IMPACTS OF INCORPORATING LAND EXCHANGES BETWEEN FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE IN SECTOR MODELS

The forest and agriculture sectors are linked by having a portion of their land bases suitable for use in either sector. A substantial part of the southern land base is suitable for either forestry or agriculture use, with most of forestation on U.S. agriculture land in the South. We examine how land exchanges between forestry and agriculture are influenced by specific federal conservation and farm support policies, including changes in the Conservation Reserve Program. Reallocation of land is a significant part of the sectors' responses to the policies, along with intensification of timber management on existing southern forests.Agriculture, Conservation, Forest sector, Land use, Projections, Land Economics/Use,

The Combined Optimization of Log Bucking and Sawing Strategies

Determination of optimal bucking and sawing policies is linked in a common model. The core of this model is a linear program (LP) that selects stem bucking and log sawing policies to maximize profits given an input distribution of raw material. Product output is controlled by price-volume relationships that simulate product demand curves. The model uses a three stage solution process performed iteratively until identical solution bases are obtained. A variation of the Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition principle is used, linking the three models through the use of the Lagrange multipliers from the LP. The procedure is demonstrated for a sample sawmill. The revenue gain from using the policies suggested by the integrated model over those found by the bucking and sawing programs working separately was found to be 26%-36%

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOUTHERN FORESTS

A multiperiod regional mathematical programming model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the southern U.S. forestry sector. Scenarios for forest biological response to climate change are developed for small and large changes in forest growth rates. Resulting changes in timber supply have economic impacts on producers and consumers in forest products markets, both nationally and regionally. Conclusions include outer dimensions of global climate change impacts and potential effects of smaller biological responses on the forestry sector both nationally and in the U.S. South. Relative impacts are found to be larger for producers than for consumers, and southern producers experience relatively greater changes in economic welfare.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Evaluating land-use and private forest management responses to a potential forest carbon offset sales program in western Oregon (USA)

We describe the use of linked land-use and forest sector models to simulate the effects of carbon offset sales on private forest owners' land-use and forest management decisions in western Oregon (USA). Our work focuses on forest management decisions rather than afforestation, allows full forest sector price adjustment to land-use changes, and incorporates time-dependent costs and restrictions of offset programs. The land-use model utilizes structure count data on some 21,000 plots spanning 30 years. The intertemporal optimizing forest sector model employs mill-level demand and FIA plot-level inventory. Our linked simulation modeling projects that an offset sales program could reduce forest land loss to development in western Oregon by about 4700 acres over the 2010-2060 simulation period for each $1 increase in the carbon price. At$10 per tonne CO₂, regional private carbon stocks would be roughly stabilized at current levels over the period to 2060. Rotations would lengthen on enrolled lands, as expected, but use of planting, thinning and uneven-aged management would decline.Keywords: Climate change, Silviculture, Carbon markets, Carbon storage, Forest land developmen

Forest Measurement and Biometrics in Forest Management: Status and Future Needs of the Pacific Northwest USA

Forest measurement and biometrics (FMB) programs have been at the heart of forestry education in North America since its beginnings at the Biltmore Forest School more than 100 years ago. Over the intervening period, the field of forestry has changed in critical ways. There are many forest management and policy issues that, at first glance, do not appear to involve FMB but which, on further examination, are found to be closely linked. In this regard, FMB has both an “inside” and “outside.” The outside part faces interactions with its clients and front-line sciences (e.g., forest ecology, silviculture, etc.) which bring new data-analytic ideas to FMB. The clients and professionals in these allied sciences need solutions to pressing quantitative questions. The inside face relates to the need to extend the structure of statistical inference, integrate emerging technologies, and adapt mathematical and statistical precepts to FMB needs. In this essay, we provide a brief overview of the current diversity of FMB applications using examples from business, policy analysis, and ecosystem and landscape analysis; offer our views on the most critical challenges facing FMB researchers and practitioners in the 21st Century; and outline ways how FMB professionals and academic forestry programs might cooperate to meet these challenges. We assert that FMB needs to be responsive to contemporary resource management challenges and address the many land management challenges in the Pacific Northwest and around the world.Keywords: forest measurement and biometrics, decision-support, landscape level analysis, quantifying timber and nontimber resourcesKeywords: quantifying timber and nontimber resources, forest measurement and biometrics, decision-support, landscape level analysi

Teaching in Contemporary Forest Resources Curricula: Applications to Courses in Forest Measurements and Biometrics

