Combination of mesoscale and synoptic mechanisms for triggering an isolated thunderstorm: Observational case study of CSIP IOP 1

Copyright @ 2007 AMSAn isolated thunderstorm formed in the southern United Kingdom on 15 June 2005 and moved through the area where a large number of observational instruments were deployed as part of the Convective Storm Initiation Project. Earlier, a convergence line had formed downstream of Devon in the southwest of the United Kingdom in a southwesterly airflow, along which a series of light showers had formed. The depth of these showers was limited by a capping inversion, or lid, at around 2.5 km. The deep thunderstorm convection developed from one of these showers when the convection broke through the lid and ascended up to the next inversion, associated with a tropopause fold at around 6 km. A series of clear-air reflectivity RHIs are used to map the height of the capping inversion and its lifting resulting from the ascent along the convergence line. The origins of the lid are tracked back to some descent from the midtroposphere along dry adiabats. The strength of the lid was weaker along a northwest-to-southeast-oriented region located behind an overrunning upper cold front. The transition from shallow to deep convection occurred where this region with a weaker lid intersected the region with a raised lid, oriented southwest to northeast, downstream of Devon. A very high resolution forecast model that is being developed by the Met Office predicted the isolated thunderstorm successfully. This success depended on the accurate representation of the following two scales: the synoptic-scale and the surface-forced mesoscale convergence line. The interaction between these scales localized the convection sufficiently in space and time for the initiation and subsequent development to be highly predictable despite the relatively poor representation in the model of processes at the cloud scale.This work was funded from the Natural Environment Research Council and the Met Office National Meteorology Programme

Observations of the variation in aerosol and cloud microphysics along the 20°s transect on 13 november 2008 during VOCALS-REx

Observations are presented of the structure of the marine boundary layer (MBL) in the southeastern Pacific made with the U.K. BAe 146 aircraft on 13 November 2008 as it flew at a variety of altitudes along 20°S between the coast of Chile and a buoy 950 km offshore during the Variability of American Monsoon Systems (VAMOS) Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS) Regional Experiment (REx). The purpose of the study is to determine the variations along the 20°S transect in the clouds and boundary layer on this particular day as compared to the typical structure determined from the composite studies. The aircraft flew in three regions on this day: relatively continuous thick stratocumulus clouds, open cells, and closed cells. Results show three particular features. First, the results of the cloud microphysics are consistent with the typical behavior showing a decrease in aerosol particles by a factor of 3-4, and a decrease in cloud droplet number concentration westward from the coast from about 200 to 100 cm or less with a corresponding increase in the concentration of drizzle drops with a maximum in open cells. Sulfate was dominant in the aerosol mass. Second, there was evidence of decoupling of the marine boundary layer that coincided with a change in the cloud type from stratiform to convective. The case differs from the average found in VOCALS in that the decoupling is not consistent with the deepening-warming idea. Precipitation is thought to possibly be the cause instead, suggesting that aerosol might play a controlling role in the cloud-boundary layer structure. Finally, cold pools were observed in the MBL from the dropsonde data

Aircraft and ground measurements of dust aerosols over the west African coast in summer 2015 during ICE-D and AER-D

