Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries: Hypothèses de projections stochastiquesàlong terme des populations de 18 pays européens

The aim of the ‘Uncertain Population of Europe’(UPE) project was to compute long-term stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a general methodology for constructing predictive distributions for fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions underlying stochastic population forecasts can be assessed by analysing errors in past forecasts or model-based estimates of forecast errors, or by expert judgement. All three approaches have been used in the project. This article summarizes and discusses the results of the three approaches. It demonstrates how the—sometimes conflicting—results can be synthesized into a consistent set of assumptions about the expected levels and the uncertainty of total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth of men and women, and net migration for 18 European countries

Revealing the foraging movements and diet of the White-faced Storm Petrel Pelagodroma marina in the NE Atlantic

The White-faced Storm Petrel (WFSP) Pelagodroma marina has a widespread distribution, although virtually nothing is known about their feeding ecology and distributions at-sea. To describe their foraging areas, a total of 77 birds were equipped with 1 g-GPS loggers on Selvagem Grande, Madeira, Portugal (30° 09′ N, 15° 52′ W), during the 2018 and 2019 breeding seasons. We also assessed the diet of WFSP by analysing 17 faecal samples from chicks and 1 regurgitation from an adult using DNA metabarcoding techniques. Additionally, we collected body feathers from ten WFSP chicks to determine mercury concentration. WFSP fed mainly in deep oceanic waters, travelling up to 400 km from the colony, and did not concentrate in any well-defned, population-level foraging hotspots. Some individuals foraged along the edge of the shelf, near the African coast and the Canary Islands, especially during chick rearing. The duration of foraging trips and the total distance travelled, were, on average, 5.1 days and 723 km during the incubation period and 3.0 days and 578 km during chick rearing. The diet of WFSP was dominated by fsh and cephalopods (crustacean prey were not detected), with Myctophidae (FO=71%) representing the main fsh family. WFSP often consume mesopelagic fsh, in line with their preference for deep oceanic waters and with a small diference in at sea behavior (i.e., travel speed) between the diurnal and nocturnal period. The relatively high concentrations of mercury accumulated in body feathers of WFSP chicks (3.45±1.44 mg kg−1 dry weight; range 1.68–6.01 mg kg−1) support the idea that WFSP raise their chicks mostly on mesopelagic prey from deep pelagic areas.CESAM; Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia - FCTinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Characterization of an extinct seabird colony on the island of Santa Luzia (Cabo Verde) and its potential for future recolonizations

Islands worldwide have sufered seabird extinctions after the arrival of humans and the alien species they introduced. On Santa Luzia (Cabo Verde), an uninhabited island of 35 km2 ,the presence of an impressive quantity of petrel bones in coastal dunes suggested the previous existence of an important seabird colony. Yet, these remains had not been identifed and no seabird extinctions have been reported for the island. This paper characterizes the extinct seabird colony of Santa Luzia and discusses the chronology and possible causes of its demise. A total of 130 grid points in a 5 km2 area and 38 supplementary points within and outside the main study area were excavated to collect bone remains. A total of 1318 anatomical elements, identifed as White-faced Storm Petrel Pelagodroma marina eadesorum (85.3% of the minimum number of individuals, MNI), Boyd’s Shearwater Pufnus lherminieri boydi (11.8% MNI) and Cape Verde Storm Petrel Hydrobates jabejabe (2.9% MNI), were found in 18% of the sampling points, within 1.25 km2 . Neither of the two former species currently breeds on Santa Luzia. In addition, two bones of the Cape Verde Shearwater Calonectris edwardsii and Pterodroma sp. were detected in the supplementary points. Radiocarbon dating of White-faced Storm Petrel (n=10) and Boyd’s Shearwater bones (n=13) suggests that the colony probably went extinct during the frst half of the twentieth century. The recent extinction of these species on Santa Luzia might be consequent on the arrival of humans and their domestic animals on the island. We estimate that the extinct seabird populations must have been at least hundreds of thousand strong, far larger than current populations of the same species in Cabo Verde. We suggest that, following feral cat eradication, Santa Luzia has a signifcant potential for seabird restorationFundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia - FCTinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

a one health approach

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Influence of body odors and gender on perceived genital arousal

