Efficient Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility models with ensemble MCMC methods

In this paper, we introduce efficient ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods for Bayesian computations in the univariate stochastic volatility model. We compare the performance of our ensemble MCMC methods with an improved version of a recent sampler of Kastner and Fruwirth-Schnatter (2014). We show that ensemble samplers are more efficient than this state of the art sampler by a factor of about 3.1, on a data set simulated from the stochastic volatility model. This performance gain is achieved without the ensemble MCMC sampler relying on the assumption that the latent process is linear and Gaussian, unlike the sampler of Kastner and Fruwirth-Schnatter

The gravitationally lensed, luminous infrared galaxy IRAS F10214+4724 observed with XMM-Newton

We report on a short XMM-Newton observation of the gravitationally-lensed, luminous infrared galaxy IRAS F10214+4724 at z=2.3. A faint X-ray source is detected at 4 sigma. The observed 0.5-2 keV (1.7-6.6 keV in the rest-frame) flux is 1.3e-15 erg/s/cm2 and the spectral slope in the rest-frame 1-10 keV band is Gamma~2. These results agree with those obtained from the Chandra X-ray Observatory, given the large uncertainties in both measurements. While possible evidence for excess emission above 5 keV is seen, we suspect this excess might be either spurious or not related to the infrared galaxy.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, New Astronomy in pres

The effect of intergroup competition on intragroup affiliation in primates

Researchers from various disciplines have hypothesized a positive correlation between the level of intergroup contest competition (IGCC) and the evolution of behavioural traits, such as cooperation, altruism and friendship, which promote intragroup affiliation. Empirical support for this hypothesis is, however, scarce and mainly available from humans. We tested whether the level of IGCC affects intragroup affiliation (i.e. intragroup grooming exchange) among male and female nonhuman primates. To quantify intragroup affiliation, we used social network measures and a grooming index. Our measure of IGCC combined frequency of intergroup encounters and proportion of aggressive encounters and was calculated separately for males and females. We ran our analyses on 27 wild groups of primates belonging to 15 species (13 Cercopithecinae, one Colobinae and one Cebinae). Our analyses reveal a clear pattern of correlated evolution between grooming network density and interindividual variation in the number of grooming partners on the one hand and the intensity of IGCC on the other in females, but not males. Thus, our results suggest that the exact nature of the relationship between IGCC and intragroup affiliation is sex specific. These results may be explained by the differential costs and benefits males and females experience during aggressive intergroup confrontations and by sex-specific differences in intragroup affiliation

Coexistence of 'alpha+ 208Pb' cluster structures and single-particle excitations in 212Po

Excited states in 212Po have been populated by alpha transfer using the 208Pb(18O,14C) reaction at 85MeV beam energy and studied with the EUROBALL IV gamma multidetector array. The level scheme has been extended up to ~ 3.2 MeV excitation energy from the triple gamma coincidence data. Spin and parity values of most of the observed states have been assigned from the gamma angular distributions and gamma -gamma angular correlations. Several gamma lines with E(gamma) < 1 MeV have been found to be shifted by the Doppler effect, allowing for the measurements of the associated lifetimes by the DSAM method. The values, found in the range [0.1-0.6] ps, lead to very enhanced E1 transitions. All the emitting states, which have non-natural parity values, are discussed in terms of alpha-208Pb structure. They are in the same excitation-energy range as the states issued from shell-model configurations.Comment: 21 pages, 19 figures, corrected typos, revised arguments in Sect. III

Keeping the focus on children: the challenges of safeguarding children affected by domestic abuse

Safeguarding children affected by domestic abuse is a key responsibility for all professionals working with children and families, but can be difficult to achieve in practice. Despite a policy emphasis on early intervention and child-centred work, limited attention has been paid to how professionals in universal and additional support services address this important area of work. This paper reports findings from qualitative research undertaken in one local authority area in the north of England during 2011 which examines the challenges facing professionals in safeguarding children affected by domestic abuse. Six mixed professional focus groups were held, attended by a total of 23 participants. Discussion focused upon participants’ awareness of domestic abuse, how they assessed and met children and young peoples’ needs, and their views about service provision and safeguarding processes. Data were transcribed and thematic analysis undertaken. The themes presented in this paper – embodied recognition, someone else's job, service gaps, skills deficits, and focusing upon children and young people – illustrate the scope and limitations of professionals’ work with children and young people affected by domestic abuse. Areas for practice improvement are discusse

Lewy Body Dementia Association\u27s Research Centers of Excellence Program: Inaugural Meeting Proceedings.

The first Lewy Body Dementia Association (LBDA) Research Centers of Excellence (RCOE) Investigator\u27s meeting was held on December 14, 2017, in New Orleans. The program was established to increase patient access to clinical experts on Lewy body dementia (LBD), which includes dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and Parkinson\u27s disease dementia (PDD), and to create a clinical trials-ready network. Four working groups (WG) were created to pursue the LBDA RCOE aims: (1) increase access to high-quality clinical care, (2) increase access to support for people living with LBD and their caregivers, (3) increase knowledge of LBD among medical and allied (or other) professionals, and (4) create infrastructure for a clinical trials-ready network as well as resources to advance the study of new therapeutics

Adapted treatment guided by interim PET-CT scan in advanced Hodgkin's lymphoma

BACKGROUND: We tested interim positron-emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) as a measure of early response to chemotherapy in order to guide treatment for patients with advanced Hodgkin's lymphoma. METHODS: Patients with newly diagnosed advanced classic Hodgkin's lymphoma underwent a baseline PETCT scan, received two cycles of ABVD (doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine) chemotherapy, and then underwent an interim PET-CT scan. Images were centrally reviewed with the use of a 5-point scale for PET findings. Patients with negative PET findings after two cycles were randomly assigned to continue ABVD (ABVD group) or omit bleomycin (AVD group) in cycles 3 through 6. Those with positive PET findings after two cycles received BEACOPP (bleomycin, etoposide, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone). Radiotherapy was not recommended for patients with negative findings on interim scans. The primary outcome was the difference in the 3-year progression-free survival rate between randomized groups, a noninferiority comparison to exclude a difference of 5 or more percentage points. RESULTS: A total of 1214 patients were registered; 937 of the 1119 patients (83.7%) who underwent an interim PET-CT scan according to protocol had negative findings. With a median follow-up of 41 months, the 3-year progression-free survival rate and overall survival rate in the ABVD group were 85.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 82.1 to 88.6) and 97.2% (95% CI, 95.1 to 98.4), respectively; the corresponding rates in the AVD group were 84.4% (95% CI, 80.7 to 87.5) and 97.6% (95% CI, 95.6 to 98.7). The absolute difference in the 3-year progression-free survival rate (ABVD minus AVD) was 1.6 percentage points (95% CI, -3.2 to 5.3). Respiratory adverse events were more severe in the ABVD group than in the AVD group. BEACOPP was given to the 172 patients with positive findings on the interim scan, and 74.4% had negative findings on a third PET-CT scan; the 3-year progression-free survival rate was 67.5% and the overall survival rate 87.8%. A total of 62 patients died during the trial (24 from Hodgkin's lymphoma), for a 3-year progression-free survival rate of 82.6% and an overall survival rate of 95.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Although the results fall just short of the specified noninferiority margin, the omission of bleomycin from the ABVD regimen after negative findings on interim PET resulted in a lower incidence of pulmonary toxic effects than with continued ABVD but not significantly lower efficacy