Penerapan Algoritma Naïve Bayes Untuk Memprediksi Keputusan Calon Nasabah Dan Nasabah Tetapbank Bri Syariah Menerima Penawaran Program Deposito Berjangka

Bank BRI Syariah memiliki banyak produk yang menarik untuk ditawarkan kepada calon nasabah maupun nasabah tetap berupa produk jangka panjang atau jangka pendek, yang menawarkan banyak keuntungan bagi nasabah itu sendiri. Salah satu produknya adalah Deposito berjangka yang merupakan produk investasi dengan menyimpan uang dan penarikanya hanya bisa dilakukan pada kurun waktu tertentu yang telah di janjikan oleh pihak bank dengan persetujuan nasabah. Dengan telemarketing yang baik oleh pihak bank maka diharapkan calon nasabah dan nasabah tetap mengetahui produk ini.Telemarketing adalah salah satu cara dalam mempromosikan produk-produk atau jasa layanan yang ada di bank. Seorang telemarketing bank harus dapat membuat target nasabah, nasabah mana yang berpotensi untuk meningkatkan deposito dengan melihat data-data nasabah bank yang telah tersimpan dalam database. Dikarenakan database nasabah sangat besar, maka tidak mungkin untuk mencari pola prediksi calon nasabah atau nasabah tetap yang berminat untuk program Deposito dengan cara konvensional.Berdasarkan hal tersebut, pengelolaan data yang sangat besar bisa diatasi dengan memanfaatkan Data Mining yaitu proses iteratif dan interaktif untuk menentukan pola atau model baru yang sempurna, bermanfaat dan dapat dimengerti dalam suatu database yang sangat besar. Data Mining berisi pencarian trend pola yang diinginkan dalam database besar untuk membantu pengambilan keputusan diwaktu yang akan datang. Dengan menggunakan Data Mining diharapkan dapat mengoptimasikan proses prediksi data nasabah oleh seorang telemarketing, sehingga dia mampu menawarkan deposito dengan target calon nasabah atau nasabah tetap yang tepat sasaran. Adapun Teknik Klasifikasi Data Mining menggunakan algoritma Naïve Bayes. Naïve Bayes bekerja sangat efektif saat diuji pada dataset yang besar untuk menentukan pola dimasa lalu dan mencari fungsi yang akan menjadi pola penilaian data dimasa yang akan datang. Untuk mencapai hasil yang diharapkan metode CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining) sangat cocok sebagai solusi, melalui proses business understanding, data understanding, data preparation, modeling, evaluation dan deployment. Dengan ini hasil prediksi akan lebih akurat, sehingga untuk target telemarketing produk Deposito Bank BRI Syariah akan tepat sasaran

Use of real-time observations in an operational ocean data assimilation system: the Mediterranean case

