Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands

Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission

piRNA-like small RNAs are responsible for the maternal-specific knockdown in the ascidian Ciona intestinalis Type A

The mRNAs stored in eggs are crucial for embryogenesis. To address functions of maternal mRNAs, we recently reported the novel method MASK (maternal mRNA-specific knockdown), which we used to specifically knockdown maternal transcripts in the ascidian Ciona intestinalis Type A. In MASK, the cis element of a maternal gene is fused with eGFP or Kaede reporter gene, and the cassette is introduced into Ciona genome by transposon-mediated transgenesis. In eggs of the transgenic lines, the maternal expression of the gene whose cis element is used for driving the reporter gene is suppressed. The zygotic expression of the gene is not suppressed, suggesting that the MASK method can distinguish between maternal and zygotic functions of a gene. Here we investigated the cis and trans factors responsible for MASK results. In the ovaries in which knockdown of a maternal gene occurs, a number of antisense small RNAs are expressed that are complementary to the sequence of the knocked-down genes. We suspect that these antisense small RNAs are the factor responsible for MASK results. The antisense small RNAs have several features that are seen in PIWI-interacting RNAs (piRNAs), suggesting that MASK is likely to use a piRNA-mediated mechanism to knock down maternal mRNAs

Indian Ocean Dipole and Rainfall Drive a Moran Effect in East Africa Malaria Transmission

Background. Patterns of concerted fluctuation in populations-synchrony-can reveal impacts of climatic variability on disease dynamics. We examined whether malaria transmission has been synchronous in an area with a common rainfall regime and sensitive to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a global climatic phenomenon affecting weather patterns in East Africa.Methods.We studied malaria synchrony in 5 15-year long (1984-1999) monthly time series that encompass an altitudinal gradient, approximately 1000 m to 2000 m, along Lake Victoria basin. We quantified the association patterns between rainfall and malaria time series at different altitudes and across the altitudinal gradient encompassed by the study locations.Results.We found a positive seasonal association of rainfall with malaria, which decreased with altitude. By contrast, IOD and interannual rainfall impacts on interannual disease cycles increased with altitude. Our analysis revealed a nondecaying synchrony of similar magnitude in both malaria and rainfall, as expected under a Moran effect, supporting a role for climatic variability on malaria epidemic frequency, which might reflect rainfall-mediated changes in mosquito abundance.Conclusions.Synchronous malaria epidemics call for the integration of knowledge on the forcing of malaria transmission by environmental variability to develop robust malaria control and elimination programs