Data-driven weights and restrictions in the construction of composite indicators

Composite indicators are increasingly recognized as a useful tool in policy analysis and public communication. However, if poorly constructed, they can send misleading policy messages. Perhaps the most difficult aspect of constructing a composite indicator is choosing weights for the components. The categorization of Croatian territorial units for development policy is based on the value of the composite indicator called the development index. The main goal of this paper is to propose an empirical approach for weight selection. In order to generate the set of non-subjective weights, principal component analysis and linear programming methods have been applied. An application of data envelopment analysis to the field of composite indicators, known as the Benefit-of-the-Doubt approach, has been demonstrated subject to proportional sub-indicator share restrictions. Additionally, the Monte Carlo simulation of weights was conducted, and confidence intervals for the values of the development index were estimated. Owing to the fact that the examined weighting schemes have resulted in the different categorization of territorial units, use of unit-specific weights and incorporating uncertainty in the construction of a composite indicator looks promising for further work

What can Google Tell us about Bitcoin Trading Volume in Croatia? Evidence from the Online Marketplace Localbitcoins

Timely economic statistics is crucial for effective decision making. However, most of them are released with a lag. Thus, "nowcasting" has become widely popular in economics, and web search volume histories are already used to make predictions in various fields including IT, communications, medicine, health, business and economics. This article seeks to explore the potential of incorporating internet search data, in particular Google Trends data, in autoregressive models used to predict the volume of Bitcoin trading. Toda and Yamamoto procedure was applied in order to examine causality between Google search data and Bitcoin trading volume on the online marketplace LocalBitcoins, for the area of the Republic of Croatia. The results showed that internet search data can be useful for forecasting Bitcoin trading volume, since Google searches for the term “bitcoin” Granger causes Bitcoin trading volume in the online marketplace LocalBitcoins

Extended RFM logit model for churn prediction in the mobile gaming market

As markets are becoming increasingly saturated, many businesses are shifting their focus to customer retention. In their need to understand and predict future customer behavior, businesses across sectors are adopting data-driven business intelligence to deal with churn prediction. A good example of this approach to retention management is the mobile game industry. This business sector usually relies on a considerable amount of behavioral telemetry data that allows them to understand how users interact with games. This high-resolution information enables game companies to develop and adopt accurate models for detecting customers with a high attrition propensity. This paper focuses on building a churn prediction model for the mobile gaming market by utilizing logistic regression analysis in the extended recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) framework. The model relies on a large set of raw telemetry data that was transformed into interpretable game-independent features. Robust statistical measures and dominance analysis were applied in order to assess feature importance. Established features are used to develop a logistic model for churn prediction and to classify potential churners in a population of users, regardless of their lifetime

The Foundation for Open Component Analysis: A System of Systems Hyper Framework Model

The interoperability and integration of heterogeneous systems, with a high degree of autonomy and time-dependent dynamic configuration over multilevel and multidimensional feature space, raise the problem configurations complexity. Due to the emergent nature of a large collection of locally interacting components, the properties and the behavior of a collection may not be fully understood or predicted even the full knowledge of its constituents is available. The simplification is contemporary addressed through either dimensional reduction methods, like Principal Component Analysis (PCA), or overall ontology managing through Physics of Open Systems (POS) paradigm. The question is: Is it possible to cope with the complexity by integrating dimension reduction steps with basic POS concepts on the Large Data Objects (LDOs) holding the structure and behavior of the complex system. The intended mission of this chapter is to formulate a starting System of Systems (SoS) based configurable hyper framework model that may be dynamically improved to better suit the static structure and dynamic behavior of complex SoS configurations. That is the reason why the reflexive integration of POS and different dimensional reduction methods, through an interoperability framework, have been proposed as the main contribution of this research chapter

EFIKASNOST MMF-ovih PROGRAMA ZA PREMOŠĆIVANJE FINANCIJSKE KRIZE U ODABRANIM ZEMLJAMA SREDNJE I ISTOČNE EUROPE : diplomski rad

Svjetska financijska i ekonomska kriza iz 2008. god. je snažno pogodila zemlje Srednje i Istočne Europe te je nekolicina bila primorana zatražiti MMF-ovu pomoć. Kreirani su programi čija je efikasnost predmet analize ovog rada s ciljem doprinosa formiranju univerzalnog stava o MMF-u kao instituciji. Empirijsko istraživanje nije potvrdilo postojanje statistički značajne razlike u promjenama varijabli između zemalja koje su bile korisnice zajmova i koje su krizne godine prebrodile bez MMF-ovih programa. Nadalje, postoji niz intervencija Fonda koji mogu poslužiti kao primjer pogrešnog tretmana određene krizne situacije, ali postoje i primjeri gdje su MMF-ovi programi bili krucijalni za transformaciju i oporavak pojedinih gospodarstava. Većina stručnjaka se slaže da su potrebne reforme mehanizma pozajmljivanja, ali i same organizacije Fonda. Potrebno je ispraviti manjkavosti na koje brojni kritičari upozoravaju te modernizirati instituciju kako bi adekvatno odražavala trenutnu svjetsku ekonomsku scenu i bila spremna efikasno odgovoriti na buduće izazove.Countries of Central and Eastern Europe were hit hard by the global financial and economic crisis of 2008, and a few were forced to seek IMF assistance. A number of programs were created whose effectiveness is being analyzed in this thesis with the purpose of contributing to the formation of a universal attitude towards IMF as an institution. Empirical research has not confirmed the existence of statistically significant difference in changes of variables between countries that were beneficiaries of loans and those who overcame the crisis without IMF. Furthermore, there are number of IMF interventions which may serve as an example of the wrong treatment of a particular crisis situation, but there are also examples where IMF programs were crucial to the transformation and recovery of certain economies. Most experts agree that the mechanism of borrowing needs to be reformed, as well as the organization itself. It is necessary to correct the shortcomings that many critics point out and to modernize the institution so that it is able to adequately reflect the current global economic scene ant to effectively respond to future challenges

EFIKASNOST MMF-ovih PROGRAMA ZA PREMOŠĆIVANJE FINANCIJSKE KRIZE U ODABRANIM ZEMLJAMA SREDNJE I ISTOČNE EUROPE : diplomski rad

Svjetska financijska i ekonomska kriza iz 2008. god. je snažno pogodila zemlje Srednje i Istočne Europe te je nekolicina bila primorana zatražiti MMF-ovu pomoć. Kreirani su programi čija je efikasnost predmet analize ovog rada s ciljem doprinosa formiranju univerzalnog stava o MMF-u kao instituciji. Empirijsko istraživanje nije potvrdilo postojanje statistički značajne razlike u promjenama varijabli između zemalja koje su bile korisnice zajmova i koje su krizne godine prebrodile bez MMF-ovih programa. Nadalje, postoji niz intervencija Fonda koji mogu poslužiti kao primjer pogrešnog tretmana određene krizne situacije, ali postoje i primjeri gdje su MMF-ovi programi bili krucijalni za transformaciju i oporavak pojedinih gospodarstava. Većina stručnjaka se slaže da su potrebne reforme mehanizma pozajmljivanja, ali i same organizacije Fonda. Potrebno je ispraviti manjkavosti na koje brojni kritičari upozoravaju te modernizirati instituciju kako bi adekvatno odražavala trenutnu svjetsku ekonomsku scenu i bila spremna efikasno odgovoriti na buduće izazove.Countries of Central and Eastern Europe were hit hard by the global financial and economic crisis of 2008, and a few were forced to seek IMF assistance. A number of programs were created whose effectiveness is being analyzed in this thesis with the purpose of contributing to the formation of a universal attitude towards IMF as an institution. Empirical research has not confirmed the existence of statistically significant difference in changes of variables between countries that were beneficiaries of loans and those who overcame the crisis without IMF. Furthermore, there are number of IMF interventions which may serve as an example of the wrong treatment of a particular crisis situation, but there are also examples where IMF programs were crucial to the transformation and recovery of certain economies. Most experts agree that the mechanism of borrowing needs to be reformed, as well as the organization itself. It is necessary to correct the shortcomings that many critics point out and to modernize the institution so that it is able to adequately reflect the current global economic scene ant to effectively respond to future challenges

Fly-through animation as a way of modern presentation in civil engineering and architecture

U ovom radu dat je pregled korišćenja Fly Through animacije, posebno u građevinarstvu i arhitekturi. Prikazana su tri istorijski značajna objekta - Gimnazija 'Jovan Jovanović Zmaj', Departman za arhitekturu i urbanizam i Gradska kuća u Novom Sadu - na čijim modelima su urađene animacije. Takođe, prikazane su animacije nekoliko mostova različitih konstrukcija. Predstavljena je i animacija karaktera koja se može koristiti za realističniji prikaz objekata u građevinarstvu i arhitekturi. Ovaj rad takođe pruža opis modelovanja i animacije 3D karaktera. Postupak izrade ovih animacija opisan je detaljno, redom - kako su objekti i animacije napravljeni.This article describes application of Fly-Through animation, especially in civil engineering and architecture. Three historically significant buildings have been modeled and animated: Grammar School Jovan Jovanovic Zmaj, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning and a City Hall in Novi Sad. Furthermore, animations of couple bridges with different constructions are shown. In addition, this paper presents a description of the modeling procedure and animation of 3D characters. Development process of these models and animations are described in details, step by step

