A new framework to identify and assess hidden assumptions in the background knowledge of a risk assessment

A risk assessment has a more or less subjective nature, as the analyst needs to make assumptions, analyse data, use models, and so on, to produce risk-related knowledge of the phenomena of interest. This background knowledge that forms the foundation of a risk assessment can be more or less strong, implying that it needs to be taken into consideration when describing and communicating risks. To meet this challenge, different methods have been developed to evaluate and inform the decision-maker about the strength of the background knowledge. For all these methods to be fully informative, the content of the background knowledge needs to be of good quality, covering, for example, all the relevant assumptions. To identify all the relevant assumptions, however, is not a trivial task, and the risk of missing assumptions increases with the complexity of the situation of interest. Hidden assumptions, which are not considered or identified, may induce false confidence in the risk assessment, its results and recommendations. This paper suggests a framework, using a systems approach, to identify and assess the background knowledge, as a means to reduce the risk of missing critical knowledge and obtain a more complete background knowledge, on which risk can be assessed.publishedVersio

Can the use of road safety measures on national roads in Norway be interpreted as an informal application of the ALARP principle?

The ALARP principle, stating that risks should be reduced to a level “As Low As Reasonably Practicable”, is widely known and discussed in risk management. The principle is flexible, as the interpretation of the key concepts of reasonable and practicable can be adapted to different contexts. This paper discusses whether the use of road safety measures on national roads in Norway can be interpreted as an informal application of the ALARP-principle. According to official guidelines, priority setting for major road investments should be based on cost-benefit analysis. Most road safety measures are low-cost projects that have traditionally not been subject to cost-benefit analysis. A use of these measures regarded as reasonable in the ALARP sense may include considerations of cost, efficiency and fair distribution. Data on 328 road safety measures implemented around 2000 is used to evaluate factors influencing their use. It is argued that the use of these measures is consistent with an informal application of the ALARP-principle.acceptedVersio

Utilizing students' feedback to ensure quality in teaching and learning: A lesson from covid-19

In this article we investigate the impact of COVID-19 on teaching quality and student active teaching. The data used for the analysis is from more than 4,000 students at the University of Stavanger, collected for the Study Barometer, one of the most important metrics for assessing student satisfaction in higher education, in the period 2018-2020. Special attention is given to the teaching quality index and the active student participation in teaching index. Comparisons of the data from 2020 with the data given in the period 2018-2019 show few significant differences. For the Faculty of Health Sciences, however, there are strong significant differences for both the teaching quality index and the student active participation in teaching index. We reflect upon and discuss factors that may have contributed to these differences and show how a large-scale survey can identify drawbacks in teaching and learning in higher education.publishedVersio

On the use of criteria based on the SMART acronym to assess quality of performance indicators for safety management in process industries

Management of safety, and barriers in particular, includes using information expressing performance, i.e. use of safety performance indicators. For this information to be useful, the indicators should demonstrate adequate quality. In other words, they should satisfy some predefined set of quality criteria. Without showing adequate quality, the indicators are generally unable to provide sufficient support for barrier management, which could result in poor decisions. In this article, the use of the SMART criteria is considered to assess the quality of safety performance indicators in process industries. SMART being an acronym for ‘specificity’, ‘measurability’ or ‘manageability’, ‘achievability’, ‘relevancy’ and ‘time-based’, covering five key aspects and criteria for assessing the quality of an indicator. A discussion on whether the indicators are able to demonstrate adequate quality by satisfying these criteria has been conducted. The finding is that all of the SMART criteria should be satisfied for a safety performance indicator to demonstrate acceptable quality and to be regarded as useful to support barrier management decision-making. However, it has also been observed that including the ‘M’ criterion in the assessment of quality is not needed. When all the other criteria are satisfied there is no way the conclusions could be misleading as a result of measurability or manageability aspects. Hence, for safety performance indicator quality, only four of the criteria are assessed and suggested for such situations to shorten the acronym to ‘STAR’. A key safety indicator used in downstream process facilities, i.e. ‘dangerous fluid overfilling events’, motivated from the 2005 Texas City refinery accident, is used to illustrate the situation. The indicator is also applied to another incident, the Buncefield oil storage depot's accident in 2005, to provide a broader context for using it. The findings in this article could also be applied beyond the context studied. This means that, despite focusing on safety indicators in the process industries, the findings are considered as relevant and applicable to other types of performance indicators and to other energy industries.publishedVersio

