Development of an operational, risk-based approach to surface water flood forecasting

Surface water flooding occurs regularly across England and Wales, especially during the summer months. It is widely acknowledged that surface water flooding presents a particular challenge to forecasters because of the difficulties inherent in forecasting intense localised rainfall and the highly complex runoff and drainage processes which operate at the surface, particularly in urban areas. The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) has a responsibility to provide guidance on the risk of surface water flooding to Category 1 and 2 responders across England and Wales. Consequently, there is the requirement for improved methods for forecasting surface water flood risk and the FFC is currently involved in developing and trialling a novel surface water flood forecasting system, the Surface Water Flooding Hazard Impact Model (SWF HIM). The SWF HIM offers significant advances over existing surface water flood forecasting methods used by the FFC, including provision of a risk-based approach. The SWF HIM links probabilistic runoff forecasts from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology’s Grid-to-Grid model with a library of pre-calculated surface water impact information compiled by the Health and Safety Laboratory. These probabilistic runoff forecasts are combined with impact information to provide a forecast of surface water flood risk at a 1km2 resolution across England and Wales. This presentation outlines the methodology together with some initial results from the trial. The work has been undertaken as part of the UK’s Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) and also benefits from the close working relationship between the Environment Agency and the Met Office through the FFC

Carbon on the Northwest European Shelf: Contemporary Budget and Future Influences

A carbon budget for the northwest European continental shelf seas (NWES) was synthesized using available estimates for coastal, pelagic and benthic carbon stocks and flows. Key uncertainties were identified and the effect of future impacts on the carbon budget were assessed. The water of the shelf seas contains between 210 and 230 Tmol of carbon and absorbs between 1.3 and 3.3 Tmol from the atmosphere annually. Off-shelf transport and burial in the sediments account for 60–100 and 0–40% of carbon outputs from the NWES, respectively. Both of these fluxes remain poorly constrained by observations and resolving their magnitudes and relative importance is a key research priority. Pelagic and benthic carbon stocks are dominated by inorganic carbon. Shelf sediments contain the largest stock of carbon, with between 520 and 1600 Tmol stored in the top 0.1 m of the sea bed. Coastal habitats such as salt marshes and mud flats contain large amounts of carbon per unit area but their total carbon stocks are small compared to pelagic and benthic stocks due to their smaller spatial extent. The large pelagic stock of carbon will continue to increase due to the rising concentration of atmospheric CO2, with associated pH decrease. Pelagic carbon stocks and flows are also likely to be significantly affected by increasing acidity and temperature, and circulation changes but the net impact is uncertain. Benthic carbon stocks will be affected by increasing temperature and acidity, and decreasing oxygen concentrations, although the net impact of these interrelated changes on carbon stocks is uncertain and a major knowledge gap. The impact of bottom trawling on benthic carbon stocks is unique amongst the impacts we consider in that it is widespread and also directly manageable, although its net effect on the carbon budget is uncertain. Coastal habitats are vulnerable to sea level rise and are strongly impacted by management decisions. Local, national and regional actions have the potential to protect or enhance carbon storage, but ultimately global governance, via controls on emissions, has the greatest potential to influence the long-term fate of carbon stocks in the northwestern European continental shelf

What a girl’s gotta do: the labour of the biopolitical celebrity in austerity Britain

This article debunks the wide-spread view that young female celebrities, especially those who rise to fame through reality shows and other forms of media-orchestrated self-exposure, dodge ‘real’ work out of laziness, fatalism and a misguided sense of entitlement. Instead, we argue that becoming a celebrity in a neoliberal economy such as that of the United Kingdom, where austerity measures disproportionately disadvantage the young, women and the poor is not as irregular or exceptional a choice as previously thought, especially since the precariousness of celebrity earning power adheres to the current demands of the neoliberal economy on its workforce. What is more, becoming a celebrity involves different forms of labour that are best described as biopolitical, since such labour fully involves and consumes the human body and its capacities as a living organism. Weight gain and weight loss, pregnancy, physical transformation through plastic surgery, physical symptoms of emotional distress and even illness and death are all photographically documented and supplemented by extended textual commentary, usually with direct input from the celebrity, reinforcing and expanding on the visual content. As well as casting celebrity work as labour, we also maintain that the workings of celebrity should always be examined in the context of wider cultural and real economies

