A thirsty dragon: rising Chinese crude oil demand and prospects for multilateral energy security cooperation

"After Mao Zedongs death in 1976 and the turn to 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics', China opened up economically and, to a lesser extent, politically. That lead to China being the second largest car purchaser in 2011 and the second largest energy consumer the year before. In the last two decades, the country doubled its need for energy. But fossile energy carriers like crude oil are rare and China has to import the black gold from abroad. (The author) argues Chinas engagement in the global energy-sector does not necessarily lead to conflict, but offers chances for cooperation. He draws two scenarios: If everything goes wrong, the conflict for oil will exacerbate and lead to military conflict. China already strengthened its marine in the Indian Ocean, the US and India could do the same. The second scenario shows how cooperation could work: China, the West and India are consumers and thus could foster a common strategy as oil importers. In addition, their economies are highly interdependent and starting off a military conflict would mean damage to all of them. (The author) rather proposes strong cooperation and China's integration into international organizations such as OECDS's International Energy Agency." (author's abstract)"Mit dem Ende der Ära Mao Tse-Tung und der Einführung des 'Sozialismus chinesischer Prägung' öffnete sich das Reich der Mitte wirtschaftlich und, wenn auch weniger, politisch. Die Folge: China war 2011 der zweitgrößte Autoimporteur weltweit und im Jahr zuvor der zweitgrößte Energiekonsument. In den letzten 20 Jahren verdoppelte sich das Verlangen nach Energie in der aufstrebenden Volkswirtschaft. Doch fossile Energieträger wie Erdöl sind rar in China und das Land muss sich im Ausland mit dem schwarzen Gold versorgen. (Der Autor) argumentiert, das Engagement Chinas im Energiesektor muss nicht im Konflikt enden, sondern bietet auch Chancen zur Kooperation. Zwei Szenarien seien möglich: In einem negativen Fall verschärfe sich der Konflikt um die Ressource zu einer militärischen Auseinandersetzung. Schon jetzt habe China seine Marine im indischen Ozean verstärkt, die USA und Indien könnten antworten. Aber es gibt auch Aussichten für eine positive Entwicklung: Das zweite Szenario sieht gute Chancen für eine multilaterale Energiekooperation. Zum einen hätten die Staaten als Konsumenten gemeinsame Interessen an koordinierter Versorgungspolitik, darüber hinaus gebe die Interdependenz der Volkswirtschaften Anreize zur Konfliktvermeidung. (Der Autor) fordert zur engeren Kooperation die Aufnahme Chinas in internationale Organisationen, wie die International Energy Agency der OECD." (Autorenreferat

Unlocking the unsustainable rice-wheat system of Indian Punjab: Assessing alternatives to crop-residue burning from a systems perspective

Crop residue burning in Indian Punjab emits particulate matter with detrimental impacts on health, climate and that threaten agricultural production. Though legal and technological barriers to residue burning exist – and alternatives considered more profitable to farmers – residue burning continues. We review black carbon (BC) emissions from residue burning in Punjab, analyse social-ecological processes driving residue burning, and rice and wheat value-chains. Our aims are to a) understand system feedbacks driving agricultural practices in Punjab; b) identify systemic effects of alternatives to residue burning and c) identify companies and financial actors investing in agricultural production in Punjab. We find feedbacks locking the system into crop residue burning. The Government of India has greatest financial leverage and risk in the current system. Corporate stakeholders have little financial incentive to enact change, but sufficient stakes in the value chains to influence change. Agricultural policy changes are necessary to reduce harmful impacts of current practices, but insufficient to bringing about sustainability. Transformative changes will require crop diversification, circular business models and green financing. Intermediating financial institutions setting sustainability conditions on loans could leverage these changes. Sustainability requires the systems perspective we provide, to reconnect production with demand and with supporting environmental conditions

Unlocking the unsustainable rice-wheat system of Indian Punjab : assessing alternatives to crop-residue burning from a systems perspective

This work was funded by Formas (Project # 2018-01824), and through the generous support of the Erling-Persson Family Foundation to the Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.Crop residue burning in Indian Punjab emits particulate matter with detrimental impacts on health, climate and that threaten agricultural production. Though legal and technological barriers to residue burning exist – and alternatives considered more profitable to farmers – residue burning continues. We review black carbon (BC) emissions from residue burning in Punjab, analyse social-ecological processes driving residue burning, and rice and wheat value-chains. Our aims are to a) understand system feedbacks driving agricultural practices in Punjab; b) identify systemic effects of alternatives to residue burning and c) identify companies and financial actors investing in agricultural production in Punjab. We find feedbacks locking the system into crop residue burning. The Government of India has greatest financial leverage and risk in the current system. Corporate stakeholders have little financial incentive to enact change, but sufficient stakes in the value chains to influence change. Agricultural policy changes are necessary to reduce harmful impacts of current practices, but insufficient to bringing about sustainability. Transformative changes will require crop diversification, circular business models and green financing. Intermediating financial institutions setting sustainability conditions on loans could leverage these changes. Sustainability requires the systems perspective we provide, to reconnect production with demand and with supporting environmental conditions.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Artificial intelligence, systemic risks, and sustainability