Real-time observations are essential for operational forecasting that in turn can be used to predict changes of the state of the ocean and its associated biochemical fi elds. In addition, real-time observations are useful to detect changes in the past with the shortest delay, to standardize practices in data collection and to exchange data between remote regions of the ocean and seas. Th e drawback is that real-time observations could be less accurate than their delayed mode counterparts due to the time constraints for data dissemination. In situ real-time data are usually decimated to be transmitted in real time (loss of accuracy and resolution), whereas satellite data are corrected with approximate algorithms and less ancillary data. Delayed mode quality control analysis increases the value of the observational data set, fl agging outliers and producing climatological estimates of the state of the system. Th us real-time data, together with a modelling system and the climatological estimates, give the appropriate information for scientifi c studies and applications. Th e principles of operational science started to develop in the 1940s and 1950s, based on the combined use of real-time data and modelling systems that can extend the information from observations in space and time. Operational science is based on a sound knowledge of the dynamics and processes for the space/timescales of interest and operational meteorology and oceanography have started to implement these principles to weather and ocean forecasting activities. In the past 20 years, operational meteorology has become a reality with a network of in situ and satellite observations that has made the weather forecast capable of extending the theoretical limit of predictability of the atmosphere (only one-two days theoretically, now forecasts are useful for more than fi ve days on average). Today meteorological observations are mainly used in their assimilated form even if observations are still collected for specifi c process-oriented studies. Recently the meteorological re-analysis projects (Gibson et al., 1997; Kalnay et al., 1996) have released a wealth of data to be understood and analysed. Th ese data sets are coherent and approximately continuous (daily), fi lling the observational gaps in space and time with a dynamical interpolation scheme. Th e model and the real-time observations are fused in one best estimate of the state of the system by data-assimilation techniques that have been developed to a great degree of sophistication in recent years (Lorenc, 2002). Th e re-analysis data are now forming the basic reference data set to understand climate variability in the atmosphere and upper oceans. Ch20.indd 73Ch20.indd 733 3/7/07 9:58:01 AM Habwatch 734 Dynamical interpolation/extrapolation of observational data for operational forecasting in the ocean began to be investigated at the beginning of the 1980s and the fi rst successful forecasts were carried out in the open ocean (Robinson and Leslie, 1985). Th ese exercises required real-time data that were initially collected with rapid ship surveys realizing adaptive sampling schemes and collecting a combination of traditional recoverable and expendable instruments (CTD, XBTs). At the same time but in a totally independent way, shelf scale and coastal real-time data from moored and drifting sensors such as meteorological buoys and sea-level stations started to be used for shelf scale storm surge operational forecasting (Prandle, 2002). Operational oceanography is now building on this experience and considers real-time measurements from opportunity platforms and satellites in a manner very similar to operational meteorology. Th is chapter aims to show the use of real-time observations in a state-of-the-art ocean-predicting system realized in the Mediterranean. We discuss the pre-processing schemes required to properly assimilate the observations into an operational nowcasting/ forecasting system, elucidate the role and impact of diff erent observations in the assimilation system and show the use of real-time data to evaluate quality of the modelling system. We start with the description of the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) real-time observing system and pre-processing quality control in Section 20.2, we then describe the modelling and assimilation system in relation to the impact of diff erent real-time observations in Section 20.3. In Section 20.4 we evaluate the consistency, quality and accuracy of the forecasting system using model-data intercomparison and Section 20.5 offers conclusion

Impact of Multi-altimeter Sea Level Assimilation in the Mediterranean Forecasting Model

In this paper we analyze the impact of multi-satellite altimeter observations assimilation in a high-resolution Mediterranean model. Four different altimeter missions (Jason-1, Envisat, Topex/Poseidon interleaved and Geosat Follow-On) are used over a 7-month period [September 2004, March 2005] to study the impact of the assimilation of one to four satellites on the analyses quality. The study highlights three important results. First, it shows the positive impact of the altimeter data on the analyses. The corrected fields capture missing structures of the circulation and eddies are modified in shape, position and intensity with respect to the model simulation. Secondly, the study demonstrates the improvement in the analyses induced by each satellite. The impact of the addition of a second satellite is almost equivalent to the improvement given by the introduction of the first satellite: the second satellite data brings a 12% reduction of the root mean square of the differences between analyses and observations for the Sea Level Anomaly (SLA). The third and fourth satellite also significantly improve the rms, with more than 3% reduction for each of them. Finally, it is shown that Envisat and Geosat Follow-On additions to J1 impact the analyses more than the addition of Topex/Poseidon suggesting that the across track spatial resolution is still one of the important aspects of a multi-mission satellite observing system. This result could support the concept of multi-mission altimetric monitoring done by complementary horizontal resolution satellite orbits

Kesuburan Perairan Ditinjau dari Kandungan Klorofil-a Fitoplankton : Studi Kasus di Sungai Wedung, Demak

