MCMC, likelihood estimation and identifiability problems in DLM models

In this article we deal with the identification problem within the Dynamic Linear Models family and show that using Bayesian estimation procedures we can deal better with these problems in comparison with the traditional Maximum Likelihood estimation approach. Using a Bayesian approach supported by Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we obtain the same results as the Maximum likelihood approach in the case of identifiable models, but in the case of non-identifiable models, we were able to estimate the parameters that are identifiable, as well as to pinpoint the troublesome parameters. Assuming a Bayesian approach, we also discuss the computational aspects, namely the ongoing discussion between single- versus multi-move samplers. Our aim is to give a clear example of the benefits of adopting a Bayesian approach to the estimation of high dimensional statistical models.Bayesian Statistics, DLM Models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Maximum Likelihood, Model Identification.

Ciência, Cultura, Teorias, Práticas, Objetos, Sentidos, Valores

Este artigo reflete, e corporiza ele mesmo, uma intersecção: entre ciência e cultura; entre experiência, experimentação, sentidos, sentido e significado; entre a pluralidade de argumentos sustentadores da expressão motriz e matriz ‘culturas experimentais’. Sustentando a necessidade de se transcender uma abordagem essencialista de ‘cultura’ ede transgredir delimitações dos conceitos ‘experiência’ e ‘experimentação’, os autores recorrem à ideia de ‘paisagem’ para designar a quebra dos dualismos teoria-prática e ação-pensamento. Isto dita o repensar das fronteiras entre linguagens disciplinares, em direção a uma ‘ecologia conceptual’que contribua para perspetivas mais amplas e integradoras dos campos educativo, profissional e científico-artístico-cultural.This article reflects, and embodies itself, an intersection: between science and culture; between experience, experimentation, senses, sense and meaning; between the pluralityof arguments that may support the motive andmatricialexpr ession‘experimental cultures’. Sustaining the need to transcend an essencialistic approach to ‘culture’ and to transgressdelimitationsof the concepts ‘experience’ and ‘experimentation’, theauthors resort to the ideaof ‘landscape’ to name the fracture of the dualisms theory-practice and action-though. This leads to rethinking the borders between disciplinary languages, towards a ‘conceptual ecology’that contributes to wider and integrated perspectives of the educational, professional and scientific-artistic-cultural fields

De processos interorganizacionais CBPEL para processos BPEL

A Common Business Process Execution Language (CBPEL) é uma nova especificação para a descrição de processos interorganizacionais descritos de forma global e única, e baseados em Web Services. A grande vantagem da utilização de uma descrição global e única consiste na possibilidade da geração automática dos processos das organizações participantes. Essa automatização tem por principal objectivo a redução do risco da concepção de processos interorganizacionais inconsistentes. Contudo até este momento não existe nenhum trabalho que apresente uma metodologia para a geração automática dos processos participantes. Este trabalho visa precisamente preencher essa lacuna promovendo uma reflexão sobre essa transformação, e apresentando um conjunto de regras para a sua automatização. A linguagem escolhida como destinatário da transformação foi a Business Process Execution Language (CBPEL) uma vez que é a linguagem base da linguagem CBPEL.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Dirac's theorem for random regular graphs

We prove a `resilience' version of Dirac's theorem in the setting of random regular graphs. More precisely, we show that, whenever $d$ is sufficiently large compared to $\varepsilon>0$, a.a.s. the following holds: let $G'$ be any subgraph of the random $n$-vertex $d$-regular graph $G_{n,d}$ with minimum degree at least $(1/2+\varepsilon)d$. Then $G'$ is Hamiltonian. This proves a conjecture of Ben-Shimon, Krivelevich and Sudakov. Our result is best possible: firstly, the condition that $d$ is large cannot be omitted, and secondly, the minimum degree bound cannot be improved.Comment: Final accepted version, to appear in Combinatorics, Probability & Computin

Aplicação de protocolos de actuação em caso de emergência em estabelecimentos prestadores de cuidados de saúde

Tese de mestrado. Engenharia Segurança e Higiene Ocupacionais. Universidade do Porto. Faculdade de Engenharia. 201