Olfaction is often linked to mating behavior in nonhumans. Additionally, studies in mating behavior have shown that women seem to be more affected by odor cues than men. However, the relationship between odor cues and sexual response—specifically, sexual arousal—has not been studied yet. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the exposure to human body odors (from individuals of the opposite gender) on perceived genital arousal, while these were presented concomitantly to sexually explicit video clips. Eighty university students (40 women) rated their perceived genital arousal (perceived degree of erection/genital lubrication) in response to an audiovisual sexual stimulus, while simultaneously exposed to a body odor from an opposite-gender donor or no odor. Participants also rated each odor sample’s (body odor and no odor) perceived pleasantness, intensity, and familiarity. Findings indicated that odor condition had an effect on women’s (but not men’s) perceived genital arousal, with women showing higher levels of perceived genital arousal in the no odor condition. Also, results showed that women rated body odors as less pleasant than no odor. Notwithstanding, the odor ratings do not seem to explain the association between body odor and perceived genital arousal. The current results support the hypothesis that women, rather than men, are sensitive to odors in the context of sexual response. The findings of this study have relevance for the understanding of human sexuality with respect to chemosensory communicationinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

systematic review & meta-analysis

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Inferior parietal lobule and early visual areas support elicitation of individualized meanings during narrative listening

Introduction: When listening to a narrative, the verbal expressions translate into meanings and flow of mental imagery. However, the same narrative can be heard quite differently based on differences in listeners' previous experiences and knowledge. We capitalized on such differences to disclose brain regions that support transformation of narrative into individualized propositional meanings and associated mental imagery by analyzing brain activity associated with behaviorally assessed individual meanings elicited by a narrative. Methods: Sixteen right-handed female subjects were instructed to list words that best described what had come to their minds while listening to an eight-minute narrative during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The fMRI data were analyzed by calculating voxel-wise intersubject correlation (ISC) values. We used latent semantic analysis (LSA) enhanced with Wordnet knowledge to measure semantic similarity of the produced words between subjects. Finally, we predicted the ISC with the semantic similarity using representational similarity analysis. Results: We found that semantic similarity in these word listings between subjects, estimated using LSA combined with WordNet knowledge, predicting similarities in brain hemodynamic activity. Subject pairs whose individual semantics were similar also exhibited similar brain activity in the bilateral supramarginal and angular gyrus of the inferior parietal lobe, and in the occipital pole. Conclusions: Our results demonstrate, using a novel method to measure interindividual differences in semantics, brain mechanisms giving rise to semantics and associated imagery during narrative listening. During listening to a captivating narrative, the inferior parietal lobe and early visual cortical areas seem, thus, to support elicitation of individual meanings and flow of mental imagery.Peer reviewe

Assessment of knee alignment with varus and valgus force through the range of flexion with non-invasive navigation

In image-free total knee arthroplasty (TKA) navigation, infra-red markers are attached to bony landmarks to provide kinematic data intra-operatively, with the aim of improving the precision of implant placement. In non-invasive navigation, infra-red markers are attached to the skin surface, with recent evidence suggesting that this can give repeatable measurements of lower limb mechanical alignment. The aim of our study was to evaluate the use of a non-invasive navigation system in the assessment of mechanical alignment with applied coronal force through the range of flexion. A previously validated non-invasive system (Physiopilot™) was tested on 23 volunteers with healthy knees. Two users performed two registrations of the software workflow on each participant’s right and left knees. A force was manually applied to the end-point of varus and valgus knee laxity and the measured change in mechanical alignment was recorded. Force was applied with the knee positioned in increments of flexion from 0 to 90°. In keeping with previous studies, satisfactory values of coefficient of repeatability (CR) of 1.55 and 1.33 were found for intra-observer repeatability in measurement of supine mechanical femoro-tibial angle (MFTA) in extension, with a good inter-observer correlation of intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) .72. However, when flexion was introduced, intra-observer and inter-observer reliability fell out with acceptable limits. Therefore, the trial did not support use of the Physiopilot™ system as a measure of MFTA when flexion is introduced. It was felt that learning-curve, soft tissue artefacts and lack of force standardisation equipment may have accounted for significant levels of error, with further studies required to address these issues