Istraživanje primjene metoda upravljanja financijskim rizicima u hrvatskim poduzećima - anketa na uzorku poduzeća

The aim of the research was to get information on usage of financial risk protection instruments in Croatian large and medium-sized companies, as well as to recognize existence of possible differences among characteristics of the companies that use and that do not use them. Survey research based on a telephone interview with financial or accounting managers from a stratified random sample of 101 Croatian companies in October and November 2004 was carried out. The stratification criterion was «number of employees». One stratum contained medium-sized companies that were defined as those with 51-250 employees, and the other one included companies with more than 250 employees. Approximately equal allocation with 50 large and 51 medium-sized enterprises from each of respective strata was applied. Methods of estimation used took into account the procedure of random sampling of units, so that margin of errors could be calculated. Considering normal approximation, in each strata the research result for the proportion, with 95% confidence level and coefficient of confidence z = 1.96, is within margin of error of maximum +/- 14,2%. The results of the survey research based on random sample of 101 Croatian companies shown that there is no statistically significant dependence between the firms’ size and usage of risk protection, so planned stratification was not stressed in further analysis. The research results were compared to the results of similar surveys from Europe and America. The common conclusions in all these studies were that financial managers are aware of the danger arisen from financial and other risks, but the financial policy in most cases is not precisely defined. Even if this policy is defined, it is formal and reactive, and very seldom proactive. Control functions and risk management seem to be quite centralized business functions in most of surveyed companies. There is a lack of systematic standardized «financial risk manager» function, and a well organized financial department seems to be an exception. According to the survey, financial risk protection instruments were used by two fifth of companies from the sample, and the same proportion of them wants to have additional education a about these instruments. Only one fifth of companies covered by the survey have got a kind of developed protection policy. The most often enterprises use financial risk protection services from banks, and in most cases they are satisfied or vary satisfied with these services. The surveyed enterprises worry the most about liquidity risks and currency risks, and interest rate risk is not the subject of such great concerns. This paper deals in details about various haracteristics (such as company size, activity, region, and size of market) of enterprises that are threatened to quite serious extent with various types of financial risks. Interviewees from 41 companies that use financial risk protection methods mentioned that the most often used protection instruments against liquidity risk were: cash flow investment analysis (70% out of 41), and analysis of assets, liabilities and sources (also 70%). Against currency risk surveyed companies most often use: currency futures (34%), selling prices policy (29%) and currency forward (27%). Against interest rate risk the most often applied protection instruments were: interest rate futures (12%) and interest rate management at the money market (10%). The reasons for not using the protection instruments are insufficient knowledge about them, prevailed perception that they are not efficient and that are too expensive. Contribution of this study comes out of the testing of hypothesis about dependence between characteristics of Croatian companies and the usage of financial risk protection instruments. The survey results show that the companies that are using these instruments are more often registered as share holding companies than as limited, they have significantly greater average yearly revenue, and their revenue is increasing more often according to previous year than in companies that are not using protection instruments. Also, companies using controlling approach tend to apply protection instruments in their business. Further, these companies very often use bank services to help them in protection. Last, but not the least, financial managers in companies with active financial protection policy have got higher education than in those companies that are not actively protecting themselves. Usage of financial risk protection instruments contributes the business success of a company. Only continuous and proactive informing about financial position of a company concerning its exposure to total risk may insure survival, keeping market position, and progress of a Croatian company in recognized turbulent environment of domestic transformations, market globalization, and the pressure for accepting rules of a game of international competitiveness. Finally, in the future the researchers and authors of the study paper plan to make a sample survey research based on deeper stratification of population of Croatian businesses, so to include three sizes of companies, concerning number of employees, and to include a kind of financial measure of company’s size, e.g. the factor of yearly revenue, as well, and than it would be possible to make more detailed analysis concerning different companies' features and usage of financial risk management instruments in Croatia.instrumenti upravljanja financijskim rizicima, anketno istraživanje, hi kvadrat-test neovisnosti; Levenov test jednakosti varijanci populacija, t-test razlike aritmetičkih sredina

