Modifiable causes of premature death in middle-age in Western Europe: results from the EPIC cohort study

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy is increasing in Europe, yet a substantial proportion of adults still die prematurely before the age of 70 years. We sought to estimate the joint and relative contributions of tobacco smoking, hypertension, obesity, physical inactivity, alcohol and poor diet towards risk of premature death. METHODS: We analysed data from 264,906 European adults from the EPIC prospective cohort study, aged between 40 and 70 years at the time of recruitment. Flexible parametric survival models were used to model risk of death conditional on risk factors, and survival functions and attributable fractions (AF) for deaths prior to age 70 years were calculated based on the fitted models. RESULTS: We identified 11,930 deaths which occurred before the age of 70. The AF for premature mortality for smoking was 31 % (95 % confidence interval (CI), 31–32 %) and 14 % (95 % CI, 12–16 %) for poor diet. Important contributions were also observed for overweight and obesity measured by waist-hip ratio (10 %; 95 % CI, 8–12 %) and high blood pressure (9 %; 95 % CI, 7–11 %). AFs for physical inactivity and excessive alcohol intake were 7 % and 4 %, respectively. Collectively, the AF for all six risk factors was 57 % (95 % CI, 55–59 %), being 35 % (95 % CI, 32–37 %) among never smokers and 74 % (95 % CI, 73–75 %) among current smokers. CONCLUSIONS: While smoking remains the predominant risk factor for premature death in Europe, poor diet, overweight and obesity, hypertension, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol consumption also contribute substantially. Any attempt to minimise premature deaths will ultimately require all six factors to be addressed.This work was supported by the French Social Affairs & Health Ministry, Department of Health (Direction Générale de la Santé). The work undertaken by David C Muller for this project was performed during the tenure of an IARC-Australia fellowship supported by Cancer Council Australia. Elio Riboli was supported by the Imperial College Biomedical Research Centre funded by the National Institute of Health Research of UK. The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health. (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (no. 6236) and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C570/A16491 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk) (United Kingdom)

A prospective evaluation of plasma polyphenol levels and colon cancer risk

Polyphenols have been shown to exert biological activity in experimental models of colon cancer; however, human data linking specific polyphenols to colon cancer is limited. We assessed the relationship between pre-diagnostic plasma polyphenols and colon cancer risk in a case–control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Using high pressure liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry, we measured concentrations of 35 polyphenols in plasma from 809 incident colon cancer cases and 809 matched controls. We used multivariable adjusted conditional logistic regression models that included established colon cancer risk factors. The false discovery rate (qvalues) was computed to control for multiple comparisons. All statistical tests were two-sided. After false discovery rate correction and in continuous log2-transformed multivariable models, equol (odds ratio [OR] per log2-value, 0.86, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]=0.79-0.93; qvalue=0.01) and homovanillic acid (OR per log2-value, 1.46, 95%CI=1.16-1.84; qvalue=0.02) were associated with colon cancer risk. Comparing extreme fifths, equol concentrations were inversely associated with colon cancer risk (OR=0.61, 95%CI=0.41-0.91, ptrend=0.003), while homovanillic acid concentrations were positively associated with colon cancer development (OR=1.72, 95%CI=1.17-2.53, ptrend&lt;0.0001). No heterogeneity for these associations was observed by sex and across other colon cancer risk factors. The remaining polyphenols were not associated with colon cancer risk. Higher equol concentrations were associated with lower risk, and higher homovanillic acid concentrations were associated with greater risk, of colon cancer. These findings support a potential role for specific polyphenols in colon tumorigenesis. </p