During the summertime, dust from the Sahara can be efficiently transported westwards within the Saharan air layer (SAL). This can lead to high aerosol loadings being observed above a relatively clean marine boundary layer (MBL) in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. These dust layers can impart significant radiative effects through strong visible and IR light absorption and scattering, and can also have indirect impacts by altering cloud properties. The processing of the dust aerosol can result in changes in both direct and indirect radiative effects, leading to significant uncertainty in climate prediction in this region. During August 2015, measurements of aerosol and cloud properties were conducted off the coast of west Africa as part of the Ice in Cloud Experiment - Dust (ICE-D) and AERosol properties - Dust (AER-D) campaigns. Observations were obtained over a 4-week period using the UK Facility for Atmospheric Airborne Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146 aircraft based on Santiago Island, Cabo Verde. Ground-based observations were collected from Praia (14∘57′ N, 23∘29′ W; 100 m a.s.l.), also located on Santiago Island. The dust in the SAL was mostly sampled in situ at altitudes of 2-4 km, and the potential dust age was estimated by backward trajectory analysis. The particle mass concentration (at diameter d = 0.1-20 µm) decreased with transport time. Mean effective diameter (Deff) for supermicron SAL dust (d = 1-20 µm) was found to be 5-6 µm regardless of dust age, whereas submicron Deff (d = 0.1-1 µm) showed a decreasing trend with longer transport. For the first time, an airborne laser-induced incandescence instrument (the single particle soot photometer - SP2) was deployed to measure the hematite content of dust. For the Sahel-influenced dust in the SAL, the observed hematite mass fraction of dust (FHm) was found to be anti-correlated with the single scattering albedo (SSA, λ = 550 nm, for particles d < 2.5 µm); as potential dust age increased from 2 to 7 days, FHm increased from 2.5 to 4.5 %, SSA decreased from 0.97 to 0.93 and the derived imaginary part (k) of the refractive index at 550 nm increased from 0.0015 to 0.0035. However, the optical properties of Sahara-influenced plumes (not influenced by the Sahel) were independent of dust age and hematite content with SSA ∼ 0.95 and k ∼ 0.0028. This indicates that the absorbing component of dust may be source dependent, or that gravitational settling of larger particles may lead to a higher fraction of more absorbing clay-iron aggregates at smaller sizes. Mie calculation using the measured size distribution and size-resolved refractive indices of the absorbing components (black carbon and hematite) reproduces the measured SSA to within ±0.02 for SAL dust by assuming a goethite ∕ hematite mass ratio of 2. Overall, hematite and goethite constituted 40-80 % of the absorption for particles d < 2.5 µm, and black carbon (BC) contributed 10-37 %. This highlights the importance of size-dependent composition in determining the optical properties of dust and also the contribution from BC within dust plumes

Outcomes and endpoints reported in studies of pulmonary exacerbations in people with cystic fibrosis: A systematic review

BackgroundThere is no consensus about which outcomes should be evaluated in studies of pulmonary exacerbations in people with cystic fibrosis (CF). Outcomes used for evaluation should be meaningful; that is, they should capture how people feel, function or survive and be acknowledged as important to people with CF, or should be reliable surrogates of those outcomes. We aimed to summarise the outcomes and corresponding endpoints which have been reported in studies of pulmonary exacerbations, and to identify those which are most likely to be meaningful.MethodsA PROSPERO registered systematic review (CRD42020151785) was conducted in Medline, Embase and Cochrane from inception until July 2020. Registered trials were also included.Results144 studies met the inclusion criteria. A wide range of outcomes and corresponding endpoints were reported. Death, QoL and many patient-reported outcomes are likely to be meaningful as they directly capture how people feel, function or survive. Forced expiratory volume in 1-second [FEV1] is a validated surrogate of risk of death and reduced QoL. The extent of structural lung disease has also been correlated with lung function, pulmonary exacerbations and risk of death. Since no evidence of a correlation between airway microbiology or biomarkers with clinically meaningful outcomes was found, the value of these as surrogates was unclear.ConclusionsDeath, QoL, patient-reported outcomes, FEV1, and structural lung changes were identified as outcomes that are most likely to be meaningful. Development of a core outcome set in collaboration with stakeholders including people with CF is recommended

Protocol for establishing a core outcome set for evaluation in studies of pulmonary exacerbations in people with cystic fibrosis