Multinomna logistička regresija u kreditnom skoringu

Jedna od metoda kvantitativne kreditne analize je logistička regresija kojom se klijent svrštava u jednu od dvije kategorije, u dobre ili loše. Podaci o srednjim klijentima, iako postoje u bazi klijenata svake banke, uglavnom su isključeni u procesu kreditnog skoringa. Mnoge studije do sada nisu pokazale značajnost upotrebe srednjih klijenata pri kreiranju kredit skoring modela, uglavnom zbog toga sto je slabija granica među definicijama dobrih, srednjih i loših, te su konačne procjene manje točne od procjena koje bi dao logistički model u kojem su srednji izostavljeni. U ovom radu ispitat ćemo značajnost upotrebe srednjih na bazi klijenata jedne banke, na način da ćemo kreirati multinomni logistički model u kojem ovisna varijabla ima tri kategorije, dobre, srednje i loše, te binomni model samo s dobrim i lošim klijentima. Te ćemo usporediti rezultate.One of quantitative credit analysis methods is logistic regression where the client is classified into the one of two categories, good or bad. Although there are data of poor clients in the database of any bank. They are generally excluded in the process of credit scoring. Many studies so far haven’t shown the importance of using poor clients in credit scoring model, mainly because the lower boundary between definitions of good, poor and bad, so the final estimates are less accurate than estimates obtained by logistic model in which poor are omitted. In this article we will examine the significance of use poor clients of a bank, in a way that will create a multinomial logistic model in which the dependent variable has three categories, good, poor and bad, and the binomial model only with good and bad customers. Than the results will be compared

Multinomna logistička regresija u kreditnom skoringu

Jedna od metoda kvantitativne kreditne analize je logistička regresija kojom se klijent svrštava u jednu od dvije kategorije, u dobre ili loše. Podaci o srednjim klijentima, iako postoje u bazi klijenata svake banke, uglavnom su isključeni u procesu kreditnog skoringa. Mnoge studije do sada nisu pokazale značajnost upotrebe srednjih klijenata pri kreiranju kredit skoring modela, uglavnom zbog toga sto je slabija granica među definicijama dobrih, srednjih i loših, te su konačne procjene manje točne od procjena koje bi dao logistički model u kojem su srednji izostavljeni. U ovom radu ispitat ćemo značajnost upotrebe srednjih na bazi klijenata jedne banke, na način da ćemo kreirati multinomni logistički model u kojem ovisna varijabla ima tri kategorije, dobre, srednje i loše, te binomni model samo s dobrim i lošim klijentima. Te ćemo usporediti rezultate.One of quantitative credit analysis methods is logistic regression where the client is classified into the one of two categories, good or bad. Although there are data of poor clients in the database of any bank. They are generally excluded in the process of credit scoring. Many studies so far haven’t shown the importance of using poor clients in credit scoring model, mainly because the lower boundary between definitions of good, poor and bad, so the final estimates are less accurate than estimates obtained by logistic model in which poor are omitted. In this article we will examine the significance of use poor clients of a bank, in a way that will create a multinomial logistic model in which the dependent variable has three categories, good, poor and bad, and the binomial model only with good and bad customers. Than the results will be compared

Institucionalno ustrojstvo upravljanja javnim dugom

Izgrađena institucionalna infrastruktura temelj je za učinkovito upravljanje javnim dugim. U radu se ukazuje na značaj i novu ulogu upravljanja javnim dugom te se navode ciljevi upravljanja javnim dugom. Odgovarajućim regulatornim okvirom propisana su ograničenja i ovlaštenja za zaduživanje i izdavanje jamstava. Ključnu ulogu za upravljanje javnim dugom ima Ured za upravljanje dugom (UUD) koji može biti ustrojen unutar Ministarstva financija, središnje banke ili osnovan kao izdvojena agencija za upravljanje javnim dugom. Rad prikazuje institucionalni, organizacijski i funkcionalni aspekt upravljanja javnim dugom

Ampelografic evaluation of autochothonous Dalmatian grapevine cultivars (Vitis vinifera L.)

