Improvements to the Red List Index

The Red List Index uses information from the IUCN Red List to track trends in the projected overall extinction risk of sets of species. It has been widely recognised as an important component of the suite of indicators needed to measure progress towards the international target of significantly reducing the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. However, further application of the RLI (to non-avian taxa in particular) has revealed some shortcomings in the original formula and approach: It performs inappropriately when a value of zero is reached; RLI values are affected by the frequency of assessments; and newly evaluated species may introduce bias. Here we propose a revision to the formula, and recommend how it should be applied in order to overcome these shortcomings. Two additional advantages of the revisions are that assessment errors are not propagated through time, and the overall level extinction risk can be determined as well as trends in this over time

Dynamic Habitat Disturbance and Ecological Resilience (DyHDER): Modeling Population Responses to Habitat Condition

Understanding how populations respond to spatially heterogeneous habitat disturbance is as critical to conservation as it is challenging. Here, we present a new, free, and open‐source metapopulation model: Dynamic Habitat Disturbance and Ecological Resilience (DyHDER), which incorporates subpopulation habitat condition and connectivity into a population viability analysis framework. Modeling temporally dynamic and spatially explicit habitat disturbance of varying magnitude and duration is accomplished through the use of habitat time‐series data and a mechanistic approach to adjusting subpopulation vital rates. Additionally, DyHDER uses a probabilistic dispersal model driven by site‐specific habitat suitability, density dependence, and directionally dependent connectivity. In the first application of DyHDER, we explore how fragmentation and projected climate change are predicted to impact a well‐studied Bonneville cutthroat trout metapopulation in the Logan River (Utah, USA). The DyHDER model predicts which subpopulations are most susceptible to disturbance, as well as the potential interactions between stressors. Further, the model predicts how populations may be expected to redistribute following disturbance. This information is valuable to conservationists and managers faced with protecting populations of conservation concern across landscapes undergoing changing disturbance regimes. The DyHDER model provides a valuable and generalizable new tool to explore metapopulation resilience to spatially and temporally dynamic stressors for a diverse range of taxa and ecosystems

Simulated Effects of Recruitment Variability, Exploitation, and Reduced Habitat Area on the Muskellunge Population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

The genetically unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabiting Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, is potentially at risk for loss of genetic variability and long-term viability. Shoepack Lake has been subject to dramatic surface area changes from the construction of an outlet dam by beavers Castor canadensis and its subsequent failure. We simulated the long-term dynamics of this population in response to recruitment variation, increased exploitation, and reduced habitat area. We then estimated the effective population size of the simulated population and evaluated potential threats to long-term viability, based on which we recommend management actions to help preserve the long-term viability of the population. Simulations based on the population size and habitat area at the beginning of a companion study resulted in an effective population size that was generally above the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability, except when fishing mortality was increased. Simulations based on the reduced habitat area after the beaver dam failure and our assumption of a proportional reduction in population size resulted in an effective population size that was generally below the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability. Our results identified two potential threats to the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population, reduction in habitat area and exploitation. Increased exploitation can be prevented through traditional fishery management approaches such as the adoption of no-kill, barbless hook, and limited entry regulations. Maintenance of the greatest possible habitat area and prevention of future habitat area reductions will require maintenance of the outlet dam built by beavers. Our study should enhance the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population and illustrates a useful approach for other unique populations

An efficient protocol for the global sensitivity analysis of stochastic ecological models

Stochastic simulation models requiring many input parameters are widely used to inform the management of ecological systems. The interpretation of complex models is aided by global sensitivity analysis, using simulations for distinct parameter sets sampled from multidimensional space. Ecologists typically analyze such output using an “emulator”; that is, a statistical model used to approximate the relationship between parameter inputs and simulation outputs and to derive sensitivity measures. However, it is typical for ad hoc decisions to be made regarding: (1) trading off the number of parameter samples against the number of simulation iterations run per sample, (2) determining whether parameter sampling is sufficient, and (3) selecting an appropriate emulator. To evaluate these choices, we coupled different sensitivity-analysis designs and emulators for a stochastic, 20-parameter model that simulated the re-introduction of a threatened species subject to predation and disease, and then validated the emulators against new output generated from the simulation model. Our results lead to the following sensitivity analysis-protocol for stochastic ecological models. (1) Run a single simulation iteration per parameter sample generated, even if the focal response is a probabilistic outcome, while sampling extensively across the parameter space. In contrast to designs that invested in many model iterations (tens to thousands) per parameter sample, this approach allowed emulators to capture the input-output relationship of the simulation model more accurately and also to produce sensitivity measures that were robust to variation inherent in the parameter-sampling stage. (2) Confirm that parameter sampling is sufficient, by emulating subsamples of the sensitivity-analysis output. As the subsample size is increased, the cross-validatory performance of the emulator and sensitivity measures derived from it should exhibit asymptotic behavior. This approach can also be used to compare candidate emulators and select an appropriate interaction depth. (3) If required, conduct further simulations for additional parameter samples, and then report sensitivity measures and illustrate key response curves using the selected emulator. This protocol will generate robust sensitivity measures and facilitate the interpretation of complex ecological models, while minimizing simulation effort.Thomas A. A. Prowse, Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Steven Delean, Phillip Cassey, Robert C. Lacy, Konstans Wells, Matthew E. Aiello-Lammens, H. R. Akçakaya, and Barry W. Broo

