Spatiotemporal Infectious Disease Modeling: A BME-SIR Approach

This paper is concerned with the modeling of infectious disease spread in a composite space-time domain under conditions of uncertainty. We focus on stochastic modeling that accounts for basic mechanisms of disease distribution and multi-sourced in situ uncertainties. Starting from the general formulation of population migration dynamics and the specification of transmission and recovery rates, the model studies the functional formulation of the evolution of the fractions of susceptible-infected-recovered individuals. The suggested approach is capable of: a) modeling population dynamics within and across localities, b) integrating the disease representation (i.e. susceptible-infected-recovered individuals) with observation time series at different geographical locations and other sources of information (e.g. hard and soft data, empirical relationships, secondary information), and c) generating predictions of disease spread and associated parameters in real time, while considering model and observation uncertainties. Key aspects of the proposed approach are illustrated by means of simulations (i.e. synthetic studies), and a real-world application using hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) data from China.J.M. Angulo and A.E. Madrid have been partially supported by grants MTM2009-13250 and MTM2012-32666 of SGPI, and P08-FQM-3834 of the Andalusian CICE, Spain. H-L Yu has been partially supported by a grant from National Science Council of Taiwan (NSC101-2628-E-002-017-MY3 and NSC102-2221-E-002-140-MY3). A. Kolovos was supported by SpaceTimeWorks, LLC. G. Christakos was supported by a Yongqian Chair Professorship (Zhejiang University, China)

Body composition and body fat distribution are related to cardiac autonomic control in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease patients

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Heart rate recovery (HRR), a cardiac autonomic control marker, was shown to be related to body composition (BC), yet this was not tested in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients. The aim of this study was to determine if, and to what extent, markers of BC and body fat (BF) distribution are related to cardiac autonomic control in NAFLD patients. SUBJECTS/METHODS: BC was assessed with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in 28 NAFLD patients (19 men, 51±13 years, and 9 women, 47±13 years). BF depots ratios were calculated to assess BF distribution. Subjects’ HRR was recorded 1 (HRR1) and 2 min (HRR2) immediately after a maximum graded exercise test. RESULTS: BC and BF distribution were related to HRR; particularly weight, trunk BF and trunk BF-to-appendicular BF ratio showed a negative relation with HRR1 (r 1⁄4 0.613, r 1⁄4 0.597 and r 1⁄4 0.547, respectively, Po0.01) and HRR2 (r 1⁄4 0.484, r 1⁄4 0.446, Po0.05, and r 1⁄4 0.590, Po0.01, respectively). Age seems to be related to both HRR1 and HRR2 except when controlled for BF distribution. The preferred model in multiple regression should include trunk BF-to-appendicular BF ratio and BF to predict HRR1 (r2 1⁄4 0.549; Po0.05), and trunk BF-to-appendicular BF ratio alone to predict HRR2 (r2 1⁄4 0.430; Po0.001). CONCLUSIONS: BC and BF distribution were related to HRR in NAFLD patients. Trunk BF-to-appendicular BF ratio was the best independent predictor of HRR and therefore may be best related to cardiovascular increased risk, and possibly act as a mediator in age-related cardiac autonomic control variation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Generalization of entropy based divergence measures for symbolic sequence analysis

Entropy based measures have been frequently used in symbolic sequence analysis. A symmetrized and smoothed form of Kullback-Leibler divergence or relative entropy, the Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD), is of particular interest because of its sharing properties with families of other divergence measures and its interpretability in different domains including statistical physics, information theory and mathematical statistics. The uniqueness and versatility of this measure arise because of a number of attributes including generalization to any number of probability distributions and association of weights to the distributions. Furthermore, its entropic formulation allows its generalization in different statistical frameworks, such as, non-extensive Tsallis statistics and higher order Markovian statistics. We revisit these generalizations and propose a new generalization of JSD in the integrated Tsallis and Markovian statistical framework. We show that this generalization can be interpreted in terms of mutual information. We also investigate the performance of different JSD generalizations in deconstructing chimeric DNA sequences assembled from bacterial genomes including that of E. coli, S. enterica typhi, Y. pestis and H. influenzae. Our results show that the JSD generalizations bring in more pronounced improvements when the sequences being compared are from phylogenetically proximal organisms, which are often difficult to distinguish because of their compositional similarity. While small but noticeable improvements were observed with the Tsallis statistical JSD generalization, relatively large improvements were observed with the Markovian generalization. In contrast, the proposed Tsallis-Markovian generalization yielded more pronounced improvements relative to the Tsallis and Markovian generalizations, specifically when the sequences being compared arose from phylogenetically proximal organisms.publishedVersionFil: Ré, Miguel Ángel. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Córdoba. Centro de Investigación en Informática para la Ingeniería. Departamento de Ciencias Básicas; Argentina.Fil: Ré, Miguel Ángel. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía y Física; Argentina.Fil: Azad, Rajeev K. University of North Texas. College of Science. Department of Biological Sciences; Estados Unidos de América.Fil: Azad, Rajeev K. University of North Texas. College of Science. Department of Mathematics; Estados Unidos de América.Ciencias de la Información y Bioinformática (desarrollo de hardware va en 2.2 "Ingeniería Eléctrica, Electrónica y de Información" y los aspectos sociales van en 5.8 "Comunicación y Medios"

Local circuits targeting parvalbumin-containing interneurons in layer IV of rat barrel cortex

Interactions between inhibitory interneurons and excitatory spiny neurons and also other inhibitory cells represent fundamental network properties which cause the so-called thalamo-cortical response transformation and account for the well-known receptive field differences of cortical layer IV versus thalamic neurons. We investigated the currently largely unknown morphological basis of these interactions utilizing acute slice preparations of barrel cortex in P19-21 rats. Layer IV spiny (spiny stellate, star pyramidal and pyramidal) neurons or inhibitory (basket and bitufted) interneurons were electrophysiologically characterized and intracellularly biocytin-labeled. In the same slice, we stained parvalbumin-immunoreactive (PV-ir) interneurons as putative target cells after which the tissue was subjected to confocal image acquisition. Parallel experiments confirmed the existence of synaptic contacts in these types of connection by correlated light and electron microscopy. The axons of the filled neurons differentially targeted barrel PV-ir interneurons: (1) The relative number of all contacted PV-ir cells within the axonal sphere was 5–17% for spiny (n = 10), 32 and 58% for basket (n = 2) and 12 and 13% for bitufted (n = 2) cells. (2) The preferential subcellular site which was contacted on PV-ir target cells was somatic for four and dendritic for five spiny cells; for basket cells, there was a somatic and for bitufted cells a dendritic preference in each examined case. (3) The highest number of contacts on a single PV-ir cell was 9 (4 somatic and 5 dendritic) for spiny neurons, 15 (10 somatic and 5 dendritic) for basket cells and 4 (1 somatic and 3 dendritic) for bitufted cells. These patterns suggest a cell type-dependent communication within layer IV microcircuits in which PV-ir interneurons provide not only feed-forward but also feedback inhibition thus triggering the thalamo-cortical response transformation

Short-Run Regional Forecasts: Spatial Models through Varying Cross-Sectional and Temporal Dimensions

In any economic analysis, regions or municipalities should not be regarded as isolated spatial units, but rather as highly interrelated small open economies. These spatial interrelations must be considered also when the aim is to forecast economic variables. For example, policy makers need accurate forecasts of the unemployment evolution in order to design short- or long-run local welfare policies. These predictions should then consider the spatial interrelations and dynamics of regional unemployment. In addition, a number of papers have demonstrated the improvement in the reliability of long-run forecasts when spatial dependence is accounted for. We estimate a heterogeneouscoefficients dynamic panel model employing a spatial filter in order to account for spatial heterogeneity and/or spatial autocorrelation in both the levels and the dynamics of unemployment, as well as a spatial vector-autoregressive (SVAR) model. We compare the short-run forecasting performance of these methods, and in particular, we carry out a sensitivity analysis in order to investigate if different number and size of the administrative regions influence their relative forecasting performance. We compute short-run unemployment forecasts in two countries with different administrative territorial divisions and data frequency: Switzerland (26 regions, monthly data for 34 years) and Spain (47 regions, quarterly data for 32 years)

Diagnostic value of biochemical markers (FibroTest-FibroSURE) for the prediction of liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND: Liver biopsy is considered as the gold standard for assessing non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) histologic lesions. The aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic utility of non-invasive markers of fibrosis, validated in chronic viral hepatitis and alcoholic liver disease (FibroTest, FT), in patients with NAFLD. METHODS: 170 patients with suspected NAFLD were prospectively included in a reference center (Group 1), 97 in a multicenter study (Group 2) and 954 blood donors as controls. Fibrosis was assessed on a 5 stage histological scale validated by Kleiner et al from F0 = none, F1 = perisinusoidal or periportal, F2 = perisinusoidal and portal/periportal, F3 = bridging and F4 = cirrhosis. Histology and the biochemical measurements were blinded to any other characteristics. The area under the ROC curves (AUROC), sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were assessed. RESULTS: In both groups FT has elevated and not different AUROCs for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (F2F3F4): 0.86 (95%CI 0.77–0.91) versus 0.75 (95%CI 0.61–0.83; P = 0.10), and for F3F4: 0.92 (95%CI 0.83–0.96) versus 0.81 (95%CI 0.64–0.91; P = 0.12) in Group1 and Group 2 respectively. When the 2 groups were pooled together a FT cutoff of 0.30 had a 90% NPV for advanced fibrosis (Se 77%); a FT cutoff of 0.70 had a 73% PPV for advanced fibrosis (Sp 98%). CONCLUSION: In patients with NAFLD, FibroTest, a simple and non-invasive quantitative estimate of liver fibrosis reliably predicts advanced fibrosis

Male Germ Cell-Specific RNA Binding Protein RBMY: A New Oncogene Explaining Male Predominance in Liver Cancer

Male gender is a risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) but the mechanisms are not fully understood. The RNA binding motif gene on the Y chromosome (RBMY), encoding a male germ cell-specific RNA splicing regulator during spermatogenesis, is aberrantly activated in human male liver cancers. This study investigated the in vitro oncogenic effect and the possible mechanism of RBMY in human hepatoma cell line HepG2 and its in vivo effect with regards to the livers of human and transgenic mice. RBMY expression in HepG2 cells was knocked down by RNA interference and the cancer cell phenotype was characterized by soft-agar colony formation and sensitivity to hydrogen-peroxide-induced apoptosis. The results revealed that RBMY knockdown reduced the transformation and anti-apoptotic efficiency of HepG2 cells. The expression of RBMY, androgen receptor (AR) and its inhibitory variant AR45, AR-targeted genes insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) was analyzed by quantitative RT-PCR. Up-regulation of AR45 variant and reduction of IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 expression was only detected in RBMY knockdown cells. Moreover, RBMY positive human male HCC expressed lower level of AR45 as compared to RBMY negative HCC tissues. The oncogenic properties of RBMY were further assessed in a transgenic mouse model. Liver-specific RBMY transgenic mice developed hepatic pre-cancerous lesions, adenoma, and HCC. RBMY also accelerated chemical carcinogen-induced hepatocarcinogenesis in transgenic mice. Collectively, these findings suggest that Y chromosome-specific RBMY is likely involved in the regulation of androgen receptor activity and contributes to male predominance of HCC