Estimating Water Supply Arsenic Levels in the New England Bladder Cancer Study

Background: Ingestion of inorganic arsenic in drinking water is recognized as a cause of bladder cancer when levels are relatively high (≥ 150 µg/L). The epidemiologic evidence is less clear at the low-to-moderate concentrations typically observed in the United States. Accurate retrospective exposure assessment over a long time period is a major challenge in conducting epidemiologic studies of environmental factors and diseases with long latency, such as cancer. Objective: We estimated arsenic concentrations in the water supplies of 2,611 participants in a population-based case–control study in northern New England. Methods: Estimates covered the lifetimes of most study participants and were based on a combination of arsenic measurements at the homes of the participants and statistical modeling of arsenic concentrations in the water supply of both past and current homes. We assigned a residential water supply arsenic concentration for 165,138 (95%) of the total 173,361 lifetime exposure years (EYs) and a workplace water supply arsenic level for 85,195 EYs (86% of reported occupational years). Results: Three methods accounted for 93% of the residential estimates of arsenic concentration: direct measurement of water samples (27%; median, 0.3 µg/L; range, 0.1–11.5), statistical models of water utility measurement data (49%; median, 0.4 µg/L; range, 0.3–3.3), and statistical models of arsenic concentrations in wells using aquifers in New England (17%; median, 1.6 µg/L; range, 0.6–22.4). Conclusions: We used a different validation procedure for each of the three methods, and found our estimated levels to be comparable with available measured concentrations. This methodology allowed us to calculate potential drinking water exposure over long periods

Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer : development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data

Background Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Methods Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest-namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial-ENTHUSE M1-in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. Findings 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0.791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0.743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3.32, 95% CI 2.39-4.62, p Interpretation Novel prognostic factors were delineated, and the assessment of 50 methods developed by independent international teams establishes a benchmark for development of methods in the future. The results of this effort show that data-sharing, when combined with a crowdsourced challenge, is a robust and powerful framework to develop new prognostic models in advanced prostate cancer.Peer reviewe

Residential proximity to industrial combustion facilities and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a case–control study

Abstract Background Residence near municipal solid waste incinerators, a major historical source of dioxin emissions, has been associated with increased risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in European studies. The aim of our study was to evaluate residence near industrial combustion facilities and estimates of dioxin emissions in relation to NHL risk in the United States. Methods We conducted a population-based case–control study of NHL (1998–2000) in four National Cancer Institute-Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results centers (Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles, Seattle). Residential histories 15 years before diagnosis (similar date for controls) were linked to an Environmental Protection Agency database of dioxin-emitting facilities for 969 cases and 749 controls. We evaluated proximity (3 and 5 km) to 10 facility types that accounted for \u3e85% of U.S. emissions and a distance-weighted average emission index (AEI [ng toxic equivalency quotient (TEQ)/year]). Results Proximity to any dioxin-emitting facility was not associated with NHL risk (3 km OR = 1.0, 95% CI 0.8-1.3). Risk was elevated for residence near cement kilns (5 km OR = 1.7, 95% CI 0.8-3.3; 3 km OR = 3.8, 95% CI 1.1-14.0) and reduced for residence near municipal solid waste incinerators (5 km OR = 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.9; 3 km OR = 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-1.4). The AEI was not associated with risk of NHL overall. Risk for marginal zone lymphoma was increased for the highest versus lowest quartile (5 km OR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.0-6.8; 3 km OR = 3.0, 95% CI 1.1-8.3). Conclusions Overall, we found no association with residential exposure to dioxins and NHL risk. However, findings for high emissions and marginal zone lymphoma and for specific facility types and all NHL provide some evidence of an association and deserve future study

Residential proximity to industrial combustion facilities and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a case–control study

Abstract Background Residence near municipal solid waste incinerators, a major historical source of dioxin emissions, has been associated with increased risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in European studies. The aim of our study was to evaluate residence near industrial combustion facilities and estimates of dioxin emissions in relation to NHL risk in the United States. Methods We conducted a population-based case–control study of NHL (1998–2000) in four National Cancer Institute-Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results centers (Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles, Seattle). Residential histories 15 years before diagnosis (similar date for controls) were linked to an Environmental Protection Agency database of dioxin-emitting facilities for 969 cases and 749 controls. We evaluated proximity (3 and 5 km) to 10 facility types that accounted for \u3e85% of U.S. emissions and a distance-weighted average emission index (AEI [ng toxic equivalency quotient (TEQ)/year]). Results Proximity to any dioxin-emitting facility was not associated with NHL risk (3 km OR = 1.0, 95% CI 0.8-1.3). Risk was elevated for residence near cement kilns (5 km OR = 1.7, 95% CI 0.8-3.3; 3 km OR = 3.8, 95% CI 1.1-14.0) and reduced for residence near municipal solid waste incinerators (5 km OR = 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.9; 3 km OR = 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-1.4). The AEI was not associated with risk of NHL overall. Risk for marginal zone lymphoma was increased for the highest versus lowest quartile (5 km OR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.0-6.8; 3 km OR = 3.0, 95% CI 1.1-8.3). Conclusions Overall, we found no association with residential exposure to dioxins and NHL risk. However, findings for high emissions and marginal zone lymphoma and for specific facility types and all NHL provide some evidence of an association and deserve future study