Perairan Sungai Wedung merupakan ekosistem pesisir yang banyak dimanfaatkan untuk berbagai kegiatan manusia. Hal tersebut tentunya berpengaruh terhadap kesuburan perairan Sungai Wedung. Kesuburan di perairan tersebut dipengaruhi oleh plankton, faktor kimia, fisika dan juga kandungan Klorofil-A. Pengukuran kandungan klorofil-a fitoplankton merupakan salah satu alat pengukuran kesuburan suatu perairan. Klorofil-a fitoplankton adalah suatu pigmen aktif dalam sel tumbuhan yang mempunyai peran penting dalam berlangsungnya proses fotosintesis perairan. Penelitian dilakukan pada bulan April – Mei 2013 di Sungai Wedung, Demak bertujuan untuk mengetahui aktivitas manusia terhadap sebaran klorofil-a, keterkaitan antara klorofil-a dan kelimpahan fitoplankton dan tingkat kesuburan perairan berdasarkan kandungan klorofil-a fitoplankton. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode studi kasus dengan teknik pengambilan sampel menggunakan metode “Sample Survey Method”. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hasil analisis data klorofil menggunakan metode anova tersarang (nested anova) diperoleh nilai P untuk stasiun cukup besar sehingga tidak memberikan perbedaan yang nyata pada taraf kepercayaan 95 %. Akan tetapi perbedaan akan nyata pada taraf 90%. Hubungan antara klorofil-a dengan kelimpahan fitoplankton secara linear menunjukkan nilai keeratan yang tinggi dengan nilai koefisien korelasi sebesar 0,93 dan koefisien determinasi sebesar 0,8633 dimana 86% klorofil-a dipengaruhi oleh kelimpahan fitoplankton. Berdasarkan nilai rata-rata klorofil-a yang diperoleh sebesar 1,039863 mg/l dapat disimpulkan bahwa perairan Sungai Wedung tergolong kedalam perairan yang bersifat oligotrofik

A nested Atlantic-Mediterranean Sea general circulation model for operational forecasting

A new numerical general circulation ocean model for the Mediterranean Sea has been implemented nested within an Atlantic general circulation model within the framework of the Marine Environment and Security for the European Area project (MERSEA, Desaubies, 2006). A 4- year twin experiment was carried out from January 2004 to December 2007 with two different models to evaluate the impact on the Mediterranean Sea circulation of open lateral boundary conditions in the Atlantic Ocean. One model considers a closed lateral boundary in a large Atlantic box and the other is nested in the same box in a global ocean circulation model. Impact was observed comparing the two simulations with independent observations: ARGO for temperature and salinity profiles and tide gauges and along-track satellite observations for the sea surface height. The improvement in the nested Atlantic-Mediterranean model with respect to the closed one is particularly evident in the salinity characteristics of the Modified Atlantic Water and in the Mediterranean sea level seasonal variability

Daily oceanographic analyses by the Mediterranean basin scale assimilation system

This study presents the upgrade of the Optimal Interpolation scheme used in the basin scale assimilation scheme of the Mediterranean Forecasting System . The modifications include a daily analysis cycle, the assimilation of ARGO float profiles, the implementation of the geostrophic balance in the background error covariance matrix and the initialisation of the analyses. A series of numerical experiments showed that each modification had a positive impact on the accuracy of the analyses: The daily cycle improved the representation of the processes with a relatively high temporal variability, the assimilation of ARGO floats profiles significantly improved the salinity analyses quality, the geostrophically balanced background error covariances improved the accuracy of the surface elevation analyses, and the initialisation removed the barotropic adjustment in the forecast first time steps starting from the analysis

Ileocecal Fistula Caused by Multiple Foreign Magnetic Bodies Ingestion

The incidence of accidental foreign body (FBs) ingestion is 100,000 cases/year in the US, with over than 80% of cases occurring in children below 5 years of age. Although a single FB may pass spontaneously and uneventfully through the digestive tract, the ingestion of multiple magnetics can cause serious morbidity due to proximate attraction through the intestinal wall. Morbidity and mortality depend on a prompt and correct diagnosis which is often difficult and delayed due to the patient's age and because the accidental ingestion may go unnoticed. We report our experience in the treatment of an 11-year-old child who presented to the emergency department with increasing abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhea, and fever. Surgery evidenced an ileocecal fistula secondary to multiple magnetic FB ingestion with attraction by both sides of the intestinal wall. A 5-centimeter ileal resection was performed, and the cecal fistula was closed with a longitudinal manual suture. The child was discharged at postoperative day 8. After one year, the patient's clinical condition was good

Income Disparity and Healthcare Utilization: Lessons from Indonesia’s National Health Insurance Claim Data