Introduction: Pulmonary exacerbations are associated with increased morbidity and mortality in people with cystic fibrosis (CF). There is no consensus about which outcomes should be evaluated in studies of pulmonary exacerbations or how these outcomes should be measured. Outcomes of importance to people with lived experience of the disease are frequently omitted or inconsistently reported in studies, which limits the value of such studies for informing practice and policy. To better standardise outcome reporting and measurement, we aim to develop a core outcome set for studies of pulmonary exacerbations in people with CF (COS-PEX) and consensus recommendations for measurement of core outcomes. Methods and analysis: Preliminary work for development of COS-PEX has been reported, including (1) systematic reviews of outcomes and methods for measurement reported in existing studies of pulmonary exacerbations; (2) workshops with people affected by CF within Australia; and (3) a Bayesian knowledge expert elicitation workshop with health professionals to ascertain outcomes of importance. Here we describe a protocol for the additional stages required for COS-PEX development and consensus methods for measurement of core outcomes. These include (1) an international two-round online Delphi survey and (2) consensus workshops to review and endorse the proposed COS-PEX and to agree with methods for measurement. Ethics and dissemination: National mutual ethics scheme approval has been provided by the Child and Adolescent Health Service Human Research Ethics Committee (RGS 4926). Results will be disseminated via consumer and research networks and peer-reviewed publications. This study is registered with the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials database

Vascular function assessed with cardiovascular magnetic resonance predicts survival in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Increased arterial stiffness is associated with mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) permits assessment of the central arteries to measure aortic function.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied the relationship between central haemodynamics and outcome using CMR in 144 chronic kidney disease patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate <15 ml/min (110 on dialysis). Aortic distensibilty and volumetric arterial strain were calculated from cross sectional aortic volume and pulse pressure measured during the scan.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Median follow up after the scan was 24 months. There were no significant differences in aortic distensibilty or aortic volumetric arterial strain between pre-dialysis and dialysis patients. Aortic distensibilty and volumetric arterial strain negatively correlated with age. Aortic distensibilty and volumetric arterial strain were lower in diabetics, patients with ischaemic heart disease and peripheral vascular disease. During follow up there were 20 deaths. Patients who died had lower aortic distensibilty than survivors. In a survival analysis, diabetes, systolic blood pressure and aortic distensibilty were independent predictors of mortality. There were 12 non-fatal cardiovascular events during follow up. Analysing the combined end point of death or a vascular event, diabetes, aortic distensibilty and volumetric arterial strain were predictors of events.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Deranged vascular function measured with CMR correlates with cardiovascular risk factors and predicts outcome. CMR measures of vascular function are potential targets for interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk.</p

The diffusion of financial supervisory governance ideas

Who is watching the financial services industry? Since 1980, there have been multiple waves of thought about whether the ministry of finance, the central bank, a specialized regulator or some combination of these should have supervisory authority. These waves have been associated with the convergence of actual practices. How much and through what channels did internationally promoted ideas about supervisory 'best practice' influence institutional design choices? I use a new dataset of 83 countries and jurisdictions between the 1980s and 2007 to examine the diffusion of supervisory ideas. With this data, I employ Cox Proportional Hazard and Competing Risks Event History Analyses to evaluate the possible causal roles best practice policy ideas might have played. I find that banking crises and certain peer groups can encourage policy convergence on heavily promoted ideas

Crop Updates 2010 - Crop Specific

This session covers twenty four papers from different authors: PLENARY 1. Challenges facing western Canadian cropping over the next 10 years, Hugh J Beckie, Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan CROP SPECIFIC Breeding 2. The challenge of breeding canola hybrids – new opportunities for WA growers, Wallace Cowling, Research Director, Canola Breeders Western Australia Pty Ltd 3. Chickpea 2009 crop variety testing of germplasm developed by DAFWA/CLIMA/ICRISAT/COGGO alliance. Khan, TN1,3, Adhikari, K1,3, Siddique, K2, Garlinge, J1, Smith, L1, Morgan, S1 and Boyd, C1 1Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia (DAFWA), 2Insititute of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia (UWA), 3Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture (CLIMA), The University of Western Australia 4. PBA Pulse Breeding Australia – 2009 Field Pea Results, Ian Pritchard1, Chris Veitch1, Colin Boyd1, Stuart Morgan1, Alan Harris1 and Tony Leonforte2, 1Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia, 2Department of Primary Industries, Victoria 5. PBA Pulse Breeding Australia – 2009 Chickpea Results, Ian Pritchard1, Chris Veitch1, Colin Boyd1, Murray Blyth1, Shari Dougal1 and Kristy Hobson2 1Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australia, 2Department of Primary Industries, Victoria Decision Support 6. A tool for identifying problems in wheat paddocks, Ben Curtis and Doug Sawkins, Department of Agriculture and Food 7. DAFWA Seasonal Forecast for 2010, Stephens, D, Department of Agriculture and Food, Western Australian, Climate and Modelling Group Disease 8. Enhancement of black spot resistance in field pea, Kedar Adhikari, T Khan, S Morgan and C Boyd, Department of Agriculture and Food, 9. fungicide management of yellow spot in wheat, Ciara Beard, Kith Jayasena, Kazue Tanaka and Anne Smith, Department of Agriculture and Food 10. Resistance to infection by Beet western yellows virus in four Australian canola varieties, Brenda Coutts and Roger Jones, Department of Agriculture and Food 11. Yellow spot carryover risk from stubble in wheat-on-wheat rotations, Jean Galloway, Pip Payne and Tess Humphreys, Department of Agriculture and Food 12. Fungicides for the future: Management of Barley Powdery Mildew and Leaf Rust, Kith Jayasena, Kazue Tanaka and William MacLeod, Department of Agriculture and Food 13. 2009 canola disease survey and management options for blackleg and Sclerotinia in 2010, Ravjit Khangura, WJ MacLeod, M Aberra and H Mian, Department of Agriculture and Food 14. Impact of variety and fungicide on carryover of stubble borne inoculum and yellow spot severity in continuous wheat cropping, Geoff Thomas, Pip Payne, Tess Humphreys and Anne Smith, Department of Agriculture and Food 15. Limitations to the spread of Wheat streak mosaic virus by the Wheat curl mite in WA during 2009, Dusty Severtson, Peter Mangano, Brenda Coutts, Monica Kehoe and Roger Jones, Department of Agriculture and Food 16. Viable solutions for barley powdery mildew, Madeline A. Tucker, Australian Centre for Necrotrophic Fungal Pathogens, Murdoch University Marketing 17. The importance of varietal accreditation in a post-deregulation barley marketing environment, Neil Barker, Barley Australia 18. Can Australia wheat meet requirements for a new middle east market? Robert Loughman, Larisa Cato, Department of Agriculture and Food, and Ken Quail, BRI Australia VARIETY PERFORMANCE 19. Sowing rate and time for hybrid vs open-pollinated canola, Mohammad Amjad and Mark Seymour, Department of Agriculture and Food 20. HYOLA® National Hybrid vs OP Canola Hybrid F1 vs Retained Seed Generation Trial Results and recommendations for growers, Justin Kudnig, Mark Thompson, Anton Mannes, Michael Uttley, Chris Fletcher, Andrew Etherton, Nick Joyce and Kate Light, Pacific Seeds Australia 21. HYOLA® National Hybrid vs OP Canola Sowing Rate Trial Results and plant population recommendations for Australian growers, Justin Kudnig, Mark Thompson, Anton Mannes, Michael Uttley, Andrew Etherton, Chris Fletcher, Nick Joyce and Kate Light, Pacific Seeds Australia; Peter Hamblin, Agritech Research Young, NSW, Michael Lamond, Agrisearch, York, Western Australia 22. Desi chickpea agronomy for 2010, Alan Meldrum, Pulse Australia and Wayne Parker, Department of Agriculture and Food 23. New wheat varieties – exploit the benefits and avoid the pitfalls, Steve Penny, Sarah Ellis, Brenda Shackley, Christine Zaicou, Shahajahan Miyan, Darshan Sharma and Ben Curtis, Department of Agriculture and Food 24. The influence of genetics and environment on the level of seed alkaloid in narrow-leafed lupins, Greg Shea1, Bevan Buirchell1, David Harris2 and Bob French1, 1Department of Agriculture and Food, 2ChemCentr

Crop Updates 2005 - Lupins and Pulses

This session covers sixty five papers from different authors: 1. 2004 LUPIN AND PULSE INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS, Peter White Department of Agriculture 2. BACKGROUND, Peter White Department of Agriculture 2004 REGIONAL ROUNDUP 3. Northern Agricultural Region, Martin Harries, Department of Agriculture 4. Central Agricultural Region, Ian Pritchard, Department of Agriculture 5. Great Southern and Lakes, Rodger Beermier, Department of Agriculture 6. Esperance Port Zone, Mark Seymour, Department of Agriculture, and David Syme, The Grain Pool of WA LUPIN AND PULSE PRODUCTION AGRONOMY AND GENETIC IMPROVEMENT 7. Lupin, Martin Harries, Department of Agriculture 8. Narrow-leafed lupin breeding, Bevan Buirchell, Department of Agriculture 9. Yellow lupin breeding in Western Australia, Kedar Adhikari, Mark Sweetingham and Bevan Buirchell, Department of Agriculture 10. WALAB2000 - First Anthracnose resistant albus lupins, Kedar Adhikari, Bevan Buirchell, MarkSweetingham and Geoff Thomas, Department of Agriculture 11. Improving lupin grain quality and yield through genetic manipulation of key physiological traits, Jon Clements1 and Bevan Buirchell2,1CLIMA, The University of Western Australia 2Department of Agriculture 12. Lupin alkaloids in four Australian species, Shao Fang Wang, Chemistry Centre (WA), CLIMA, The University of Western Australia 13. Improving lupin tolerance to herbicides of metribuzin, isoxaflutole and carfentrazone-ethyl, Ping Si1, Mark Sweetingham12, Bevan Buirchell12, David Bowran2 and Huaan Yang12 , 1CLIMA, The University of Western Australia, 2Department of Agriculture 14. Combined cultural and shielded sprayer herbicide application for weed management, Martin Harries and Mike Baker Department of Agriculture 15. Field testing of lupin seed of various sources with and without post maturity, pre harvest rain for field establishment, Martin Harries, Wayne Parker, Mike Baker, Department of Agriculture 16. Lupin seed rate by wide row spacing, Martin Harries, Bob French, Damien Owen D’arcy, Department of Agriculture 17. How environment influences row spacing response in lupins, Bob French, Department of Agriculture 18. The effect of wider row spacing on lupin architecture, growth and nutrient uptake dynamics, Bill Bowden and Craig Scanlan, Department of Agriculture 19. Fertiliser placement and application rate in wide rows, Martin Harries, Damien Owen D’arcy, Department of Agriculture 20. The pros and cons of cowing lupins in ‘wide’ rows, Wayne Parker, Bob French and Martin Harries, Department of Agriculture 21. Investigation into the influence of row orientation in lupin crops, Jeff Russell1 and Angie Roe2, 1Department of Agriculture, 2Farm Focus Consultants 22. Making the most of Mandelup, Greg Shea and Chris Matthews, Department of Agriculture 23. The effect of wild radish density and lupin cultivars on their competition at Merredin, Shahab Pathan, Abul Hashem and Bob French, Department of Agriculture 24. The potential of pearl lupin (Lupinus mutabilis) for southern Australia, Jon Clements1, Mark Sweetingham2, Bevan Buirchell2, Sofia Sipsas2, Geoff Thomas2, John Quealy1, Roger Jones2, Clive Francis1, Colin Smith2 and Gordon Francis1, 1CLIMA, University of Western Australia 2Department of Agriculture 25. Field pea, Mark Seymour, Department of Agriculture 26. Breeding highlights, Tanveer. Khan and Bob French, Department of Agriculture 27. Variety evaluation, Tanveer Khan, Kerry Regan, Jenny Garlinge and Rod Hunter, Department of Agriculture 28. Large scale field pea variety trials, Martin Harries, Department of Agriculture 29. Kaspa demonstrations, Rodger Beermier, Mark Seymour, Ian Pritchard, Graham Mussell, Department of Agriculture 30. Field pea harvesting demonstration at Merredin, Glen Riethmuller, Greg Shea and Bob French, Department of Agriculture 31. Does Kaspa respond differently to disease, fungicides, time of sowing or seed rate, Mark Seymour, Department of Agriculture 32. Field pea response to foliar Manganese in mallee district, Mark Seymour, Department of Agriculture 33. Kaspa harvesting observations 2004, Mark Seymour, Ian Pritchard, Glen Riethmuller, Department of Agriculture 34. ‘Blackspot Manager’ for understanding blackspot of peas and ascochyta blight management, Moin Salam and Jean Galloway, Department of Agriculture 35. 