Dalmacija je područje bogato autohtonim sortama vinove loze, koje i danas čine značajan udio u sortimentu. Međutim, svega ih je nekoliko u širem uzgoju, a ostale su tek lokalno važne ili se nalaze u vrlo malom broju, kao prateće u mješovitim, uglavnom starijim nasadima. Cilj ovog istraživanja je provesti sveobuhvatnu ampelografsku evaluaciju na 43 autohtone dalmatinske sorte ex-situ, u dvije kolekcije (Split i Zagreb) te temeljem dobivenih rezultata procijeniti njihovu prikladnost za daljnju znanstvenu i gospodarsku eksploataciju. Evaluacija sorata provela se u tri uzastopne vinogradarske godine (2011., 2012., 2013.) te je obuhvatila ampelografska opažanja, ampelometrijska mjerenja i kemijske analize važnih grupa spojeva u moštu. Pregledom literaturnih izvora utvrđen je povijesni tijek uzgoja istraživanih sorata na području Dalmacije kao i njihova današanja rasprostranjenost na istom području. Primjenom ampelografskih deskriptora utvrđene su osnovne morfološke karakteristike istraživanih autohtonih dalmatinskih sorata te je primjenom klaster analize na izabranim morfološkim OIVdeskriptorima došlo je do grupiranja sorata temeljem nijihove sličnosti. U istraživanju su analizirane glavne uvometrijske i filometrijske karakteristike sorata, kao i mehanički pokazatelji istraživanih sorata pri čemu su izdvojene one karakteristike koje najviše doprinose razlikama između sorata. Isto tako, mjereni su i najvažniji pokazatelji kvalitete mošta istraživanih sorata (sadržaj šećera u moštu, titracijska kiselost mošta, sadržaj pojedinačnih organskih kiselina u moštu). Primjenom multivarijatnih analiza utvrđene su značajne razlike između sorata s obzirom na pojedinačne polifenolne i aromatske spojeve, te su izdvojeni spojevi koji najviše doprinose razlikama između sorata. Na temelju svih provedenih istraživanja izdvojene su neke zapostavljene, ali vrijedne sorte koje zaslužuju uvođenje u širu vinogradarsku proizvodnju.To this day, Dalmatia is an area rich in autochotonous cultivars of grapevine which make a significant share in the overall sortiment. Nevertheless, only couple of these are widely cultivated making the other cultivars either bound to local context or, in smaller numbers, accompanying mixed, mostly older, vineyards. The goal of this research was to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of 43 autochotonous cultivars ex-situ, in two collections (Split and Zagreb), and, based on the results, estimate their suitability for further scientific and economic exploatiation. Evaluation of the cultivars was carried out throughout three years in a row (2011, 2012 and 2013) and it included ampelographic observations, ampelometric measurements and chemical analysis of important groups compounds in most. Overview of literature confirmed a history of cultivation of researched cultivars in Dalmatia area along with their distribution in present-day. By using ampelographic descriptors, basic morphological charasteristics of the researched cultivars were determined, along with the grouping of cultivars in distinct clusters by using a cluster analysis on chosen morphological OIV-descriptors. Main uvometric and phyllometric characteristics of cultivars were analized along with mechanical indicators of the researched cultivars. Based on these analysis', characteristics which contributed the most to differences between cultivars were singled out. In addition, the most significant quality indicators of must were measured in cultivars (content of sugar in most, titratable acidity of most, content of the individual organic acids in must). Morphological variability was determined by using the chosen morphologic descriptors among the cultivars. Also, significant differences among cultivars were determined by using the multivariant analysis on the individual poliphenolic and aromatic compounds singling out the compounds which contributed the most to differences between cultivars. Based on the conducted research, some cultivars are neglected, but valuable cultivars worth introducing into a wider vinegrowing production

Ampelografic evaluation of autochothonous Dalmatian grapevine cultivars (Vitis vinifera L.)

