Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

AlGaN Nanostructures for Electron Beam Pumped UV Emitters

International audienceUV disinfection is receiving renewed attention due to the global pandemic, as an immediately deployable and cost-effective option. The common sources used for this application are low-pressure arc lamps, emitting at 254 nm and containing toxic mercury, which Europe is trying to phase out. Furthermore, this radiation is highly carcinogenic and cataractogenic, which represents a health hazard. Recently different replacements for mercury lamps have been proposed, e.g. excimer lamps that emit at 222 nm, supposedly harmless. However, most of the focus is now on AlGaN-based UV LEDs, with numerous advantages (fast on/off switching, longer lifetime, reduced ozone generation, wider wavelength selection). Yet the wall plug efficiency of commercial LEDs at 260 nm is WPE < 1%, far below that of mercury lamps, and drops dramatically at shorter wavelengths. Therefore, there is still a need and opportunity for alternative UV sources.This work proposes electron-beam pumped UV lamps as an alternative to LEDs to overcome issues related to doping, transport and contacting. This approach obviates the need for p-type doping and efficient and homogeneous carrier injection is achieved without an electron blocking layer. Furthermore, the WPE should not vary much over 210−350 nm. Here, we study the performance of AlGaN/AlN dots-in-a-wire [1] and Stranski-Krastanov quantum dot superlattices [2], whose UV emission can be tailored in the 230-330 nm range. The three-dimensional (3D) carrier confinement in such nanostructures results in high internal quantum efficiency (IQE = 50% on average) and promising external quantum efficiency (EQE up to 5% for as-grown structures). Studies conducted under operation conditions (high injection) show no degradation of the IQE for excitation power densities up to 1 MW/cm2, obtained by pumping with a pulsed Nd-YAG laser. With e-beam excitation, the emission efficiency remains stable up to 10 kV of acceleration voltage and 0.5 mA of injected current (current limit of our setup). E-beam pumping offers also an interesting alternative for the fabrication of UV lasers, highly demanded in the fields of medicine and biotechnology, as well as in 3D printing and non-line-of-sight communication. Today, this spectral range is covered by gas lasers (ArF, KrF, XeF) or lasers based on frequency conversion (Nd:YAG). III-nitride semiconductor laser diodes are promising candidates to provide an efficient semiconductor-based alternative, but current injection is a major problem for wavelengths shorter than 360 nm.For this application, advantages of the e-beam pumping include higher flexibility in the choice of materials for the active medium due to the absence of doping or electrical contacts, as well as higher radiative recombination efficiency since the electrons and holes generated by impact ionization share the same distribution in the active medium. This technology has enabled the fabrication of ZnSe-based pulsed lasers that emit up to 600 W at 535 nm. There are some studies of e-beam pumped UV lasers using AlGaN/GaN separate confinement heterostructures (SCH), but they are limited to pulsed electron beam excitation at cryogenic temperatures [3,4]. New device architectures are required with the prospect of achieving room temperature lasers. Here, we present a study of undoped AlGaN/GaN SCHs designed to operate under e-beam injection with an acceleration voltage 10 kV. We discuss the effect of spontaneous and piezoelectric polarization on the carrier diffusion and demonstrate that the performance is improved using an asymmetric graded-index separate-confinement heterostructure (GRINSCH).[1] H. Arkumar et al., Nanotechnology 31 505205 (2020).[2] I. Dimkou et al., Nanotechnology 31 204001 (2020).[3] T. Wunderer et al., IEEE Photonics Technology Letters 29 1344 (2017).[4] T. Hayashi et al., Scientific Reports 7 2944 (2017)

Dissecting the genetic landscape of GPCR signaling through phenotypic profiling in C. elegans

Abstract G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) mediate responses to various extracellular and intracellular cues. However, the large number of GPCR genes and their substantial functional redundancy make it challenging to systematically dissect GPCR functions in vivo. Here, we employ a CRISPR/Cas9-based approach, disrupting 1654 GPCR-encoding genes in 284 strains and mutating 152 neuropeptide-encoding genes in 38 strains in C. elegans. These two mutant libraries enable effective deorphanization of chemoreceptors, and characterization of receptors for neuropeptides in various cellular processes. Mutating a set of closely related GPCRs in a single strain permits the assignment of functions to GPCRs with functional redundancy. Our analyses identify a neuropeptide that interacts with three receptors in hypoxia-evoked locomotory responses, unveil a collection of regulators in pathogen-induced immune responses, and define receptors for the volatile food-related odorants. These results establish our GPCR and neuropeptide mutant libraries as valuable resources for the C. elegans community to expedite studies of GPCR signaling in multiple contexts

