Trading Activity and Foreign Exchange Market Quality

This paper studies intraday market quality for currency pairs with very different trading characteristics, the Euro-U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar-U.S. dollar. Two sets of tests - the first based on the ratio of long term to short term variances, and the second based on information spillovers - provide consistent conclusions regarding market quality. The variance ratio analysis shows that market quality is highest for the Euro during European trading and lowest during Asian trading. For the Canadian dollar, market quality is highest during North American trading and lowest during Asian trading. Analysis of information spillovers shows that innovations in returns and volatility for the more heavily-traded Euro predict returns and volatility for the Canadian dollar during Asian and European trading, but innovations for the dollar have predictive power for the Euro during North American trading. Our results suggest that foreign exchange market quality is high, not always when quoting and trading activity are heavy but rather, and somewhat unexpectedly, when activity is not only high, but also geographically focused and concentrated among a limited number of major dealers.

Exchange Rate Variability and the Riskiness of U.S. Multinational Firms:Evidence from the Breakdown of the Bretton Woods System

This study assesses the impact of exchange rate variability on the riskiness of U.S. multinational firms by examining the relation between exchange rate variability and stock return volatility and by decomposing this relation into components of systematic and diversifiable risk. Focusing on two periods around the 1973 switch from fixed to floating exchange rates, we find a significant increase in the volatility of U.S. multinational monthly stock returns corresponding to the period of increased exchange rate variability. This increase in stock return volatility is also significant relative to the increase in stock return volatility for firms in three control samples. Using a single factor market model, we show this increase in total volatility led to a significant increase in market risk (beta) for the multinational firms relative to the control samples between the two periods. Collectively, these results suggest that the increase in exchange rate variability after 1973 was perceived by investors to be associated with an increase in the riskiness of cash flows of multinational firms that required compensation in terms of higher expected returns.

Dynamically mapping tasks with priorities and multiple deadlines in a heterogeneous environment

Includes bibliographical references (pages 166-167).In a distributed heterogeneous computing system, the resources have different capabilities and tasks have different requirements. To maximize the performance of the system, it is essential to assign the resources to tasks (match) and order the execution of tasks on each resource (schedule) to exploit the heterogeneity of the resources and tasks. Dynamic mapping (defined as matching and scheduling) is performed when the arrival of tasks is not known a priori. In the heterogeneous environment considered in this study, tasks arrive randomly, tasks are independent (i.e., no inter-task communication), and tasks have priorities and multiple soft deadlines. The value of a task is calculated based on the priority of the task and the completion time of the task with respect to its deadlines. The goal of a dynamic mapping heuristic in this research is to maximize the value accrued of completed tasks in a given interval of time. This research proposes, evaluates, and compares eight dynamic mapping heuristics. Two static mapping schemes (all arrival information of tasks are known) are designed also for comparison. The performance of the best heuristics is 84% of a calculated upper bound for the scenarios considered

Multi-environment field testing to identify stable sources of resistance to charcoal rot (Macrophomina phaseolina) disease in tropical maize germplasm

The charcoal rot caused by Macrophomina phaseolina is the devastating component of post flowering stalk rot (PFSR) complex which may cause 25 to 32 % yield loss in maize. Therefore for the first time, the study was carried out with multi-environments screening of 137 inbreds at three and 48 maize hybrids at six environments under artificially created epiphytotics at hot-spot locations to identify stable sources of charcoal rot resistance in Indian maize germplasm. Analysis of variance revealed strong effect of genotype by environment interaction on disease response and therefore indicated its complex nature. The mean disease score was ranging from 2.37 to 7.20 in inbreds, and 3.63 to 6.08 in hybrids. Additive main effects and multiplicative Interactions (AMMI) analysis could identifed, DQL1020, DML339, DML1, DQL1019, CM117-1-1 in inbreds and A-7501, CMH08-287, CMH08-292, BIO-562, and CMH08-350 in hybrids as stable sources of charcoal rot resistance. Each testing site viz., Ludhiana, Hyderabad and Delhi was identified as a separate test environment for screening against charcoal rot disease in India. In this study, AMMI model offers a good tool to assess the stability of genotypes and GGE biplot found an efficient tool to identify the mega environments in multi-environment testing. The identified sources of resistance in inbreds can be used in resistant breeding and hybrids can be recommended for cultivation in charcoal rot disease prone area

