Risk scoring models for trade credit in small and medium enterprises

Trade credit refers to providing goods and services on a deferred payment basis. Commercial credit management is a matter of great importance for most small and medium enterprises (SMEs), since it represents a significant portion of their assets. Commercial lending involves assuming some credit risk due to exposure to default. Thus, the management of trade credit and payment delays is strongly related to the liquidation and bankruptcy of enterprises. In this paper we study the relationship between trade credit management and the level of risk in SMEs. Despite its relevance for most SMEs, this problem has not been sufficiently analyzed in the existing literature. After a brief review of existing literature, we use a large database of enterprises to analyze data and propose a multivariate decision-tree model which aims at explaining the level of risk as a function of several variables, both of financial and non-financial nature. Decision trees replace the equation in parametric regression models with a set of rules. This feature is an important aid for the decision process of risk experts, as it allows them to reduce time and then the economic cost of their decisions

Calculating confidence intervals for impact numbers

BACKGROUND: Standard effect measures such as risk difference and attributable risk are frequently used in epidemiological studies and public health research to describe the effect of exposures. Recently, so-called impact numbers have been proposed, which express the population impact of exposures in form of specific person or case numbers. To describe estimation uncertainty, it is necessary to calculate confidence intervals for these new effect measures. In this paper, we present methods to calculate confidence intervals for the new impact numbers in the situation of cohort studies. METHODS: Beside the exposure impact number (EIN), which is equivalent to the well-known number needed to treat (NNT), two other impact numbers are considered: the case impact number (CIN) and the exposed cases impact number (ECIN), which describe the number of cases (CIN) and the number of exposed cases (ECIN) with an outcome among whom one case is attributable to the exposure. The CIN and ECIN represent reciprocals of the population attributable risk (PAR) and the attributable fraction among the exposed (AF(e)), respectively. Thus, confidence intervals for these impact numbers can be calculated by inverting and exchanging the confidence limits of the PAR and AF(e). EXAMPLES: We considered a British and a Japanese cohort study that investigated the association between smoking and death from coronary heart disease (CHD) and between smoking and stroke, respectively. We used the reported death and disease rates and calculated impact numbers with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. In the British study, the CIN was 6.46, i.e. on average, of any 6 to 7 persons who died of CHD, one case was attributable to smoking with corresponding 95% confidence interval of [3.84, 20.36]. For the exposed cases, the results of ECIN = 2.64 with 95% confidence interval [1.76, 5.29] were obtained. In the Japanese study, the CIN was 6.67, i.e. on average, of the 6 to 7 persons who had a stroke, one case was attributable to smoking with corresponding 95% confidence interval of [3.80, 27.27]. For the exposed cases, the results of ECIN = 4.89 with 95% confidence interval of [2.86, 16.67] were obtained. CONCLUSION: The consideration of impact numbers in epidemiological analyses provides additional information and helps the interpretation of study results, e.g. in public health research. In practical applications, it is necessary to describe estimation uncertainty. We have shown that the calculation of confidence intervals for the new impact numbers is possible by means of known methods for attributable risk measures. Therefore, estimated impact numbers should always be complemented by appropriate confidence intervals

Accounting Problems Under the Excess Profits Tax

DNA vaccines based on subunits from pathogens have several advantages over other vaccine strategies. DNA vaccines can easily be modified, they show good safety profiles, are stable and inexpensive to produce, and the immune response can be focused to the antigen of interest. However, the immunogenicity of DNA vaccines which is generally quite low needs to be improved. Electroporation and co-delivery of genetically encoded immune adjuvants are two strategies aiming at increasing the efficacy of DNA vaccines. Here, we have examined whether targeting to antigen-presenting cells (APC) could increase the immune response to surface envelope glycoprotein (Env) gp120 from Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV- 1). To target APC, we utilized a homodimeric vaccine format denoted vaccibody, which enables covalent fusion of gp120 to molecules that can target APC. Two molecules were tested for their efficiency as targeting units: the antibody-derived single chain Fragment variable (scFv) specific for the major histocompatilibility complex (MHC) class II I-E molecules, and the CC chemokine ligand 3 (CCL3). The vaccines were delivered as DNA into muscle of mice with or without electroporation. Targeting of gp120 to MHC class II molecules induced antibodies that neutralized HIV-1 and that persisted for more than a year after one single immunization with electroporation. Targeting by CCL3 significantly increased the number of HIV-1 gp120-reactive CD8(+) T cells compared to non-targeted vaccines and gp120 delivered alone in the absence of electroporation. The data suggest that chemokines are promising molecular adjuvants because small amounts can attract immune cells and promote immune responses without advanced equipment such as electroporation.Funding Agencies|Research Council of Norway; Odd Fellow</p

Evaluation of Pseudo-Haptic Interactions with Soft Objects in Virtual Environments

This paper proposes a pseudo-haptic feedback method conveying simulated soft surface stiffness information through a visual interface. The method exploits a combination of two feedback techniques, namely visual feedback of soft surface deformation and control of the indenter avatar speed, to convey stiffness information of a simulated surface of a soft object in virtual environments. The proposed method was effective in distinguishing different sizes of virtual hard nodules integrated into the simulated soft bodies. To further improve the interactive experience, the approach was extended creating a multi-point pseudo-haptic feedback system. A comparison with regards to (a) nodule detection sensitivity and (b) elapsed time as performance indicators in hard nodule detection experiments to a tablet computer incorporating vibration feedback was conducted. The multi-point pseudo-haptic interaction is shown to be more time-efficient than the single-point pseudo-haptic interaction. It is noted that multi-point pseudo-haptic feedback performs similarly well when compared to a vibration-based feedback method based on both performance measures elapsed time and nodule detection sensitivity. This proves that the proposed method can be used to convey detailed haptic information for virtual environmental tasks, even subtle ones, using either a computer mouse or a pressure sensitive device as an input device. This pseudo-haptic feedback method provides an opportunity for low-cost simulation of objects with soft surfaces and hard inclusions, as, for example, occurring in ever more realistic video games with increasing emphasis on interaction with the physical environment and minimally invasive surgery in the form of soft tissue organs with embedded cancer nodules. Hence, the method can be used in many low-budget applications where haptic sensation is required, such as surgeon training or video games, either using desktop computers or portable devices, showing reasonably high fidelity in conveying stiffness perception to the user

Using Visual Cues to Enhance Haptic Feedback for Palpation on Virtual Model of Soft Tissue

This paper explores methods that make use of visual cues aimed at generating actual haptic sensation to the user, namely pseudo-haptics. We propose a new pseudo-haptic feedback based method capable of conveying 3D haptic information and combining visual haptics with force feedback to enhance the user’s haptic experience. We focused on an application related to tumor identification during palpation and evaluated the proposed method in an experimental study where users interacted with a haptic device and graphical interface while exploring a virtual model of soft tissue, which represented stiffness distribution of a silicone phantom tissue with embedded hard inclusions. The performance of hard inclusion detection using force feedback only, pseudo-haptic feedback only, and the combination of the two feedbacks were compared with the direct hand touch. The combination method and direct hand touch had no significant difference in the detection results. Compared with the force feedback alone, our method increased the sensitivity by 5%, the positive predictive value by 4%, and decreased detection time by 48.7%. The proposed methodology has great potential for robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery and in all applications where remote haptic feedback is needed

Comparing administrative and survey data for ascertaining cases of irritable bowel syndrome: a population-based investigation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Administrative and survey data are two key data sources for population-based research about chronic disease. The objectives of this methodological paper are to: (1) estimate agreement between the two data sources for irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and compare the results to those for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); (2) compare the frequency of IBS-related diagnoses in administrative data for survey respondents with and without self-reported IBS, and (3) estimate IBS prevalence from both sources.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This retrospective cohort study used linked administrative and health survey data for 5,134 adults from the province of Manitoba, Canada. Diagnoses in hospital and physician administrative data were investigated for respondents with self-reported IBS, IBD, and no bowel disorder. Agreement between survey and administrative data was estimated using the κ statistic. The χ²statistic tested the association between the frequency of IBS-related diagnoses and self-reported IBS. Crude, sex-specific, and age-specific IBS prevalence estimates were calculated from both sources.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, 3.0% of the cohort had self-reported IBS, 0.8% had self-reported IBD, and 95.3% reported no bowel disorder. Agreement was poor to fair for IBS and substantially higher for IBD. The most frequent IBS-related diagnoses among the cohort were anxiety disorders (34.4%), symptoms of the abdomen and pelvis (26.9%), and diverticulitis of the intestine (10.6%). Crude IBS prevalence estimates from both sources were lower than those reported previously.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Poor agreement between administrative and survey data for IBS may account for differences in the results of health services and outcomes research using these sources. Further research is needed to identify the optimal method(s) to ascertain IBS cases in both data sources.</p

