact of these fisheries on seabirds.© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/). The attached file is the published pdf

Inter-population synchrony in adult survival and effects of climate and extreme weather in non-breeding areas of Atlantic puffins

Seabirds are undergoing drastic declines globally and spend the non-breeding season at sea, making it challenging to study the drivers of their survival. Harsh weather and changes in climate conditions can have drastic impacts on seabird population dynamics through increased mortality. The intensity and persistence of extreme events are forecasted to increase with global warming. As shared conditions can induce population synchrony, multi-population studies of key demographic parameters are imperative to explore the influence of climate change. We used long-term mark-recapture data and position (GLS) data to determine non-breeding stop-over areas of five Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations over a latitudinal gradient in the north-eastern Atlantic (56°11’–70°23’N). We investigated synchrony in adult survival in relation to shared stop-over areas. We quantified effects of extreme extra-tropical cyclones (ETC) specific to populations’ stop-over areas and the North Atlantic Oscillation on adult survival. Populations with overlapping stop-over areas exhibited temporal synchrony in survival rates. Winter ETCs negatively influenced survival in one population, which was the one most exposed to extreme weather, but did not directly influence adult survival in the other four populations. Synchrony among populations with shared stop-over areas highlights the importance of these areas for adult survival, a key life-history rate. However, extreme weather was not identified as a driving factor for four of the population. This suggests other factors in these areas, likely related to bottom-up trophic interactions, as environmental drivers of synchrony in the survival of Atlantic puffins

Six pelagic seabird species of the North Atlantic engage in a fly-and-forage strategy during their migratory movements

Funding Information: We thank all the fieldworkers for their hard work collecting data. Funding for this study was provided by the Norwegian Ministry for Climate and the Environment, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association along with 8 oil companies through the SEATRACK project (www. seapop. no/ en/ seatrack). Fieldwork in Norwegian colonies (incl. Svalbard and Jan Mayen) was supported by the SEAPOP program (www.seapop.no, grant no. 192141). The French Polar Institute (IPEV project 330 to O.C.) supported field operation for Kongsfjord kittiwakes. The work on the Isle of May was also supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Award NE/R016429/1 as part of the UK-SCaPE programme delivering National Capability). We thank Maria Bogdanova for field support and data processing. Finally, we thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their help improving the first version of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Twilight foraging enables European shags to survive the winter across their latitudinal range

Species breeding at high latitudes face a significant challenge of surviving the winter. Such conditions are particularly severe for diurnal marine endotherms such as seabirds. A critical question is therefore what behavioural strategies such species adopt to maximise survival probability. We tested 3 hypotheses: (1) they migrate to lower latitudes to exploit longer day length (‘sun-chasing’), (2) they forage at night (‘night-feeding’), or (3) they target high-quality food patches to minimise foraging time (‘feasting’). We studied the winter migration and foraging strategies of European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis from 6 colonies across a latitudinal gradient from temperate regions to north of the Arctic Circle using geolocators deployed over 11 winters. We found evidence for ‘sun-chasing’, whereby average southerly movements were greatest from colonies at higher latitudes. However, a proportion of individuals from higher latitudes remained resident in winter and, in the absence of daylight, they foraged during twilight and only very occasionally during the night. At lower latitudes, there was little evidence that individuals migrated south, nocturnal feeding was absent, and twilight feeding was infrequent, suggesting that there was sufficient daylight in winter. There was no evidence that winter foraging time was lowest at higher latitudes, as predicted by the ‘feasting’ hypothesis. Our results suggest that shags adopt different behavioural strategies to survive the winter across their latitudinal range, dictated by the differing light constraints. Our study highlights the value of multi-colony studies in testing key hypotheses to explain population persistence in seabird species that occur over large latitudinal ranges

Hemispheric asymmetry in ocean change and the productivity of ecosystem sentinels

Climate change and other human activities are causing profound effects on marine ecosystem productivity. We show that the breeding success of seabirds is tracking hemispheric differences in ocean warming and human impacts, with the strongest effects on fish-eating, surface-foraging species in the north. Hemispheric asymmetry suggests the need for ocean management at hemispheric scales. For the north, tactical, climate-based recovery plans for forage fish resources are needed to recover seabird breeding productivity. In the south, lower-magnitude change in seabird productivity presents opportunities for strategic management approaches such as large marine protected areas to sustain food webs and maintain predator productivity. Global monitoring of seabird productivity enables the detection of ecosystem change in remote regions and contributes to our understanding of marine climate impacts on ecosystems