Diagnostic techniques for inflammatory eye disease: past, present and future: a review

Investigations used to aid diagnosis and prognosticate outcomes in ocular inflammatory disorders are based on techniques that have evolved over the last two centuries have dramatically evolved with the advances in molecular biological and imaging technology. Our improved understanding of basic biological processes of infective drives of innate immunity bridging the engagement of adaptive immunity have formed techniques to tailor and develop assays, and deliver targeted treatment options. Diagnostic techniques are paramount to distinguish infective from non-infective intraocular inflammatory disease, particularly in atypical cases. The advances have enabled our ability to multiplex assay small amount of specimen quantities of intraocular samples including aqueous, vitreous or small tissue samples. Nevertheless to achieve diagnosis, techniques often require a range of assays from traditional hypersensitivity reactions and microbe specific immunoglobulin analysis to modern molecular techniques and cytokine analysis. Such approaches capitalise on the advantages of each technique, thereby improving the sensitivity and specificity of diagnoses. This review article highlights the development of laboratory diagnostic techniques for intraocular inflammatory disorders now readily available to assist in accurate identification of infective agents and appropriation of appropriate therapies as well as formulating patient stratification alongside clinical diagnoses into disease groups for clinical trials

Testing a global standard for quantifying species recovery and assessing conservation impact

Recognizing the imperative to evaluate species recovery and conservation impact, in 2012 the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) called for development of a “Green List of Species” (now the IUCN Green Status of Species). A draft Green Status framework for assessing species’ progress toward recovery, published in 2018, proposed 2 separate but interlinked components: a standardized method (i.e., measurement against benchmarks of species’ viability, functionality, and preimpact distribution) to determine current species recovery status (herein species recovery score) and application of that method to estimate past and potential future impacts of conservation based on 4 metrics (conservation legacy, conservation dependence, conservation gain, and recovery potential). We tested the framework with 181 species representing diverse taxa, life histories, biomes, and IUCN Red List categories (extinction risk). Based on the observed distribution of species’ recovery scores, we propose the following species recovery categories: fully recovered, slightly depleted, moderately depleted, largely depleted, critically depleted, extinct in the wild, and indeterminate. Fifty-nine percent of tested species were considered largely or critically depleted. Although there was a negative relationship between extinction risk and species recovery score, variation was considerable. Some species in lower risk categories were assessed as farther from recovery than those at higher risk. This emphasizes that species recovery is conceptually different from extinction risk and reinforces the utility of the IUCN Green Status of Species to more fully understand species conservation status. Although extinction risk did not predict conservation legacy, conservation dependence, or conservation gain, it was positively correlated with recovery potential. Only 1.7% of tested species were categorized as zero across all 4 of these conservation impact metrics, indicating that conservation has, or will, play a role in improving or maintaining species status for the vast majority of these species. Based on our results, we devised an updated assessment framework that introduces the option of using a dynamic baseline to assess future impacts of conservation over the short term to avoid misleading results which were generated in a small number of cases, and redefines short term as 10 years to better align with conservation planning. These changes are reflected in the IUCN Green Status of Species Standard

Towards accurate and precise T1 and extracellular volume mapping in the myocardium: a guide to current pitfalls and their solutions

