The Vaiont landslide : re-assessment of the evidence leads to rejection of the consensus

There appears to be a clear general consensus in the literature regarding four critical issues that define the problem of the October 1963 Vaiont landslide and its behaviour that are central to the disaster: (1) the 1963 failure was a reactivation of an ancient landslide; (2) failure took place along thin clay seams (already at residual strength); (3) the sliding surface had a ‘chair’ shape with a (sub)horizontal base; and (4) failure was triggered by inundation of the toe of the slide mass by rising reservoir levels. The key to understanding the Vaiont landslide is the failure surface geometry, which was controlled by the structural geology. It now appears that the so-called chair structure (that was assumed to define the shape of the failure surface) does not exist, and without it, the first consensual point is untenable, and the fourth may not contain the whole truth. We have systematically re-examined the published evidence and undertaken our own new research in order to test the logical and geotechnical validity of the four elements of the consensus. Glacial processes can account for the pre-failure morphology of the landslide site; the clay seams must therefore have been at peak shear strength as there was no ancient landslide. Tectonic processes can account for the failure surface geometry, which does not have a ‘chair’ shape, as well as small-scale structures; and rainfall appears to have been an essential element in the initiation and development of the landslide. Our findings largely contradict the consensus position and thus form the basis of a new overarching hypothesis for the landslide that should account for all of the observed and known features, events and data

New, simplified and improved interpretation of the Vaiont landslide mechanics

Both the occurrence and behaviour of the Vaiont landslide have not been satisfactorily explained previously because of difficulties arising from the assumption that the failure surface was ‘chair’ shaped. It is now known that there was no ‘chair’, which means that the 1963 landslide could not have been a reactivated ancient landslide because the residual strength of the clay interbeds would have been insufficient for stability prior to 1963. Furthermore, the moderately translational geometry reduces the influence of reservoir-induced groundwater and hence of submergence. Standard stability analyses now show that prior to 1960, the average shear strength must have significantly exceeded the peak shear strength of the clay interbeds known to have formed the majority of the failure surface. Three-dimensional stability analyses confirm these results and show that at the time of the first significant movements in 1960, the rising reservoir level had a negligible effect on the Factor of Safety. According to these results, the Vaiont landslide was most likely initiated by pore water pressures associated with transient rainfall-induced ‘perched’ groundwater above the clay layers, in combination with a smaller than hitherto assumed effect of reservoir impounding, then developed by brittle crack propagation within the clay beds, thus displaying progressive failure. Further, very heavy rainfall accelerated the process, possibly due to reservoir-induced groundwater impeding drainage of the rainwater, until the limestone beds at the northeast margin failed. With the shear strength suddenly reduced to residual throughout, the entire mass was released and was able to accelerate as observed

Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in COVID-19.

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present1, and drives mortality2, in the critical illness caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development3. Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units. We have identified and replicated the following new genome-wide significant associations: on chromosome 12q24.13 (rs10735079, P = 1.65 × 10-8) in a gene cluster that encodes antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2 and OAS3); on chromosome 19p13.2 (rs74956615, P = 2.3 × 10-8) near the gene that encodes tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2); on chromosome 19p13.3 (rs2109069, P = 3.98 ×  10-12) within the gene that encodes dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9); and on chromosome 21q22.1 (rs2236757, P = 4.99 × 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identified potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomization, we found evidence that low expression of IFNAR2, or high expression of TYK2, are associated with life-threatening disease; and transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte-macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe COVID-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in COVID-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. However, large-scale randomized clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice

Landslide investigations during pandemic restrictions : initial assessments of recent peat landslides in Ireland

Landslides involving peat are relatively common in Ireland, upland areas of Great Britain and subantarctic islands. Bogflows and bog slides are less common types of peat failure and almost unknown outside Ireland. Unusually, three of these occurred in 2020 including one bogflow at a windfarm that gained much adverse media attention, and a small but damaging peat slide was also reported. The aim of this paper is to determine the extent to which the new bog slide and bogflows are consistent with previous examples in terms of their contexts, characteristics and possible causes, particularly relating to commercial forestry operations. Aerial video footage of all three landslides obtained by local people using drones, and ground-based footage of one of them in progress, allowed a detailed examination of their characteristics and contexts to be made despite the global travel and activity restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The windfarm bogflow appears to have resulted from removal of toe support by an earlier peat flow that was itself probably caused by construction of an access road; the other two landslides were most likely triggered by rainfall. All three are consistent with previous examples of their respective types in their general characteristics and appear to be associated with well-known causal factors including hydrological, topographic and/or forestry influences. Forestry operations probably contributed to the occurrence of two of the landslides and restricted the expansion of two of them

Mass movements and conservation management in Malta

Mass movements at an environmentally sensitive but very popular leisure site in Malta were investigated in order to establish whether they were naturally occurring or whether they might in some way have resulted from the chronic long-term degradation of the site. Field surveys of the slopes were undertaken and physical and geotechnical properties of the Maltese Blue Clay Formation, which forms the slopes, were determined from laboratory analysis of samples. Slope stability was analysed using the infinite slope model; analysis of two 1996 mudflows indicates that these mass movements are natural processes. A landslide hazard analysis based on this finding suggested that whilst future mudflows constitute a small hazard, the risk of harm arising from them is even smaller. The implications of this for conservation management of the site are important, given the objective of restoring and then maintaining a natural ecological environment at the site. The mudflows are integral components of this natural environment, shaping the landscape and the ecological communities. The provision of information to visitors constitutes a valuable education and management tool that should further reduce the risk of harm and promote responsible recreational use of the site. However, it is essential that managers understand the nature of all relevant components of an environmentally sensitive site, in order that appropriate management strategies are devised. In the case discussed, these might include avoiding unnecessary future intervention on the clay slopes