Ninety-day complication rate based on 532 Latarjet procedures in Dutch hospitals with different operation volumes

Background: In this study, we aimed to provide insight into the 90-day complication rates following the Latarjet procedure. Data from 2015 were collected from multiple hospitals in the Netherlands, with different volumes of Latarjet procedures. Our second aim was to examine which patient and surgical factors were associated with complications.Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of 13 hospitals between 2015 and 2022. Data regarding complications within 90 days of Latarjet procedures were extracted. The effect of sex, age, body mass index (BMI), smoking, previous shoulder operations, fixation material, hospital volume, screw size, and operation time on the complication rate was assessed by multivariable logistic regression analysis.Results: Of the 532 included patients, 58 (10.9%) had complications. The most common complications were material failure (n = 19, 3.6%) and nerve injury (n = 13, 2.4%). The risk of complications was lower for male patients than for female patients (odds ratio, 0.40; 95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.77; P = .006). Age, BMI, smoking, previous shoulder operations, type of fixation material, hospital volume, screw size, and operation time were not associated with complications.Conclusion: The 90-day complication rate after the Latarjet procedure was 10.9% and was higher in female patients than in male patients. Age, BMI, smoking, previous shoulder operations, type of fixation material, hospital volume, screw size, and operation time did not affect complication rates. We advise setting up a national registry to prevent under-reporting of complications.</p

Carbon on the Northwest European Shelf: Contemporary Budget and Future Influences

© Copyright © 2020 Legge, Johnson, Hicks, Jickells, Diesing, Aldridge, Andrews, Artioli, Bakker, Burrows, Carr, Cripps, Felgate, Fernand, Greenwood, Hartman, Kröger, Lessin, Mahaffey, Mayor, Parker, Queirós, Shutler, Silva, Stahl, Tinker, Underwood, Van Der Molen, Wakelin, Weston and Williamson. A carbon budget for the northwest European continental shelf seas (NWES) was synthesized using available estimates for coastal, pelagic and benthic carbon stocks and flows. Key uncertainties were identified and the effect of future impacts on the carbon budget were assessed. The water of the shelf seas contains between 210 and 230 Tmol of carbon and absorbs between 1.3 and 3.3 Tmol from the atmosphere annually. Off-shelf transport and burial in the sediments account for 60–100 and 0–40% of carbon outputs from the NWES, respectively. Both of these fluxes remain poorly constrained by observations and resolving their magnitudes and relative importance is a key research priority. Pelagic and benthic carbon stocks are dominated by inorganic carbon. Shelf sediments contain the largest stock of carbon, with between 520 and 1600 Tmol stored in the top 0.1 m of the sea bed. Coastal habitats such as salt marshes and mud flats contain large amounts of carbon per unit area but their total carbon stocks are small compared to pelagic and benthic stocks due to their smaller spatial extent. The large pelagic stock of carbon will continue to increase due to the rising concentration of atmospheric CO2, with associated pH decrease. Pelagic carbon stocks and flows are also likely to be significantly affected by increasing acidity and temperature, and circulation changes but the net impact is uncertain. Benthic carbon stocks will be affected by increasing temperature and acidity, and decreasing oxygen concentrations, although the net impact of these interrelated changes on carbon stocks is uncertain and a major knowledge gap. The impact of bottom trawling on benthic carbon stocks is unique amongst the impacts we consider in that it is widespread and also directly manageable, although its net effect on the carbon budget is uncertain. Coastal habitats are vulnerable to sea level rise and are strongly impacted by management decisions. Local, national and regional actions have the potential to protect or enhance carbon storage, but ultimately global governance, via controls on emissions, has the greatest potential to influence the long-term fate of carbon stocks in the northwestern European continental shelf

Enhancer evolution across 20 mammalian species.

The mammalian radiation has corresponded with rapid changes in noncoding regions of the genome, but we lack a comprehensive understanding of regulatory evolution in mammals. Here, we track the evolution of promoters and enhancers active in liver across 20 mammalian species from six diverse orders by profiling genomic enrichment of H3K27 acetylation and H3K4 trimethylation. We report that rapid evolution of enhancers is a universal feature of mammalian genomes. Most of the recently evolved enhancers arise from ancestral DNA exaptation, rather than lineage-specific expansions of repeat elements. In contrast, almost all liver promoters are partially or fully conserved across these species. Our data further reveal that recently evolved enhancers can be associated with genes under positive selection, demonstrating the power of this approach for annotating regulatory adaptations in genomic sequences. These results provide important insight into the functional genetics underpinning mammalian regulatory evolution.We thank Stephen Watt, Frances Connor, the CRUK-CI Genomics and Bioinformatics cores, Biological Resources Unit (Matthew Clayton), Margaret Brown (West Yorkshire bat hospital), Julie E. Horvath (North Carolina Central University), and Chris Dillingham (University of Cardiff) for technical assistance; Matthieu Muffato for assistance with whole-genome alignments; Claudia Kutter, Gordon Brown, Christine Feig, and Christina Ernst for useful comments and discussions, and the EBI systems team for management of computational resources. This research was supported by Cancer Research UK (D.V., D.T.O.), the European Molecular Biology Laboratory (C.B., P.F.), the Wellcome Trust (WT095908) (P.F.) and (WT098051) (P.F., D.T.O.), the European Research Council, EMBO Young Investigator Programme (D.T.O.), the National Science Foundation (0744979) (T.J.P.), NIH (P40 OD010965, R01 OD010980, R37 MH060233) (A.J.J.) and MRC (U117588498) (J.M.A.T.). Cetacean samples were collected by the UK Cetacean Strandings Investigation Programme, funded by Defra and the Governments of Scotland and Wales.This is the final version. It originally appeared at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867415000070

Creating testable questions in practical conservation: a process and 100 questions

It is now clear that the routine embedding of experiments into conservation practice is essential for creating reasonably comprehensive evidence of the effectiveness of actions. However, an important barrier is the stage of identifying testable questions that are both useful but also realistic to carry out without a major research project. We identified approaches for generating such suitable questions. A team of 24 participants crowdsourced suggestions, resulting in a list of a hundred possible tests of actions

EVER-EST: the platform allowing scientists to cross-fertilize and cross-validate data

Over recent decades large amounts of data about our Planet have become available. If this information could be easily discoverable, accessible and properly exploited, preserved and shared, it would potentially represent a wealth of information for a whole spectrum of stakeholders: from scientists and researchers to the highest level of decision and policy makers. By creating a Virtual Research Environment (VRE) tailored to the needs of Earth Science (ES) communities, the EVER-EST (http://ever-est.eu) project provides a range of both generic and domain specific data analysis and management services to support a dynamic approach to collaborative research. EVER-EST provides the means to overcome existing barriers to sharing of Earth Science data and information allowing research teams to discover, access, share and process heterogeneous data, algorithms, results and experiences within and across their communities, including those domains beyond Earth Science. EVER-EST is funded by the European Commission H2020 programme for three years starting in October 2015. The project is led by the European Space Agency (ESA) and involves some of the major European Earth Science data providers/users including NERC, DLR, INGV, CNR and SatCEN . The paper presents specific aspects of this collaboration platform in terms of infrastructure and implemented paradigms. Some case studies on cross-fertilization analysis are documented in order to show the process for creating knowledge and new data starting from collected data from different sources (e.g. from remote and social sensing). The paper concludes with few future outcomes