A prospective evaluation of plasma polyphenol levels and colon cancer risk

Polyphenols have been shown to exert biological activity in experimental models of colon cancer; however, human data linking specific polyphenols to colon cancer is limited. We assessed the relationship between pre-diagnostic plasma polyphenols and colon cancer risk in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Using high pressure liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry, we measured concentrations of 35 polyphenols in plasma from 809 incident colon cancer cases and 809 matched controls. We used multivariable adjusted conditional logistic regression models that included established colon cancer risk factors. The false discovery rate (qvalues ) was computed to control for multiple comparisons. All statistical tests were two-sided. After false discovery rate correction and in continuous log2 -transformed multivariable models, equol (odds ratio [OR] per log2 -value, 0.86, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.79-0.93; qvalue  = 0.01) and homovanillic acid (OR per log2 -value, 1.46, 95% CI = 1.16-1.84; qvalue  = 0.02) were associated with colon cancer risk. Comparing extreme fifths, equol concentrations were inversely associated with colon cancer risk (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.41-0.91, ptrend  = 0.003), while homovanillic acid concentrations were positively associated with colon cancer development (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.17-2.53, ptrend  &lt; 0.0001). No heterogeneity for these associations was observed by sex and across other colon cancer risk factors. The remaining polyphenols were not associated with colon cancer risk. Higher equol concentrations were associated with lower risk, and higher homovanillic acid concentrations were associated with greater risk of colon cancer. These findings support a potential role for specific polyphenols in colon tumorigenesis

A prospective evaluation of plasma polyphenol levels and colon cancer risk

Polyphenols have been shown to exert biological activity in experimental models of colon cancer; however, human data linking specific polyphenols to colon cancer is limited. We assessed the relationship between pre-diagnostic plasma polyphenols and colon cancer risk in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Using high pressure liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry, we measured concentrations of 35 polyphenols in plasma from 809 incident colon cancer cases and 809 matched controls. We used multivariable adjusted conditional logistic regression models that included established colon cancer risk factors. The false discovery rate (qvalues ) was computed to control for multiple comparisons. All statistical tests were two-sided. After false discovery rate correction and in continuous log2 -transformed multivariable models, equol (odds ratio [OR] per log2 -value, 0.86, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]=0.79-0.93; qvalue =0.01) and homovanillic acid (OR per log2 -value, 1.46, 95%CI=1.16-1.84; qvalue =0.02) were associated with colon cancer risk. Comparing extreme fifths, equol concentrations were inversely associated with colon cancer risk (OR=0.61, 95%CI=0.41-0.91, ptrend =0.003), while homovanillic acid concentrations were positively associated with colon cancer development (OR=1.72, 95%CI=1.17-2.53, ptrend <0.0001). No heterogeneity for these associations was observed by sex and across other colon cancer risk factors. The remaining polyphenols were not associated with colon cancer risk. Higher equol concentrations were associated with lower risk, and higher homovanillic acid concentrations were associated with greater risk, of colon cancer. These findings support a potential role for specific polyphenols in colon tumorigenesis

Dietary factors and in situ and invasive cervical cancer risk in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition study.

Some dietary factors could be involved as cofactors in cervical carcinogenesis, but evidence is inconclusive. There are no data about the effect of fruits and vegetables intake (FandV) on cervical cancer from cohort studies. We examined the association between the intake of FandV and selected nutrients and the incidence of carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive squamous cervical cancer (ISC) in a prospective study of 299,649 women, participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). A calibration study was used to control measurement errors in the dietary questionnaire. After a mean of 9 years of follow-up, 253 ISC and 817 CIS cases were diagnosed. In the calibrated model, we observed a statistically significant inverse association of ISC with a daily increase in intake of 100 g of total fruits (HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.72-0.98) and a statistically nonsignificant inverse association with a daily increase in intake of 100 g of total vegetables (HR 0.85: 95% CI 0.65-1.10). Statistically nonsignificant inverse associations were also observed for leafy vegetables, root vegetables, garlic and onions, citrus fruits, vitamin C, vitamin E and retinol for ISC. No association was found regarding beta-carotene, vitamin D and folic acid for ISC. None of the dietary factors examined was associated with CIS. Our study suggests a possible protective role of fruit intake and other dietary factors on ISC that need to be confirmed on a larger number of ISC cases