Axisymmetric shell analysis of the space shuttle solid rocket booster field joint

The Space Shuttle Challenger (STS 51-L) accident led to an intense investigation of the structural behavior of the solid rocket booster (SRB) tang and clevis field joints. Results are presented of axisymmetric shell analyses that parametrically assess the structural behavior of SRB field joints subjected to quasi-steady-state internal pressure loading for both the original joint flown on mission STS 51-L and the redesigned joint flown for the first time after the STS 51-L accident on the Space Shuttle Discovery. Discussion of axisymmetric shell modeling issues and details is presented and a generic method for simulating contact between adjacent shells of revolution is described. Results are presented that identify the performance trends of the joints for a wide range of joint parameters. An important finding is that the redesigned joint exhibits significantly smaller O-ring gap changes and much less sensitivity to joint clearances than the original joint. For a wide range of joint parameters, the result presented indicate that the redesigned joint provides a much better pressure seal than the original joint

Climate change and the Delta, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal

Snell's Law for a vortex dipole in a Bose-Einstein condensate

A quantum vortex dipole, comprised of a closely bound pair of vortices of equal strength with opposite circulation, is a spatially localized travelling excitation of a planar superfluid that carries linear momentum, suggesting a possible analogy with ray optics. We investigate numerically and analytically the motion of a quantum vortex dipole incident upon a step-change in the background superfluid density of an otherwise uniform two-dimensional Bose-Einstein condensate. Due to the conservation of fluid momentum and energy, the incident and refracted angles of the dipole satisfy a relation analogous to Snell's law, when crossing the interface between regions of different density. The predictions of the analogue Snell's law relation are confirmed for a wide range of incident angles by systematic numerical simulations of the Gross-Piteavskii equation. Near the critical angle for total internal reflection, we identify a regime of anomalous Snell's law behaviour where the finite size of the dipole causes transient capture by the interface. Remarkably, despite the extra complexity of the surface interaction, the incoming and outgoing dipole paths obey Snell's law.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, Scipost forma

SEQUENTIAL BAYESIAN CLASSIFICATION: DNA BARCODES

DNA barcodes are short strands of nucleotide bases taken from the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). A single barcode may have the form C C G G C A T A G T A G G C A C T G and typically ranges in length from 255 to around 700 nucleotide bases. Unlike nuclear DNA (nDNA), mtDNA remains largely unchanged as it is passed from mother to o spring. It has been proposed that these barcodes may be used as a method of di erentiating between biological species (Hebert, Ratnasingham, and deWaard 2003). While this proposal is sharply debated among some taxonomists (Will and Rubino 2004), it has gained much momentum and attention from biologists. One issue at the heart of the controversy is the use of genetic distance measures as a tool for species differentiation. Current methods of species classification utilize these distance measures that are heavily dependent on both evolutionary model assumptions as well as a clearly defined gap between intra- and interspecies variation (Meyer and Paulay 2005). We point out the limitations of such distance measures and propose a character-based method of species classification which utilizes an application of Bayes\u27 rule to overcome these defciencies. The proposed method is shown to provide accurate species-level classification. The proposed methods also provide answers to important questions not addressable with current methods

A sequential naïve Bayes classifier for DNA barcodes

DNA barcodes are short strands of 255–700 nucleotide bases taken from the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) region of the mitochondrial DNA. It has been proposed that these barcodes may be used as a method of differentiating between biological species. Current methods of species classification utilize distance measures that are heavily dependent on both evolutionary model assumptions as well as a clearly defined “gap” between intra- and interspecies variation. Such distance measures fail to measure classification uncertainty or to indicate how much of the barcode is necessary for classification. We propose a sequential naïve Bayes classifier for species classification to address these limitations. The proposed method is shown to provide accurate species-level classification on real and simulated data. The method proposed here quantifies the uncertainty of each classification and addresses how much of the barcode is necessary

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California\u27s Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios

Radar signal categorization using a neural network

Neural networks were used to analyze a complex simulated radar environment which contains noisy radar pulses generated by many different emitters. The neural network used is an energy minimizing network (the BSB model) which forms energy minima - attractors in the network dynamical system - based on learned input data. The system first determines how many emitters are present (the deinterleaving problem). Pulses from individual simulated emitters give rise to separate stable attractors in the network. Once individual emitters are characterized, it is possible to make tentative identifications of them based on their observed parameters. As a test of this idea, a neural network was used to form a small data base that potentially could make emitter identifications

Rapid Effective Trace-Back Capability Value in Reducing the Cost of a Foot and Mouth Disease Event

This study evaluates how the availability of animal tracing affects the cost of a hypothetical Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the Texas High Plains using alternative tracing scenarios. To accomplish this objective, the AusSpread epidemic disease spread model (Ward et al., 2006) is used to simulate a High Plains FMD outbreak under different animal tracing possibilities. A simple economic costing module (Elbakidze, 2008) is used to determine the savings in terms of animal disease mitigation costs from rapid, effective trace-back. The savings from increased traceability are then be compared to the cost of a functional National Animal Identification System (NAIS). Initial results indicate that rapid, effective tracing reduces the overall cost of disease outbreaks and that the benefits per animal in terms of reduced cost of an outbreak more than outweigh the annualized cost per animal of implementing a NAIS. A value of time related to controlling an outbreak is estimated to have increased benefits from an identification system that incorporates a rapid response capability. We also find the level of benefits vary depending on the location of initial infection and whether or not welfare slaughter occurs.Traceability, Foot and Mouth Disease, Economics, Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries,