A personalised screening strategy for diabetic retinopathy:a cost-effectiveness perspective

Aims/hypothesis: In this study we examined the cost-effectiveness of three different screening strategies for diabetic retinopathy: using a personalised adaptive model, annual screening (fixed intervals), and the current Dutch guideline (stratified based on previous retinopathy grade). Methods: For each individual, optimal diabetic retinopathy screening intervals were determined, using a validated risk prediction model. Observational data (1998–2017) from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort of people with type 2 diabetes were used (n = 5514). The missing values of retinopathy grades were imputed using two scenarios of slow and fast sight-threatening retinopathy (STR) progression. By comparing the model-based screening intervals to observed time to develop STR, the number of delayed STR diagnoses was determined. Costs were calculated using the healthcare perspective and the societal perspective. Finally, outcomes and costs were compared for the different screening strategies. Results: For the fast STR progression scenario, personalised screening resulted in 11.6% more delayed STR diagnoses and €11.4 less costs per patient compared to annual screening from a healthcare perspective. The personalised screening model performed better in terms of timely diagnosis of STR (8.8% less delayed STR diagnosis) but it was slightly more expensive (€1.8 per patient from a healthcare perspective) than the Dutch guideline strategy. Conclusions/interpretation: The personalised diabetic retinopathy screening model is more cost-effective than the Dutch guideline screening strategy. Although the personalised screening strategy was less effective, in terms of timely diagnosis of STR patients, than annual screening, the number of delayed STR diagnoses is low and the cost saving is considerable. With around one million people with type 2 diabetes in the Netherlands, implementing this personalised model could save €11.4 million per year compared with annual screening, at the cost of 658 delayed STR diagnoses with a maximum delayed time to diagnosis of 48 months. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]

Kidney function measures and cardiovascular outcomes in people with diabetes: the Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort

Aims/hypothesis: Both manifestations of kidney disease in diabetes, reduced eGFR (ml/min per 1.73 m2) and increased urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR, mg/mmol), may increase the risk of specific CVD subtypes in adults with diabetes. Methods: We assessed the prospective association between annually recorded measures of eGFR and UACR and the occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI), CHD, stroke, heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular mortality in 13,657 individuals with diabetes (53.6% male, age 62.3±12.1 years) from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort, using data obtained between 1998 and 2018. Multivariate time-dependent Cox regression models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors were used to estimate HRs and 95% CI. Associations of eGFR were adjusted for UACR values and vice versa. Effect modification by sex was investigated for all associations. Results: After a mean follow-up period of 7 years, event rates per 1000 person-years were 3.08 for MI, 3.72 for CHD, 1.12 for HF, 0.84 for stroke and 6.25 for cardiovascular mortality. Mildly reduced eGFR (60–90 ml/min per 1.73 m2) and moderately to severely reduced eGFR (90 ml/min per 1.73 m2). Mildly reduced eGFR was associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR 2.53; 95% CI 1.27, 5.03). Moderately increased UACR (3–30 mg/mmol) and severely increased UACR (>30 mg/mmol) were prospectively associated with a higher cardiovascular mortality risk in men and women (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.41, 2.47 and HR 2.78; 95% CI 1.78, 4.34) compared with normal UACR (30 mg/mmol, categories were combined into UACR 3.0 mg/mmol in the stratified analysis. Women but not men with UACR >3.0 mg/mmol had a significantly higher risk of HF compared with normal UACR (HR 2.79; 95% CI 1.47, 5.28). Conclusions/interpretation: This study showed differential and independent prospective associations between manifestations of early kidney damage in diabetes and several CVD subtypes, suggesting that regular monitoring of both kidney function measures may help to identify individuals at higher risk of specific cardiovascular events. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]

Prediction models for development of retinopathy in people with type 2 diabetes:systematic review and external validation in a Dutch primary care setting

Aims/hypothesis: The aims of this study were to identify all published prognostic models predicting retinopathy risk applicable to people with type 2 diabetes, to assess their quality and accuracy, and to validate their predictive accuracy in a head-to-head comparison using an independent type 2 diabetes cohort. Methods: A systematic search was performed in PubMed and Embase in December 2019. Studies that met the following criteria were included: (1) the model was applicable in type 2 diabetes; (2) the outcome was retinopathy; and (3) follow-up was more than 1 year. Screening, data extraction (using the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systemic reviews of prediction modelling studies [CHARMS]) and risk of bias assessment (by prediction model risk of bias assessment tool [PROBAST]) were performed independently by two reviewers. Selected models were externally validated in the large Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort in the Netherlands. Retinopathy risk was calculated using baseline data and compared with retinopathy incidence over 5 years. Calibration after intercept adjustment and discrimination (Harrell’s C statistic) were assessed. Results: Twelve studies were included in the systematic review, reporting on 16 models. Outcomes ranged from referable retinopathy to blindness. Discrimination was reported in seven studies with C statistics ranging from 0.55 (95% CI 0.54, 0.56) to 0.84 (95% CI 0.78, 0.88). Five studies reported on calibration. Eight models could be compared head-to-head in the DCS cohort (N = 10,715). Most of the models underestimated retinopathy risk. Validating the models against different severities of retinopathy, C statistics ranged from 0.51 (95% CI 0.49, 0.53) to 0.89 (95% CI 0.88, 0.91). Conclusions/interpretation: Several prognostic models can accurately predict retinopathy risk in a population-based type 2 diabetes cohort. Most of the models include easy-to-measure predictors enhancing their applicability. Tailoring retinopathy screening frequency based on accurate risk predictions may increase the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of diabetic retinopathy care. Registration: PROSPERO registration ID CRD42018089122

Performance of prediction models for nephropathy in people with type 2 diabetes:systematic review and external validation study

OBJECTIVES To identify and assess the quality and accuracy of prognostic models for nephropathy and to validate these models in external cohorts of people with type 2 diabetes. DESIGN Systematic review and external validation. DATA SOURCES PubMed and Embase. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA Studies describing the development of a model to predict the risk of nephropathy, applicable to people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS Screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were done in duplicate. Eligible models were externally validated in the Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort (n=11 450) for the same outcomes for which they were developed. Risks of nephropathy were calculated and compared with observed risk over 2, 5, and 10 years of follow-up. Model performance was assessed based on intercept adjusted calibration and discrimination (Harrell's C statistic). RESULTS 41 studies included in the systematic review reported 64 models, 46 of which were developed in a population with diabetes and 18 in the general population including diabetes as a predictor. The predicted outcomes included albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, chronic kidney disease (general population), and end stage renal disease. The reported apparent discrimination of the 46 models varied considerably across the different predicted outcomes, from 0.60 (95% confidence interval 0.56 to 0.64) to 0.99 (not available) for the models developed in a diabetes population and from 0.59 (not available) to 0.96 (0.95 to 0.97) for the models developed in the general population. Calibration was reported in 31 of the 41 studies, and the models were generally well calibrated. 21 of the 64 retrieved models were externally validated in the Hoorn DCS cohort for predicting risk of albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, and chronic kidney disease, with considerable variation in performance across prediction horizons and models. For all three outcomes, however, at least two models had C statistics >0.8, indicating excellent discrimination. In a secondary external validation in GoDARTS (Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research in Tayside Scotland), models developed for diabetic kidney disease outperformed those for chronic kidney disease. Models were generally well calibrated across all three prediction horizons. CONCLUSIONS This study identified multiple prediction models to predict albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, chronic kidney disease, and end stage renal disease. In the external validation, discrimination and calibration for albuminuria, diabetic kidney disease, and chronic kidney disease varied considerably across prediction horizons and models. For each outcome, however, specific models showed good discrimination and calibration across the three prediction horizons, with clinically accessible predictors, making them applicable in a clinical setting. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION PROSPERO CRD42020192831.Molecular Epidemiolog

Sex- and site-specific differences in colorectal cancer risk among people with type 2 diabetes

Purpose: The prevalence of colorectal cancer is higher among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) than among patients without diabetes. Furthermore, men are at higher risk for developing colorectal cancer than women in the general population and also subsite-specific risks differ per sex. The aim was to evaluate the impact of T2D on these associations. Methods: A population-based matched cohort study was performed using data from the PHARMO Database Network. Patients with T2D were selected and matched (1:4) to diabetes free controls. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for CRC and its subsites. HRs were determined per sex and adjusted for age and socioeconomic status. The ratio of distal versus proximal colon cancer was calculated for people with T2D and controls per sex and stratified by age. Results: Over 55,000 people with T2D were matched to > 215,000 diabetes free controls. Men and women with T2D were 1.3 times more likely to develop colorectal cancer compared to controls. Men with T2D were at higher risk to develop distal colon cancer (hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), 1.42 (1.08–1.88)), and women with T2D were at higher risk for developing proximal colon cancer (hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), 1.58 (1.13–2.19)). For rectal cancer, no statistically significant risk was observed for both men and women. Conclusions: Sex-specific screening strategies and prevention protocols should be considered for people with T2D. More tailored screening strategies may optimize the effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening in terms of reducing incidence and mortality

Plasma Metabolomics Identifies Markers of Impaired Renal Function: A Meta-analysis of 3089 Persons with Type 2 Diabetes

CONTEXT: There is a need for novel biomarkers and better understanding of the pathophysiology of diabetic kidney disease. OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations between plasma metabolites and kidney function in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). DESIGN: 3089 samples from individuals with T2D, collected between 1999 and 2015, from 5 independent Dutch cohort studies were included. Up to 7 years follow-up was available in 1100 individuals from 2 of the cohorts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Plasma metabolites (n = 149) were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Associations between metabolites and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), and eGFR slopes were investigated in each study followed by random effect meta-analysis. Adjustments included traditional cardiovascular risk factors and correction for multiple testing. RESULTS: In total, 125 metabolites were significantly associated (PFDR = 1.5×10-32 - 0.046; β = -11.98-2.17) with eGFR. Inverse associations with eGFR were demonstrated for branched-chain and aromatic amino acids (AAAs), glycoprotein acetyls, triglycerides (TGs), lipids in very low-density lipoproteins (VLDL) subclasses, and fatty acids (PFDR < 0.03). We observed positive associations with cholesterol and phospholipids in high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and apolipoprotein A1 (PFDR < 0.05). Albeit some metabolites were associated with UACR levels (P < 0.05), significance was lost after correction for multiple testing. Tyrosine and HDL-related metabolites were positively associated with eGFR slopes before adjustment for multiple testing (PTyr = 0.003; PHDLrelated < 0.05), but not after. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified metabolites associated with impaired kidney function in T2D, implying involvement of lipid and amino acid metabolism in the pathogenesis. Whether these processes precede or are consequences of renal impairment needs further investigation

Heritability estimates for 361 blood metabolites across 40 genome-wide association studies

Metabolomics examines the small molecules involved in cellular metabolism. Approximately 50% of total phenotypic differences in metabolite levels is due to genetic variance, but heritability estimates differ across metabolite classes. We perform a review of all genome-wide association and (exome-) sequencing studies published between November 2008 and October 2018, and identify >800 class-specific metabolite loci associated with metabolite levels. In a twin-family cohort (N = 5117), these metabolite loci are leveraged to simultaneously estimate total heritability (h2 total), and the proportion of heritability captured by known metabolite loci (h2 Metabolite-hits) for 309 lipids and

A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Can Identify Patients With GAD65 Autoantibody-Positive Type 2 Diabetes Who Rapidly Progress to Insulin Therapy