Genetic structure of Plasmodium falciparum field isolates in eastern and north-eastern India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Molecular techniques have facilitated the studies on genetic diversity of <it>Plasmodium </it>species particularly from field isolates collected directly from patients. The <it>msp-1 </it>and <it>msp-2 </it>are highly polymorphic markers and the large allelic polymorphism has been reported in the block 2 of the <it>msp-1 </it>gene and the central repetitive domain (block3) of the <it>msp-2 </it>gene. Families differing in nucleotide sequences and in number of repetitive sequences (length variation) were used for genotyping purposes. As limited reports are available on the genetic diversity existing among <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>population of India, this report evaluates the extent of genetic diversity in the field isolates of <it>P. falciparum </it>in eastern and north-eastern regions of India.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A study was designed to assess the diversity of <it>msp-1 </it>and <it>msp-2 </it>among the field isolates from India using allele specific nested PCR assays and sequence analysis. Field isolates were collected from five sites distributed in three states namely, Assam, West Bengal and Orissa.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>P. falciparum </it>isolates of the study sites are highly diverse in respect of length as well as sequence motifs with prevalence of all the reported allelic families of <it>msp-1 </it>and <it>msp-2</it>. Prevalence of identical allelic composition as well as high level of sequence identity of alleles suggest a considerable amount of gene flow between the <it>P. falciparum </it>populations of different states. A comparatively higher proportion of multiclonal isolates as well as multiplicity of infection (MOI) was observed among isolates of highly malarious districts Karbi Anglong (Assam) and Sundergarh (Orissa). In all the five sites, R033 family of <it>msp-1 </it>was observed to be monomorphic with an allele size of 150/160 bp. The observed 80–90% sequence identity of Indian isolates with data of other regions suggests that Indian <it>P. falciparum </it>population is a mixture of different strains.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study shows that the field isolates of eastern and north-eastern regions of India are highly diverse in respect of <it>msp-1 </it>(block 2) and <it>msp-2 </it>(central repeat region, block 3). As expected Indian isolates present a picture of diversity closer to southeast Asia, Papua New Guinea and Latin American countries, regions with low to meso-endemicity of malaria in comparison to African regions of hyper- to holo-endemicity.</p

Semaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with obesity and prevalent heart failure: a prespecified analysis of the SELECT trial

Background: Semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, reduces the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in people with overweight or obesity, but the effects of this drug on outcomes in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure are unknown. We report a prespecified analysis of the effect of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide 2·4 mg on ischaemic and heart failure cardiovascular outcomes. We aimed to investigate if semaglutide was beneficial in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease with a history of heart failure compared with placebo; if there was a difference in outcome in patients designated as having heart failure with preserved ejection fraction compared with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; and if the efficacy and safety of semaglutide in patients with heart failure was related to baseline characteristics or subtype of heart failure. Methods: The SELECT trial was a randomised, double-blind, multicentre, placebo-controlled, event-driven phase 3 trial in 41 countries. Adults aged 45 years and older, with a BMI of 27 kg/m2 or greater and established cardiovascular disease were eligible for the study. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) with a block size of four using an interactive web response system in a double-blind manner to escalating doses of once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide over 16 weeks to a target dose of 2·4 mg, or placebo. In a prespecified analysis, we examined the effect of semaglutide compared with placebo in patients with and without a history of heart failure at enrolment, subclassified as heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, or unclassified heart failure. Endpoints comprised MACE (a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and cardiovascular death); a composite heart failure outcome (cardiovascular death or hospitalisation or urgent hospital visit for heart failure); cardiovascular death; and all-cause death. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03574597. Findings: Between Oct 31, 2018, and March 31, 2021, 17 604 patients with a mean age of 61·6 years (SD 8·9) and a mean BMI of 33·4 kg/m2 (5·0) were randomly assigned to receive semaglutide (8803 [50·0%] patients) or placebo (8801 [50·0%] patients). 4286 (24·3%) of 17 604 patients had a history of investigator-defined heart failure at enrolment: 2273 (53·0%) of 4286 patients had heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, 1347 (31·4%) had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and 666 (15·5%) had unclassified heart failure. Baseline characteristics were similar between patients with and without heart failure. Patients with heart failure had a higher incidence of clinical events. Semaglutide improved all outcome measures in patients with heart failure at random assignment compared with those without heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·60-0·87 for MACE; 0·79, 0·64-0·98 for the heart failure composite endpoint; 0·76, 0·59-0·97 for cardiovascular death; and 0·81, 0·66-1·00 for all-cause death; all pinteraction&gt;0·19). Treatment with semaglutide resulted in improved outcomes in both the heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HR 0·65, 95% CI 0·49-0·87 for MACE; 0·79, 0·58-1·08 for the composite heart failure endpoint) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction groups (0·69, 0·51-0·91 for MACE; 0·75, 0·52-1·07 for the composite heart failure endpoint), although patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction had higher absolute event rates than those with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. For MACE and the heart failure composite, there were no significant differences in benefits across baseline age, sex, BMI, New York Heart Association status, and diuretic use. Serious adverse events were less frequent with semaglutide versus placebo, regardless of heart failure subtype. Interpretation: In patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular diease and overweight or obesity, treatment with semaglutide 2·4 mg reduced MACE and composite heart failure endpoints compared with placebo in those with and without clinical heart failure, regardless of heart failure subtype. Our findings could facilitate prescribing and result in improved clinical outcomes for this patient group. Funding: Novo Nordisk

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation