Quantifying extreme behaviour in geomagnetic activity

Understanding the extremes in geomagnetic activity is an important component in understanding just how severe conditions can become in the terrestrial space environment. Extreme activity also has consequences for technological systems. On the ground, extreme geomagnetic behavior has an impact on navigation and position accuracy and the operation of power grids and pipeline networks. We therefore use a number of decades of one-minute mean magnetic data from magnetic observatories in Europe, together with the technique of extreme value statistics, to provide a preliminary exploration of the extremes in magnetic field variations and their one-minute rates of change. These extremes are expressed in terms of the variations that might be observed every 100 and 200 years in the horizontal strength and in the declination of the field. We find that both measured and extrapolated extreme values generally increase with geomagnetic latitude (as might be expected), though there is a marked maximum in estimated extreme levels between about 53 and 62 degrees north. At typical midlatitude European observatories (55–60 degrees geomagnetic latitude), compass variations may reach approximately 3–8 degrees/minute, and horizontal field changes may reach 1000–4000 nT/minute, in one magnetic storm once every 100 years. For storm return periods of 200 years the equivalent figures are 4–11 degrees/minute and 1000–6000 nT/minute

Geolectric field measurement, modelling and validation during geomagnetic storms in the UK

Significant geoelectric fields are produced by the interaction of rapidly varying magnetic fields with the conductive Earth, particularly during intense geomagnetic activity. Though usually harmless, large or sustained geoelectric fields can damage grounded infrastructure such as high-voltage transformers and pipelines via geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). A key aspect of understanding the effects of space weather on grounded infrastructure is through the spatial and temporal variation of the geoelectric field. Globally, there are few long-term monitoring sites of the geoelectric field, so in 2012 measurements of the horizontal surface field were started at Lerwick, Eskdalemuir and Hartland observatories in the UK. Between 2012 and 2020, the maximum value of the geoelectric field observed was around 1 V/km in Lerwick, 0.5 V/km in Eskdalemuir and 0.1 V/km in Hartland during the March 2015 storm. These long-term observations also allow comparisons with models of the geoelectric field to be made. We use the measurements to compute magnetotelluric impedance transfer functions at each observatory for periods from 20 to 30,000 s. These are then used to predict the geoelectric field at the observatory sites during selected storm times that match the recorded fields very well (correlation around 0.9). We also compute geoelectric field values from a thin-sheet model of Britain, accounting for the diverse geological and bathymetric island setting. We find the thin-sheet model captures the peak and phase of the band-passed geoelectric field reasonably well, with linear correlation of around 0.4 in general. From these two modelling approaches, we generate geoelectric field values for historic storms (March 1989 and October 2003) and find the estimates of past peak geoelectric fields of up to 1.75 V/km in Eskdalemuir. However, evidence from high voltage transformer GIC measurements during these storms suggests these estimates are likely to represent an underestimate of the true value

A national appraisal of haemodialysis vascular access provision in Scotland

Purpose: Published registry data demonstrate longstanding variation in the utilisation of different vascular access (VA) modalities between Scottish renal units; this may reflect different clinical processes between centres. A comprehensive appraisal was undertaken to understand the processes underpinning VA creation and maintenance across Scotland. Methods: A mixed methods approach was utilised. Fifty-two semi-structured interviews were conducted with patients and clinicians in all ten, adult and paediatric, Scottish renal units. Interview transcripts were subjected to thematic analysis. Clinical activity data were prospectively collected for six weeks, and correlated with registry data. Results: VA accounts for a large clinical workload. There was significant inter-centre variation in the utilisation of different VA modalities, and patients described frustrating, dissatisfying experiences. VA creation and maintenance pathways functioned best when nephrologists, surgeons and radiologists were co-located on the same campus with close multi-disciplinary working, protected clinical time, and proactive VA maintenance. No unit routinely measured or discussed procedure outcomes or strategic aspects of their service. Conclusions: Varied clinical outcomes reflected varied clinical processes. Optimised clinical pathways, staff education and measurement of clinical outcomes may improve VA service quality and facilitate safer, more effective, patient-centred care