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from American Diabetes Association via the DOI in this record.Objective Progression to insulin therapy in clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes is highly variable. GAD65 autoantibodies (GADA) are associated with faster progression, but their predictive value is limited. We aimed to determine if a Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score (T1DGRS) could predict rapid progression to insulin treatment over and above GADA testing. Research Design and Methods We examined the relationship between T1DGRS, GADA (negative or positive) and rapid insulin requirement (within 5 years) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression in 8,608 participants with clinical type 2 diabetes (onset >35 years, treated without insulin for ≥6 months). T1DGRS was analyzed both continuously (as standardized scores) and categorized based on previously reported centiles of a type 1 diabetes population (50th (high)). Results In GADA positive participants (3.3%), those with higher T1DGRS progressed to insulin more quickly: Probability of insulin requirement at five years [95% CI]: 47.9%[35.0%,62.78%] (high T1DGRS) vs 27.6%[20.5%,36.5%] (medium T1DGRS) vs 17.6%[11.2%,27.2%] (low T1DGRS), p=0.001. In contrast T1DGRS did not predict rapid insulin requirement in GADA negative participants (p=0.4). In Cox regression analysis with adjustment for age of diagnosis, BMI and cohort, T1DGRS was independently associated with time to insulin only in the presence of GADA: hazard ratio per SD increase 1.48 (1.15,1.90), p=0.002. Conclusions A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score alters the clinical implications of a positive GADA test in patients with clinical type 2 diabetes, and is independent of and additive to clinical features.The Wellcome Trust United Kingdom Type 2 Diabetes Case Control Collection (GoDARTS) was funded by The Wellcome Trust (084727/Z/08/Z, 085475/Z/08/Z, 085475/B/08/Z) and as part of the EU IMI-SUMMIT program. GADA assessment in GoDARTS and DCS was funded by EU Innovative Medicines Initiative 115317 (DIRECT), resources of which are composed of financial contributions from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013), and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) companies in kind contribution. The DCS cohort was partially funded by the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (Priority Medicines Elderly Programme 113102006). The Diabetes Alliance for Research in England (DARE) study was funded by the Wellcome Trust and supported by the Exeter NIHR Clinical Research Facility. The MASTERMIND study was funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MR/N00633X/) and supported by the NIHR Exeter Clinical Research Facility. The PRIBA study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (U.K.) (DRF-2010-03-72) and supported by the NIHR Exeter Clinical Research Facility. B.M.S and A.T.H. are supported by the NIHR Exeter Clinical Research Facility. T.J.M. is a National Institute for Health Research Senior Clinical Senior Lecturer. E.R.P. is a Wellcome Trust New Investigator (102820/Z/13/Z). A.T.H. is a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator and NIHR Senior Investigator. R.A.O is supported by a Diabetes UK Harry Keen Fellowship (16/0005529). A.G.J. is supported by an NIHR Clinician Scientist award (CS-2015-15-018)

Distinct molecular signatures of clinical clusters in people with type 2 diabetes:an IMI-RHAPSODY study

Type 2 diabetes is a multifactorial disease with multiple underlying aetiologies. To address this heterogeneity a previous study clustered people with diabetes into five diabetes subtypes. The aim of the current study is to investigate the aetiology of these clusters by comparing their molecular signatures. In three independent cohorts, in total 15,940 individuals were clustered based on five clinical characteristics. In a subset, genetic- (N=12828), metabolomic- (N=2945), lipidomic- (N=2593) and proteomic (N=1170) data were obtained in plasma. In each datatype each cluster was compared with the other four clusters as the reference. The insulin resistant cluster showed the most distinct molecular signature, with higher BCAAs, DAG and TAG levels and aberrant protein levels in plasma enriched for proteins in the intracellular PI3K/Akt pathway. The obese cluster showed higher cytokines. A subset of the mild diabetes cluster with high HDL showed the most beneficial molecular profile with opposite effects to those seen in the insulin resistant cluster. This study showed that clustering people with type 2 diabetes can identify underlying molecular mechanisms related to pancreatic islets, liver, and adipose tissue metabolism. This provides novel biological insights into the diverse aetiological processes that would not be evident when type 2 diabetes is viewed as a homogeneous diseas