Acceptance of technology-enhanced learning for a theoretical radiological science course: a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Technology-enhanced learning (TEL) gives a view to improved education. However, there is a need to clarify how TEL can be used effectively. The study compared students' attitudes and opinions towards a traditional face-to-face course on theoretical radiological science and a TEL course where students could combine face-to-face lectures and e-learning modules at their best convenience.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>42 third-year dental students were randomly assigned to the traditional face-to-face group and the TEL group. Both groups completed questionnaires before the beginning and after completion of the course on attitudes and opinions towards a traditional face-to-face lectures and technology-enhanced learning. After completion of the course both groups also filled in the validated German-language TRIL (Trierer Inventar zur Lehrevaluation) questionnaire for the evaluation of courses given at universities.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both groups had a positive attitude towards e-learning that did not change over time. The TEL group attended significantly less face-to-face lectures than the traditional group. However, both groups stated that face-to-face lectures were the basis for education in a theoretical radiological science course.</p> <p>The members of the TEL group rated e-mail reminders significantly more important when they filled in the questionnaire on attitudes and opinions towards a traditional face-to-face lectures and technology-enhanced learning for the second time after completion of the course.</p> <p>The members of the technology-enhanced learning group were significantly less confident in passing the exam compared to the members of the traditional group. However, examination results did not differ significantly for traditional and the TEL group.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It seems that technology-enhanced learning in a theoretical radiological science course has the potential to reduce the need for face-to-face lectures. At the same time examination results are not impaired. However, technology-enhanced learning cannot completely replace traditional face-to-face lectures, because students indicate that they consider traditional teaching as the basis of their education.</p

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an exposure-based return-to-work programme for patients on sick leave due to common mental disorders: design of a cluster-randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To reduce the duration of sick leave and loss of productivity due to common mental disorders (CMDs), we developed a return-to-work programme to be provided by occupational physicians (OPs) based on the principles of exposure in vivo (RTW-E programme). This study evaluates this programme's effectiveness and cost-effectiveness by comparing it with care as usual (CAU). The three research questions we have are: 1) Is an RTW-E programme more effective in reducing the sick leave of employees with common mental disorders, compared with care as usual? 2) Is an RTW-E programme more effective in reducing sick leave for employees with anxiety disorders compared with employees with other common mental disorders? 3) From a societal perspective, is an RTW-E programme cost-effective compared with care as usual?</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>This study was designed as a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial with a one-year follow-up and randomization on the level of OPs. We aimed for 60 OPs in order to include 200 patients. Patients in the intervention group received the RTW-E programme. Patients in the control group received care as usual. Eligible patients had been on sick leave due to common mental disorders for at least two weeks and no longer than eight weeks. As primary outcome measures, we calculated the time until full return to work and the duration of sick leave. Secondary outcome measures were time until partial return to work, prevalence rate of sick leave at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months' follow-up, and scores of symptoms of distress, anxiety, depression, somatization, and fatigue; work capacity; perceived working conditions; self-efficacy for return to work; coping behaviour; avoidance behaviour; patient satisfaction; and work adaptations. As process measures, we used indices of compliance with the intervention in the intervention group and employee-supervisor communication in both groups. Economic costs were calculated from a societal perspective. The total costs consisted of the costs of consuming health care, costs of production loss due to sick leave and reduced productivity, and out-of-pocket costs of patients for travelling to their OP.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The results will be published in 2009. The strengths and weaknesses of the study protocol are discussed.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN72643128</p

Investigating the cost-effectiveness of videotelephone based support for newly diagnosed paediatric oncology patients and their families: design of a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Providing ongoing family centred support is an integral part of childhood cancer care. For families living in regional and remote areas, opportunities to receive specialist support are limited by the availability of health care professionals and accessibility, which is often reduced due to distance, time, cost and transport. The primary aim of this work is to investigate the cost-effectiveness of videotelephony to support regional and remote families returning home for the first time with a child newly diagnosed with cancer METHODS/DESIGN: We will recruit 162 paediatric oncology patients and their families to a single centre randomised controlled trial. Patients from regional and remote areas, classified by Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA+) greater than 0.2, will be randomised to a videotelephone support intervention or a usual support control group. Metropolitan families (ARIA+ ≤ 0.2) will be recruited as an additional usual support control group. Families allocated to the videotelephone support intervention will have access to usual support plus education, communication, counselling and monitoring with specialist multidisciplinary team members via a videotelephone service for a 12-week period following first discharge home. Families in the usual support control group will receive standard care i.e., specialist multidisciplinary team members provide support either face-to-face during inpatient stays, outpatient clinic visits or home visits, or via telephone for families who live far away from the hospital. The primary outcome measure is parental health related quality of life as measured using the Medical Outcome Survey (MOS) Short Form SF-12 measured at baseline, 4 weeks, 8 weeks and 12 weeks. The secondary outcome measures are: parental informational and emotional support; parental perceived stress, parent reported patient quality of life and parent reported sibling quality of life, parental satisfaction with care, cost of providing improved support, health care utilisation and financial burden for families. DISCUSSION: This investigation will establish the feasibility, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of using videotelephony to improve the clinical and psychosocial support provided to regional and remote paediatric oncology patients and their families