Mapping of the longitudinal relaxation time (T1) and extracellular volume (ECV) offers a means of identifying pathological changes in myocardial tissue, including diffuse changes that may be invisible to existing T1-weighted methods. This technique has recently shown strong clinical utility for pathologies such as Anderson- Fabry disease and amyloidosis and has generated clinical interest as a possible means of detecting small changes in diffuse fibrosis; however, scatter in T1 and ECV estimates offers challenges for detecting these changes, and bias limits comparisons between sites and vendors. There are several technical and physiological pitfalls that influence the accuracy (bias) and precision (repeatability) of T1 and ECV mapping methods. The goal of this review is to describe the most significant of these, and detail current solutions, in order to aid scientists and clinicians to maximise the utility of T1 mapping in their clinical or research setting. A detailed summary of technical and physiological factors, issues relating to contrast agents, and specific disease-related issues is provided, along with some considerations on the future directions of the field. Towards accurate and precise T1 and extracellular volume mapping in the myocardium: a guide to current pitfalls and their solutions. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317548806_Towards_accurate_and_precise_T1_and_extracellular_volume_mapping_in_the_myocardium_a_guide_to_current_pitfalls_and_their_solutions [accessed Jun 13, 2017]

Opuntia in México: Identifying Priority Areas for Conserving Biodiversity in a Multi-Use Landscape

BACKGROUND: México is one of the world's centers of species diversity (richness) for Opuntia cacti. Yet, in spite of their economic and ecological importance, Opuntia species remain poorly studied and protected in México. Many of the species are sparsely but widely distributed across the landscape and are subject to a variety of human uses, so devising implementable conservation plans for them presents formidable difficulties. Multi-criteria analysis can be used to design a spatially coherent conservation area network while permitting sustainable human usage. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Species distribution models were created for 60 Opuntia species using MaxEnt. Targets of representation within conservation area networks were assigned at 100% for the geographically rarest species and 10% for the most common ones. Three different conservation plans were developed to represent the species within these networks using total area, shape, and connectivity as relevant criteria. Multi-criteria analysis and a metaheuristic adaptive tabu search algorithm were used to search for optimal solutions. The plans were built on the existing protected areas of México and prioritized additional areas for management for the persistence of Opuntia species. All plans required around one-third of México's total area to be prioritized for attention for Opuntia conservation, underscoring the implausibility of Opuntia conservation through traditional land reservation. Tabu search turned out to be both computationally tractable and easily implementable for search problems of this kind. CONCLUSIONS: Opuntia conservation in México require the management of large areas of land for multiple uses. The multi-criteria analyses identified priority areas and organized them in large contiguous blocks that can be effectively managed. A high level of connectivity was established among the prioritized areas resulting in the enhancement of possible modes of plant dispersal as well as only a small number of blocks that would be recommended for conservation management

Living on the Edge: Assessing the Extinction Risk of Critically Endangered Bonelli’s Eagle in Italy

Background: The population of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) has declined drastically throughout its European range due to habitat degradation and unnatural elevated mortality. There are less than 1500 breeding pairs accounted for in Europe, and the species is currently catalogued as Critically Endangered in Italy, where the 22 territories of Sicily, represent nearly 95% of the entire Italian population. However, despite national and European conservation concerns, the species currently lacks a specific conservation plan, and no previous attempts to estimate the risk of extinction have been made. Methodology/Principal Findings: We incorporated the most updated demographic information available to assess the extinction risk of endangered Bonelli’s eagle in Italy through a Population Viability Analysis. Using perturbation analyses (sensitivity and elasticity), and a combination of demographic data obtained from an assortment of independent methods, we evaluated which demographic parameters have more influence on the population’s fate. We also simulated different scenarios to explore the effects of possible management actions. Our results showed that under the current conditions, Bonelli’s eagle is expected to become extinct in Italy in less than 50 years. Stand-alone juvenile mortality was the most critical demographic parameter with the strongest influence on population persistence with respect to other demographic parameters. Measures aimed at either decreasing juvenile mortality, adult mortality or decreasing both juvenile and adult mortality resulted in equivalent net positive effects on population persistence (population growth rate l.1). In contrast, changes aimed at increasing breeding success had limited positive effects on demographic trends. Conclusions/Significance: Our PVA provides essential information to direct the decision-making process and exposes gaps in our previous knowledge. To ensure the long-term persistence of the species in Italy, measures are urgently needed to decrease both adult mortality due to poaching and juvenile mortality due to nest plundering, the top ranking mortality causes.PLL is supported by a “Juan de la Cierva” postdoctoral grant of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (reference JCI-2011–09588)