Automated decision making and predictive analytics through artificial intelligence, in combination with rapid progress in technologies such as sensor technology and robotics are likely to change the way individuals, communities, governments and private actors perceive and respond to climate and ecological change. Methods based on various forms of artificial intelligence are already today being applied in a number of research fields related to climate change and environmental monitoring. Investments into applications of these technologies in agriculture, forestry and the extraction of marine resources also seem to be increasing rapidly. Despite a growing interest in, and deployment of AI-technologies in domains critical for sustainability, few have explored possible systemic risks in depth. This article offers a global overview of the progress of such technologies in sectors with high impact potential for sustainability like farming, forestry and the extraction of marine resources. We also identify possible systemic risks in these domains including a) algorithmic bias and allocative harms; b) unequal access and benefits; c) cascading failures and external disruptions, and d) trade-offs between efficiency and resilience. We explore these emerging risks, identify critical questions, and discuss the limitations of current governance mechanisms in addressing AI sustainability risks in these sectors

Evolving Perspectives of Stewardship in the Seafood Industry

Humanity has never benefited more from the ocean as a source of food, livelihoods, and well-being, yet on a global scale this has been accompanied by trajectories of degradation and persistent inequity. Awareness of this has spurred policymakers to develop an expanding network of ocean governance instruments, catalyzed civil society pressure on the public and private sector, and motivated engagement by the general public as consumers and constituents. Among local communities, diverse examples of stewardship have rested on the foundation of care, knowledge and agency. But does an analog for stewardship exist in the context of globally active multinational corporations? Here, we consider the seafood industry and its efforts to navigate this new reality through private governance. We examine paradigmatic events in the history of the sustainable seafood movement, from seafood boycotts in the 1970s through to the emergence of certification measures, benchmarks, and diverse voluntary environmental programs. We note four dimensions of stewardship in which efforts by actors within the seafood industry have aligned with theoretical concepts of stewardship, which we describe as (1) moving beyond compliance, (2) taking a systems perspective, (3) living with uncertainty, and (4) understanding humans as embedded elements of the biosphere. In conclusion, we identify emerging stewardship challenges for the seafood industry and suggest the urgent need to embrace a broader notion of ocean stewardship that extends beyond seafood

The role of multilateral climate funds in urban transitions between 1994 and 2014

The developing world is currently undergoing fast urbanization, and urban infrastructure systems built today are likely to influence global greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption patterns for decades to come. This study draws on the analysis of 1994–2014 climate finance investments by five major multilateral climate funds that have a record of directly supporting urban climate mitigation and adaptation actions in cities across developing countries. The analysis indicates that the administered funds provided very limited support to urban climate finance across the developing world. In middle-income countries mitigation projects within transport sector dominated both urban multilateral climate finance and co-finance. Cities in low-income countries attracted non-considerable amounts of urban climate finance, most of which were supporting urban adaptation efforts. The study concludes by outlining that multilateral climate funds should give higher priority to urban climate finance on their investment portfolios with a particular emphasis on rapidly urbanizing cities in low-income countries

NATO and Collective Environmental Security in the MENA: From the Cold War to Covid-19

The Covid-19 pandemic emerged as a global security risk, and national security institutions scrambled to manage a threat, not emanating from states or non-state actors, but from the environment. The pandemic serves as an empirical case to explore “anthropogenic strategic security,” or how security doctrines can anticipate and mitigate natural disasters, resulting from humanity’s exploitation of ecology and environment. This qualitative study addresses the question as to whether the NATO possesses the imaginative and institutional capacity to manage environmental risks resulting from climate change. By employing constructivist theory, this article argues that the Alliance needs to adopt holistic norms and approaches towards security. By expanding its identity and mission, it should adopt policies that task its constituent parts to serve as a de-facto “Climate Alliance Treaty Organization,” particularly in the MENA region, which is extremely vulnerable to environmental risks. A review of past NATO statements, meetings, and institutions provide the key findings, demonstrating that the Alliance’s past experience in aiding non-members, such as in the Balkans and South and Central Asia, has endowed the Alliance with the infrastructure, experience, and mechanisms for strategic partnerships with MENA nations on climate mitigation strategies

Critiquing Latour’s Explanation of Climate Change Denial: Moving Beyond the Modernity/Anthropocene Binary

The concept of the Anthropocene has reintroduced politics of denial at the centre of critical studies of international relations. This article interrogates Bruno Latour’s explanation of climate change denial with reference to an ontological difference between Modernity and the Anthropocene, together with his advocacy for a new language beyond the Modern gaze. Our aims are twofold: to disclose how Latour’s posthuman critique risk reproducing prevalent forms of climate change denial in the global North, and to question what falls outside Latour’s dualistic frame: the heterogenous ways through which climate change and the Anthropocene is met across the globe; the ambiguous relation with nature through which modernity was formed; the modernist genealogy of Anthropocene discourse, and lastly how discourses of global governance have absorbed posthumanist critique in its attempt to naturalise postcolonial power relations. At stake, we argue, is critical theory’s paradoxical complicity in the denialism it seeks to critique