Foresters face new and evolving challenges as society reconsiders the balance of its interests between wood production and the provision of ecosystem services in the management of forests. Whatever paths this process may take, sound and broad-based decisions will continue to require accurate and relevant measurements of current forest conditions and projections of future conditions under alternative management programs. Forest measurements and biometrics (FMB) will remain a key component of future forest management and a critical element in the education of future forest managers. As professors who both teach and do research in FMB, we offer teaching goals that we believe will improve FMB education in forestry schools to meet future needs. In the following sections, we outline teaching goals for university-level instruction in forest resources curricula and the roles of FMB in modern forestry. We then identify what we feel are the most critical challenges in teaching and learning FMB and discuss selected strategies to meet teaching objectives for FMB. A fourth section presents an overview of how selected strategies can be integrated into FMB classes, including examples and comments on the role that new technology might play in meeting the above-described challenges. The final section summarizes our main points and provides concluding remarks.This is the author's peer-reviewed final manuscript, as accepted by the publisher. The published article is copyrighted by the Society of American Foresters and can be found at: http://www.safnet.org/publications/jof/index.cfm.Keywords: forest inventory and monitoring, teaching applied statistics, Pacific Northwest, forest analysis, forest pedagog

NOS1AP is a novel molecular target and critical factor in TDP-43 pathology

Cappelli et al. reported that Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein is a co-regulated transcript of the TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa, reduced in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal lobar degeneration patients with TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa pathology. Overall, their results highlight Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein as a novel druggable disease-relevant gene in TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa-related proteinopathies.Many lines of evidence have highlighted the role played by heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoproteins in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. In this study, we have aimed to identify transcripts co-regulated by TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa and highly conserved heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoproteins which have been previously shown to regulate TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa toxicity (deleted in azoospermia-associated protein 1, heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein -Q, -D, -K and -U). Using the transcriptome analyses, we have uncovered that Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein mRNA is a direct TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa target, and in flies, its modulation alone can rescue TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa pathology. In primary mouse cortical neurons, we show that TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa mediated downregulation of Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein expression strongly affects the NMDA-receptor signalling pathway. In human patients, the downregulation of Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein mRNA strongly correlates with TAR DNA-binding protein 43 kDa proteinopathy as measured by cryptic Stathmin-2 and Unc-13 homolog A cryptic exon inclusion. Overall, our results demonstrate that Nitric Oxide Synthase 1 Adaptor Protein may represent a novel disease-relevant gene, potentially suitable for the development of new therapeutic strategies

Comparative effectiveness and safety of non-vitamin K antagonists for atrial fibrillation in clinical practice: GLORIA-AF Registry

Background and purpose: Prospectively collected data comparing the safety and effectiveness of individual non-vitamin K antagonists (NOACs) are lacking. Our objective was to directly compare the effectiveness and safety of NOACs in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: In GLORIA-AF, a large, prospective, global registry program, consecutive patients with newly diagnosed AF were followed for 3 years. The comparative analyses for (1) dabigatran vs rivaroxaban or apixaban and (2) rivaroxaban vs apixaban were performed on propensity score (PS)-matched patient sets. Proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for outcomes of interest. Results: The GLORIA-AF Phase III registry enrolled 21,300 patients between January 2014 and December 2016. Of these, 3839 were prescribed dabigatran, 4015 rivaroxaban and 4505 apixaban, with median ages of 71.0, 71.0, and 73.0 years, respectively. In the PS-matched set, the adjusted HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for dabigatran vs rivaroxaban were, for stroke: 1.27 (0.79–2.03), major bleeding 0.59 (0.40–0.88), myocardial infarction 0.68 (0.40–1.16), and all-cause death 0.86 (0.67–1.10). For the comparison of dabigatran vs apixaban, in the PS-matched set, the adjusted HRs were, for stroke 1.16 (0.76–1.78), myocardial infarction 0.84 (0.48–1.46), major bleeding 0.98 (0.63–1.52) and all-cause death 1.01 (0.79–1.29). For the comparison of rivaroxaban vs apixaban, in the PS-matched set, the adjusted HRs were, for stroke 0.78 (0.52–1.19), myocardial infarction 0.96 (0.63–1.45), major bleeding 1.54 (1.14–2.08), and all-cause death 0.97 (0.80–1.19). Conclusions: Patients treated with dabigatran had a 41% lower risk of major bleeding compared with rivaroxaban, but similar risks of stroke, MI, and death. Relative to apixaban, patients treated with dabigatran had similar risks of stroke, major bleeding, MI, and death. Rivaroxaban relative to apixaban had increased risk for major bleeding, but similar risks for stroke, MI, and death. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT01468701, NCT01671007. Date of registration: September 2013