Improving the decision-making basis by strengthening the risk assessments of unexploded ordnance and explosive remnants of war

For many countries, the legacy of armed conflict in the form of unexploded ordnance has a severe impact on society and daily life, as millions of tonnes of explosive remnants of war represent a grave threat to both the environment and societal safety and security. Recent and dramatic changes in the security situation in Europe sadly demonstrate that explosive remnants of war are not, however, only a thing of the past. This makes it especially relevant to evaluate how we assess and manage this risk today and how, if possible, this practice could be improved. In the present paper, we will outline some of the particularities that differentiate risk assessments of unexploded ordnance from other, more familiar, risks and discuss whether the current methodology can be considered relevant and appropriate. We find that the different risk assessment methodologies generally in use today, as described in applicable guidelines and regulations, are principally unsuitable for this use and, in addition, sometimes also ambiguous, inconsistent and incompatible. In particular, we find that any model based on a risk assessment that does not include an evaluation of background knowledge and associated uncertainties cannot be regarded as an optimal or appropriate risk assessment tool, when assessing a risk typically characterized by high complexity and uncertainty. The conclusion of this investigation is that the current risk assessment methodology for assessing risks related to unexploded ordnance and explosive remnants of war urgently needs to be revised, in order to improve the decision-making basis.publishedVersio

Assessing safety climate in prehospital settings: Testing psychometric properties of a common structural model in a cross-sectional and prospective study

Background Little research exists on patient safety climate in the prehospital context. The purpose of this article is to test and validate a safety climate measurement model for the prehospital environment, and to explore and develop a theoretical model measuring associations between safety climate factors and the outcome variable transitions and handoffs. Methods A web-based survey design was utilized. An adjusted short version of the instrument Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture (HSOPSC) was developed into a hypothetical structural model. Three samples were obtained. Two from air ambulance workers in 2012 and 2016, with respectively 83 and 55% response rate, and the third from the ground ambulance workers in 2016, with 26% response rate. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was applied to test validity and psychometric properties. Internal consistency was estimated and descriptive data analysis was performed. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was applied to assess the theoretical model developed for the prehospital setting. Results A post-hoc modified instrument consisting of six dimensions and 17 items provided overall acceptable psychometric properties for all samples, i.e. acceptable Chronbach’s alphas (.68–.86) and construct validity (model fit values: SRMR; .026–.056, TLI; .95–.98, RMSEA; .031–.052, CFI; .96–.98). A common structural model could also be established. Conclusions The results provided a validated instrument, the Prehospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture short version (PreHSOPSC-S), for measuring patient safety climate in a prehospital context. We also demonstrated a positive relation between safety climate dimensions from leadership to unit level, from unit to individual level, and from individual level on the outcome dimension related to transitions and handoffs. Safe patient transitions and handoffs are considered an important outcome of prehospital deliveries; hence, new theory and a validated model will constitute an important contribution to the prehospital safety climate research.publishedVersio

On the use of the ‘Return Of Safety Investments’ (ROSI) measure for decision-making in the chemical processing industry

