Zombies: a simple discrete model of the apocalypse

A simple discrete-time two-dimensional dynamical system is constructed and analyzed numerically, with modelling motivations drawn from the zombie virus of popular horror fiction, and with suggestions for further exercises or extensions suitable for an introductory undergraduate course

Zombies: a simple discrete model of the apocalypse

A simple discrete-time two-dimensional dynamical system is constructed and analyzed numerically, with modelling motivations drawn from the zombie virus of popular horror fiction, and with suggestions for further exercises or extensions suitable for an introductory undergraduate course

The robustness, link-species relationship and network properties of model food webs

New results are collected using the Webworld model which simulates evolutionary food web construction with population dynamics (Drossel et al., 2001 [1]). We show that it supports a link-species relationship of neither constant link-density nor constant connectance, and new properties for the food webs are calculated including clustering coefficients and stability in the sense of community robustness to species deletion. Time-series for more than 40 properties of the taxonomic and trophic webs are determined over the course of individual simulations. Robustness is found to be positively correlated with connectance, but negatively with diversity, and we study the long-term development of model webs including the distribution of extinction events in a simulation with 108 speciation event

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

SummaryBackground Azithromycin has been proposed as a treatment for COVID-19 on the basis of its immunomodulatoryactions. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of azithromycin in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.Methods In this randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19Therapy [RECOVERY]), several possible treatments were compared with usual care in patients admitted to hospitalwith COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 176 hospitals in the UK. Eligible and consenting patients wererandomly allocated to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus azithromycin 500 mg once perday by mouth or intravenously for 10 days or until discharge (or allocation to one of the other RECOVERY treatmentgroups). Patients were assigned via web-based simple (unstratified) randomisation with allocation concealment andwere twice as likely to be randomly assigned to usual care than to any of the active treatment groups. Participants andlocal study staff were not masked to the allocated treatment, but all others involved in the trial were masked to theoutcome data during the trial. The primary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treatpopulation. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936.Findings Between April 7 and Nov 27, 2020, of 16 442 patients enrolled in the RECOVERY trial, 9433 (57%) wereeligible and 7763 were included in the assessment of azithromycin. The mean age of these study participants was65·3 years (SD 15·7) and approximately a third were women (2944 [38%] of 7763). 2582 patients were randomlyallocated to receive azithromycin and 5181 patients were randomly allocated to usual care alone. Overall,561 (22%) patients allocated to azithromycin and 1162 (22%) patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days(rate ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·87–1·07; p=0·50). No significant difference was seen in duration of hospital stay (median10 days [IQR 5 to >28] vs 11 days [5 to >28]) or the proportion of patients discharged from hospital alive within 28 days(rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 0·98–1·10; p=0·19). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, nosignificant difference was seen in the proportion meeting the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilationor death (risk ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·87–1·03; p=0·24).Interpretation In patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, azithromycin did not improve survival or otherprespecified clinical outcomes. Azithromycin use in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 should be restrictedto patients in whom there is a clear antimicrobial indication

The interaction between predator strategy and prey competition in a pair of multi-predator multi-prey lattices

A computational study of a system of ten prey phenotypes and either one or ten predator phenotypes with a range of foraging behaviours, arranged on two separate one-dimensional lattices, is presented. Mutation between nearest neighbours along the prey lattice occurs at a constant rate, and mutation may or may not be enabled for the predators. The significance of competition amongst the prey is investigated by testing a variety of distributions of the relative intraspecific and interspecific competition. We also study the influence this has on the survival and population size of predator phenotypes with a variety of foraging strategies. Our results indicate that the distribution of competition amongst prey is of little significance, provided that intraspecific is stronger than the interspecific, and that it is typically preferable for a predator to adopt a foraging strategy that scales linearly with prey population sizes if it is alone. In an environment of multiple predator phenotypes, the least or most-focused predators are most likely to persist, dependent on the feeding parameter