Dalmacija je područje bogato autohtonim sortama vinove loze, koje i danas čine značajan udio u sortimentu. Međutim, svega ih je nekoliko u širem uzgoju, a ostale su tek lokalno važne ili se nalaze u vrlo malom broju, kao prateće u mješovitim, uglavnom starijim nasadima. Cilj ovog istraživanja je provesti sveobuhvatnu ampelografsku evaluaciju na 43 autohtone dalmatinske sorte ex-situ, u dvije kolekcije (Split i Zagreb) te temeljem dobivenih rezultata procijeniti njihovu prikladnost za daljnju znanstvenu i gospodarsku eksploataciju. Evaluacija sorata provela se u tri uzastopne vinogradarske godine (2011., 2012., 2013.) te je obuhvatila ampelografska opažanja, ampelometrijska mjerenja i kemijske analize važnih grupa spojeva u moštu. Pregledom literaturnih izvora utvrđen je povijesni tijek uzgoja istraživanih sorata na području Dalmacije kao i njihova današanja rasprostranjenost na istom području. Primjenom ampelografskih deskriptora utvrđene su osnovne morfološke karakteristike istraživanih autohtonih dalmatinskih sorata te je primjenom klaster analize na izabranim morfološkim OIVdeskriptorima došlo je do grupiranja sorata temeljem nijihove sličnosti. U istraživanju su analizirane glavne uvometrijske i filometrijske karakteristike sorata, kao i mehanički pokazatelji istraživanih sorata pri čemu su izdvojene one karakteristike koje najviše doprinose razlikama između sorata. Isto tako, mjereni su i najvažniji pokazatelji kvalitete mošta istraživanih sorata (sadržaj šećera u moštu, titracijska kiselost mošta, sadržaj pojedinačnih organskih kiselina u moštu). Primjenom multivarijatnih analiza utvrđene su značajne razlike između sorata s obzirom na pojedinačne polifenolne i aromatske spojeve, te su izdvojeni spojevi koji najviše doprinose razlikama između sorata. Na temelju svih provedenih istraživanja izdvojene su neke zapostavljene, ali vrijedne sorte koje zaslužuju uvođenje u širu vinogradarsku proizvodnju.To this day, Dalmatia is an area rich in autochotonous cultivars of grapevine which make a significant share in the overall sortiment. Nevertheless, only couple of these are widely cultivated making the other cultivars either bound to local context or, in smaller numbers, accompanying mixed, mostly older, vineyards. The goal of this research was to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of 43 autochotonous cultivars ex-situ, in two collections (Split and Zagreb), and, based on the results, estimate their suitability for further scientific and economic exploatiation. Evaluation of the cultivars was carried out throughout three years in a row (2011, 2012 and 2013) and it included ampelographic observations, ampelometric measurements and chemical analysis of important groups compounds in most. Overview of literature confirmed a history of cultivation of researched cultivars in Dalmatia area along with their distribution in present-day. By using ampelographic descriptors, basic morphological charasteristics of the researched cultivars were determined, along with the grouping of cultivars in distinct clusters by using a cluster analysis on chosen morphological OIV-descriptors. Main uvometric and phyllometric characteristics of cultivars were analized along with mechanical indicators of the researched cultivars. Based on these analysis', characteristics which contributed the most to differences between cultivars were singled out. In addition, the most significant quality indicators of must were measured in cultivars (content of sugar in most, titratable acidity of most, content of the individual organic acids in must). Morphological variability was determined by using the chosen morphologic descriptors among the cultivars. Also, significant differences among cultivars were determined by using the multivariant analysis on the individual poliphenolic and aromatic compounds singling out the compounds which contributed the most to differences between cultivars. Based on the conducted research, some cultivars are neglected, but valuable cultivars worth introducing into a wider vinegrowing production

Ampelografic evaluation of autochothonous Dalmatian grapevine cultivars (Vitis vinifera L.)

