Improvements to the Red List Index

The Red List Index uses information from the IUCN Red List to track trends in the projected overall extinction risk of sets of species. It has been widely recognised as an important component of the suite of indicators needed to measure progress towards the international target of significantly reducing the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. However, further application of the RLI (to non-avian taxa in particular) has revealed some shortcomings in the original formula and approach: It performs inappropriately when a value of zero is reached; RLI values are affected by the frequency of assessments; and newly evaluated species may introduce bias. Here we propose a revision to the formula, and recommend how it should be applied in order to overcome these shortcomings. Two additional advantages of the revisions are that assessment errors are not propagated through time, and the overall level extinction risk can be determined as well as trends in this over time

Improved navigator-gated motion compensation in cardiac MR using additional constraint of magnitude of motion-corrupted data

Background. In conventional prospective respiratory navigator (NAV) acquisitions, 40-60% of the acquired data are discarded resulting in low efficiency and long scan times [1,2].Compressed-sensing Motion Compensation (CosMo) has a shorter fixed scan time by acquiring the full inner k-space and estimating the NAV-rejected outer k-space lines [3]. Respiratory motion will mainly manifest itself as phase variation in the acquired k-space data. We sought to determine if the addition of the magnitude of the rejected k-space lines as a constraint in image reconstruction will improve the performance of CosMo. Methods. To investigate the variability of the magnitude of kspace lines at different respiratory phases, free-breathing, ECG-triggered, targeted right coronary images with multiple averages were acquired from 10 healthy adult subjects. Magnitude variability was investigated quantitatively by calculating the cross-correlation between accepted and rejected k-space lines. CosMo was implemented retrospectively on one acquisition from each subject. The inner k-space (31 ky by 7 kz lines) was filled with lines acquired within the 5mm gating window from all acquisitions. The outer kspace was then filled only with lines from the first average acquired within the 5 mm gating window, resulting in an undersampled k-space with a fully sampled center. For reliable image reconstruction with CosMo, 10-20% of the inner k-space must be fully-sampled. The missing outer k-space lines were then estimated using LOST with an additional magnitude constraint within each estimation iteration or in the final iteration for each coil [4]. The results were compared with prospective NAVgating with a gating window of 5 mm and CosMo reconstruction without the magnitude constraint. Results. Figure 1 shows the cross-correlation between the accepted and worst rejected k-space lines for each position. The correlation is close to 1 at the center of kspace where the majority of image information is contained, indicating low variability in magnitude information at different respiratory phases. Figure 2 shows right coronary images acquired using a) fully-sampled, 5-mm gated data, b) the original CosMo, and CosMo with the additional magnitude constraint c) inside each iteration and d) in the final iteration. The relative signal-to-noise in the left ventricle blood pool is: $30.71 \pm 6.5; 40.32 \pm 14.2; 53.9 \pm 26.8; 56.8 \pm 25.9$ for each reconstruction, respectively. Significant differences (p<0.05) are present for all measurements except between the original CosMo and the CosMo image with the magnitude constraint in each iteration (p=0.09). Conclusions. The addition of the magnitude of rejected lines, readily available in all navigator-gated scans, as a constraint in CosMo results in improved image quality as measured by relative SNR. Funding. NIH R01EB008743-01A2

Dynamic Habitat Disturbance and Ecological Resilience (DyHDER): Modeling Population Responses to Habitat Condition

Understanding how populations respond to spatially heterogeneous habitat disturbance is as critical to conservation as it is challenging. Here, we present a new, free, and open‐source metapopulation model: Dynamic Habitat Disturbance and Ecological Resilience (DyHDER), which incorporates subpopulation habitat condition and connectivity into a population viability analysis framework. Modeling temporally dynamic and spatially explicit habitat disturbance of varying magnitude and duration is accomplished through the use of habitat time‐series data and a mechanistic approach to adjusting subpopulation vital rates. Additionally, DyHDER uses a probabilistic dispersal model driven by site‐specific habitat suitability, density dependence, and directionally dependent connectivity. In the first application of DyHDER, we explore how fragmentation and projected climate change are predicted to impact a well‐studied Bonneville cutthroat trout metapopulation in the Logan River (Utah, USA). The DyHDER model predicts which subpopulations are most susceptible to disturbance, as well as the potential interactions between stressors. Further, the model predicts how populations may be expected to redistribute following disturbance. This information is valuable to conservationists and managers faced with protecting populations of conservation concern across landscapes undergoing changing disturbance regimes. The DyHDER model provides a valuable and generalizable new tool to explore metapopulation resilience to spatially and temporally dynamic stressors for a diverse range of taxa and ecosystems

Unsustainable harvest of water frogs in southern Turkey for the European market

Frogs have been harvested from the wild for the last 40 years in Turkey. We analysed the population dynamics of Anatolian water frogs (Pelophylax spp.) in the Seyhan and Ceyhan Deltas during 2013–2015. We marked a total of 13,811 individuals during 3 years, estimated population sizes, simulated the dynamics of a harvested population over 50 years, and collated frog harvest and export statistics from the region and for Turkey as a whole. Our capture estimates indicated a population reduction of c. 20% per year, and our population modelling showed that, if overharvesting continues at current rates, the harvested populations will decline rapidly. Simulations with a model of harvested population dynamics resulted in a risk of extinction of > 90% within 50 years, with extinction likely in c. 2032. Our interviews with harvesters revealed their economic dependence on the frog harvest. However, our results also showed that reducing harvest rates would not only ensure the viability of these frog populations but would also provide a source of income that is sustainable in the long term. Our study provides insights into the position of Turkey in the ‘extinction domino’ line, in which harvest pressure shifts among countries as frog populations are depleted and harvest bans are effected. We recommend that harvesting of wild frogs should be banned during the mating season, hunting and exporting of frogs < 30 g should be banned, and harvesters should be trained on species knowledge and awareness of regulations