The beginning of time? Evidence for catastrophic drought in Baringo in the early nineteenth century

New developments in the collection of palaeo-data over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate and environmental history in eastern Africa. This article utilises instrumental and proxy evidence of historical lake-level fluctuations from Baringo and Bogoria, along with other Rift Valley lakes, to document the timing and magnitude of hydroclimate variability at decadal to century time scales since 1750. These data allow us to construct a record of past climate variation not only for the Baringo basin proper, but also across a sizable portion of central and northern Kenya. This record is then set alongside historical evidence, from oral histories gathered amongst the peoples of northern Kenya and the Rift Valley and from contemporary observations recorded by travellers through the region, to offer a reinterpretation of human activity and its relationship to environmental history in the nineteenth century. The results reveal strong evidence of a catastrophic drought in the early nineteenth century, the effects of which radically alters our historical understanding of the character of settlement, mobility and identity within the Baringo–Bogoria basin

Current Single Event Effects Compendium of Candidate Spacecraft Electronics for NASA

We present the results of single event effects (SEE) testing and analysis investigating the effects of radiation on electronics. This paper is a summary of test results

Re-evaluation of putative rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility genes in the post-genome wide association study era and hypothesis of a key pathway underlying susceptibility

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an archetypal, common, complex autoimmune disease with both genetic and environmental contributions to disease aetiology. Two novel RA susceptibility loci have been reported from recent genome-wide and candidate gene association studies. We, therefore, investigated the evidence for association of the STAT4 and TRAF1/C5 loci with RA using imputed data from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC). No evidence for association of variants mapping to the TRAF1/C5 gene was detected in the 1860 RA cases and 2930 control samples tested in that study. Variants mapping to the STAT4 gene did show evidence for association (rs7574865, P = 0.04). Given the association of the TRAF1/C5 locus in two previous large case–control series from populations of European descent and the evidence for association of the STAT4 locus in the WTCCC study, single nucleotide polymorphisms mapping to these loci were tested for association with RA in an independent UK series comprising DNA from >3000 cases with disease and >3000 controls and a combined analysis including the WTCCC data was undertaken. We confirm association of the STAT4 and the TRAF1/C5 loci with RA bringing to 5 the number of confirmed susceptibility loci. The effect sizes are less than those reported previously but are likely to be a more accurate reflection of the true effect size given the larger size of the cohort investigated in the current study

Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure

Extreme space weather due to coronal mass ejections has the potential to cause considerable disruption to the global economy by damaging the transformers required to operate electricity transmission infrastructure. However, expert opinion is split between the potential outcome being one of a temporary regional blackout and of a more prolonged event. The temporary blackout scenario proposed by some is expected to last the length of the disturbance, with normal operations resuming after a couple of days. On the other hand, others have predicted widespread equipment damage with blackout scenarios lasting months. In this paper we explore the potential costs associated with failure in the electricity transmission infrastructure in the U.S. due to extreme space weather, focusing on daily economic loss. This provides insight into the direct and indirect economic consequences of how an extreme space weather event may affect domestic production, as well as other nations, via supply chain linkages. By exploring the sensitivity of the blackout zone, we show that on average the direct economic cost incurred from disruption to electricity represents only 49% of the total potential macroeconomic cost. Therefore, if indirect supply chain costs are not considered when undertaking cost-benefit analysis of space weather forecasting and mitigation investment, the total potential macroeconomic cost is not correctly represented. The paper contributes to our understanding of the economic impact of space weather, as well as making a number of key methodological contributions relevant for future work. Further economic impact assessment of this threat must consider multiday, multiregional event

Phylogenomics Reveals Ancient Gene Tree Discordance in the Amphibian Tree of Life

Molecular phylogenies have yielded strong support for many parts of the amphibian Tree of Life, but poor support for the resolution of deeper nodes, including relationships among families and orders. To clarify these relationships, we provide a phylogenomic perspective on amphibian relationships by developing a taxon-specific Anchored Hybrid Enrichment protocol targeting hundreds of conserved exons which are effective across the class. After obtaining data from 220 loci for 286 species (representing 94% of the families and 44% of the genera), we estimate a phylogeny for extant amphibians and identify gene tree–species tree conflict across the deepest branches of the amphibian phylogeny. We perform locus-by-locus genealogical interrogation of alternative topological hypotheses for amphibian monophyly, focusing on interordinal relationships. We find that phylogenetic signal deep in the amphibian phylogeny varies greatly across loci in a manner that is consistent with incomplete lineage sorting in the ancestral lineage of extant amphibians. Our results overwhelmingly support amphibian monophyly and a sister relationship between frogs and salamanders, consistent with the Batrachia hypothesis. Species tree analyses converge on a small set of topological hypotheses for the relationships among extant amphibian families. These results clarify several contentious portions of the amphibian Tree of Life, which in conjunction with a set of vetted fossil calibrations, support a surprisingly younger timescale for crown and ordinal amphibian diversification than previously reported. More broadly, our study provides insight into the sources, magnitudes, and heterogeneity of support across loci in phylogenomic data sets

The Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey I: Design and First Results

The Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS) is the first large-area survey to be conducted with the full 36-antenna Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope. RACS will provide a shallow model of the ASKAP sky that will aid the calibration of future deep ASKAP surveys. RACS will cover the whole sky visible from the ASKAP site in Western Australia, and will cover the full ASKAP band of $700-1800$ MHz. The RACS images are generally deeper than the existing NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS) and Sydney University Molonglo Sky Survey (SUMSS) radio surveys and have better spatial resolution. All RACS survey products will be public, including radio images (with $\sim 15$ arcsecond resolution) and catalogues of about three million source components with spectral index and polarisation information. In this paper, we present a description of the RACS survey and the first data release of 903 images covering the sky south of declination $+41^\circ$ made over a 288 MHz band centred at 887.5 MHz.Comment: 24 pages, 17 figures, 4 tables. For associated data see https://data.csiro.au/collections/domain/casdaObservation/results/PRAS110%20-%20The%20Rapid%20ASKAP%20Continuu

Stem cell-derived porcine macrophages as a new platform for studying host-pathogen interactions

BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases of farmed and wild animals pose a recurrent threat to food security and human health. The macrophage, a key component of the innate immune system, is the first line of defence against many infectious agents and plays a major role in shaping the adaptive immune response. However, this phagocyte is a target and host for many pathogens. Understanding the molecular basis of interactions between macrophages and pathogens is therefore crucial for the development of effective strategies to combat important infectious diseases. RESULTS: We explored how porcine pluripotent stem cells (PSCs) can provide a limitless in vitro supply of genetically and experimentally tractable macrophages. Porcine PSC-derived macrophages (PSCdMs) exhibited molecular and functional characteristics of ex vivo primary macrophages and were productively infected by pig pathogens, including porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and African swine fever virus (ASFV), two of the most economically important and devastating viruses in pig farming. Moreover, porcine PSCdMs were readily amenable to genetic modification by CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing applied either in parental stem cells or directly in the macrophages by lentiviral vector transduction. CONCLUSIONS: We show that porcine PSCdMs exhibit key macrophage characteristics, including infection by a range of commercially relevant pig pathogens. In addition, genetic engineering of PSCs and PSCdMs affords new opportunities for functional analysis of macrophage biology in an important livestock species. PSCs and differentiated derivatives should therefore represent a useful and ethical experimental platform to investigate the genetic and molecular basis of host-pathogen interactions in pigs, and also have wider applications in livestock. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12915-021-01217-8