Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Interaction of alcohol intake and cofactors on the risk of cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluation of the interaction between alcohol intake and cofactors [hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), body mass index] and coffee consumption on the risk of cirrhosis. DESIGN: Seven hundred and forty-nine consecutive patients with chronic liver disease referring to units for liver or alcohol diseases in Italy during a 6-months period. Teetotalers were excluded. The odds ratios (OR) for cirrhosis were evaluated using chronic hepatitis cases as the control group. RESULTS: An alcohol intake of more than 3 units/day resulted associated with the likelihood of cirrhosis both in males (OR 4.3; 95% CI=2.5-7.3) and in females (OR 5.7; 95% CI=2.3-14.5). A multiplicative interaction on the risk of cirrhosis between risky alcohol intake and HBsAg or HCV-Ab/HCV-RNA positivity was observed. A reduction of cirrhosis risk was observed in subjects consuming more than 3 alcohol units/day with increasing coffee intake. The OR for the association with cirrhosis decreased from 2.3 (95% CI=1.2-4.4) in subjects drinking 0-2 cups of coffee/day to 1.4 (95% CI=0.6-3.6) in those drinking more than 2 cups/day. CONCLUSIONS: In subjects with an alcohol intake >3 units/day the coexistence of HBV or HCV multiplies the risk of cirrhosis. Coffee represents a modulator of alcoholic cirrhosis risk

Psychological morbidity of celiac disease: a review of the literature

BACKGROUND: Celiac disease has been linked to decreased quality of life and certain mood disorders. The effect of the gluten free diet on these psychological aspects of the disease is still unclear. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this article is to review the literature on psychological morbidity of celiac disease. METHODS: We performed a PubMed search for the time period from 1900 until June 1, 2014, to identify papers on psychological aspects of celiac disease looking specifically at quality of life, anxiety, depression and fatigue. RESULTS: Anxiety, depression and fatigue are common complaints in patients with untreated celiac disease and contribute to lower quality of life. While aspects of these conditions may improve within a few months after starting a gluten-free diet, some patients continue to suffer from significant psychological morbidity. Psychological symptoms may affect the quality of life and the dietary adherence. CONCLUSION: Health care professionals need to be aware of the ongoing psychological burden of celiac disease in order to support patients with this disease

Evaluation of symptoms and palatability in healthy volunteers after ingestion of an iced dessert by using different flavours

It is well-known that digestion has a pivotal role in maintaining a state of wellbeing. The influence of certain foods and some herbal drugs has been ascertained. Epidemiological data show that the Mediterranean diet, with a high consumption of fresh vegetables and fruit, mainly citrus, has a beneficial effect and plays a protective gastrointestinal role. Previously, we assessed the influence on the eventual occurrence of symptoms during digestion of an iced dessert containing a mixture of digestive plant extracts, citrus juices and liquors, showing that its ingestion supports and maintains a good digestive process. Taking into consideration that sensory properties of food may also influence digestion, we also evaluated the palatability of the product. In order to evaluate the effect of different tastes on the digestive processes, we performed a further similar evaluation with two new flavours. The ingestion of these iced desserts at the end of the meal does not cause significant gastrointestinal symptoms. Moreover, palatability median score shows a good appreciation of the products. Therefore, the combination of digestive herbs, citrus juice and liquors in different flavours gives rise to a product with a positive mix of good palatability, favourable acceptance and herbal constituents, able to support and maintain a good digestive condition. Copyright © by BIOLIFE, s.a.s

Psychosocial findings in alcohol-dependent patients before and after three months of total alcohol abstinence

Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) may be associated with several psychological and affective disorders. It is controversial, however, if these symptoms are a cause or rather a consequence of alcohol dependence. There are few data testing simultaneously psychosocial and affective disorders before and after a period of alcohol abstinence. The aim of this study was to perform multiple psychometric evaluations in alcohol-dependent patients before and after 12 weeks of abstinence. Twenty-five alcohol-dependent patients were included in the study. The following psychometric tests were administered at baseline (T0) and after 12 weeks (T1): addiction severity index (ASI), brief psychiatric rating scale (BPRS), social behavior scale (SBS), Sheehan disability scale (DISS), aggression questionnaire (AQ). At T1, 16 (64%) patients were abstinent, 5 (20%) patients dropped out and 4 (16%) patients relapsed. Compared to T0, patients totally abstinent at T1 showed a significant reduction of the scores related to BPRS, BPRS-E and its subscales (except BPRS 5), ASI 1, ASI 2, ASI 3, ASI 6, ASI 7, BSM, AQ, DISS 1, DISS 2, DISS 3 (p < 0.05). No significant changes in ASI 4, ASI 5, DISS 4, and DISS 5, BPRS 5 scores were found at T1 compared to T0. The present study indicates that total alcohol abstinence improves psychometric features, such as alcohol addiction severity, psychiatric rating, social behavior, aggressiveness, and disability. Larger controlled studies are needed to confirm these findings

Penicillamine-related lichenoid dermatitis and utility of zinc acetate in a wilson disease patient with hepatic presentation, anxiety and spect abnormalities

Wilson disease is an autosomal recessive disorder of hepatic copper metabolism with consequent copper accumulation and toxicity in many tissues and consequent hepatic, neurologic and psychiatric disorders. We report a case of Wilson disease with chronic liver disease; moreover, in our patient, presenting also with high levels of state anxiety without depression, 99mTc-ECD- SPECT showed cortical hypoperfusion in frontal lobes, more marked on the left frontal lobe. During the follow-up of our patient, penicillamine was interrupted after the appearance of a lichenoid dermatitis, and zinc acetate permitted to continue the successful treatment of the patient without side-effects. In our case the therapy with zinc acetate represented an effective treatment for a Wilson disease patient in which penicillamine-related side effects appeared. The safety of the zinc acetate allowed us to avoid other potentially toxic chelating drugs; this observation is in line with the growing evidence on the efficacy of the drug in the treatment of Wilson disease. Since most of Wilson disease penicillamine-treated patients do not seem to develop this skin lesion, it could be conceivable that a specific genetic factor is involved in drug response. Further studies are needed for a better clarification of Wilson disease therapy, and in particular to differentiate specific therapies for different Wilson disease phenotypes