Dalmacija je područje bogato autohtonim sortama vinove loze, koje i danas čine značajan udio u sortimentu. Međutim, svega ih je nekoliko u širem uzgoju, a ostale su tek lokalno važne ili se nalaze u vrlo malom broju, kao prateće u mješovitim, uglavnom starijim nasadima. Cilj ovog istraživanja je provesti sveobuhvatnu ampelografsku evaluaciju na 43 autohtone dalmatinske sorte ex-situ, u dvije kolekcije (Split i Zagreb) te temeljem dobivenih rezultata procijeniti njihovu prikladnost za daljnju znanstvenu i gospodarsku eksploataciju. Evaluacija sorata provela se u tri uzastopne vinogradarske godine (2011., 2012., 2013.) te je obuhvatila ampelografska opažanja, ampelometrijska mjerenja i kemijske analize važnih grupa spojeva u moštu. Pregledom literaturnih izvora utvrđen je povijesni tijek uzgoja istraživanih sorata na području Dalmacije kao i njihova današanja rasprostranjenost na istom području. Primjenom ampelografskih deskriptora utvrđene su osnovne morfološke karakteristike istraživanih autohtonih dalmatinskih sorata te je primjenom klaster analize na izabranim morfološkim OIVdeskriptorima došlo je do grupiranja sorata temeljem nijihove sličnosti. U istraživanju su analizirane glavne uvometrijske i filometrijske karakteristike sorata, kao i mehanički pokazatelji istraživanih sorata pri čemu su izdvojene one karakteristike koje najviše doprinose razlikama između sorata. Isto tako, mjereni su i najvažniji pokazatelji kvalitete mošta istraživanih sorata (sadržaj šećera u moštu, titracijska kiselost mošta, sadržaj pojedinačnih organskih kiselina u moštu). Primjenom multivarijatnih analiza utvrđene su značajne razlike između sorata s obzirom na pojedinačne polifenolne i aromatske spojeve, te su izdvojeni spojevi koji najviše doprinose razlikama između sorata. Na temelju svih provedenih istraživanja izdvojene su neke zapostavljene, ali vrijedne sorte koje zaslužuju uvođenje u širu vinogradarsku proizvodnju.To this day, Dalmatia is an area rich in autochotonous cultivars of grapevine which make a significant share in the overall sortiment. Nevertheless, only couple of these are widely cultivated making the other cultivars either bound to local context or, in smaller numbers, accompanying mixed, mostly older, vineyards. The goal of this research was to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of 43 autochotonous cultivars ex-situ, in two collections (Split and Zagreb), and, based on the results, estimate their suitability for further scientific and economic exploatiation. Evaluation of the cultivars was carried out throughout three years in a row (2011, 2012 and 2013) and it included ampelographic observations, ampelometric measurements and chemical analysis of important groups compounds in most. Overview of literature confirmed a history of cultivation of researched cultivars in Dalmatia area along with their distribution in present-day. By using ampelographic descriptors, basic morphological charasteristics of the researched cultivars were determined, along with the grouping of cultivars in distinct clusters by using a cluster analysis on chosen morphological OIV-descriptors. Main uvometric and phyllometric characteristics of cultivars were analized along with mechanical indicators of the researched cultivars. Based on these analysis', characteristics which contributed the most to differences between cultivars were singled out. In addition, the most significant quality indicators of must were measured in cultivars (content of sugar in most, titratable acidity of most, content of the individual organic acids in must). Morphological variability was determined by using the chosen morphologic descriptors among the cultivars. Also, significant differences among cultivars were determined by using the multivariant analysis on the individual poliphenolic and aromatic compounds singling out the compounds which contributed the most to differences between cultivars. Based on the conducted research, some cultivars are neglected, but valuable cultivars worth introducing into a wider vinegrowing production

Parental administration of antipyretics to children with upper respiratory tract infections without consultation with a physician

Aim To evaluate the administration of antipyretics to children with upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) by their parents or guardians without consultation with physicians, and compare epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients who received antipyretics and of untreated patients. Methods A prospective observational study was performed in three pediatric clinics in Zagreb, Croatia, from March to June 2002. A total of 171 children aged from 2 to 14 years with symptoms and signs of URTI lasting more than 2 days and fever above 38°C lasting more than 2 days were included in the study. Data were collected on the usage of antipyretics, patients’ demographic and epidemiological characteristics, and clinical signs and symptoms. Results Antipyretics, predominantly paracetamol, were used in 29.8% of patients. Their usage was less frequent in children attending day-care centers (49% of treated and 70% of untreated children, P = 0.014) and in children with reiterated URTIs (33.3% of treated and 55.8% of untreated children, P = 0.008). However, it was more frequent in children with recent URTIs in the family (33.3% of treated and 7.5% of untreated children, P < 0.001). Overall, most clinical signs and symptoms of URTI were notably less pronounced in patients treated with antipyretics. Conclusions Antipyretics use correlated with less pronounced clinical signs and symptoms of infection, which indicates their anti-inflammatory activity, but also with negative effects such as lethargy. It is necessary to educate parents on the positive and negative aspects of antipyretics use and on the optimal choice of an antipyretic drug

Implementation Effects of the European System of Accounts 2010 on the Government Finance Statistics in Croatia

Primjena novoga metodološkog okvira u Hrvatskoj počela je u rujnu 2014., što se znatno odrazilo na statističke podatke koji odražavaju stanje javnih financija. Cilj je ovog rada utvrditi najvažnije promjene koje se odnose na obuhvat opće države, odnosno sektorsku klasifikaciju pojedinih institucijskih jedinica unutar javnoga sektora te kvantificirati utjecaj primjene nove metodologije na fiskalnu poziciju Republike Hrvatske od 2009. do 2015. Brojčane vrijednosti odstupanja fiskalnih pokazatelja utvrđuju se usporedbom podataka koji su dostavljeni Europskoj komisiji prema metodologiji ESA 95 te podataka koji su dostavljeni nakon implementacije metodologije ESA 2010. Usporedba metodoloških okvira i podataka upućuje na znatna odstupanja koja su rezultirala povećanjem iznosa javnoga duga, ali je primjena nove metodologije istodobno omogućila bolji uvid u glavne izvore fiskalnih rizika te pružila precizniju sliku financijskog položaja javnoga sektora. Poboljšanje fiskalne pozicije ostvareno povećanjem proračunskih prihoda, kontrolom proračunskih rashoda i gospodarskim rastom omogućilo je Hrvatskoj izlazak iz postupka u slučaju prekomjernoga deficita.As a member state of the European Union, Croatia is committed to delivering the excessive deficit procedure reports to the European Commission according to the European system of national and regional accounts (ESA 2010) methodology. The implementation of the new methodological framework in September 2014 had a significant effect on government finance data in Croatia. The ESA 2010 methodology is used to measure the government and total economic activity in a country in order to monitor macroeconomic stability and achieve comparability of data with other member states. The aim of this paper is to establish the most significant changes in the scope of the general government and sector classifications of institutional units within the public sector, as well as to quantify the effects of the new methodology implementation on the fiscal position of Croatia between 2009 and 2015. Fiscal indicator deviations are based on the comparative analysis of data pre-approved by Eurostat and provided to the European Commission according to ESA 95 and data delivered after the implementation of the ESA 2010 methodology. A comparison of the methodological frameworks and data indicates significant deviations resulting in increased relative and absolute values of the general government debt, while the implementation of the new methodological framework provides better insight into key fiscal risks and the public sector’s financial position. The reclassification of general government sector units contributed substantially to the increase in public debt; affecting in particular Croatian Motorways, Motorway Rijeka-Zagreb, and the Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The general government budget deficit was also under the strong influence of the statistical treatment of social contribution transfers from the second to the first pension pillar. Furthermore, frequent activation of government guarantees and the statistical treatment of certain public-private partnerships and concessions also added to the public debt. Apart from including the liabilities of state-owned enterprises, the general government deficit was further affected by unfavourable economic conditions. Croatia managed to exit the excessive deficit procedure after three years following an improvement in her fiscal position due to an increase in government revenues, control of government expenditures and economic growth