A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19

Background: Current outbreaks of COVID-19 are threatening the health care systems of several countries around the world. Control measures, based on isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine, can decrease and delay the burden of the ongoing epidemic. With respect to the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, recent modeling work shows that these interventions may be inadequate to control local outbreaks, even when perfect isolation is assumed. The effect of infectiousness prior to symptom onset combined with asymptomatic infectees further complicates the use of contact tracing. We aim to study whether antivirals, which decrease the viral load and reduce infectiousness, could be integrated into control measures in order to augment the feasibility of controlling the epidemic. Methods: Using a simulation-based model of viral transmission, we tested the efficacy of different intervention measures to control local COVID-19 outbreaks. For individuals that were identified through contact tracing, we evaluate two procedures: monitoring individuals for symptoms onset and testing of individuals. Additionally, we investigate the implementation of an antiviral compound combined with the contact tracing process. Results: For an infectious disease in which asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections are plausible, an intervention measure based on contact tracing performs better when combined with testing instead of monitoring, provided that the test is able to detect infections during the incubation period. Antiviral drugs, in combination with contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation, result in a significant decrease of the final size and the peak incidence, and increase the probability that the outbreak will fade out. Conclusion: In all tested scenarios, the model highlights the benefits of control measures based on the testing of traced individuals. In addition, the administration of an antiviral drug, together with quarantine, isolation, and contact tracing, is shown to decrease the spread of the epidemic. This control measure could be an effective strategy to control local and re-emerging outbreaks of COVID-19.publishersversionpublishe

Quantifying superspreading for COVID-19 using Poisson mixture distributions.

The number of secondary cases, i.e. the number of new infections generated by an infectious individual, is an important parameter for the control of infectious diseases. When individual variation in disease transmission is present, like for COVID-19, the distribution of the number of secondary cases is skewed and often modeled using a negative binomial distribution. However, this may not always be the best distribution to describe the underlying transmission process. We propose the use of three other offspring distributions to quantify heterogeneity in transmission, and we assess the possible bias in estimates of the mean and variance of this distribution when the data generating distribution is different from the one used for inference. We also analyze COVID-19 data from Hong Kong, India, and Rwanda, and quantify the proportion of cases responsible for 80% of transmission, [Formula: see text], while acknowledging the variation arising from the assumed offspring distribution. In a simulation study, we find that variance estimates may be biased when there is a substantial amount of heterogeneity, and that selection of the most accurate distribution from a set of distributions is important. In addition we find that the number of secondary cases for two of the three COVID-19 datasets is better described by a Poisson-lognormal distribution

Different forms of superspreading lead to different outcomes:heterogeneity in infectiousness and contact behavior relevant for the case of SARS-CoV-2

Superspreading events play an important role in the spread of several pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2. While the basic reproduction number of the original Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be about 3 for Belgium, there is substantial inter-individual variation in the number of secondary cases each infected individual causes—with most infectious individuals generating no or only a few secondary cases, while about 20% of infectious individuals is responsible for 80% of new infections. Multiple factors contribute to the occurrence of superspreading events: heterogeneity in infectiousness, individual variations in susceptibility, differences in contact behavior, and the environment in which transmission takes place. While superspreading has been included in several infectious disease transmission models, research into the effects of different forms of superspreading on the spread of pathogens remains limited. To disentangle the effects of infectiousness-related heterogeneity on the one hand and contact-related heterogeneity on the other, we implemented both forms of superspreading in an individual-based model describing the transmission and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a synthetic Belgian population. We considered its impact on viral spread as well as on epidemic resurgence after a period of social distancing. We found that the effects of superspreading driven by heterogeneity in infectiousness are different from the effects of superspreading driven by heterogeneity in contact behavior. On the one hand, a higher level of infectiousness-related heterogeneity results in a lower risk of an outbreak persisting following the introduction of one infected individual into the population. Outbreaks that did persist led to fewer total cases and were slower, with a lower peak which occurred at a later point in time, and a lower herd immunity threshold. Finally, the risk of resurgence of an outbreak following a period of lockdown decreased. On the other hand, when contact-related heterogeneity was high, this also led to fewer cases in total during persistent outbreaks, but caused outbreaks to be more explosive in regard to other aspects (such as higher peaks which occurred earlier, and a higher herd immunity threshold). Finally, the risk of resurgence of an outbreak following a period of lockdown increased. We found that these effects were conserved when testing combinations of infectiousness-related and contact-related heterogeneity

Reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in a primary school using epidemiological and genomic data.

