Explainable artificial intelligence enhances the ecological interpretability of black-box species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology, biogeography and conservation biology to estimate relationships between environmental variables and species occurrence data and make predictions of how their distributions vary in space and time. During the past two decades, the field has increasingly made use of machine learning approaches for constructing and validating SDMs. Model accuracy has steadily increased as a result, but the interpretability of the fitted models, for example the relative importance of predictor variables or their causal effects on focal species, has not always kept pace. Here we draw attention to an emerging subdiscipline of artificial intelligence, explainable AI (xAI), as a toolbox for better interpreting SDMs. xAI aims at deciphering the behavior of complex statistical or machine learning models (e.g. neural networks, random forests, boosted regression trees), and can produce more transparent and understandable SDM predictions. We describe the rationale behind xAI and provide a list of tools that can be used to help ecological modelers better understand complex model behavior at different scales. As an example, we perform a reproducible SDM analysis in R on the African elephant and showcase some xAI tools such as local interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) to help interpret local-scale behavior of the model. We conclude with what we see as the benefits and caveats of these techniques and advocate for their use to improve the interpretability of machine learning SDMs.Peer reviewe

The Study of Progress: Entropy, Complexity, and the Great Filter

Numerous stumbling blocks are standing in the way of the progress of human civilization. They exist in various domains, including our environment, society and economy, and science and technology. The root cause of those issues can be traced to their complexity. The inability of humans to manage it can lead to a Great Filter event. This essay provides the context for this hypothesis based on historical and physical terms, supporting it with a humanistic and anthropocentric view, concluding with potential future perspectives

Mud Volcanoes: A Window to the Deep Biosphere. Investigating succession and functional shifts in marine deep subsurface microbial communities exposed to mud volcanism

The Haakon Mosby mud volcano (HMMV), located on the continental margin in the Barents Sea, has become one of the best studied mud volcanoes. Those geological formations are characterized by the transport of large amounts of fluids, gas and mud from several kilometers beneath the seafloor. These materials are available for sampling at the seafloor surface - the HMMV is a window to the deep biosphere. A stationary installation as part of the LOOME project detected recent rapid mud discharges, thus rendering the HMMV an ideal location for studying how typical deep-sea microbes may colonize sedimentary material that (presumably) was little in contact with surface microbial life. The v4v6 hyper variable region of the 16S rRNA gene from 16 samples (Archaea and Bacteria) collected at the HMMV has been pyrosequenced as a contribution to the Census of Deep Life (CoDL). The read numbers varied with orders of magnitude between the sites (between 102-104), from the periphery to the center. In the central area, there were very few reads detected, also the samples were very low in species richness and evenness (few species dominating) - the opposite of the old and abundant in reads areas in the hydrate zone and outside of the volcano (many more niches available - less extreme environment). Typical subsurface groups such as Crenarchaeota and Anaerolinecaeae were detected in the central area, and typical surface ones, ANME-3, Methylococcales and SRB in the others. These results confirmed and expanded previous microbial diversity studies on HMMV samples. NMDS plots showed separation of the microbes based on environmental dissimilarity, also providing insights on colonization and the time scales of its occurrence . Archaea and Bacteria followed similar patterns. These results have shed light on a very unique environment, and on a topic of global importance - the deep biosphere, and have underscored the need for even more exhaustive and innovative studies

Managing the century of complexity: origins, evolution and productive future avenues with systems thinking

Progress in human society's technological and social development has come at the cost of staggering complexity. Understanding this complexity's origin, evolution, and consequences is essential for human managers to lay the groundwork for reducing it in their work. Examples from the war in Afghanistan (2011-2021) and Pleistocene Park in northern Siberia support a recommended systems thinking framework and associated skills

PLATELET-RICH PLASMA (PRP) AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE TREATMENT OF CHRONIC AND HARD-TO-HEAL SKIN WOUNDS. A Review.

In the last few years various methods are being applied in the use of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) during treatment in different orthopedic disease. They allow improvement of local biological condition and regeneration of different types of tissues. PRP is a modern treatment strategy with worldwide recognition. There is a high concentration of platelet growth factors in small amounts of plasma. PRP and its various forms have become one of the best methods to support the healing process of various tissues. PRP is used in regenerative medicine, because it provides two of three components (growth factors and scaffolds) necessary for complete tissue regeneration. The particular reason for the appearance of lesions is important in order to select an appropriate treatment method and technical application. PRP may be used for treatment of various chronic and hard-to-heal cutaneous wounds, especially when standard conventional therapy is not good enough and surgical treatment is not possible. It reduces the duration, cost of treatment and the hospital stay. There is reduction of wound pain after starting the treatment, reduced risk of blood-borne disease transmission, wound healing is restored, and local immunity is activated