Wet granulation fine particle ethylcellulose tablets: Effect of production variables and mathematical modeling of drug release

In the present study, the applicability of fine particle ethylcellulose (FPEC) to produce matrix tablets by a wet granulation technique was evaluated. The effect of various formulation and process variables, such as FPEC content, hardness of the tablet, and solubility of the drug, on the release of drug from these tablets was examined. Tablets were prepared by wet granulation of drug and FPEC in an appropriate mass ratio. Theophylline, caffeine, and dyphylline were selected as nonionizable model drugs with solubilities from 8.3 to 330 mg/mL at 25°C. Ibuprofen, phenylpropanolamine hydrochloride, and pseudoephedrine hydrochloride were selected as ionizable drugs with solubilities from 0.1 to 2000 mg/mL at 25°C. Drug release studies were conducted in 37°C water with UV detection. As the FPEC content and the hardness of the tablets increased, the release rate of the drug decreased. The drug release rate increased with an increase in the solubility of the drug. Model equations, intended to elucidate the drug release mechanism, were fitted to the release data. Parameters were generated and data presented by SAS software. The Akaike Information Criterion was also considered to ascertain the best-fit equation. Fickian diffusion and polymer relaxation were the release mechanisms for nonionizable and ionizable drugs

ONECUT2 is a driver of neuroendocrine prostate cancer.

Neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC), a lethal form of the disease, is characterized by loss of androgen receptor (AR) signaling during neuroendocrine transdifferentiation, which results in resistance to AR-targeted therapy. Clinically, genomically and epigenetically, NEPC resembles other types of poorly differentiated neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). Through pan-NET analyses, we identified ONECUT2 as a candidate master transcriptional regulator of poorly differentiated NETs. ONECUT2 ectopic expression in prostate adenocarcinoma synergizes with hypoxia to suppress androgen signaling and induce neuroendocrine plasticity. ONEUCT2 drives tumor aggressiveness in NEPC, partially through regulating hypoxia signaling and tumor hypoxia. Specifically, ONECUT2 activates SMAD3, which regulates hypoxia signaling through modulating HIF1α chromatin-binding, leading NEPC to exhibit higher degrees of hypoxia compared to prostate adenocarcinomas. Treatment with hypoxia-activated prodrug TH-302 potently reduces NEPC tumor growth. Collectively, these results highlight the synergy between ONECUT2 and hypoxia in driving NEPC, and emphasize the potential of hypoxia-directed therapy for NEPC patients

ONECUT2 is a driver of neuroendocrine prostate cancer.

Neuroendocrine prostate cancer (NEPC), a lethal form of the disease, is characterized by loss of androgen receptor (AR) signaling during neuroendocrine transdifferentiation, which results in resistance to AR-targeted therapy. Clinically, genomically and epigenetically, NEPC resembles other types of poorly differentiated neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). Through pan-NET analyses, we identified ONECUT2 as a candidate master transcriptional regulator of poorly differentiated NETs. ONECUT2 ectopic expression in prostate adenocarcinoma synergizes with hypoxia to suppress androgen signaling and induce neuroendocrine plasticity. ONEUCT2 drives tumor aggressiveness in NEPC, partially through regulating hypoxia signaling and tumor hypoxia. Specifically, ONECUT2 activates SMAD3, which regulates hypoxia signaling through modulating HIF1α chromatin-binding, leading NEPC to exhibit higher degrees of hypoxia compared to prostate adenocarcinomas. Treatment with hypoxia-activated prodrug TH-302 potently reduces NEPC tumor growth. Collectively, these results highlight the synergy between ONECUT2 and hypoxia in driving NEPC, and emphasize the potential of hypoxia-directed therapy for NEPC patients