12 research outputs found
Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift.
Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well characterized, but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses, on the basis of analyses of 9,604 haemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000 to 2012. Whereas genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across several seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with East and Southeast Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller, less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as probable drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology, and human behaviour.T.B.
was
supported
by
a
Newton
International
Fellowship
from
the
Royal
Society
and
through
NIH
U54
GM111274.
S.R.
was
supported
by
MRC
(UK,
Project
MR/J008761/1),
Wellcome
Trust
(UK,
Project
093488/Z/10/Z),
Fogarty
International
Centre
(USA,
R01
TW008246â01),
DHS
(USA,
RAPIDD
program),
NIGMS
(USA,
MIDAS
U01
GM110721â01)
and
NIHR
(UK,
Health
Protection
Research
Unit
funding).
The
Melbourne
WHO
Collaborating
Centre
for
Reference
and
Research
on
Influenza
was
supported
by
the
Australian
Government
Department
of
Health
and
thanks
N.
Komadina
and
Y.âM.
Deng.
The
Atlanta
WHO
Collaborating
Center
for
Surveillance,
Epidemiology
and
Control
of
Influenza
was
supported
by
the
U.S.
Department
of
13
Health
and
Human
Services.
NIV
thanks
A.C.
Mishra,
M.
ChawlaâSarkar,
A.M.
Abraham,
D.
Biswas,
S.
Shrikhande,
AnuKumar
B,
and
A.
Jain.
Influenza
surveillance
in
India
was
expanded,
in
part,
through
US
Cooperative
Agreements
(5U50C1024407
and
U51IP000333)
and
by
the
Indian
Council
of
Medical
Research.
M.A.S.
was
supported
through
NSF
DMS
1264153
and
NIH
R01
AI
107034.
Work
of
the
WHO
Collaborating
Centre
for
Reference
and
Research
on
Influenza
at
the
MRC
National
Institute
for
Medical
Research
was
supported
by
U117512723.
P.L.,
A.R.
&
M.A.S
were
supported
by
EU
Seventh
Framework
Programme
[FP7/2007â2013]
under
Grant
Agreement
no.
278433-ÂâPREDEMICS
and
ERC
Grant
agreement
no.
260864.
C.A.R.
was
supported
by
a
University
Research
Fellowship
from
the
Royal
Society.This is the author accepted manuscript. It is currently under infinite embargo pending publication of the final version