Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures.

For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates

Medical Encounter Characteristics of HIV Seroconverters in the US Army and Air Force, 2000–2004

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: Active duty US Army and Air Force military personnel undergo mandatory biennial HIV antibody screening. We compared pre- and post-HIV seroconversion health status by conducting a case-control study, which evaluated all medical encounters and sociodemographic factors among incident HIV seroconverters and HIV-negative controls from June 2000 through February 2004. RESULTS: A total of 274 HIV seroconverters and 6205 HIV-negative personnel were included. In multivariate analysis restricted to male personnel (cases = 261, controls = 5801), single marital status (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 14.37), clinical indicators or symptoms within four years of HIV diagnosis (AOR = 6.22), black race (AOR = 5.88), nonindicator clinical syndromes within 2 years of HIV diagnosis (AOR = 3.31), any mental disorder within 4 years of HIV diagnosis (AOR = 3.04), increasing service-connected time (AOR = 1.69), and older age (AOR = 1.12) were associated with HIV diagnosis among males. A prior history of a sexually transmitted infection (STI) was associated with post-HIV seroconversion STI (OR(M-H) = 4.10). Similarly, a prior history of mental disorder was associated with post-HIV seroconversion mental disorder (OR(M-H) = 4.98). Forty-seven (18%) male cases were hospitalized at least once after HIV diagnosis; infectious diseases, and mental disorders made up 53% of initial admissions. CONCLUSIONS: HIV seroconversion was associated with increased health care-seeking behavior, STIs, and mental disorders, some of which may be amenable to screening. The higher STI rate after HIV diagnosis may partially be a consequence of monitoring, but secondary transmission of STI and possibly HIV require further definition and subsequent tailored preventive interventions

Hepatitis B Vaccine Antibody Response and the Risk of Clinical AIDS or Death

Whether seroresponse to a vaccine such as hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccine can provide a measure of the functional immune status of HIV-infected persons is unknown.This study evaluated the relationship between HBV vaccine seroresponses and progression to clinical AIDS or death. (HR 3.40; 95% CI, 1.39–8.32).

Role of CCL3L1-CCR5 Genotypes in the Epidemic Spread of HIV-1 and Evaluation of Vaccine Efficacy

Polymorphisms in CCR5, the major coreceptor for HIV, and CCL3L1, a potent CCR5 ligand and HIV-suppressive chemokine, are determinants of HIV-AIDS susceptibility. Here, we mathematically modeled the potential impact of these genetic factors on the epidemic spread of HIV, as well as on its prevention.Ro, the basic reproductive number, is a fundamental concept in explaining the emergence and persistence of epidemics. By modeling sexual transmission among HIV+/HIV- partner pairs, we find that Ro estimates, and concordantly, the temporal and spatial patterns of HIV outgrowth are highly dependent on the infecting partners' CCL3L1-CCR5 genotype. Ro was least and highest when the infected partner possessed protective and detrimental CCL3L1-CCR5 genotypes, respectively. The modeling data indicate that in populations such as Pygmies with a high CCL3L1 gene dose and protective CCR5 genotypes, the spread of HIV might be minimal. Additionally, Pc, the critical vaccination proportion, an estimate of the fraction of the population that must be vaccinated successfully to eradicate an epidemic was <1 only when the infected partner had a protective CCL3L1-CCR5 genotype. Since in practice Pc cannot be >1, to prevent epidemic spread, population groups defined by specific CCL3L1-CCR5 genotypes might require repeated vaccination, or as our models suggest, a vaccine with an efficacy of >70%. Further, failure to account for CCL3L1-CCR5-based genetic risk might confound estimates of vaccine efficacy. For example, in a modeled trial of 500 subjects, misallocation of CCL3L1-CCR5 genotype of only 25 (5%) subjects between placebo and vaccine arms results in a relative error of approximately 12% from the true vaccine efficacy.CCL3L1-CCR5 genotypes may impact on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic and, consequently, the observed heterogeneous global distribution of HIV infection. As Ro is lowest when the infecting partner has beneficial CCL3L1-CCR5 genotypes, we infer that therapeutic vaccines directed towards reducing the infectivity of the host may play a role in halting epidemic spread. Further, CCL3L1-CCR5 genotype may provide critical guidance for optimizing the design and evaluation of HIV-1 vaccine trials and prevention programs

FungalTraits:A user-friendly traits database of fungi and fungus-like stramenopiles

The cryptic lifestyle of most fungi necessitates molecular identification of the guild in environmental studies. Over the past decades, rapid development and affordability of molecular tools have tremendously improved insights of the fungal diversity in all ecosystems and habitats. Yet, in spite of the progress of molecular methods, knowledge about functional properties of the fungal taxa is vague and interpretation of environmental studies in an ecologically meaningful manner remains challenging. In order to facilitate functional assignments and ecological interpretation of environmental studies we introduce a user friendly traits and character database FungalTraits operating at genus and species hypothesis levels. Combining the information from previous efforts such as FUNGuild and Fun(Fun) together with involvement of expert knowledge, we reannotated 10,210 and 151 fungal and Stramenopila genera, respectively. This resulted in a stand-alone spreadsheet dataset covering 17 lifestyle related traits of fungal and Stramenopila genera, designed for rapid functional assignments of environmental studies. In order to assign the trait states to fungal species hypotheses, the scientific community of experts manually categorised and assigned available trait information to 697,413 fungal ITS sequences. On the basis of those sequences we were able to summarise trait and host information into 92,623 fungal species hypotheses at 1% dissimilarity threshold

Exploring the environmental strategy of big energy companies to drive sustainability

The purpose of this research is to provide an in-depth evaluation of the environmental strategy of the biggest energy companies to drive sustainability, i.e., for both business and the environment as a collective entity. Rooted in the theory of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), a secondary data analysis was conducted on the top five energy companies (i.e., British Petroleum (BP), Exxon Mobil, Gazprom, Sinopec and Saudi Aramco) as published by Enercom (2016) to investigate their approach to sustainable development. To do so, each company's environmental strategy was evaluated in order to gain a clear understanding of their implemented procedures for sustainable development towards future. This research paper gives an insight in to the main energy companies' impact on nature and assesses how sustainable their strategies are towards environmental issues. Through this evaluation, we clearly identified how climate change forces companies to be responsible towards society, the economy, and the environment. This study's finding contributes to the present body of knowledge and highlights how the big energy companies have taken responsibility for their actions towards environmental issues