250,000 ha of field pea in WA – Is it sustainable? Larn McMurray1 and Mark Seymour2, 1South Australian Research and Development Institute, 2Department of Agriculture 36. Desi chickpea, Wayne Parker, Department of Agriculture 37. Breeding highlights, Tanveer Khan1,2 and Kadambot Siddique2,1Department of Agriculture, 2CLIMA, The University of Western Australia 38. Variety evaluation, Tanveer Khan, Kerry Regan, Jenny Garlinge and Rod Hunter, Department of Agriculture 39. Large scale variety testing of desi chickpeas, Martin Harries, Greg Shea, Mike Baker, Dirranie Kirby, Department of Agriculture 40. Desi variety chickpea trial, Martin Harries and Murray Blyth, Department of Agriculture 41. Seeding rates and row spacing of chickpea desi, Martin Harries, MurrayBlyth, Damien Owen D’arcy, Department of Agriculture 42. Molecular characterisation of chickpea wild relatives, Fucheng Shan, Heather Clarke and Kadambot Siddique, CLIMA, The University of Western Australia 43. Plant phosphorus status has a limited influence on the concentration of phosphorus-mobilising carboxylates in the rhizosphere of chickpea, Madeleine Wouterlood, Hans Lambers and Erik Veneklaas, The University of Western Australia 44. Kabuli chickpea, Kerry Regan, Department of Agriculture, and CLIMA, The University of Western Australia 45. ‘Kimberly Large’ A high quality and high yielding new variety for the Ord River Irrigation Area, Kerry Regan1,2, Kadambot Siddique2, Peter White1,2, Peter Smith1 and Gae Plunkett1,1Department of Agriculture, 2CLIMA, University of Western Australia 46. Development of ascochyta resistant and high quality varieties for Australia, Kadambot Siddique1, Kerry Regan1,2, Tim Pope1 and Mike Baker2, 1CLIMA, The University of Western Australia 2Department of Agriculture 47. Towards double haploids in chickpeas and field pea, Janine Croser, Julia Wilson and Kadambot Siddique, CLIMA, The University of Western Australia 48. Crossing chickpea with wild Cicer relatives to introduce resistance to disease and tolerance to environmental stress, Heather Clarke and Kadambot Siddique, CLIMA, The University of Western Australia 49. Faba bean, Peter White, Department of Agriculture 50. Germplasm evaluation, Peter White1,2, Kerry Regan1,2, Tim Pope2, Martin Harries1, Mark Seymour1, Rodger Beermier1 and Leanne Young1, 1Department of Agriculture, 2CLIMA, The University of Western Australia 51. Lentil, Kerry Regan, Department of Agriculture, and CLIMA, The University of Western Australia 52. Variety and germplasm evaluation, Kerry Regan1,2, Tim Pope2, Leanne Young1, Martin Harries1, Murray Blyth1 and Michael Materne3, 1Department of Agriculture, 2CLIMA, University of Western Australia, 3Department of Primary Industries, Victoria 53. Lathyrus species, Kadambot Siddique1, Kerry Regan2, and Colin Hanbury2, 1CLIMA, the University of Western Australia, 2Department of Agricultur

Nowcasting for Africa: advances, potential and value

The high frequency of intense convective storms means there is a great demand to improve predictions of high-impact weather across Africa. The low skill of numerical weather prediction over Africa, even for short lead times highlights the need to deliver nowcasting based on satellite data. The Global Challenges Research Fund African SWIFT (Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques) project is working to improve the nowcasting of African convective systems and so the ability to provide timely warnings