An efficient protocol for the global sensitivity analysis of stochastic ecological models

Stochastic simulation models requiring many input parameters are widely used to inform the management of ecological systems. The interpretation of complex models is aided by global sensitivity analysis, using simulations for distinct parameter sets sampled from multidimensional space. Ecologists typically analyze such output using an “emulator”; that is, a statistical model used to approximate the relationship between parameter inputs and simulation outputs and to derive sensitivity measures. However, it is typical for ad hoc decisions to be made regarding: (1) trading off the number of parameter samples against the number of simulation iterations run per sample, (2) determining whether parameter sampling is sufficient, and (3) selecting an appropriate emulator. To evaluate these choices, we coupled different sensitivity-analysis designs and emulators for a stochastic, 20-parameter model that simulated the re-introduction of a threatened species subject to predation and disease, and then validated the emulators against new output generated from the simulation model. Our results lead to the following sensitivity analysis-protocol for stochastic ecological models. (1) Run a single simulation iteration per parameter sample generated, even if the focal response is a probabilistic outcome, while sampling extensively across the parameter space. In contrast to designs that invested in many model iterations (tens to thousands) per parameter sample, this approach allowed emulators to capture the input-output relationship of the simulation model more accurately and also to produce sensitivity measures that were robust to variation inherent in the parameter-sampling stage. (2) Confirm that parameter sampling is sufficient, by emulating subsamples of the sensitivity-analysis output. As the subsample size is increased, the cross-validatory performance of the emulator and sensitivity measures derived from it should exhibit asymptotic behavior. This approach can also be used to compare candidate emulators and select an appropriate interaction depth. (3) If required, conduct further simulations for additional parameter samples, and then report sensitivity measures and illustrate key response curves using the selected emulator. This protocol will generate robust sensitivity measures and facilitate the interpretation of complex ecological models, while minimizing simulation effort.Thomas A. A. Prowse, Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Steven Delean, Phillip Cassey, Robert C. Lacy, Konstans Wells, Matthew E. Aiello-Lammens, H. R. Akçakaya, and Barry W. Broo

Simulated Effects of Recruitment Variability, Exploitation, and Reduced Habitat Area on the Muskellunge Population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

The genetically unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabiting Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, is potentially at risk for loss of genetic variability and long-term viability. Shoepack Lake has been subject to dramatic surface area changes from the construction of an outlet dam by beavers Castor canadensis and its subsequent failure. We simulated the long-term dynamics of this population in response to recruitment variation, increased exploitation, and reduced habitat area. We then estimated the effective population size of the simulated population and evaluated potential threats to long-term viability, based on which we recommend management actions to help preserve the long-term viability of the population. Simulations based on the population size and habitat area at the beginning of a companion study resulted in an effective population size that was generally above the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability, except when fishing mortality was increased. Simulations based on the reduced habitat area after the beaver dam failure and our assumption of a proportional reduction in population size resulted in an effective population size that was generally below the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability. Our results identified two potential threats to the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population, reduction in habitat area and exploitation. Increased exploitation can be prevented through traditional fishery management approaches such as the adoption of no-kill, barbless hook, and limited entry regulations. Maintenance of the greatest possible habitat area and prevention of future habitat area reductions will require maintenance of the outlet dam built by beavers. Our study should enhance the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population and illustrates a useful approach for other unique populations

Generation lengths of the world's birds and their implications for extinction risk

Birds have been comprehensively assessed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List more times than any other taxonomic group. However, to date, generation lengths have not been systematically estimated to scale population trends when undertaking assessments, as required by the criteria of the IUCN Red List. We compiled information from major databases of published life-history and trait data for all birds and imputed missing life-history data as a function of species traits with generalized linear mixed models. Generation lengths were derived for all species, based on our modeled values of age at first breeding, maximum longevity, and annual adult survival. The resulting generation lengths varied from 1.42 to 27.87 years (median 2.99). Most species (61%) had generation lengths <3.33 years, meaning that the period of 3 generations—over which population declines are assessed under criterion A—was <10 years, which is the value used for IUCN Red List assessments of species with short generation times. For these species, our trait-informed estimates of generation length suggested that 10 years is a robust precautionary value for threat assessment. In other cases, however, for whole families, genera, or individual species, generation length had a substantial impact on their estimated extinction risk, resulting in higher extinction risk in long-lived species than in short-lived species. Although our approach effectively addressed data gaps, generation lengths for some species may have been underestimated due to a paucity of life-history data. Overall, our results will strengthen future extinction-risk assessments and augment key databases of avian life-history and trait data

Developing population models with data from marked individuals

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, densitydependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources -notably, mark-recapture studies -remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark-recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark-recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from markrecapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of the processes underlying population dynamics and our ability to analyze viability and project trends for species of conservation concern

Bridging the research-implementation gap in IUCN Red List assessments

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is central in biodiversity conservation, but insufficient resources hamper its long-term growth, updating, and consistency. Models or automated calculations can alleviate those challenges by providing standardised estimates required for assessments, or prioritising species for (re-)assessments. However, while numerous scientific papers have proposed such methods, few have been integrated into assessment practice, highlighting a critical research-implementation gap. We believe this gap can be bridged by fostering communication and collaboration between academic researchers and Red List practitioners, and by developing and maintaining user-friendly platforms to automate application of the methods. We propose that developing methods better encompassing Red List criteria, systems, and drivers is the next priority to support the Red List.Peer reviewe