Background: Indonesia’s National Health Insurance Program, known as Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional (JKN), has a variety of membership pathways for those wishing to gain access. Claim data from JKN offers a cost-effective way of observing who is accessing healthcare services and what types of services are being used. This study is a novel attempt to measure disparities amongst JKN users in their engagement with services, providing an opportunity to reflect on patterns of use. Methods: Using claims data collected from JKN users between 2015–2016, we used the Ordinary Least Square estimation model to compare health services utilization among subsidized and non-subsidized users. We focused primarily on the individual use of the hospital for outpatient and inpatient treatment. Results: Analysis reveals that subsidized users access primary healthcare services more frequently than non-subsidized users. Conversely, non-subsidized users access secondary and tertiary health care services more frequently than other users. Subsidized users who utilize secondary and tertiary health care tend to suffer more severe health illnesses than non-subsidized members. Conclusions: This study concludes that income disparity affects healthcare utilization. Non-subsidized members are more likely than subsidized members to access secondary and tertiary health care services. Our study offers evidence of the potential underutilization of secondary and tertiary healthcare (STHC) by subsidized members, which could lead to inefficiency since subsidized members seeking STHC treatment had severe health conditions, thus needing to be treated longer and requiring higher healthcare expenditures

Clinical Features and Prevalence of Spondyloarthritis in a Cohort of Italian Patients Presenting with Acute Nongranulomatous Anterior Uveitis

Purpose. To describe the clinical features of acute nongranulomatous anterior uveitis (NGAU) patients and to estimate the prevalence of concomitant spondyloarthritis (SpA). Methods. Retrospective study of consecutive patients affected by NGAU referred to the Ocular Immunology Unit of the AUSL-IRCCS di Reggio Emilia, Italy, between January 2016 and January 2019. All patients underwent ophthalmic evaluation and blood test with HLA-B27 typing and were referred to a rheumatologist to identify any undiagnosed SpA. SpA was classified according to the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) criteria in axial or peripheral SpA. Patients were divided into two groups: NGAU with associated SpA (SpA+) and NGAU without SpA (SpA-). Clinical and demographic features of the two groups, including sex, HLA-B27, family history of rheumatic disease, uveitis laterality, course, and severity of ocular inflammation, complications, and treatment, were compared. Results. Ninety-nine patients with NGAU were enrolled, of whom 36 (36%) with a diagnosis of SpA: 14 with peripheral SpA and 22 with axial SpA. The prevalence of SpA was higher in HLA-B27-positive patients than in HLA-B27-negative patients (50% vs. 15%, p<0.0001). The multivariate logistic regression (R2=0.28) for SpA diagnosis identified as significant predictive factors: age at diagnosis (odds ratio OR=0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91-0.99) and HLA-B27+ (OR=5.32, 95% CI: 1.80-15.70). Conclusions. Our results confirmed the high prevalence of undiagnosed SpA in patients with NGAU, suggesting that, regardless of HLA-B27 status, in the presence of IBP and/or peripheral arthritis, patients with NGAU must be referred to the rheumatologist to allow earlier diagnosis

The Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is operationally working since year 2000 and it is continuously improved in the frame of international projects. The system is part of the Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network-MOON and MFS is coordinated and operated by the Italian Group of Operational Oceanography (GNOO). The latest upgrades and integration to MFS has been undertaken in the EU-MERSEA and BOSS4GMES Projects. Since October 2005 ten days forecasts are produced daily as well as 15 days of analyses once a week. The daily forecast and weekly analysis data are available in real time to the users through a dedicated ftp service and every day a web bulletin is published on the web site (http://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/mfs). A continuous evaluation in near real time of the forecasts and analyses produced by MFS has been developed in order to continuously verify the system and to provide useful information to the users. The R&D is focused on different aspects of the system. A new basin scale ocean model nested with operational MERCATOR global model has been developed and run in real time operationally for a test period together with a new assimilation scheme based on the 3DVAR. This system is now under evaluation. Important activities have been carried out to: implement and test a Bayesian methodologies of Ensemble and Super-Ensemble for the Mediterranean sea; produce 20 years of re-analysis; re-formulate the air-sea fluxes bulk formulae; develop dedicated products to support particular request of end users such as: indicators, real time oil spill forecasting, search & rescue