The open conceptual model for parametric analysis and evaluation of urban blocks

U sklopu disertacije je formulisan otvoreni konceptualni model za parametarsku analizu i valorizaciju urbanih blokova. Formulisana je osnovna arhitektura za podršku orkestraciji različitih alata namenjenih arhitektonskom dizajnu i urbanističkom planiranju. Eksperimentalna provera formulisanog modela obavljena je uz oslonac na originalni pristup interoperabilnosti i orkestraciji odabranog skupa komercijalno dostupnih programskih proizvoda namenjenih modelovanju i simulaciji parametara koji imaju direktan uticaj na kvalitet stanovanja u sklopu urbanih blokova različite morfologije.The open conceptual model for parametric analysis and evaluation of urban block is presented in the thesis. The basic architecture that supports the orchestration of different architectural design and urban planning software tools is formulated. The experimental evaluation of formulated model is performed via original approach to interoperability and orchestration of the selected set of commercially available software tools for modeling and simulation of the parameters that have direct impac different urban block morphology models

Multivariate Classification of Local and Regional Government Units According to Socio-Economic Development

Problem nejednakoga regionalnog razvoja jedan je od ključnih problema hrvatske ekonomske politike. Zakonom o regionalnom razvoju Republike Hrvatske uređeno je ocjenjivanje i razvrstavanje jedinica lokalne i regionalne samouprave prema razvijenosti, koja se temelji na indeksu razvijenosti. Ova univarijatna klasifikacija počiva na vrijednosti samo jedne varijable, koja je linearna kombinacija standardiziranih vrijednosti pokazatelja, što uzrokuje gubitak informacija. Cilj je ovoga rada prikazati alternativni pristup ocjenjivanju i kategorizaciji teritorijalnih jedinica prema socioekonomskoj razvijenosti na temelju multivarijatne analize. U radu je predočena klasifikacija jedinica lokalne i regionalne samouprave dobivena primjenom multivarijatnih metoda na temelju pet socioekonomskih pokazatelja. Poseban naglasak stavljen je na područja koja zaostaju u razvoju. Uočeni su i otklonjeni problemi multikolinearnosti i problemi postojanja izdvojenica koji su prisutni u klasifikaciji na temelju indeksa razvijenosti. Rezultati analiza upućuju na postojanje velikih razlika u regionalnoj razvijenosti. Gotovo sve metode klasterske analize rezultiraju posebnim klasterom u kojem su izdvojene jedinice koje imaju izražen problem depopulacije, ali ne i ekonomske nerazvijenosti, što omogućuje da se jedinice obuhvate posebnim mjerama poticanja demografskoga razvitka.One of the key problems of economic policy of the Republic of Croatia is the problem of uneven regional development. The Law on regional development of the Republic of Croatia regulates the evaluation and classification of local and regional government units. The classification is based on the level of development as measured by the development index. This univariate classification relies on the value of a single variable that is a linear combination of the standardized values of indicators, and this causes a loss of information. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate an alternative approach to the evaluation and socio-economic classification of territorial units based on multivariate analysis. The local and regional government units are evaluated using the multivariate methods based on five socio-economic indicators. Special emphasis is placed on undeveloped regions. In the analysis of the results, problems of multicolinearity and outlier existence, which exist in the classification based on development index, are encountered and eliminated. The results confirm high disparities in regional development. Almost all cluster methods result in the formation of a separate cluster, which could not have been foreseen from the classification based on the development index. Such a cluster contains local and regional units that are not highly undeveloped but have a large depopulation problem. Consequently, units that need to be subjected to a specific demographic development program can be indicated

Fly-through animation as a way of modern presentation in civil engineering and architecture

U ovom radu dat je pregled korišćenja Fly Through animacije, posebno u građevinarstvu i arhitekturi. Prikazana su tri istorijski značajna objekta - Gimnazija 'Jovan Jovanović Zmaj', Departman za arhitekturu i urbanizam i Gradska kuća u Novom Sadu - na čijim modelima su urađene animacije. Takođe, prikazane su animacije nekoliko mostova različitih konstrukcija. Predstavljena je i animacija karaktera koja se može koristiti za realističniji prikaz objekata u građevinarstvu i arhitekturi. Ovaj rad takođe pruža opis modelovanja i animacije 3D karaktera. Postupak izrade ovih animacija opisan je detaljno, redom - kako su objekti i animacije napravljeni.This article describes application of Fly-Through animation, especially in civil engineering and architecture. Three historically significant buildings have been modeled and animated: Grammar School Jovan Jovanovic Zmaj, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning and a City Hall in Novi Sad. Furthermore, animations of couple bridges with different constructions are shown. In addition, this paper presents a description of the modeling procedure and animation of 3D characters. Development process of these models and animations are described in details, step by step