Application of Stochastic Models to Growth and Decline Episodes of Financial Data

In this thesis work, we analyze fit of bivariate BEG and BTLG models to financial asset returns' episodes of growth and decline. Our data include foreign exchange rates, stock, and stock's indexes prices, and commoditites. We apply BEG and BTLG models to all data and decide if the models fit reasonably well based on univariate and bivariate fit methods. We also assess "stability" of the returns with respect to their geometric summation. Our results show BEG and BTLG models fitting best the foreign exchange rates

Asymptotic Treatment for Multinomial Models and Applications

In this study, we derived a highly convenient chi-square test to replace the Ftests for an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)-like inference for multinomial models. To obtain these results we started by studying limit distributions in models with compact parameter space. Based on these results we obtained confidence ellipsoids and simultaneous confidence intervals for models with limit normal distributions. Next, we studied the covariance matrices of the limit normal distributions for the multinomial models. This was a transition between the previous general results and those on the inference for multinomial models in which we considered the chi-square tests, confidence regions and non-linear statistics, namely log-linear model, with two numerical applications to those models. Our approach overcame the hierarchical restrictions assumed to analyze multidimensional contingency table. Also, by application for our research, we developed Discriminant Analysis (DA) for samples extracted from a random variable which can only take a finite number of values so a sample constituted by such values will have a multinomial distribution M( jn;p), with n being the sample size and p the probabilities of having the different values. Using DA in connection with Statistical Decision Theory (SDT), since we aim at minimizing the average cost associated with decisions, we derived a rule that minimizes the assignment costs. Our results were applied to data on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) treatments, and classified patients into Treated or Naive populations at an accuracy of 71.06%, despite the peculiar nature of our dataset. We also were able to show that our discrimination procedure was consistent

Public policy: an amorphous concept in the enforcement of arbitral awards

Public policy permeates the legal principles of a state and its ruling government. The justification of public policy is topical to the ethics and canons acknowledged by that state. These values are determined by the applicable political, social, economic, religious, and legal systems, which differ among states. As public policy usually best illuminates the broad area of government laws, regulations, provincial ordinances, and court decisions, the standards creating public policy alter as states develop. The motif of public policy is critical when the question of enforcement of arbitral awards suffice. There is no definite meaning of the term in the famous Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards (New York Arbitration Convention) to enforce foreign arbitral awards. Hence, this paper explores and traces some contemporary trends in defense of public policy as an exception to the enforcement of arbitral awards worldwide

Strategic Lay Leadership Involvement in the Social Mission of a Western Ontario Denomination

Several Ontario communities face challenges requiring harnessing multisectorial partnerships to bring about community transformation. The church has the capacity to contribute to the community transformation needs of its community, but a particular denomination in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) appeared to be unaware of how to fulfil its social mission of community transformation. The purpose of this case study was to understand how members of the clergy perceived the lay leadership vacuum in the denomination and how these perceptions appear to inhibit the denomination\u27s achievement of its social mission. The theoretical framework was Akingbola\u27s strategic nonprofit human resource management theory. A qualitative case study was employed, using semistructured interviews of 10 clergy in the GTA. Data from the interviews were coded and categorized for thematic analysis and constant comparison. Findings indicated a lay leadership vacuum in the studied denomination. Participants concurred that the vacuum was influenced by the perceptions of the clergy, which inhibit the denomination\u27s capacity to address the needs of the community. The results of this study could lead to positive social change through providing an understanding of the obstacles denominations and similar nonprofit organizations may need to overcome to effectively identify, nurture, and deploy their volunteers for the benefit of community transformation

Internationalisation Strategies of Emerging Market Firms: The Case of Sarawak

Research on the internationalisation strategies of emerging market firms (EMFs) have produced diverse results. This has led to calls for more studies to be conducted on the internationalisation strategies adopted by EMFs from various contexts. Using a qualitative research methodology, this research investigated the internationalisation strategies of EMFs from the East Malaysian state of Sarawak, and assessed the suitability of prevailing internationalisation theories in explaining those strategies

