Testing for Contagion: a Time-Scale Decomposition

The aim of the paper is to test for ¯nancial contagion by estimating a simultaneous equation model subject to structural breaks. For this purpose, we use the Maximum Overlapping Discrete Wavelet Transform, MODWT, to decompose the covariance matrix of four asset returns on a scale by scale basis. This decomposition will enable us to identify the structural form model and to test for spillover e®ects between country speci¯c shocks during a crisis period. We distinguish between the case of the structural form model with a single dummy and the one with multiple dummies capturing shifts in the co-movement of asset returns occurring during periods of ¯nancial turmoil. The empirical results for four East Asian emerging stock markets show that, once we account for interdependence through an (unobservable) common factor, there is hardly any evidence of contagion during the 1997-1998 financial turbulence.wavelets; simultaneous equations model; financial contagion

A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index

The PAWN index is gaining traction among the modelling community as a sensitivity measure. However, the robustness to its design parameters has not yet been scrutinized: the size (N) and sampling (ε) of the model output, the number of conditioning intervals (n) or the summary statistic (θ). Here we fill this gap by running a sensitivity analysis of a PAWN-based sensitivity analysis. We compare the results with the design uncertainties of the Sobol’ total-order index (S*Ti). Unlike in S*Ti, the design uncertainties in PAWN create non-negligible chances of producing biased results when ranking or screening inputs. The dependence of PAWN upon (N, n, ε, θ) is difficult to tame, as these parameters interact with one another. Even in an ideal setting in which the optimum choice for (N, n, ε, θ) is known in advance, PAWN might not allow to distinguish an influential, non-additive model input from a truly non-influential model input

Quantitative storytelling in the making of a composite indicator

The reasons for and against composite indicators are briefly reviewed, as well as the available theories for their construction. After noting the strong normative dimension of these measures—which ultimately aim to ‘tell a story’, e.g. to promote the social discovery of a particular phenomenon, we inquire whether a less partisan use of a composite indicator can be proposed by allowing more latitude in the framing of its construction. We thus explore whether a composite indicator can be built to tell ‘more than one story’ and test this in practical contexts. These include measures used in convergence analysis in the field of cohesion policies and a recent case involving the World Bank’s Doing Business Index. Our experiments are built to imagine different constituencies and stakeholders who agree on the use of evidence and of statistical information while differing on the interpretation of what is relevant and vital

Balancing work and family in Italy: New mothersÂ’ employment decisions after childbirth

Compared with other European countries, the Italian labour market stands out for the low level of both female participation and fertility. In this paper we focus on the employment patterns of Italian mothers around the time of childbirth. Our hypothesis is that the difficulties involved in reconciling work and family when there are children are among the leading causes of the low female employment rate in Italy. Data from the 2002 Italian Birth Sample Survey show that about 20 per cent of mothers who were working before childbirth, stop working one and a half years after delivery and that about 14 per cent voluntarily decide to resign. The paper analyses the factors that most influence new mothersÂ’ unemployment risk after childbirth.female employment, childbirth, childcare

Silver as a constraint for a large-scale development of solar photovoltaics? Scenario-making to the year 2050 supported by expert engagement and global sensitivity analysis

In this study we assess whether availability of silver could constrain a large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV). While silver-paste use in photovoltaics cell metallization is becoming more efficient, solar photovoltaics power capacity installation is growing at an exponential pace. Along photovoltaics, silver is also employed in an array of industrial and non-industrial applications. The trends of these uses are examined up to the year 2050. The technical coefficients for the expansion in photovoltaics power capacity and contraction in silver paste use have been assessed through an expert-consultation process. The trend of use in the non-PV sectors has been estimated through an ARIMA (auto-regressive integrated moving average) model. The yearly and cumulative silver demand are evaluated against the technological potential for increasing silver mining and the estimates of its global natural availability, respectively. The model implemented is tested with a quasi-random Monte Carlo variance-based global sensitivity analysis. The result of our inquiry is that silver may not represent a constraint for a very-large-scale deployment of photovoltaics (up to tens TW in installed power capacity) provided the present decreasing trend in the use of silver paste in the photovoltaics sector continues at an adequate pace. Silver use in non-photovoltaic sectors plays also a tangible influence on potential constraints. In terms of natural constraints, most of the uncertainty is dependent on the actual estimates of silver natural budget

Lineages of the Hegemon - Constructing Dutch Hegemony, XIV-XVII

It is a study aiming at understanding the historical development of a world power within the capitalist world-system , which is also a would-be general perspective or framework of analysis to fathom how a world hegemon emerges out of the history of its own. In a nutshell: it is to be argued that the hegemon is a regime of accumulation wherein state, capital and society work hand in glove with a particular degree of coherence developed within the legal boundaries of its territorial sovereignty. This internal structure of power breeds hegemony, that is, the projection of power unto and onto world space, and into the international system of states and markets. Hence, this study represents an attempt to glean the connection between the internal composition of a regime of accumulation and the propensity and force of the same regime to expand its scale and scope of operation in world space – what Joshua Goldstein calls «lateral pressure» . However, what will be essayed is not the customary inquiry into the projection of power onto the system which a powerful regime engendered, and whose manifestation is what we call hegemony, but an investigation into the inner source and morphology of power whence such a projection primary feeds off. The nub of this study is the hegemon: to understand its path of development, its composition and how it works. More to the point, we will delve into Dutch history to substantiate historically such a perspective. At the end of the sixteenth century a new state called United Provinces stepped into the limelight of European and world history. It emerged out of the war for the independence from the most powerful Empire of the early modern era, the Spanish world power. This war contributed to shape Dutch history. But the United Provinces were more than a development of the sixteenth century. Their historical complexion, as it is to be argued, originated from a past made of unruly ecology and incipient ecological and human commodification. The historical foundations – not their operational organization – arose during the late middle ages, and more precisely in the span of time that went from the XIV to the XVI century. The Dutch Republic, as it was called, became thereby the first hegemon of the modern era through the organized expansion and sovereign structuring of the medieval space of wealth, accumulation and power. In particular, it was the first hegemon of the modern world-system, a capitalist world-economy, the current world historical-social system . The present study is, in general, a very long-run analysis and synthesis of Dutch history to understand the overall movement of power, wealth and capital that characterized the Northern Low Countries from the XIV century to the XVII. The analysis will focus on the power relations, structures, processes, networks, institutions, agents and agencies which developed, operated and changed during this span of tim

Application of Bacteriophage Cocktail in Leafy Green Wash Water to Control Salmonella Enterica

Produce is responsible for 46% of all foodborne illnesses in the USA. Salmonella enterica causes 19,000 hospitalizations each year, and has been associated with produce. Presently, chlorine based sanitizers are most often used, however organic matter reduces its antimicrobial activity. Bacteriophage treatments are an all-natural, alternative method for pathogen inactivation. The objective of this study was to determine the efficacy of a five-strain bacteriophage treatment against a S. enterica cocktail in simulated wash waters at different temperatures. Bacteriophage and S. enterica were enumerated in simulated wash water solutions. One set of experiments studied bacteriophage and S. enterica growth in TSB+vegetable solutions. Bacteriophage behavior was not statistically different (p \u3c 0.05) in spinach, romaine, or iceberg lettuce across different concentrations of organic matter. S. enterica reduction was approximately 2 log over 135 minutes for vegetable solutions and for the TSB control. S. enterica reduction was only 0.5 log in water solutions. The next set of experiments studied bacteriophage and S. enterica growth in vegetable solutions. Spinach wash water and tryptone soy broth solutions (TSB) at 20 °C and 37 °C. S. enterica was not reduced in spinach solution studies at 20 °C and 37 °C or at broth solutions at 20 °C. However, S. enterica was effectively reduced 4 log in broth solutions at 37 °C up to 7.5 hours, but grew to high levels after 24 hours. These results indicate that bacteriophage could not effectively control bacteria levels in produce wash water, and may need to be optimized