Supply Chain (micro)TMS development

Project Work presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Information Systems and Technologies ManagementThe rise of technology across many verticals has necessitated the company’s move to digitalization. Despite “XPTO” company a well know player on the retail and success on e‐commerce internal market, they aimed at the strategy of continuous innovation to drive business growth and strengthen their position as a premium brand. They decided to move forward into digitalism inside cloud based solutions to get all the advantages of microservices architecture: optimize logistics and supply chain management, speed up the workflow and maximize service efficiency. An agile organization is not achieved purely by shifting the focus from traditional functional/ technological oriented organizations. The new way to organize teams must reflect all the principles and right segregations of roles, which will be the most immediate and visible disruption and cutover from the traditional way of managing the IT. In this project we aim to use agile framework with development based in house cloud microservice solution for a (micro)TMS solution/system that address the immediate needs imposed by the market in order to use it has competitive advantage

A benefit dependency network for shadow IT adoption

Shadow information technology (SIT) revolves around systems that are hidden but still are managed by the same business entities. It consists on the use of devices, software, systems and applications without information technology (IT) department approval. Employees use IT without the knowledge of the IT department and this creates a gap in communication, as the IT department looses the knowledge of the reality within the company. However there are benefits envolved. In order to take advantage of those benefits, change has to be implemented in the way business activities are handled. The benefits should be a direct effect of change, of the difference between the ongoing and suggested way that activities are done and the efficiency and effectiveness to which people deliver on their daily tasks. The objective of this study is to propose a benefit dependency network (BDN) for SIT, through its concepts sinthetize our findings and specify connections between SIT practices and its benefits. With an understanding of the BDN and the benefits of SIT it is easier to have a better notion of the implications and the factors involved in order to assist in the decision making process. Either an organization wants to reach inovation, increase revenue, retain clients, the BDN helps with analysis and selection and is something organizations should take seriously, as it is essential to have knowledge on what the benefits there are and how they can be reached.Shadow information technology (SIT) aborda sistemas que estão ocultos mas são geridos e utilizados pelas diversas entidades de negócio. Consiste no uso de dispositivos, software, sistemas e aplicações sem a aprovação do departamento de informática – information technology (IT). A maioria dos trabalhadores utiliza este tipo de aplicações sem o conhecimento do departamento de IT e isto cria uma lacuna na comunicação, fazendo com que o departamento de IT perca a real noção da situação da companhia, no entanto existem benefícios envolvidos. De forma a tomar vantagem desses benefícios, deve ser implementada uma mudança na maneira em que as actividades de negócio são realizadas. Os benefícios devem ser efeito directo de mudança, da diferença entre o modelo corrente e sugerido de fazer o negócio, assim como na eficiência e eficácia com que o staff desenvolve o seu trabalho com sucesso. O objectivo deste estudo é propor uma benefit dependency network (BDN) para shadow IT e, através dos seus conceitos sintetizar as nossas descobertas e especificar conexões entre práticas de SIT e seus benefícios. Com percepção da BDN e dos benefícios de SIT é possível ter uma melhor noção das implicações e factores envolvidos, facilitando assim o processo de tomada de decisão. Quer a organização queira atingir a inovação, aumentar lucros, reter clientes, a BDN facilita no processo de análise, de escolha e deve ser algo que as organizações devem levar a sério pois é essencial haver conhecimento sobre que benefícios existem e como os atingir

The Tragedy of the Anti-Commons: A New Problem. An Application to the Fisheries.

The operation and management of common property resources (“the commons”) have been exhaustively examined in economics and political science, both in formal analysis and in practical applications. “Tragedy of the Commons” metaphor helps to explain why people overuse shared resources. On the other side, Anti-Commons Theory is a recent theory presented by scientists to explain several situations about new Property Rights concerns. An “anti-commons” problem arises when there are multiple rights to exclude. Little attention has been given to the setting where more than one person is assigned with exclusion rights, which may be exercised. We analyze the “anti-commons” problem in which resources are inefficiently underutilized rather than over-utilized as in the familiar commons setting. In fact, these two problems are symmetrical in several aspects.Anti-Commons Theory; Property Rights