Distance education for teacher education in Ghana: an investigation into untrained teachers' experiences

Ghana, like many developing countries, has fewer trained, qualified teachers than the number the country needs to realise the Education For All goals of quality education by 2015. The failure of Ghana’s teacher education sector to turn out sufficient numbers of qualified trained teachers is as a result of numerous factors including existing Colleges of Education (CoEs) not having enough facilities to train the high number of untrained teachers (UTs) through the traditional campus-based model and difficulty of access to teacher education places. In response to these limitations, the Teacher Education Division, with the support of the CoEs, adopted an alternative pathway for initial teacher preparation known as Untrained Teachers’ Diploma in Basic Education (UTDBE) in the latter part of 2004. This model of initial teacher preparation differs from the traditional campus-based model as the training is largely non-residential with limited provision of face-to-face meetings. After four years of implementation, key stakeholders, notably the top hierarchy of Ghana Education Service and the Ministry of Education, were calling for the extension of the programme by way of admitting another cohort of students. However, it was clear from my perspective as a senior professional involved in Teacher Education and with seven years of professional knowledge and experience in Distance Teacher Education that there was a lack of in-depth, theoretically-informed research into the programme, particularly with respect to the views of UTs themselves. The study was therefore designed using an in-depth case study approach to discover the views of UT participants on how the UTDBE had influenced their professional development and the quality of their teaching and learning, with a particular interest in the view of six UTs who were the direct beneficiaries of the programme. The research methods adopted were predominantly qualitative, and included observations and analysis of documents, a series of interviews with selected UTs, including focus groups and one-on-one interviews in which UTs reflected on videos they had taken of their practice. The findings suggest the potential of the UTDBE as a source for teachers (especially, those in underserved communities and locations) to learn, develop, update their skills and knowledge and improve instructional practices consistent with learner-centred approaches and professional practices. In addition, the opportunity that the UTDBE offers UTs to teach as classroom teachers while completing their professional programmes seems to have given them the chance to at least integrate and relate theoretical knowledge and experiences from CoEs to the practical realities in the classrooms and schools. However, the data indicated a number of challenges facing the UTDBE programme which undoubtedly affected the extent to which it promoted professional and personal development and learner-centred practices. These included (i) inability of the programme to take advantage of professional learning experiences that might be possible ICTs were introduced (ii) weak district, school and college collaboration (iii) the difficulties and complexities in managing relations between UTs and mentors (iv) tutoring during residential face-to-face meeting devoted to large group lectures (v) the over-loaded nature of course content and the difficulty and loaded nature of the content of some modules (vi) inability of UTs to make maximum use of college facilities (vii) other mechanisms of professional development such as cluster meetings and lesson observation not being used to their full potential (viii) largely non-recognition of the ‘wisdom of practice’ of UTs and (ix) tensions in expectations between the different communities of practice of the different contexts of training and practice. The thesis therefore makes an important contribution to our knowledge about the development of alternative forms of teacher education in such contexts

Epidemiological model of the transmission and spread of Hepatitis B pandemic in Ghana