Due to the high potential of chemical and process industry to damage people, as well as to cause environmental contamination, there is a need of objective criteria and methods supporting plant operators to make decisions and optimise investments in safety measures. Currently, the use of risk-based approaches is popular in order to prioritize criticalities, based on the results of risk assessments; this approach is usually combined with cost-benefit analyses that provide criterions in the decision-making process. A commonly used framework to prioritise safety measures is based on the calculation of the return of safety investments (ROSI), which quantifies the expected return of the investment in safety with respect to the invested resources. In this paper the usefulness of such a framework is discussed and the need for an extension is shown using a case-study from the chemical processing industry. The study concluded that the ROSI should be used with caution, because it does not give a sufficient weight to uncertainties as it is based on the use of expected values. Some improvements to the framework are suggested, i.e. the assessment of ROSI given an accidental event and to highlight the importance of reflecting the strength of knowledge on which the ROSI metric is based.publishedVersio

Can the use of road safety measures on national roads in Norway be interpreted as an informal application of the ALARP principle?

The ALARP principle, stating that risks should be reduced to a level “As Low As Reasonably Practicable”, is widely known and discussed in risk management. The principle is flexible, as the interpretation of the key concepts of reasonable and practicable can be adapted to different contexts. This paper discusses whether the use of road safety measures on national roads in Norway can be interpreted as an informal application of the ALARP-principle. According to official guidelines, priority setting for major road investments should be based on cost-benefit analysis. Most road safety measures are low-cost projects that have traditionally not been subject to cost-benefit analysis. A use of these measures regarded as reasonable in the ALARP sense may include considerations of cost, efficiency and fair distribution. Data on 328 road safety measures implemented around 2000 is used to evaluate factors influencing their use. It is argued that the use of these measures is consistent with an informal application of the ALARP-principle.publishedVersio

Training and assessment of non-technical skills in Norwegian helicopter emergency services: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study

Background Deficient non-technical skills (NTS) among providers of critical care in helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) is a threat to patient and operational safety. Skills can be improved through simulation-based training and assessment. A previous study indicated that physicians underwent less frequent training compared to pilots and HEMS crew members (HCM) and that all professional groups in Norwegian HEMS received limited training in how to cope with fatigue. Since then, training initiatives and a fatigue risk management project has been initiated. Our study aimed to explore if the frequency of simulation-based training and assessment of NTS in Norwegian HEMS has changed since 2011 following these measures. Methods A cross-sectional web-based survey from October through December 2016, of physicians, HCM and pilots from all civilian Norwegian HEMS-bases reporting the overall extent of simulation-based training and assessment of NTS. Results Of 214 invited, 109 responses were eligible for analysis. The frequency of simulation-based training and assessment of NTS has increased significantly for all professional groups in Norwegian HEMS, most prominently for the physicians. For all groups, the frequency of assessment is generally lower than the frequency of training. Conclusions Physicians in Norwegian HEMS seem to have adjusted to the NTS training culture of the other crew member groups. This might be a consequence of improved NTS training programs. The use of behavioural marker systems systematically in HEMS should be emphasized.publishedVersio

Mengden av organiserte læringsaktiviteter og sammenhengen med studentenes motivasjon, egeninnsats og overordnede tilfredshet med studiet

I høgskole- og universitetsstudier er det stor forskjell på mengden av læringsaktiviteter som organiseres av institusjonene. Det er med dette utgangspunktet vi i denne studien vil undersøke hvorvidt det er sammenheng mellom mengden av organiserte læringsaktiviteter og studentenes motivasjon, egeninnsats og overordnede tilfredshet med studiet. Tilbakemeldinger fra over 1700 studenter ved Universitetet i Stavanger, samlet inn til Studiebarometeret i 2018 danner grunnlaget for studien. Dataene viser at det ikke er signifikant sammenheng mellom mengden av organiserte læringsaktiviteter og studentenes motivasjon, egeninnsats eller studentenes overordnede tilfredshet med studiet. Dette trenger imidlertid ikke å bety at slike sammenhenger ikke finnes, men at sammenhengene kan være mer komplekse enn hva vi klarer å fange opp i denne studien. Det er med dette grunnlaget at vi avslutningsvis i artikkelen reflekterer og diskuterer rundt ulike didaktiske og pedagogiske forhold som kan ha påvirkning på den undervisningen og læringen som foregår.publishedVersio