peer reviewedMathematical modelling studies have shown that repetitive screening can be used to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in primary schools while keeping schools open. However, not much is known about how transmission progresses within schools and whether there is a risk of importation to households. During the academic year 2020-2021, a prospective surveillance study using repetitive screening was conducted in a primary school and associated households in Liège (Belgium). SARS-CoV-2 screening was performed via throat washing either once or twice a week. We used genomic and epidemiological data to reconstruct the observed school outbreaks using two different models. The outbreaker2 model combines information on the generation time and contact patterns with a model of sequence evolution. For comparison we also used SCOTTI, a phylogenetic model based on the structured coalescent. In addition, we performed a simulation study to investigate how the accuracy of estimated positivity rates in a school depends on the proportion of a school that is sampled in a repetitive screening strategy. We found no difference in SARS-CoV-2 positivity between children and adults and children were not more often asymptomatic compared to adults. Both models for outbreak reconstruction revealed that transmission occurred mainly within the school environment. Uncertainty in outbreak reconstruction was lowest when including genomic as well as epidemiological data. We found that observed weekly positivity rates are a good approximation to the true weekly positivity rate, especially in children, even when only 25% of the school population is sampled. These results indicate that, in addition to reducing infections as shown in modelling studies, repetitive screening in school settings can lead to a better understanding of the extent of transmission in schools during a pandemic and importation risk at the community level

Serial Intervals for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta Variants, Belgium, November 19–December 31, 2021

We investigated the serial interval for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and Delta variants and observed a shorter serial interval for Omicron, suggesting faster transmission. Results indicate a relationship between empirical serial interval and vaccination status for both variants. Further assessment of the causes and extent of Omicron dominance over Delta is warranted

Serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants, Belgium, November 19-December 31, 2021

We investigated the serial interval for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and Delta variants and observed a shorter serial interval for Omicron, suggesting faster transmission. Results indicate a relationship between empirical serial interval and vaccination status for both variants. Further assessment of the causes and extent of Omicron dominance over Delta is warranted

A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19

BACKGROUND: Current outbreaks of COVID-19 are threatening the health care systems of several countries around the world. Control measures, based on isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine, can decrease and delay the burden of the ongoing epidemic. With respect to the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, recent modeling work shows that these interventions may be inadequate to control local outbreaks, even when perfect isolation is assumed. The effect of infectiousness prior to symptom onset combined with asymptomatic infectees further complicates the use of contact tracing. We aim to study whether antivirals, which decrease the viral load and reduce infectiousness, could be integrated into control measures in order to augment the feasibility of controlling the epidemic. METHODS: Using a simulation-based model of viral transmission, we tested the efficacy of different intervention measures to control local COVID-19 outbreaks. For individuals that were identified through contact tracing, we evaluate two procedures: monitoring individuals for symptoms onset and testing of individuals. Additionally, we investigate the implementation of an antiviral compound combined with the contact tracing process. RESULTS: For an infectious disease in which asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections are plausible, an intervention measure based on contact tracing performs better when combined with testing instead of monitoring, provided that the test is able to detect infections during the incubation period. Antiviral drugs, in combination with contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation, result in a significant decrease of the final size and the peak incidence, and increase the probability that the outbreak will fade out. CONCLUSION: In all tested scenarios, the model highlights the benefits of control measures based on the testing of traced individuals. In addition, the administration of an antiviral drug, together with quarantine, isolation, and contact tracing, is shown to decrease the spread of the epidemic. This control measure could be an effective strategy to control local and re-emerging outbreaks of COVID-19.status: publishe

On realized serial and generation intervals given control measures: The COVID-19 pandemic case.

The SARS-CoV-2 pathogen is currently spreading worldwide and its propensity for presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission makes it difficult to control. The control measures adopted in several countries aim at isolating individuals once diagnosed, limiting their social interactions and consequently their transmission probability. These interventions, which have a strong impact on the disease dynamics, can affect the inference of the epidemiological quantities. We first present a theoretical explanation of the effect caused by non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the mean serial and generation intervals. Then, in a simulation study, we vary the assumed efficacy of control measures and quantify the effect on the mean and variance of realized generation and serial intervals. The simulation results show that the realized serial and generation intervals both depend on control measures and their values contract according to the efficacy of the intervention strategies. Interestingly, the mean serial interval differs from the mean generation interval. The deviation between these two values depends on two factors. First, the number of undiagnosed infectious individuals. Second, the relationship between infectiousness, symptom onset and timing of isolation. Similarly, the standard deviations of realized serial and generation intervals do not coincide, with the former shorter than the latter on average. The findings of this study are directly relevant to estimates performed for the current COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, the effective reproduction number is often inferred using both daily incidence data and the generation interval. Failing to account for either contraction or mis-specification by using the serial interval could lead to biased estimates of the effective reproduction number. Consequently, this might affect the choices made by decision makers when deciding which control measures to apply based on the value of the quantity thereof