The world\u27s attention to the burden and spread of hepatitis B has increased signicantly in the recent past. A number of interventions by way of treatment and immunisation have been initiated to fight the pandemic, especially in high prevalence regions such as Africa and Asia. Lack of good quality information about hepatitis B is a major hindrance to policy direction and comprehensive implementation of interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa designated as an endemic region. Limited studies on hepatitis B, coupled with lack of adequate health care systems and infrastructure, have led to ignorance or misconceptions and stigmatisation about the disease and worsened the disease prevalence in Ghana a Sub-Saharan African country. As a contribution, this study employed a SEIR deterministic compartmental model, which incorporates latent period and vertical transmission, to examine the transmission and spread of hepatitis B in the context of the Sub-Saharan Africa with incidence data obtained from Ghana. The SEIR deterministic compartmental modelling divided the human population into separate classes namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I) and removed (R) or recovered, and disease progression among population members in the various classes was described using a system of nonlinear ordinary di_erential equations (ODEs). The model has two equilibrium states namely, the disease-free equilibrium Q0 and the endemic equilibrium Q*. Stability analysis indicated that the model has an epidemiological threshold parameter R0 which is defined as the expected proportion of secondary infections generated as a result of introducing a single infected individual into the population. When R0 ≤1 the disease-free equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable whilst the endemic equilibrium state is unstable and so the disease is brought under control. When R0 \u3e 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable whilst the endemic equilibrium state is stable and so the disease persists in the population. Stability of the model was analysed in terms of proportions instead of the absolute number of cases and so disease eradication or persistence referred to the infected proportions vanishing or persisting respectively. A hybrid nonlinear least squares method, that combines a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and a modifed Levenberg-Marquadt (LM) algorithm, was applied to the hepatitis B incidence data to estimate the parameters of the model for Ghana (global) and also for each of the ten regions of Ghana. By numerical simulations, sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the effects of the model parameters on the threshold parameter R0 using MATLAB. Furthermore, the model was modi_ed to include a vaccination component to examine the impact of an intervention on the transmission and spread of the disease. The vaccination model also has an epidemiological threshold parameter Rv0 such that when the vaccination rate k is greater than a threshold value k*, then Rv0 \u3c 1 and the disease decreases; and when k is less than k*, Rv0 \u3e 1 and the disease increases. This indicated that when the rate of vaccination k was increased beyond the threshold value k*, the disease would be kept under control. The threshold parameter was calculated as R0 = 1:6854 for Ghana. This indicated that the endemic proportion equilibrium is asymptotically stable and so hepatitis B persists in the population of Ghana. The contact rate β, latency rate and vertical transmission rate γ were identifed as driving the disease spread in the population. A critical proportion of H = 0:4067 was calculated as the herd immunity threshold value of the population. This means that about 41% of the population are needed to be immune in order to adequately reduce the rates of transmission to keep the disease under control. Variability in the regional threshold parameters R0 indicated significant disparities in the spread and burden of hepatitis B across the ten regions of Ghana. The highest and the least values of (R0 = 3:7212;H = 0:7312) and (R0 = 1:3669;H = 0:2684) were calculated for Upper West and Volta regions respectively. The regional threshold parameters R0 also indicated that the trend of transmission and spread of the disease increase from south to north across the regions of Ghana. A simple regression analysis performed indicated that the increasing trend from south to north is highly associated with poverty and health sector differentials. Another factor that was considered in this study to have potentially impacted the distribution and pattern of spread and burden of hepatitis B in Ghana is prevalence differentials among regions and between Ghana and its neighbouring countries

Dissolved nitrogen in drinking water resources of farming communities in Ghana

A water quality study was carried out on streams and boreholes which serve as drinking water sources in farming communities in the Brong Ahafo region of the Republic of Ghana. The objective of this research was to determine concentrations of different forms of nitrogen in drinking water samples. Water samples were collected from these sources every three months (from January – December 2005) and analyzed for ammonia, nitrate and nitrite using the Palintest Photometer Method. Results indicated the annual mean concentration of nitrate, nitrite and ammonia varied from 0.09 - 1.06 mg/l, 0.006 - 0.36 mg/l and 0.008 - 0.179 mg/l respectively. An important observation is that, in general, higher nitrate and nitrite concentrations were found during the rainy season compared to the dry season. Concentrations of these potentially toxic substances were below WHO acceptable limits for surface and groundwaters, indicating these water resources appear safe for drinking from a dissolved nitrogen perspective.Key words: ammonia, Brong Ahafo, nitrate, nitrite, nitrogen, ground and surface water

Acquiring and disseminating unpublished economic and social development materials in Africa: The case of the National Institute of Development Research and Documentation University of Botswana

Generally in Africa, the identification and acquisition of both published and unpublished documents can be an extremely difficult task due, among other factors, to the unsatisfactory state of the publishing industry and the poor state of bibliographic control. This paper analyzes the various problems involved in the acquisition of documents in Africa and illustrates them with the author's personal experience as an acquisitions librarian working on an information project which necessitated travel to about 15 African countries